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RACECOURSES

I have been trying to put something together to hopefully find horses that are well in, so this is a new effort from me this was finished today and tried on the Carlisle 4:00 i was pleased to have the winner Red Happy, so hoping it will continue, the horse well in is the horse with the highest positive score.

10 March 2025
STRATFORD 3:20
Balhambar 12-0-10.61
Golden Maverick 11-91.44
Moon Chime 11-8-71.11
Maasai Mara 11-7-71.83
Schmilsson 11-63.44
Hara Kiri 11-5-0.17
Mister Wilson 11-2-68.67
Klic Boum 10-7-64.50
 
It's trying to find ways that may not have been tried before I know I'm not going to find the golden egg, but trying to find an edge is what I'm after, sometimes I think I may have found something but then turn out not to be consistent, consistency is what I'm looking for, and I'm hoping my latest effort could be it I like the look of it but can as always only hope
 
You may be better trying them all at the same time to see what ones are working over a period of time.
I'm sure there were times where one would out perform the others then bubble bursts and doesn't and one of the others may perform better it's worth keeping them all going just to find out.
 
Having looked at all my efforts to date ive decided to run with this one its one i put most work into i will run with this for a while to see how it goes. quick question what would you say would be a fair amount of races to try before deciding to stick or bust.


12 March 2025
WOLVERHAMPTON 4:55
Spartan Arrow 9-1190
Michaela's Boy 9-1198
Rhythm N Hooves 9-8110
Grace Angel 9-793
Almaty Star 9-7110
Sports Coach 9-798
Kings Merchant 9-6117
Lethal Nymph 9-4101
Mon Na Slieve 9-170
 
13 March 2025
CHELTENHAM 4:00
Bob Olinger 11-10148
Buddy One 11-10112
Crambo 11-10139
Franciscan Rock 11-10144
Ga Law 11-1055
Gowel Road 11-10147
Home By The Lee 11-10142
Langer Dan 11-10135
Lucky Place 11-10157
Mystical Power 11-10142
Nemean Lion 11-10158
Rocky's Diamond 11-10115
Teahupoo 11-10134
The Wallpark 11-10143
 
Not sure what figures are worked out but in all level race above twmills twmills i just cant see how teaupoo is that low to so many other horses.
 
I just dont think it will work how your doing it twmills twmills if your using the rating that ts give across from horse today like teaupoo 75 and bobs 96 they just dont work teaupoo run in little four runner crawl last time and racxe before won in canter so times not relevent in them but then look at its two cheltenham times in this race last two years tells differant story. where as bob olingers best time was 4 years ago and he has nothing at 3miles.
I would have teaupoo miles clear and at worse 5 points clear and thast with bobs heavy ground run over 2 half miles. and same withnemeaon lion who i had as good thing last time out but thats still behind teaupoo and at 2miles 3 fur. And lucky place looks way behind again and thats shorter.
lucky place and nemean lion are improving but still figures look way wrong.
I think if you gave some how your working them out loads people would help see where its wrong.

Same with one the day before kings merchant ahd good speed figure with 3 firm ground runs lately but rubbish at wolverhampton .
where as the winner you had way below had better wolvherhampton time figure and good ground figures so i just think taking it from rp single figure next to horse dosnt work.
 
Thanks will see how today's go and will upload spreadsheet will take any help I can thank you, I'm no maths expert and everything is calculated so simple if I can get the help to approve but still not over complicate it will be appreciated
 
If I do include TS in the rating then should I take the best TS the horse has run, and by doing so would I take it as a raw figure or is it changed to account for weight
 
yeah but they calulate it with out looking at track and ground so would look at the form and take the ts times maybe best 3 that suit todays condictions then divide by 3 and not go back to far which you need do for bob olinger, teaupoo both good times where in this race so they will need to stay and stay really well to beat it the others we mentioned
 
BY removing TS altogether the ratings was

13 March 2025
CHELTENHAM 4:00
Bob Olinger 11-10100
Buddy One 11-1077
Crambo 11-1072
Franciscan Rock 11-1087
Ga Law 11-1055
Gowel Road 11-1086
Home By The Lee 11-1094
Langer Dan 11-1075
Lucky Place 11-1095
Mystical Power 11-1071
Nemean Lion 11-1085
Rocky's Diamond 11-1074
Teahupoo 11-1096
The Wallpark 11-1077
 
Ive looked at the 7:00 at Newcastle this time not included TS in the rating reading what Gerry said made me think, lets see then if it works out any better.

13 March 2025
NEWCASTLE 7:00
Mr Baloo 9-1199
Vibrato 9-1175
So Quiet 9-886
Brazilian Rose 9-786
Abruzzo Mia 9-580
Kit Gabriel 9-478
Swiss Ace 9-490
Starliner 9-276
Mereside Madness 9-2110
Outrun The Storm 9-294
 
14 March 2025

CHELTENHAM 2:00
Daddy Long Legs 12-077
Absurde 11-878
Fils d'Oudairies 11-787
Ethical Diamond 11-576
Pinot Gris 11-5107
Hansard 11-490
Kargese 11-3125
Ndaawi 11-2105
Cracking Rhapsody 10-13101
McLaurey 10-12114
Our Champ 10-11100
Valgrand 10-1096
Lark In The Mornin 10-8105
Irish Panther 10-4123
Spirit d'Aunou 10-3107
Norman Fletcher 10-3103


CHELTENHAM 4:00
Ahoy Senor 11-1075
Banbridge 11-1081
Corbetts Cross 11-1086
Galopin Des Champs 11-10101
Gentlemansgame 11-1072
Inothewayurthinkin 11-1075
Monty's Star 11-1085
Royale Pagaille 11-1074
The Real Whacker 11-1068
 
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