• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Punchestown Festival

rbtblb82 said:
I normally do a thread for each big festival, I've just been busy with work and gardening atm, but still been betting (had two really good Saturdays in a row, fair bit up for the last month so happy and it's been quite good racing the last two weeks).

I put a UK horses doubles bet on Tuesday, I put all the UK horses in @ 15:05 and all the UK horses in @ 15:40 and played £1 E/W doubles, I cheered the horses home and thought I'd hit a 50/1 and 11/1 double, only, somehow I missed Buy Some Time (R. Mike Smith) in my bet so didn't get the 50/1 winner @ 15:05, I was gutted. I did get a good return from my Mullins bet though, although, I had to put 15 horses in but good job I did because his 3rd string horses won two races.

My big double today is Declan Queally - Mozzies Sister 10/1 @ 16:50 + Rocky's Diamond 11/1 @ 18:00 (I try to always have at least 1 big double/trixie that doesn't have any Mullins, Elliot, Cromwell etc. horses in it).

I've also got Jonjo O'Neill x3 horses, Anthony Honey Ball x2 horses and Fergal O'Brien x2 horses, just to cover the UK raiders.

Good luck for today.
Click to expand...

Somebody on this forum here, backed that 50/1 horse. Unbelievable!

Punchestown

Peerless Punchestown, as the catchy slogan (not) used to have it, is upon us. It marks the end of one season and the start of another, and caters for both types of horses. Today is one of the lower key days attendance wise, but the quality seems fine to me. There are a couple of Mullins...
talkinghorses.co.uk
 
quiet gambler said:
Thursday

3.40

This is my favourite race at the Punchestown Festival. The La Touche Cup, a cross country race. I like the cross country races. They seem to have specialists for these races, e.g. Singing Banjo.

I'm backing a runner that took this race a couple of years ago. Singing Banjo took this race last Punchestown Festival at 28/1, following up from his 2021 win at 33/1. I'm hoping this runner replicates this. I put £5 E/W Vital Island 12/1. This yard also had the one two, in the cross country race on Tuesday.

I also put £5 E/W Subset 100/1. Course winner.

On form with Vital Island, held in 3 races. One at Punchestown and two at Lingstown.

Form here.

Beaten 18 and a half lengths at level weights behind Vital Island, Lingstown, 9th March 2025.


Beaten 17 and a half lengths by Vital Island, Lingstown, 12th March 2023.


Beaten 14 lengths by Vital Island, Subset being 3rd and Vital Island being 2nd, but Vital Island conceding 5lb at Punchestown, April 25th, 2023. After adjusting at 1lb a length, Vital Island would have been in front of Subset, by 19 lengths at level weights.


So Vital Island has met 3 times with Subset in these races and finished 18 and a half lengths in front of Subset, the last encounter. Vital Island finished 17 and a half lengths in front of Subset, another encounter.

The race at Punchestown after adjusting at 1lb a length, Vital Island would be 19 lengths in front of Subset.

Yard excel, in this kind of race. They have took 2 of the last 5 runnings.

Subset to run well. Has E/W chance.
Click to expand...
Vital Island finished 4th. I backed Vital Island 12/1 E/W on Betfair, 4 places. Subset finished last of 9 finishers.


More interesting form analysis here!

So Vital Island finishes 17 and a half lengths in front of Subset in one race, Vital Island finishes 18 and a half lengths in front of Subset in another race. After adjusting weights, in another race would have been 19 lengths in front of Subset, at level weights.

In the La Touche Cup at Punchestown, Vital Island finished 27 and a half lengths in front of Subset, but Subset was conceding 7lbs. After adjusting weights at a 1lb a length, Vital Island would have been 20 and a half lengths in front of Subset, at level weights.

That is unbelievable and proves how consistent some horses are, to run to peak or in Subsets case, some times near peak. Those 4 runs are so alike and this is the reason I enjoy this so much!

www.attheraces.com

15:40 | Punchestown | Thursday 1st May 2025 | At The Races

15:40 | Punchestown | Thursday 1st May 2025 | Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase
www.attheraces.com www.attheraces.com
 
quiet gambler said:
I though Winter Fog E/W 28/1 also, but never bothered. Beaten just three quarters of a length for 3rd. Asterion Forlonge seemed a great E/W bet, for a place. Congratulations. That is some analysis.
Click to expand...
I had both Winter Fog and Asterion Forlonge for 4 places so, got a + on both of them. WInter Fog shortened up quite a bit in the last few mins which was interesting.
 
quiet gambler said:
Anybody have any views, that Boodles Champion Hurdle?
Click to expand...

Tough one given that Constitution Hill has fell the last twice , doesnt really inspire confidence to be honest - think he probably wins but wouldnt dismiss State Mans chances either.

At the prices i quite like Kargese and Golden Ace (altho given the two re opposing today fell at Cheltenham i think he might well struggle to confirm that form)
 
I'm concerned about Constitution Hill being 9 lengths in front of Burdett Road at Kempton. Is that enough to say he is as capable as before, when beat State Man 12 lengths?

Also Golden Ace beat Burdett Road a neck receiving 8lb from Burdett Road, at Wincanton. Jeremy Scott said Golden Ace had pulled muscles.

But Burdett Road at Cheltenham was 1lb better, but beat 9 lengths by Golden Ace. There was a lot of mess, like bumping into each other, with the Gigginstown runner.

State Man had them beat but I think Golden Ace would have gained lengths on State Man, say 2 and a half lengths.

If I was betting, it would be State Man, but at 13/8 and not sure if Constitution Hill is or is not at peak, a race for me to not get involved in.
 
Aye I had both of them, boosted my return on my Mullins bet - I always just put every Mullins horse on now at festivals, can get expensive, if he has 11 runners (like he can) I have to skip some, but if he has 3 or 4 I just back em all, even though I'm getting a bit tired of his dominance now, suppose it happens in any sport if one person or team dominate for too long.

Having said that, great run from State Man just now, Constitution Hill was awful which is a shame, but is State Man now the most under rated horse, some people say he hasn't beaten much to win some of his races (might have said it myself once), but he nearly always puts a good show in and beats whatever's in front of him, and often convincingly, he's only had two poor runs and a fall, and he was going to win at Cheltenham before he fell, and he's just won his 13th Grade 1 (from my counting).

Anyway, I need Noel Meade to win the 2nd to last and Emmet Mullins to win last two for 3 wins or 4 wins, already got a nice double but another would be nice, both would be sweet. EDIT: Noel Meade 4th.

EDIT: Nice 1, Emmet Mullins won the last, 3 out of 4 on my yankee, only E/W £0.50, £11 staked but returned £571.60 - I got 1/1, 40/1 & 7/1 - SP's 10/11, 28/1 and 5/2. This was a day where W P Mullins ruined it for me really, if I hadn't had wasted money on him and put more on Emmet, ah well, I'll take that and probably lose it all tomorrow.
 
Last edited:
1st race today is slightly strange, half of them ran 4m the other day, Vanillier has been taken out now, but I suspect a fair few others won't be running either, top few in the market so could be big changes coming in that race.
 
Ah right, that was quick, they've all just gone, I think those horses should have been taken out earlier, some people like to put their bets on early.

UK horses could do well today, I'm going to mix Honeyball, Jonjo & Greatrex, maybe put Russell and Henderson in as well if it's not too many/too expensive.

And as always, I'll be putting Mullins on. Good luck.
 
I guess that is the best of NH racing finished. As an NH enthusiast, it is always a struggle to find bets after. I guess from now the motto is just back Peter Bowen!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top