NH Musings

[trecelyn]

Time to dust off the formbook and try and figure out the world of NH racing, never been my strong point. I have tended to latch onto certain horses and follow them over the preverbial cliff, Barnbrook Again, Door Latch and Yangtse Kiang all have a place in my affections and have all emptied my wallet at some point. Armed with some stats and trainer quotes I will endevour to find my way through the coming season.

Worcester 12.10
Strange place to start with a 15 runner novice handicap chase but here goes. There are plenty in here that could develop into handicap chasers over time and looking through through the trainer quotes a few of the stables have hopes for their charges to do just that. The one I have chosen is Joyau Allen

Jamie Snowden (20 October 2026): "He is a full brother to Envoi Allen - he won his point-to-points and then won a bumper at Exeter pretty impressively. Things never progressed for him over hurdles, and we inherited him during the summer. He is nicely handicapped to go novice handicap chasing this year."

Stable is going really well and I think they have found a nice race for him off a low weight.

Worcester 3.40
With a lot of this field not having the strongest of credentials it could pay to look beyond the market leaders which I have done with Eskimo Sam. Has not troubled the judge yet but some promising form in there and could get placed for a small profit.

Huntingdon, small fields and lots of novices dont get the creative juices flowing. I was contemplating Jet Of Dreams to complete the hat trick. I know that statistics can lie but when you see that jockeys claiming above 5lb are 1-31 in handicap chases at this course it tends to put you off, it does with me anyway.

Carlisle 3.23
Guard The Moon was a clearcut winner of small-field novice handicaps last winter at Aintree (2m4f, soft) and Windsor (3m, soft; first-time cheekpieces) in two of his chases, but he was pulled up in the other two; latest was admittedly the 3m6f NH Chase at Cheltenham Festival (33-1); could still have more to give as a staying chaser and yard has had plenty of winners this autumn.

Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (26 October 2026)
: "Guard The Moon was a bit behind the rest when he came in a bit late but his work is catching up really well. He should be very dangerous in those two and a half mile/three mile handicap chases. I think there’s a nice pot in him somewhere along the year. "

2-2 coming off a break, may be the right time to catch him

 

[trecelyn]

Fair start with Joyau Allen, backed from 7-2 into 7-4. Eskimo Sam always in rear never figured. Over at Huntingdon jockeys claiming over 5lb are now 1-32. Guard The Moon, ran ok just losing 2nd at the end. Ive had a lot, lot worse days over the jumps.

 

[trecelyn]

Plumpton 2.00 Hiero Sport running here off his hurdle mark which he has won off, looks like he may have a future in low grade handicaps based on its last couple of runs over fences. Admitedly he is a bit late turning to chasing, but of further improvement will see him go well.

Plumpton 2.30 do not understand why Stream Of Stars is 14-1 and is my ew play of the day as a result as there is obviously someting i'm missing. Good run only tiring late back from a break having done plenty in a handicap hurdle at Chepstow.
Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (26 October 2026): "Stream Of Stars is a good old yard servant. He is getting on in age but he still showed loads of enthusiasm at Chepstow. He should be out in the next few weeks and we’ll be looking for some of those Veterans’ hurdles for him. He’s a lovely consistent horse and he should be winning again soon. "

 

[tacker]

Fair start with Joyau Allen, backed from 7-2 into 7-4. Eskimo Sam always in rear never figured. Over at Huntingdon jockeys claiming over 5lb are now 1-32. Guard The Moon, ran ok just losing 2nd at the end. Ive had a lot, lot worse days over the jumps.

Good work there trecelyn

 

[Chesham]

Well done @

trecelyn

Should see a couple come out of the 3.33 , in the future


Next-Time-Out (NTO) Tracker

• 1 GUARD THE MOON (OR 136): Put him straight at the top of your notebook. Returning from a 236-day layoffcarrying 12-1 (169 lbs) and drifting 104% on Betfair (4.4 →→ 9.0), he clearly needed the run for fitness—yet he posted an elite 8.3/10 Jump Index (1st), gained +9.49 Lengths Jumping (1st), recorded 100.0% Positive Jumps (1st), and lost the least speed over his fences (-3.34 mph, 1st). Stripping fitter second time out over 3m–3m2f on Soft/Good-to-Soft ground, he is a Grade 3/Premier Handicap winner in waiting.
• 4 CAUGHTINYOURTRANCE (OR 127): Continues in peak form (+8.28L jumping, 78.95% positive jumps, 0.72s recovery). When he doesn't have to spot 15 lbs to a match-fit bottom-weight on the front end, he will win a 3m Class 3 chase readily.

