Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Jackform
Mare
This is no my GoPro RPR/VDW method as I seem to be all over the place at present, and has to be a more logical approach. The 7.50 is the feature race on the UK mainland today.
Kempton (going forecast St to Slw showers) RP Verdict Prop Forward (5 tips 5 pundits oppose) A Kirby top track jockey.
7.50 Market expected 10.05 no's 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these.
2. 110/10 (3/1 mkt) Prop Forward 6 tips (D2) A Kirby up
3. 109/13 (9/1) Ayr Harbour 2 tips. M Appleby rates 16 with 2nd string Mohareb 99/18 (9/1) rates 10.
7. 107/13 (11/4) Nationwide 4 tips (C&DD2)
Comment: At early market odds I would dutch Prop Forward ans Nationwide.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
PROP FORWARD brushed aside his rivals with consummate ease last time out at Southwell and the son of Iffraaj can defy an absence and record a fourth career victory. If he fails to fire, Punchbowl Flyer may be able to pick up the pieces now 6lb lower than his last winning mark. Scot's Grace (RPR 104/18, C&D, 5/1 mkt) hit the line with plenty of conviction when third at Chester and she completes the shortlist.
Top Tip: PROP FORWARD (2)
Watch out for: PUNCHBOWL FLYER (4) (RPR 103/25, D7, 12/1 mkt)
Kempton (going forecast St to Slw showers) RP Verdict Prop Forward (5 tips 5 pundits oppose) A Kirby top track jockey.
7.50 Market expected 10.05 no's 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these.
2. 110/10 (3/1 mkt) Prop Forward 6 tips (D2) A Kirby up
3. 109/13 (9/1) Ayr Harbour 2 tips. M Appleby rates 16 with 2nd string Mohareb 99/18 (9/1) rates 10.
7. 107/13 (11/4) Nationwide 4 tips (C&DD2)
Comment: At early market odds I would dutch Prop Forward ans Nationwide.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
PROP FORWARD brushed aside his rivals with consummate ease last time out at Southwell and the son of Iffraaj can defy an absence and record a fourth career victory. If he fails to fire, Punchbowl Flyer may be able to pick up the pieces now 6lb lower than his last winning mark. Scot's Grace (RPR 104/18, C&D, 5/1 mkt) hit the line with plenty of conviction when third at Chester and she completes the shortlist.
Top Tip: PROP FORWARD (2)
Watch out for: PUNCHBOWL FLYER (4) (RPR 103/25, D7, 12/1 mkt)
gerry
Mare
Nice work jackform have plumped for nationwide my self as my bet of day likes track, running well, and only worry is from draw 1 as i am sure will be held up i would be happy if he gets in rail sitting fourth or fifth all way round.
Jackform
Mare
As the feature race of the day on the UK mainland Bri 3.40 checks out as an open contest on paper I have taken the second best on prize money Kem 7.50.
Kempton (going forecast St to Slw) J&T Gosden top track trainer. RP Verdict Royal Scandal (4 pundits agree 9 oppose).
7.50 Market expected 08.50 no's 1, 2, 6, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.
1. 94/9? (15/8 mkt) Royal Scandal 5 tips. LTO 40
2. 98/8? (9/4) Dignified 6 tips. J&T Gosden rates 24/L Dettori. LTO 21
6. 90/17 (7/2) Love Someone 2 tips M Stoute rates 13/RL Moore, with 2nd string Fine China 81/24 (22/1) rates 6, R Kingscote up. LTO 35.
Comment: None over-exposed and no D winners could be critical factors. Just go with dignified to have an interest in the circumstances.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
Dignified recorded an encouraging second here on debut, but a subsequent step up to 1m4f seemed too hot for her to handle. Therefore, preference is for the Sir Michael Stoute-trained LOVE SOMEONE, who kept on to get second on her most recent run over this C&D in June. She is a full-sister to the useful A Star Above, who came on for his first two runs to secure a double over this trip, so more could be to come from this progressive filly. Royal Scandal can also make her presence felt.
