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    AR

RaceIQ Explained, Part 3: The Finish

ARAZI91 ARAZI91 ,
The "trainer intent" i'm referring to is as i've already described one where a horse might be put into a cl4 race and is considered to be a 20/1 chance, misses the break, held up and runs into enough trouble in running before giving up.
For all that the horse might have still run to somewher close to it's mark but gets a couple of pounds back from the handicapper, other scenarios are available via going too fast early over a distance too far etc
The lads on the AOR thread will all agree this tactic is used by many trainers that we've observed over the 5 years or so we've used the method, Goldie, Easterby etc are the more obvious ones.

I asked if "Times" might somehow be a supporting factor but feel you've already answered that point and others that has help me to accept the logic that there won't be any corroborative evidence worth reaching for.

On a more general point i feel there's the danger that threads are started with many different subjects that never actually go anywhere in terms of putting them into practice, was it VDW that told us to stick to what's realistic.
Thanks again.
 
tacker said:
On a more general point i feel there's the danger that threads are started with many different subjects that never actually go anywhere in terms of putting them into practice, was it VDW that told us to stick to what's realistic.
Thanks again.
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T tacker
Sorry you feel that way about the forum.
Message received pal. (y)
 
Not something i usually bother with ie irish racing but the 8.30 dundalk...CHERRY HILL GIRL who is dropping by 24lbs from a average official ratings from lto.
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I got a notification for it T tacker based on prizemoney (x2) .

Whilst I haven't looked at any of the races on the day of her last run, it does look like high numbers dominated that day.

She was drawn 8/20, with the first four home: 20,22,15,17,18.

I'm generally wary of horses that carried that amount of overweight LTO, unless they have found a small field race, so will pass it over.
 
MySportsAI said:
All good points, there is also the question of whether they are correlated with each other. A simple but good example of this would be trainer strike rate and sire strike rate. The better trainers tend to house the better horses and so using both is somewhat akin to double counting. I have found that when creating ensemble models (thats putting the outputs of 2 or more models together and creating a supe model so to speak) one is better off checking the correlation of the model outputs themselves. So a practical example combining 2 models that both involve pace would probably be inferior to one that combines pace and another that involves breeding. The wisdom of Crowds dictates that the crowd must be contrasting in their view or skill
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MySportsAI MySportsAI
Agree Mark with the multicollinearity / orthoganility aspects
A good example is when your modeling jockeys - a jockey's skill level (measured by long term win % rates for eg) is at best a measure of "opportunity" - the win % is highly correlated to the average skill level of the horses trainer and therefore average quality/class of ride.
When you strip that out you get a more truthful measure at the margin and you find out that the true skill level of say the top 25 riders has a relatively small range and does not reflect the gaps or distance between the artificially enhanced win % rates.
My auld granny who was also a hardened gambler used to have a saying when she was modeling her rations during the war for a family of 22
that included a couple of kids that she took in that had lost their home and parents to the Nazi bombers on the Clyde-side
She would often look up from the ration book and say
"Multicollinearity can lead you down the River Clyde without a fucking paddle"
and then would add
"Orthoganility can often lead to what some men get in a massage parlor - extreme relief and very occasionally a "happy ending""
She was a wise old Bird but in later life had a penchant for backing Pat Eddery and John Reid doubles and trebles across the card.

Whilst i often follow the principles of The Wisdom Of The Crowds, i also used to like to venture into territory that could be termed "The Madness Of Crowds"
especially in those Glaswegian pubs that an outsider might term "dangerous"
 
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Outlander said:
What kind of final furlong sectional uplift do we give this one ?
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gnocchi🎙️💫 (@Niyazi19940601) on X

Şüphesiz ki Türk at yarışları tarihinin en gösterişli sprintlerinden biri budur:)
x.com x.com
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O Outlander
:) that's a special case and is known in the game as a "milkshake" upgrade (in the region of 60lb +)
Usually only ever seen within a distance of the last 50 yards or less and the direct result of certain types of performance enhancing "magic carrots"
 
ARAZI91 said:
O Outlander
:) that's a special case and is known in the game as a "milkshake" upgrade (in the region of 60lb +)
Usually only ever seen within a distance of the last 50 yards or less and the direct result of certain types of performance enhancing "magic carrots"
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Responded well to the full Clint Eastwood drive, never done anything since.
Here’s another classic this one must be 80lb uplift
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palpa (@palpa78z) on X

@Niyazi19940601 Bunu asla unutamıyorum bide 5 6 boy geç çıkmıştı
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