RACECOURSES

[twmills]

With what ive removed and what I have added thought I migh try again over the jumps so gone for two races at Sandown

01/02/2025

SANDOWN 2:00
Martator 12-0	122
Gunsight Ridge 11-6	107
Solo 11-6	122
Etalon 10-13	119
Classic Maestro 10-8	129
Dr T J Eckleburg 10-2	106

SANDOWN 3:07
Shoot First 12-0	99
Goshen 11-7	115
Red Dirt Road 11-2	109
Henri The Second 11-2	106
Flight Deck 11-1	101
Deep Cave 10-13	104
Major Fortune 10-8	126
Dartmoor Pirate 10-7	86
Hauraki Gulf 10-5	130
What A Johnny 10-3	95
Idefix De Ciergues 10-2	89
Gaye Legacy 10-2	120
Lucky One 10-2	106

 

[twmills]

02/02/25

LINGFIELD 1:32
Legendary Day 10-0	97
Zoran 9-13	107
Aced It 9-13	98
Cinnodin 9-9	97
Haaland 9-6	94
Moel Arthur 9-4	92
The Craftymaster 9-3	78
Abraaj 9-3	79
Sun Dancer Girl 9-1	90

LINGFIELD 3:45
One Night Stand 9-10	101
Mc Loven 9-9	106
Night On Earth 9-8	102
Blazes Boylan 9-6	98
Bang On The Bell 9-6	95
Dashing Harry 9-3	93
G'Day Mate 9-3	94
Rainyniteingeorgia 9-1	81

 

[twmills]

Been working on something new to try dont know if any good or not this will be first race

03/02/2025
WOLV 6:30
Rosenpur 9-9	84
Antiphon 9-9	86
Level Up 9-7	81
Bibendum 9-6	77
Buraback 9-5	79
Wedgewood 9-5	68
Gustav Graves 9-4	85
Nelson Gay 9-4	80
Pop Dancer 9-3	80

 

[twmills]

I have refined this now and hopefully will work better

04 February 2025
MKT RASEN 3:45
Tanganyika 12-1	73
Universal Folly 12-0	73
Peejaybee 11-12	77
Yes Day 11-10	68
Concetto 11-8	71
Heard That 11-7	75
High Moon 11-5	69
Jessie Lightfoot 10-8	60

 

[twmills]

Not doing too well at the moment still hoping to get something together though not giving up just yet. Another attempt trying something different

04 February 2025
NEWCASTLE 6:00
One More Dream 9-9	114
Brian The Snail 9-9	131
Nazca 9-8	111
Biplane 9-6	123
Bellagio Man 9-5	118
Beneficiary 9-4	133

 

[rbtblb82]

Same for me, I've not done well recently, and I was sulking yesterday it went so bad for me. There's been a fair few favourites coming in the last two/three weeks, so I've gone against what I usually do and backed favourites in acca's, but at the same time, a fair few odds on horses haven't won, and every time I need a favourite for a good return, it's useless. I'm having a couple of days off then going back to my usual method of bigger odds.

 

[twmills]

I did find that by using last win OR instead of last race OR which I having been using, works a little better but at moment I will also take a couple of days to look into what I can do, I feel like I'm almost there, but at the same time something missing which I hope to find. I no whatever rating method anyone comes up with will not always find the winner, and I don't expect too, but I do want the rating method to hopefully be more consistent

 

[twmills]

Was not going to put anything up been trying things all day hoping to come up with a way to rate a race this is now my latest effort, I liked the look of this not tested on any race this is will be first time hope all goes well, we can only see.

06 February 2025
SOUTHWELL 6:30
Al Suil Eile 9-9	86
I Can't Believe 9-9	90
Down To The Kid 9-7	85
Light Up Our Stars 9-6	85
Retraction 9-6	84
First Dynasty 9-6	85
Northern Cracksman 9-5	89
Create 9-4	85
Mykonos St John 9-3	84
Ring Of Gold 9-1	81

 

[twmills]

Found i had made an error in last race and by changing it i ended up with joint top rated with I CAN'T BELIEVE, and NORTHERN CRACKSMAN which won the race, so still hoping that this might have something going for it, going to have a go at jump racing see how we do, I am looking to find something that works for both flat and jumps.

07 February 2025
KEMPTON 3:25
Crebilly 12-0	66
Sans Bruit 11-10	61
Neon Moon 11-8	65
Lounge Lizard 11-7	64
Galop De Chasse 11-6	62
Issar d'Airy 11-5	63
Flegmatik 11-5	64
Straw Fan Jack 11-4	61
El Rio 11-2	65
Triple Trade 10-12	60
Equinus 10-10	58

 

[twmills]

OK I have come up with another method but I am running out of ideas and have taken it as far as i can when it comes to numbers to form the ratings. Again this will be the first time using this method, I have also been reading about dutching and think i might go that way when it comes to betting, so i have decided to dutch my top three even if the top rated is well clear as it is in this race I have rated.