Top Tip: LOVE SOMEONE (6)
Watch out for: DIGNIFIED (2)
Kempton (going forecast St to Slw) J&T Gosden top track trainer. RP Verdict Royal Scandal (4 pundits agree 9 oppose).
7.50 Market expected 08.50 no's 1, 2, 6, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.
1. 94/9? (15/8 mkt) Royal Scandal 5 tips. LTO 40
2. 98/8? (9/4) Dignified 6 tips. J&T Gosden rates 24/L Dettori. LTO 21
6. 90/17 (7/2) Love Someone 2 tips M Stoute rates 13/RL Moore, with 2nd string Fine China 81/24 (22/1) rates 6, R Kingscote up. LTO 35.
Comment: None over-exposed and no D winners could be critical factors. Just go with dignified to have an interest in the circumstances.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
Dignified recorded an encouraging second here on debut, but a subsequent step up to 1m4f seemed too hot for her to handle. Therefore, preference is for the Sir Michael Stoute-trained LOVE SOMEONE, who kept on to get second on her most recent run over this C&D in June. She is a full-sister to the useful A Star Above, who came on for his first two runs to secure a double over this trip, so more could be to come from this progressive filly. Royal Scandal can also make her presence felt.
Top Tip: LOVE SOMEONE (6)
Watch out for: DIGNIFIED (2)
Jackform
Mare
Considered The Doncaster evening meeting and thought it quite odd that not many of the current top 20 seasonal yards and jockeys are competing. Given the fact that they are always complaining about the prize money on offer? Big fields, and I just thought what would VDW have made of them very simply with consistent runners at the shorter half of the early market.
Doncaster (going forecast G - GF) market odds from 10.30. R Hannon top track trainer.
5.40 Galliano 7 (5/2), That's Just Dandy 7 (11/2), Mercurious Power 9 (5/1)
6.10 Tipperary Moon 7 (9/1), Fresh Hope8 (2/1), Melody Of Life (17/2)
6.40 Kiss N Cuddle 4 (9/2), X J Rascal 7 (10/11), Impulsive Reaction 7 (10/1)
7.10 Jan Les Pins 3 (11/2), Lethal Nymph 10 (9/2), Quest For Fun 12 (5/2)
7.40 Sir Henry Cotton 4 (17/2), Spring B loom 9 (/2), Kape Moss 10 (9/1)
8.10 Animato 4 (9/2), Wynter Wilds 7 (4/1), Fair Star 11 (8/1)
8.40 Pledge Of Honour 6 (5/1), Jean Baptiste 6 (13/2), Matchless 10 (5/1)
Comment: How would you find bets. For me the first one named omitting the two at longer odss - Tipperary Moon and Sir Henry Cotton. Then a Fibonacci numbers sequence on the remaining five stop-at-a-win. That is 1-1-2-3-5 = 12 point risk
Doncaster (going forecast G - GF) market odds from 10.30. R Hannon top track trainer.
5.40 Galliano 7 (5/2), That's Just Dandy 7 (11/2), Mercurious Power 9 (5/1)
6.10 Tipperary Moon 7 (9/1), Fresh Hope8 (2/1), Melody Of Life (17/2)
6.40 Kiss N Cuddle 4 (9/2), X J Rascal 7 (10/11), Impulsive Reaction 7 (10/1)
7.10 Jan Les Pins 3 (11/2), Lethal Nymph 10 (9/2), Quest For Fun 12 (5/2)
7.40 Sir Henry Cotton 4 (17/2), Spring B loom 9 (/2), Kape Moss 10 (9/1)
8.10 Animato 4 (9/2), Wynter Wilds 7 (4/1), Fair Star 11 (8/1)
8.40 Pledge Of Honour 6 (5/1), Jean Baptiste 6 (13/2), Matchless 10 (5/1)
Comment: How would you find bets. For me the first one named omitting the two at longer odss - Tipperary Moon and Sir Henry Cotton. Then a Fibonacci numbers sequence on the remaining five stop-at-a-win. That is 1-1-2-3-5 = 12 point risk
Good morning to everyone,
After a tumultuous few years I have finally settled down again to trying to make further headway with the methods of VDW. I have noticed a few familiar names while browsing the threads - quite reassuring to know that VDW still arouses interest after all these years!
