Occasional Advices
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
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Jackform
Mare
This ain't advice it's a high risk gamble 
. The pro advice indicates a win from the top 4 Bathgate being the most likely form candidate 3/1 chance on paper and about right. My vibes indicate the bottom 2 where Gardener is most favoured 6/1 but no value. SpotOn Soph 25/1 would my value e.w high risk minimum stake value punt. (My mate Michael would say a fun bet).
Nerly forgot it's Catterick 3.30 oops!
. The pro advice indicates a win from the top 4 Bathgate being the most likely form candidate 3/1 chance on paper and about right. My vibes indicate the bottom 2 where Gardener is most favoured 6/1 but no value. SpotOn Soph 25/1 would my value e.w high risk minimum stake value punt. (My mate Michael would say a fun bet).Nerly forgot it's Catterick 3.30 oops!
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Michael231
Gelding
Well you picked the wrong E/W again lucky it was just for fun.
Jackform
Mare
I spent some time rating and pricing the Wincanton 3.50, and God knowsw why 'cos it's a poor class 5 and it really is crap for punters. My early market expected no's 2 (5/2mkt), 4 (5/2), 3 (6/1). At the weights it looks an unblanced hcap and I favour something fo 5 - 9. However, being sensible I think the overall pro view is probably better and they go 1. Walkininthewoods 9% chance =10/1 (8/1 mkt) for a risky e.w. punt. (More fun Michael).
Michael231
Gelding
Have fun Alan
Hope it's a nice walkinthewoods with your dog as it's such a nice day.
Hope it's a nice walkinthewoods with your dog as it's such a nice day.
Jackform
Mare
Uttoxeter (Soft) Early mkt odds around 11.30am.
3.00 Mkt expected 10, 6, 13, 7, 11, 3, 8 indicates a win restricted to these
10. Jarrive De L'Est 19 (3/1 early)
13. Neo King 16 (7/1)
6. Aworkinprogress 12 (11/2)
MY comment: Over 4 miles on soft going and given the hcap weight range I would be looking at one from no. 12 down the card.
Seeking a value edge these are they 5. Isaac Des Obeaux (Fineform 10/1 -mkt 22/1 P Nicholls/Sam T-D). 8. Jupiter Allen (Fineform 13/2 - mkt 12/1).
In comparison At The Races board advises:
It's difficult to weigh up the chances of J'arrive De L'est, who makes his first start over regulation fences for this stable after finishing runner-up in a couple of cross country races at Cheltenham. The form of those contests does look strong and he warrants a lot of respect, but AWORKINPROGRESS appears a more solid option on this occasion. He has a terrific record of six wins from seven starts over fences and produced a career-best performance when landing the Surrey National at Lingfield most recently. An extra five furlongs is expected to suit and he is capable of defying a 5lb rise. Deafening Silence has done little wrong in three starts so far this season and must enter calculations, while Alcedo could surprise one or two at longer odds.
Top Tip: AWORKINPROGRESS (6)
Watch out for: J'ARRIVE DE L'EST (10)
3.00 Mkt expected 10, 6, 13, 7, 11, 3, 8 indicates a win restricted to these
10. Jarrive De L'Est 19 (3/1 early)
13. Neo King 16 (7/1)
6. Aworkinprogress 12 (11/2)
MY comment: Over 4 miles on soft going and given the hcap weight range I would be looking at one from no. 12 down the card.
Seeking a value edge these are they 5. Isaac Des Obeaux (Fineform 10/1 -mkt 22/1 P Nicholls/Sam T-D). 8. Jupiter Allen (Fineform 13/2 - mkt 12/1).
In comparison At The Races board advises:
It's difficult to weigh up the chances of J'arrive De L'est, who makes his first start over regulation fences for this stable after finishing runner-up in a couple of cross country races at Cheltenham. The form of those contests does look strong and he warrants a lot of respect, but AWORKINPROGRESS appears a more solid option on this occasion. He has a terrific record of six wins from seven starts over fences and produced a career-best performance when landing the Surrey National at Lingfield most recently. An extra five furlongs is expected to suit and he is capable of defying a 5lb rise. Deafening Silence has done little wrong in three starts so far this season and must enter calculations, while Alcedo could surprise one or two at longer odds.
Top Tip: AWORKINPROGRESS (6)
Watch out for: J'ARRIVE DE L'EST (10)
Expert View Verdict
Course winner Aworkinprogress has continued his progression this term and landed the Surrey National last time. His mark has gone up again as a result though and he was fortunate to beat CATCH CATCHFIRE who threw the race away with a late error. The selection races off just 6lb higher and his last run is worth ignoring as he was kicked at the start so never travelled. He can get back on track for a shrewd yard at the expense of My Immortal who benefitted from a pace bias when winning in Ireland last time. The form of that victory has taken a big boost since but he could do with some rain to be seen at his best. Fellow Irish raider J'Arrive De L'Est has been running well in cross country races and is well treated on his French form so is also respected for a shrewd stable. Of those at bigger prices last time out winner Sporting Ace is also of interest. He remains on a winning mark and has run well at this track in the past but is prone to thowing in the odd bad run when unable to dictate.1-2-3 Selections
- CATCH CATCHFIRE (17)
- MY IMMORTAL (2)
- SPORTING ACE (16)
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