08 February 2025
WOLV 5:15
We Never Stop 9-9	69
Michaela's Boy 9-7	82
Hiya Maite 9-6	66
Almaty Star 9-0	58
Airman 8-13	42
Existent 8-12	63
One Night Stand 8-12	68
Night On Earth 8-10	56
Dark Kestrel 8-7	50

 

[twmills]

Almost makes you feel like giving up to put in so much effort and end up with nothing for it

 

[markfinn]

Almost makes you feel like giving up to put in so much effort and end up with nothing for it

What are using as your ratings

 

[twmills]

I will try to give an example from my first ratings I tried for its these I have been trying to improve, and for me it has to be simple I cant do complicated when it comes to excel, my basic knowledge of maths is add, subtract, divide, and times.

First I gave each class a base score, but as i write this i am wondering if all should start with a base score of 100.
Horse WE NEVER STOP,last OR 92, ran in a class 2 which i gave a base score of 91.67, class 2 class band is 86-110. my first sum is Base score 91.67+(last OR 92 - lowest class band 86)/(highest class ban110-lowest class band 86)then x 10 which give me a score of 94, next might be a mistake because I have been looking at ways i can rate form, and have not found anything simple as yet so I use fineform and add to the 94, in this case 5 wass added giving 99. next weight last time weigt in lbs was 122 and the weight carrying now 135, subtract the difference 13 the difference is divided by lbs per length the race was over 5f and the lbs per length was 3.35. 13/3.35 is 3.88 this is added to the 99 to give me a final rating. WE NEVER STOP SCORED 103.

Thats where I started and have been trying to improve on without too much success. Simple Maths, and for me it has to be simple.

 

[markfinn]

I wish I could claim back all the hours that I have spent in the futile science of trying to perfect ratings, that said it’s a great way to understand aspects of horse abilities. The “ KISS “ acronym is a great sign post to have in mind before starting most creative projects, for most ideas if you cannot find a way to explain the end method easily it’s rarely successful or easy to use. Why not just start with the OR then look to build on that figure with salient facts - can it get the Distance / the type of Course - is the stable healthy - is the Jockey acceptable to the horse and up to the task …….

 

[twmills]

Baseed on Official Ratings only

11 Feb 2025

AYR 2:10
Artic Row 12-0	92
Brayhill 11-12	86
Walk On Quest 11-9	100
Overcourt 11-7	18
Step Above 11-5	71
As Tears Go By 11-0	59
Grand Voyage 10-13	87
Duty Calls 10-12	87

WOLV 8:00
Big Time Rascal 9-9	36
Maharajas Express 9-9	53
Basholo 9-9	55
So Obsessed 9-8	56
Papa Don't Preach 9-7	61
Apache Star 9-7	43
State Of Madness 9-6	39
Second Collection 9-2	55
Himawari 9-1	31
Spanish Angel 8-11	53
Gypsy Nation 8-11	37

 

[markfinn]

Baseed on Official Ratings only

11 Feb 2025

AYR 2:10
Artic Row 12-0	92
Brayhill 11-12	86
Walk On Quest 11-9	100
Overcourt 11-7	18
Step Above 11-5	71
As Tears Go By 11-0	59
Grand Voyage 10-13	87
Duty Calls 10-12	87

WOLV 8:00
Big Time Rascal 9-9	36
Maharajas Express 9-9	53
Basholo 9-9	55
So Obsessed 9-8	56
Papa Don't Preach 9-7	61
Apache Star 9-7	43
State Of Madness 9-6	39
Second Collection 9-2	55
Himawari 9-1	31
Spanish Angel 8-11	53
Gypsy Nation 8-11	37

Walk On - winner

 

[Michael231]

Twmills
Do you find it works better with higher class races where the grades are wider.

 

[twmills]

You could be right still trying different methods the two races I am giving here are slightly rated different from the last ones.

12 February 2025
WETHERBY 3:40
Theformismighty 11-10	110
Hurricane Bay 11-8	115
Taras Halls 11-0	118
Getaway Drumlee 10-13	117
New Order 10-11	107
Kilta 10-11	104
Stringtoyourbow 10-9	105
Rumoursareflying 10-5	103

WETHERBY 4:13
Hardy Du Seuil 12-0	117
Persian Time 11-13	117
West To The Bridge 11-12	125
Pinot Rouge 11-11	118
Range 11-10	113
American Sniper 11-10	127
Pigeon House 11-10	117
Herbiers 11-8	117
Bertie's Ballet 11-7	108
Il Va De Soi 11-7	121
Balboa 11-2	105
Rich Spirit 11-1	94
Highlands Legacy 11-0	104

 

[Michael231]

Is this way with the weight or without as have been using similar myself with class for each course then add or deduct with each race which gives a total.
Two races I did yesterday both winners, wal on quest was one and a work in progress was the other, but still playing around with it with either add or deduct weight and minus distance behind if not the winner.

 

[twmills]

At the moment without weight, adding weight is what I'm thinking about next