Occasional Advices
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
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Jackform
Mare
This ain't advice it's a high risk gamble 
. The pro advice indicates a win from the top 4 Bathgate being the most likely form candidate 3/1 chance on paper and about right. My vibes indicate the bottom 2 where Gardener is most favoured 6/1 but no value. SpotOn Soph 25/1 would my value e.w high risk minimum stake value punt. (My mate Michael would say a fun bet).
Nerly forgot it's Catterick 3.30 oops!
. The pro advice indicates a win from the top 4 Bathgate being the most likely form candidate 3/1 chance on paper and about right. My vibes indicate the bottom 2 where Gardener is most favoured 6/1 but no value. SpotOn Soph 25/1 would my value e.w high risk minimum stake value punt. (My mate Michael would say a fun bet).Nerly forgot it's Catterick 3.30 oops!
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Michael231
Gelding
Well you picked the wrong E/W again lucky it was just for fun.
Jackform
Mare
I spent some time rating and pricing the Wincanton 3.50, and God knowsw why 'cos it's a poor class 5 and it really is crap for punters. My early market expected no's 2 (5/2mkt), 4 (5/2), 3 (6/1). At the weights it looks an unblanced hcap and I favour something fo 5 - 9. However, being sensible I think the overall pro view is probably better and they go 1. Walkininthewoods 9% chance =10/1 (8/1 mkt) for a risky e.w. punt. (More fun Michael).
Michael231
Gelding
Have fun Alan
Hope it's a nice walkinthewoods with your dog as it's such a nice day.
Hope it's a nice walkinthewoods with your dog as it's such a nice day.
Jackform
Mare
Uttoxeter (Soft) Early mkt odds around 11.30am.
3.00 Mkt expected 10, 6, 13, 7, 11, 3, 8 indicates a win restricted to these
10. Jarrive De L'Est 19 (3/1 early)
13. Neo King 16 (7/1)
6. Aworkinprogress 12 (11/2)
MY comment: Over 4 miles on soft going and given the hcap weight range I would be looking at one from no. 12 down the card.
Seeking a value edge these are they 5. Isaac Des Obeaux (Fineform 10/1 -mkt 22/1 P Nicholls/Sam T-D). 8. Jupiter Allen (Fineform 13/2 - mkt 12/1).
In comparison At The Races board advises:
It's difficult to weigh up the chances of J'arrive De L'est, who makes his first start over regulation fences for this stable after finishing runner-up in a couple of cross country races at Cheltenham. The form of those contests does look strong and he warrants a lot of respect, but AWORKINPROGRESS appears a more solid option on this occasion. He has a terrific record of six wins from seven starts over fences and produced a career-best performance when landing the Surrey National at Lingfield most recently. An extra five furlongs is expected to suit and he is capable of defying a 5lb rise. Deafening Silence has done little wrong in three starts so far this season and must enter calculations, while Alcedo could surprise one or two at longer odds.
Top Tip: AWORKINPROGRESS (6)
Watch out for: J'ARRIVE DE L'EST (10)
3.00 Mkt expected 10, 6, 13, 7, 11, 3, 8 indicates a win restricted to these
10. Jarrive De L'Est 19 (3/1 early)
13. Neo King 16 (7/1)
6. Aworkinprogress 12 (11/2)
MY comment: Over 4 miles on soft going and given the hcap weight range I would be looking at one from no. 12 down the card.
Seeking a value edge these are they 5. Isaac Des Obeaux (Fineform 10/1 -mkt 22/1 P Nicholls/Sam T-D). 8. Jupiter Allen (Fineform 13/2 - mkt 12/1).
In comparison At The Races board advises:
It's difficult to weigh up the chances of J'arrive De L'est, who makes his first start over regulation fences for this stable after finishing runner-up in a couple of cross country races at Cheltenham. The form of those contests does look strong and he warrants a lot of respect, but AWORKINPROGRESS appears a more solid option on this occasion. He has a terrific record of six wins from seven starts over fences and produced a career-best performance when landing the Surrey National at Lingfield most recently. An extra five furlongs is expected to suit and he is capable of defying a 5lb rise. Deafening Silence has done little wrong in three starts so far this season and must enter calculations, while Alcedo could surprise one or two at longer odds.