Anyway, I am going to stick my neck out with Anmaat in the 3.00 at Haydock today. I will qualify this by saying that I would be far happier with firmer ground for him, therefore I will not have a bet.
Good luck to all today.
After a tumultuous few years I have finally settled down again to trying to make further headway with the methods of VDW. I have noticed a few familiar names while browsing the threads - quite reassuring to know that VDW still arouses interest after all these years!
Anyway, I am going to stick my neck out with Anmaat in the 3.00 at Haydock today. I will qualify this by saying that I would be far happier with firmer ground for him, therefore I will not have a bet.
Good luck to all today.
G
goodlife,
I'm no vdw expert, but, I'd say your selection above is good. Price is a bit short for EW.
I'll watch with interest.
I'm no vdw expert, but, I'd say your selection above is good. Price is a bit short for EW.
I'll watch with interest.
Well done,
G
goodlife !
Jackform
Mare
Last post on this thread was some months ago for me, so I am using it to change topic rather than open a new one. This is from a Sports Forum letter some 14 months along the timeline from VDW's first letter Feb 2nd, 1978.
Look Before You leap In (VDW sports Forum May 3 1979)
“Considerable interest is apparently shown regarding lists of horses to follow...The first problem is how to select the right horses and readers may care to check the following before diving in at the deep end.”
“The price when a win comes along needs to be reasonable and to go a long way to achieving this I suggest restricting selections to good handicappers only. Note those which had two form placings in their last two outings in the previous season with one a win i.e., 21 31 12 etc, and also at least two wins over the period. If they run into a place, preferable second, first time out check their previous best performances. Any reliable method will do although many will find Split Seconds (Topspeed?) more convenient. The important thing is to establish proven ability and here a previous speed figure of 80+ (?) should give a reasonable base. Now check the running in the present race and judge prospects for the future. In my opinion it is a mistake to select a whole string of horses when half-a-dozen carefully selected animals will do the trick, it is an aspect that readers could consider with profit.”
(VDW states I selected six for the NH season which returned many times the national wage – unsubstantiated claim?)
My comment: Nothing to date regarding class rating figures, or the second rating system, or even Roushayd and trainers methods. In fact VDW set his stall out for what was to come in his first two letters to Sports Forum: - 'How about a swap shop?' F eb 2, 1978 answered by himself as G Hall Feb 16, 1978 'Flying Dutchman should set ball rolling.' It was something of a fraud from the very start.
Look Before You leap In (VDW sports Forum May 3 1979)
“Considerable interest is apparently shown regarding lists of horses to follow...The first problem is how to select the right horses and readers may care to check the following before diving in at the deep end.”
“The price when a win comes along needs to be reasonable and to go a long way to achieving this I suggest restricting selections to good handicappers only. Note those which had two form placings in their last two outings in the previous season with one a win i.e., 21 31 12 etc, and also at least two wins over the period. If they run into a place, preferable second, first time out check their previous best performances. Any reliable method will do although many will find Split Seconds (Topspeed?) more convenient. The important thing is to establish proven ability and here a previous speed figure of 80+ (?) should give a reasonable base. Now check the running in the present race and judge prospects for the future. In my opinion it is a mistake to select a whole string of horses when half-a-dozen carefully selected animals will do the trick, it is an aspect that readers could consider with profit.”
(VDW states I selected six for the NH season which returned many times the national wage – unsubstantiated claim?)
My comment: Nothing to date regarding class rating figures, or the second rating system, or even Roushayd and trainers methods. In fact VDW set his stall out for what was to come in his first two letters to Sports Forum: - 'How about a swap shop?' F eb 2, 1978 answered by himself as G Hall Feb 16, 1978 'Flying Dutchman should set ball rolling.' It was something of a fraud from the very start.
Last edited:
JennyK
Gelding
Jackform
I think the letter of 3 May 1979 was written primarily from a NH perspective. One sentence you didn't include was; "because I usually take an extended holiday in spring or early summer I do not make a list for the Flat". That said, the idea of identifying a list of horses to follow on the Flat on not wholly dissimilar lines to that VDW suggested has been and remains a mainstay of my approach.