 

[trecelyn]

Chesham thanks for the information, I really do appreciate any interaction I get, especially when it's as helpful as yours is.

 

[Chesham]

Your welcome, trecelyn, I was going for an Exacta in that race but Passengerontheship was one that I underestimated and he spoiled the party . I always carry out a PM to see what can be learned.

 

[MySportsAI]

Well done @

trecelyn

Should see a couple come out of the 3.33 , in the future


Next-Time-Out (NTO) Tracker

• 1 GUARD THE MOON (OR 136): Put him straight at the top of your notebook. Returning from a 236-day layoffcarrying 12-1 (169 lbs) and drifting 104% on Betfair (4.4 →→ 9.0), he clearly needed the run for fitness—yet he posted an elite 8.3/10 Jump Index (1st), gained +9.49 Lengths Jumping (1st), recorded 100.0% Positive Jumps (1st), and lost the least speed over his fences (-3.34 mph, 1st). Stripping fitter second time out over 3m–3m2f on Soft/Good-to-Soft ground, he is a Grade 3/Premier Handicap winner in waiting.
• 4 CAUGHTINYOURTRANCE (OR 127): Continues in peak form (+8.28L jumping, 78.95% positive jumps, 0.72s recovery). When he doesn't have to spot 15 lbs to a match-fit bottom-weight on the front end, he will win a 3m Class 3 chase readily.

Chesham How do you balance that layoff NTO improvement with the fact that Twiston Davis has an excellent record with layoff horses ie they tend to be fit rather than unfit

 

[Chesham]

Chesham How do you balance that layoff NTO improvement with the fact that Twiston Davis has an excellent record with layoff horses ie they tend to be fit rather than unfit

I Think it is clear how the algorithm that I use viewed the result as there are a few factors revealed as to why today was not its day. But also it does seem to tie in with the Trainers commmets that trecelyn, kindly shared.

Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (26 October 2026)
: "Guard The Moon was a bit behind the rest when he came in a bit late but his work is catching up really well. He should be very dangerous in those two and a half mile/three mile handicap chases. I think there’s a nice pot in him somewhere along the year. "

Perhaps today the conditioning factor in the race will have brought the horse along even more. So far the horse has won two handicap chases and one of those after a similar lay off but the heaviest weight carried was 11st-7

The Trainer does indeed have a decent record with Lay Off chasers



I did have Guard The Moon in my exacta, which was a losing exacta . I always run a PM to see what went right or wrong and to pick up any potential trackers for the future, which is why I posted a response to trecelyn .

 

[Chesham]

Just looked at the Race Trend

 

[Chesham]

2. RaceIQ Jumping & Biomechanical Forensics

Winning Time: 6m 37.48s | Going: Good (Good to Soft in places)