Top Tip: AWORKINPROGRESS (6)
Watch out for: J'ARRIVE DE L'EST (10)
Expert View Verdict
Course winner Aworkinprogress has continued his progression this term and landed the Surrey National last time. His mark has gone up again as a result though and he was fortunate to beat CATCH CATCHFIRE who threw the race away with a late error. The selection races off just 6lb higher and his last run is worth ignoring as he was kicked at the start so never travelled. He can get back on track for a shrewd yard at the expense of My Immortal who benefitted from a pace bias when winning in Ireland last time. The form of that victory has taken a big boost since but he could do with some rain to be seen at his best. Fellow Irish raider J'Arrive De L'Est has been running well in cross country races and is well treated on his French form so is also respected for a shrewd stable. Of those at bigger prices last time out winner Sporting Ace is also of interest. He remains on a winning mark and has run well at this track in the past but is prone to thowing in the odd bad run when unable to dictate.1-2-3 Selections
- CATCH CATCHFIRE (17)
- MY IMMORTAL (2)
- SPORTING ACE (16)
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Jackform
Mare
Hamilton (G -GS light rain) mkt odds from 10am. Top track yard J Goldie. Top jockey Paul Mulrennan
3.51 (UK mainland feature race) early mkt expected no's 4, 7, 2
4. Eternal Force 10 (6/4 mkt) W Haggas 20
7. Altareq 15 (10/3) J Goldie 20
2. Botanical 4 (7/2) (non-runner)
ATR verdict in comparison.
ETERNAL FORCE was hugely progressive towards the end of last season and was by no means disgraced in seventh, beaten just two and a half lengths, on his return in the Lincoln at Doncaster. Entitled to have come forward for that outing and with William Haggas' horses in such good form, the four-year-old makes plenty of appeal. Theoryofeverything and the unexposed Altareq are others to bear in mind.
Top Tip: Eternal Force (4)
Watch out for: Theoryofeverything (5)
Expert View Verdict
BOTANICAL didn't handle the fast ground last time but he had proven consistent prior to that at higher levels than this so is fancied to get back on track on this likely softer surface. He can confirm Lincoln form with Eternal Force who had proven progressive prior to that outing and should come on for the run. Altareq may ideally want further than this but he's well bred and unexposed in handicaps. If matching the form of his stable debut he should also be on the premises.
1-2-3 Selections
Botanical (2)Eternal Force (4)Altareq (7)
3.51 (UK mainland feature race) early mkt expected no's 4, 7, 2
4. Eternal Force 10 (6/4 mkt) W Haggas 20
7. Altareq 15 (10/3) J Goldie 20
2. Botanical 4 (7/2) (non-runner)
ATR verdict in comparison.
ETERNAL FORCE was hugely progressive towards the end of last season and was by no means disgraced in seventh, beaten just two and a half lengths, on his return in the Lincoln at Doncaster. Entitled to have come forward for that outing and with William Haggas' horses in such good form, the four-year-old makes plenty of appeal. Theoryofeverything and the unexposed Altareq are others to bear in mind.
Top Tip: Eternal Force (4)
Watch out for: Theoryofeverything (5)
Expert View Verdict
BOTANICAL didn't handle the fast ground last time but he had proven consistent prior to that at higher levels than this so is fancied to get back on track on this likely softer surface. He can confirm Lincoln form with Eternal Force who had proven progressive prior to that outing and should come on for the run. Altareq may ideally want further than this but he's well bred and unexposed in handicaps. If matching the form of his stable debut he should also be on the premises.
1-2-3 Selections
Botanical (2)Eternal Force (4)Altareq (7)
Sullybomb
Colt
Jackform
Mare
Down the card at Epsom first named selection (MY own selections starred for interest) to Paroli staking as detaled in my System Attic thread earlier:-
Epsom Downs (Derby cse GS, 5f G - light rain ) Mkt odds from 9am.
1.30 Naana's Shadow 7/2 mkt*
2.05 Possessive 9/4, Hickory Lad 7/2*
2.40 Persica 5/2, Seagulls Eleven 10/3*
3.15 Sallal 11/4, Respond 7/2*
4.00 Amelia Earhart 9/4*, Legacy Link 3/1
4.40 Celeborn 4/1*, Asmen Warrior 9/2
5.15 Stellar Sunrise 13/8*, Greek Mythology 5/1
5.50 Dance In The Storm 15/8*
Epsom Downs (Derby cse GS, 5f G - light rain ) Mkt odds from 9am.