Elsewhere, VDW implied that there were differences between NH and Flat that, for example with respect to ratings, require "minor modifications". I think there is a major difference - Flat horses in general progress (and eventually become regressive) differently to NH ones, especially chasers, who are often at their peak at an age when most Flat horses are regressive.
Taking that difference into consideration, on the Flat it is always good where a horse has, as VDW put it in the letter you partly reproduce, "proven ability". But with younger horses a degree of progression can reasonably be assumed. Thus when each winter I select a handful to follow the following year, with the younger ones I am happy to assume that a degree of improvement over and above the level of ability already proven can be expected.
With handicappers, I think VDW's advice about placings is largely irrelevant. While a sequence of placings is not uncommon, neither is a more "erratic" pattern as connections seek to prepare their horses for future wins by placings that may not be altogether unrelated to the wish for a lower OR. (Both Intrinsic Bond and Mountain Peak, who have run over the last few days, almost certainly have specific seasonal goals the achievements of which would not have been made more likely by winning relatively minor races at this stage.)
I think the winning selection Mick made at the weekend, Ready Freddie Go, together with Mid Minster in the same race, are good examples of the sort which one might follow on the lines of VDW's approach, though neither was on the list I made in December.
Both had won reasonable handicaps in 2022, and indeed in 2021. On Saturday both were running in races of similar or lower class to their last wins. Both were running off lower marks than their last wins for the first time since those wins. Both had on Saturday conditions over which they were proven. Assuming neither was yet regressive (and with RFG that was unlikely; more likely with M but he was progressive as a 6yo), they were prima facie possibles for Saturday's race which, in my view, they hadn't been in their earlier races this year.
Neither was a consistent horse in the crude VDW terms of last three placings, but the careers of both since their 2022 wins seem to have been to get them back to winning marks.
I think "fraud" is a little harsh re VDW. We are all but certain he wrote under his name and as "VDW", which is tricky, but hardly fraud. And the fact that as far as we know he never proved any of his claimed selections before the races gives reason for scepticism but again is hardly fraud. I am sceptical about his claims, but have learnt so much from his writings and nothing in any of the more recent "how I do it" books by the likes of Nick Mordin, Alan Potts or om Segal comes close to the range of ideas and possibilities the VDW material holds.
I think the letter of 3 May 1979 was written primarily from a NH perspective. One sentence you didn't include was; "because I usually take an extended holiday in spring or early summer I do not make a list for the Flat". That said, the idea of identifying a list of horses to follow on the Flat on not wholly dissimilar lines to that VDW suggested has been and remains a mainstay of my approach.
Elsewhere, VDW implied that there were differences between NH and Flat that, for example with respect to ratings, require "minor modifications". I think there is a major difference - Flat horses in general progress (and eventually become regressive) differently to NH ones, especially chasers, who are often at their peak at an age when most Flat horses are regressive.
Taking that difference into consideration, on the Flat it is always good where a horse has, as VDW put it in the letter you partly reproduce, "proven ability". But with younger horses a degree of progression can reasonably be assumed. Thus when each winter I select a handful to follow the following year, with the younger ones I am happy to assume that a degree of improvement over and above the level of ability already proven can be expected.
With handicappers, I think VDW's advice about placings is largely irrelevant. While a sequence of placings is not uncommon, neither is a more "erratic" pattern as connections seek to prepare their horses for future wins by placings that may not be altogether unrelated to the wish for a lower OR. (Both Intrinsic Bond and Mountain Peak, who have run over the last few days, almost certainly have specific seasonal goals the achievements of which would not have been made more likely by winning relatively minor races at this stage.)
I think the winning selection Mick made at the weekend, Ready Freddie Go, together with Mid Minster in the same race, are good examples of the sort which one might follow on the lines of VDW's approach, though neither was on the list I made in December.
Both had won reasonable handicaps in 2022, and indeed in 2021. On Saturday both were running in races of similar or lower class to their last wins. Both were running off lower marks than their last wins for the first time since those wins. Both had on Saturday conditions over which they were proven. Assuming neither was yet regressive (and with RFG that was unlikely; more likely with M but he was progressive as a 6yo), they were prima facie possibles for Saturday's race which, in my view, they hadn't been in their earlier races this year.
