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Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil

hi chesham remember peter braddocks excellent book he did not back in handicaps going by his examples..
 
nagwa said:
hi chesham remember peter braddocks excellent book he did not back in handicaps going by his examples..
Click to expand...

Hi Nagwa

He did have handicap race examples, here a few

York 5.20 o3/09/03

Lingfield 3.55 06/01/04



Wolverhampton 4.20 19/01/04

Cheltenham 2.55 14/11/03

"As with all handicaps, the recommended approach is to view the race from the official ratings aspect to see who holds a favourable or unfavourable rating"

He started by eliminating Wahiba Sands on a rating of 145, had been beaten from this level in 3 of his 4 last races, although he had won off from a higher mark it was 2 years ago


Kadarran had finished behind Wahiba Sands so was eliminated as on the same terms


Left Two Probables Cenkos and Latalomne who had raced against each other in May


Braddock chose Cenkos because even with a weight advantage that Latalomne had he felt it would not be enough. He gave a good reason “ The fallacy often found in this line of argument is that losers tend to be excused while winners are seldom credited, because it is not known wether they could have won by more if they had required to do so

Timeform's view of the race where the two had previously met



WARWICK Saturday, 10 May 2003 FIRM

8.00 Willsford Warwick Chase (B) (Turf) 2m 110y

£13,975 (5yo+)



A better class of runner than might have been expected and, with a strong pace always on the cards, Cenkos lowered his own course record (set when winning the 2001 renewal of this race). CENKOS (FR) didn't have to be anywhere near his best to take advantage of a drop in class and win this for the second time, shaking off the attentions of the placed horses after 3 out; effective on any ground, he's a high-class 2m chaser on his day, as he showed when winning the Tingle Creek at Sandown last season (also placed in last 2 runnings of Queen Mother Champion Chase). LATALOMNE (USA) has produced more ordinary efforts than good ones over the last season or so and, in being readily brushed aside by Cenkos in receipt of 6 lb, was again a long way below his best.


Best Run looks to be
CHELTENHAM Wednesday, 13 March 2002 SOFT (Old Course)
2.35 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (A) (Turf) 2m
£127,600 (5yo+)



Cenkos won 7/1

Good Luck

Chesham
 
thanks chesham great post.. which book covers those examples.. i have the peter braddock book that covers some of vdw examples the race wayward lad versus earls brig 1985 /86 i do not have the form book for that nh season.. thanks chesham, taff,,
 
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nagwa said:
thanks chesham great post.. which book covers those examples.. i have the peter braddock book that covers some of vdw examples the race wayward lad versus earls brig 1985 /86 i do not have the form book for that nh season.. thanks chesham, taff,,
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Hi Nagwa

I have that edition of Peter Braddocks Book as well

He has this to say

Earlier Wayward Lad had comprehensively beaten Earls Brig (Receiving 4lbs by 22.5 lengths ) when they both made their seasonal debut in a 3m 100 yd chase at Wetherby.

On this form Wayward Lad would seem clearly superior. However when last seasons form is taken into account, when our three probables were all at the height of their form and fitness, it can be seen there is little to separate them

He goes on to say at Cheltenham Forgive and Forget had beaten Earls Brig by 4 lengths and Wayward Lad trailing by 14 lengths

While at Liverpool on the fast tight turning Mildmay Course had reversed this form, beating Earls Brig by 3 lengths (Level weights)

Braddock goes on to say that between these three runners at level weights was obviously likely to be small

However, the entry conditions of this race prescribed that Earls Brig should receive a weight concession of 12lbs & 8lbs from forgive and Forget and Wayward Lad

Good Luck

Chesham
 
thanks chesham, i do not have the form book that covers vdw examples for the 85/86 season would like to check aherlow ten plus, pikes peak, tophams taverns.. do you know if peter braddock covered any other vdw examples in his books thanks chesham excellent posts.
 
Won yesterday 3 pts (£30) at 6/4 = +4.5, debit 2pts (rounded up from 1.5), bank 201.5pts

Newmarket 3.10 with the best overall win percentage in the field.

Court Pastoral up 1lb 4 of 11 -1.25L Chantilly 12f soft.

Court Pastoral is the sole qualifier according to the 'rules', although it doesn't look a one-horse race and carries the 3pt (£30) bet.
 
formtheory said:
Is it worth a read then?

May have to invest in a copy!
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Hi Paul

it is one of those books that deserves its place in anyones racing Library.

He uses the same Formula as VDW Form-Fitness-Class- Conditions ( Distance, Going, Weight, Courses, Draw, Jockeyship etc)

But unlike the limited wordage from VDW, in the 2004 edition over 300 pages including in depth analysis of individual race to explain how the formula is applied. Unlike VDW, no allegoric wordage to fathom out, no ambiguity and probably the reason why there has never been any Forums that have had a any heated discussions as to who is right or wrong.

Class is summed up as follows

Class can have a most powerful and modifying influence on selection. In terms of Horse racing, class can be defined as the quality of competition a horse races against.

For selection purposes

A horse when raised in class has to improve upon its known ability and form

A horse in the same class has to reproduce form equivalent at least to what it has shown in that class

A horse lowered in class has merely to repeat its normal level of ability as shown in the higher class to have a winning chance. Class, therefore, in the selection assumes a negative, neutral or positive character

Not to disimilar to VDW
Charles R. Gibson LI.D., F.R.S.E. says in his book Modern Conceptions of Electricity . . . "There can be few who do not know that an electrical circuit consists of a positive and negative and that it is the positive wire that carries power."

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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