1.30 Naana's Shadow 7/2 mkt*
2.05 Possessive 9/4, Hickory Lad 7/2*
2.40 Persica 5/2, Seagulls Eleven 10/3*
3.15 Sallal 11/4, Respond 7/2*
4.00 Amelia Earhart 9/4*, Legacy Link 3/1
4.40 Celeborn 4/1*, Asmen Warrior 9/2
5.15 Stellar Sunrise 13/8*, Greek Mythology 5/1
5.50 Dance In The Storm 15/8*
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That's some start Jackform.
Jackform
Mare
B
billybob, it was just good fortune that highlighted the possibilities of the system and may not occur again for some time. However, if you manage a good return on a double you can cut and run before the third leg of the bet. I have checked today's Epsom card and will leave it there for now. I know it looks as though I just take the first two in the early market, but believe me it's not as easy as that - but please yourself 
.
Epsom (Derby cse GS some S places. 5f G - rain) Mkt odds from around 8.45am. Top track trainer A Balding. Top jockey O Murphy.
1.30 Never So Brave 11/8*, Alcantor 4/1
2.05 Sparks Fly 11/4*, Shes Perfect 4/1
2.40 Calandagan 10/11*, Jan Brueghel 5/2
3.15 Kinswoman 11/2*, Lexington Blitz 7/1
4.00 Benvenuto Cellini 2/1*, Item 4/1
4.40 Hell Yeah He Did 7/2*
5.20 Spinning Wheel 5/1*, Regal Ulixes 6/1
5.55 Fine Interview 3/1*, Sondad 13/2
.Epsom (Derby cse GS some S places. 5f G - rain) Mkt odds from around 8.45am. Top track trainer A Balding. Top jockey O Murphy.
1.30 Never So Brave 11/8*, Alcantor 4/1
2.05 Sparks Fly 11/4*, Shes Perfect 4/1
2.40 Calandagan 10/11*, Jan Brueghel 5/2
3.15 Kinswoman 11/2*, Lexington Blitz 7/1
4.00 Benvenuto Cellini 2/1*, Item 4/1
4.40 Hell Yeah He Did 7/2*
5.20 Spinning Wheel 5/1*, Regal Ulixes 6/1
5.55 Fine Interview 3/1*, Sondad 13/2
Jackform
Mare
Thirsk (GF some G watered) Mkt odds from 9.50am. Top track trainer D O'Meara. Top jockey Daniel Tudhope.
1.08 Posseessive (5/4 mkt)
1.38 Araphaho Gold (1/3)
2.08 Lord D'Or (4/6)
2.40 No Selection
3.10 Hares Bredth (7/1 e.w.)
3.40 York Tower (7/4) . (Danger)Asia Force (4/1)
4.10 No selection
4.40 Tattie Bogle (11/2)
Epsom (G some GF watered) Mkt odds from 12.40pm. Top track trainer A Balding. Top jockey Benoite Senoit (who he?)
5.50 Wise And Wonderful (6/1)
6.22 Dream Composition (4/1)
6.57 Alma Latina (10/11)
7.32 Sarangpur (4/5)
8.42 Utmost Good Faith (11/2). (danger) Northern Empire (6/1)
1.08 Posseessive (5/4 mkt)
1.38 Araphaho Gold (1/3)
2.08 Lord D'Or (4/6)
2.40 No Selection
3.10 Hares Bredth (7/1 e.w.)
3.40 York Tower (7/4) . (Danger)Asia Force (4/1)
4.10 No selection
4.40 Tattie Bogle (11/2)
Epsom (G some GF watered) Mkt odds from 12.40pm. Top track trainer A Balding. Top jockey Benoite Senoit (who he?)
5.50 Wise And Wonderful (6/1)
6.22 Dream Composition (4/1)
6.57 Alma Latina (10/11)
7.32 Sarangpur (4/5)
8.42 Utmost Good Faith (11/2). (danger) Northern Empire (6/1)