Neither was a consistent horse in the crude VDW terms of last three placings, but the careers of both since their 2022 wins seem to have been to get them back to winning marks.
I think "fraud" is a little harsh re VDW. We are all but certain he wrote under his name and as "VDW", which is tricky, but hardly fraud. And the fact that as far as we know he never proved any of his claimed selections before the races gives reason for scepticism but again is hardly fraud. I am sceptical about his claims, but have learnt so much from his writings and nothing in any of the more recent "how I do it" books by the likes of Nick Mordin, Alan Potts or om Segal comes close to the range of ideas and possibilities the VDW material holds.
mick
Sire
I like this thinking and experienced simular myself. I learnt little from VDW but plenty because of him.
Jackform
Mare
The Old Newton Cup beloved of old VDW accolytes.
Haydock (going forecast G) Market odds from 07.55.
3.15 Early market expected no's 12, 6, 10, 8, 15, 7 and 2, 4, 5, 13 indicating an open contest.
12. La Yakel (9/2 mkt) W Haggas 23% past month/D Tudhope good track record.
10. Cumulonimbus (10/1. R Kingscote up top track jockey.
6. Sheer Rocks (11/1)
4. Gassee. W Haggas 23%/A Faragher (3) 15% past month
MY comment dutch 12. 10. 6. Saver on Gassee?
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
In a wide-open event the marginal preference is for the unexposed LA YAKEL, who makes his belated seasonal return having been progressive as a three-year-old. The son of Time Test was last seen filling fourth place in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket in October and a reproduction of that level of form would give him a big chance here. Cumulonimbus is going in the right direction and has to be respected following his C&D win last month. Toshizou should not be underestimated now up in trip, while, in contrast, Sir Rumi should appreciate dropping back in distance. Others to note are Sheer Rocks, Maksud and Teumessias Fox.
Top Tip: LA YAKEL (12)
Watch out for: CUMULONIMBUS (10)
Haydock (going forecast G) Market odds from 07.55.
3.15 Early market expected no's 12, 6, 10, 8, 15, 7 and 2, 4, 5, 13 indicating an open contest.
12. La Yakel (9/2 mkt) W Haggas 23% past month/D Tudhope good track record.
10. Cumulonimbus (10/1. R Kingscote up top track jockey.
6. Sheer Rocks (11/1)
4. Gassee. W Haggas 23%/A Faragher (3) 15% past month
MY comment dutch 12. 10. 6. Saver on Gassee?
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
In a wide-open event the marginal preference is for the unexposed LA YAKEL, who makes his belated seasonal return having been progressive as a three-year-old. The son of Time Test was last seen filling fourth place in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket in October and a reproduction of that level of form would give him a big chance here. Cumulonimbus is going in the right direction and has to be respected following his C&D win last month. Toshizou should not be underestimated now up in trip, while, in contrast, Sir Rumi should appreciate dropping back in distance. Others to note are Sheer Rocks, Maksud and Teumessias Fox.
Top Tip: LA YAKEL (12)
Watch out for: CUMULONIMBUS (10)
Nellsman
Colt
Morning
Jackform,
like you I think it's a pretty open contest. The horse that makes most appeal to me is Maksud. He went up in class LTO at Ascot and ran well enough from a very poor draw and has actually dropped a couple of pounds in weight in the process. In monetary terms here he is going up in class, but I reckon the Ascot race was a classier field than today. I think he is still an unexposed young horse that is open to improvement and I'll have a bet on him today.
Good luck if you're having a go.
Jackform,like you I think it's a pretty open contest. The horse that makes most appeal to me is Maksud. He went up in class LTO at Ascot and ran well enough from a very poor draw and has actually dropped a couple of pounds in weight in the process. In monetary terms here he is going up in class, but I reckon the Ascot race was a classier field than today. I think he is still an unexposed young horse that is open to improvement and I'll have a bet on him today.
Good luck if you're having a go.
DuckandDive
Mare
Have posted up on another thread, thought I'd chuck it on this one too.
As VDW intimated the objective is not to find the winner of the race, I focussed on finding the range where the winner is likely to come from.
I'd likely dutch the short-listed ones, (narrowed the field within a field). I'd lean towards the 10 year old Euchen Glen @20.00 on Betfair if I had to choose one.
As VDW intimated the objective is not to find the winner of the race, I focussed on finding the range where the winner is likely to come from.
I'd likely dutch the short-listed ones, (narrowed the field within a field). I'd lean towards the 10 year old Euchen Glen @20.00 on Betfair if I had to choose one.
Bream
Yearling
I don't usually analyse races in this way but I'll try doing it from what I think may be, at least partly, a VDW perspective.
In the Lancashire Oaks I find it hard to get away from the first 2 in the market. Mimikyu has the edge for me with Rob Havlin back on board and it's lto performance reads better as I see it. Aristia is the only one dropping in class but the distance has to be a worry along with it's lto performance.
In the Old Newton Cup every horse is going up in class. Scampi, Sheer Rocks, La Yakel, Gaasee and Cumulonimbus are on my original short list. Of those La Yakel has the highest ability rating but can I forgive it's lto performance? Sheer Rocks is an interesting horse, an improved performance and eased towards the finish lto on the back of a good performance previously. Scampi, I cannot completely rule out. It's last win at York and a slight easing of it's mark make me wary of discarding it. Gaassee has not shown much in it's recent form but it did finish third in this race last year off a higher mark and a lower weight, so, again I find it hard to discount it. Cumulonimbus has made all to win its last 2 races but in slow times. This is a bigger field today so the pace will probably be quicker. Can it cope with that?
I'm currently re-evaluating the methods I use on a daily basis so no bets at all for me at the moment until I'm happy with what I am doing.
In the Lancashire Oaks I find it hard to get away from the first 2 in the market. Mimikyu has the edge for me with Rob Havlin back on board and it's lto performance reads better as I see it. Aristia is the only one dropping in class but the distance has to be a worry along with it's lto performance.
In the Old Newton Cup every horse is going up in class. Scampi, Sheer Rocks, La Yakel, Gaasee and Cumulonimbus are on my original short list. Of those La Yakel has the highest ability rating but can I forgive it's lto performance? Sheer Rocks is an interesting horse, an improved performance and eased towards the finish lto on the back of a good performance previously. Scampi, I cannot completely rule out. It's last win at York and a slight easing of it's mark make me wary of discarding it. Gaassee has not shown much in it's recent form but it did finish third in this race last year off a higher mark and a lower weight, so, again I find it hard to discount it. Cumulonimbus has made all to win its last 2 races but in slow times. This is a bigger field today so the pace will probably be quicker. Can it cope with that?
I'm currently re-evaluating the methods I use on a daily basis so no bets at all for me at the moment until I'm happy with what I am doing.
Jackform
Mare
At the risk of being ostracised let's go with the flow just three simple Van der Wheil style assessments to 'narrow the field' with a very basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' where the 8.05 is a 'key' race and none have been 'subject to other consideration', or even whether 'there is a winner in the race not of the race'. If you understand all that VDW speak you will know what to do to decide on the best bet in each race.
Newmarket (going forecast G some GF) Market odds from 08.20. C Appleby top track trainer with runners 7.30, 8.05.
7.30 Royal Symbol (11/4), Ziryab (11/4), Like A Tiger (15/2).
8.04 Star Guest (9/4), Spohia's Starlight (7/2), Peony (6/1)
8.40 Conquistador (1/1), Isle Of Lismore (5/1), Skallywag Bay (7/1)
Newmarket (going forecast G some GF) Market odds from 08.20. C Appleby top track trainer with runners 7.30, 8.05.
7.30 Royal Symbol (11/4), Ziryab (11/4), Like A Tiger (15/2).
8.04 Star Guest (9/4), Spohia's Starlight (7/2), Peony (6/1)
8.40 Conquistador (1/1), Isle Of Lismore (5/1), Skallywag Bay (7/1)