Pos	Horse (Wgt)	Jump Idx	Lengths Gained	Top Speed	Exit Speed	Recov Time	Biomechanical & Tactical Takeaway
1st	7 Passenger (10-5)	7.7 (3rd)	+7.15L (3rd)	34.21 (1st)	28.73 (3rd)	0.96s (4th)	The Featherweight Front-Runner: Ranked 1st in Entry Speed (29.74 mph) and 1st in Top Speed (34.21 mph). Receiving 15–24 lbs from the field with 14-day race fitness, he turned the race into an uncontested 29.74 mph jumping clinic.
2nd	4 Caughtin (11-6)	7.7 (2nd)	+8.28L (2nd)	34.00 (3rd)	28.88 (2nd)	0.72s (2nd)	The Conceding-Weight Hero: Gained +8.28L in the air, clocked 0.72s recovery (2nd) and 4.86s envelope (1st), but giving 15 lbs up the Carlisle hill to a fit front-runner proved 2 lengths too much.
3rd	1 Guard Moon (12-1)	8.3 (1st)	+9.49L (1st)	33.98 (4th)	28.72 (4th)	0.74s (3rd)	**The 100% Jumping Monster:**Posted an astonishing 8.3 Jump Index (1st), +9.49L Gained Jumping (1st), 100% Positive Jump % (1st), and -3.34 mph Speed Lost (1st) under 12-1 topweight off a 236-day layoff! Only a mistake at the last cost him 2nd.
4th	6 Fortunate (11-5)	6.4 (6th)	-7.59L (5th)	34.06 (2nd)	28.91 (1st)	1.16s (5th)	The Jumping Collapse: Had the engine (2nd Top Speed 34.06 mph, 1st Exit Speed 28.91 mph), but lost -7.59 lengths in the air (15.79% Positive Jump %) and gave the leaders too much rope.
5th	2 Grand Geste (11-11)	7.7 (4th)	+6.99L (4th)	33.66 (8th)	28.70 (5th)	0.69s (1st)	Confirmed Pre-Race Telemetry: Validated his pre-race #1 Jump Recovery (0.69s, 1st) and 84.21% Positive Jump % (2nd), but his pre-race 8th/8 Cadence showed up as 8th/8 Top Speed (33.66 mph), leaving him one-paced late.

Explanations: The race was completely decided by Lengths Gained Jumping and Match Fitness: the top three finishers gained +7.15L, +8.28L, and +9.49L over the fences, while the 5/2 favourite Fortunate Man (-7.59L) and the two Sandy Thomson layoff horses (Egbert -14.14L, Grozni -17.81L) haemorrhaged ground in the air.

 

[trecelyn]

No joy today, must do better as my old maths teacher used to say.

Lingfield 2.47 Away For The Night 1212 since going over fences, both seconds came on RH tracks? Has jumped left on occasions. Improved again showing willing attitude landing a handicap by a neck off a 6lb lower mark at Worcester last time; suited by 2m, acts on good to soft and good; progressive, still mileage in mark on hurdles form. Stable in good form.

 

[trecelyn]

Could not find anything today, plenty of action tomorrow though

Newbury 12.42 Bluegrass 14-1 ew WillHill paying 5 places. Has to have a flat track over close to the minimum distance. Likely to race prominently and will be in the front rank at the end of the race, it is just a matter of if he can stay in the places as I do not envisage him winning. The jockey Murray Dodd has quite a decent record on hurdlers having rode 19 winners with a 13% strike rate

Newcastle 2.07 Bogha Baiste 10-1 ew WillHill I think this boy is better off in handicaps rather than novices. Still a maiden hence the temptation to go down the novice route but his consustency off this mark makes him a decent place bet. One of the reasons I am not going for the win is the poor stable form. Just hope we dont get another non runner

Newcastle 3.15 Powerofjet 9-1 B365 makes up my ew treble for the day, another I'm not expecting to win but certainly place prospects given the stables good recent form and the jockeys record of 6 wins from 19 rides for the stable in last 12 months

 

[trecelyn]

1 winner out of 3 with the 2 losers getting well beaten, still a profit on the day albeit to very small stakes. Initial thoughts, I may be putting too much emphasis on current trainer form. Will monitor for the moment and see how this pans out.

 

[trecelyn]

Aintree 3.00 Brookie 7-1

Anthony Honeyball (15 January 2026): "He was a fabulous novice chaser last season and was second in a Grade 1 at the Aintree Festival and won a big handicap at Doncaster. He started the season quite well when finishing third in a big handicap at Cheltenham and then never really got going at Ascot on his next run. We have to put a line through that, and he is due to go to Doncaster on January 24 for a £50,000 handicap chase. He is entered in the Champion Chase which is a little bit tilting at windmills, but we put him in there and we will have a look." Less

Tilting at Windmills has been replaced by a more realistic race to contest. On the way back backed by a good RPR when 4th beaten 7l in a handicap chase at Ascot latest; cheekpieces on for the first time; 2m trip is perfect as is the going.

Aintree 3.35 Hold Your Fort 28-1 ew

Does its best work when allowed to dictate the pace showing a distinct preference for left-handed tracks, particularly flat or sharp tracks where its front-running style can drain the energy out of the chasing pack. Out-and-Out Staying Chaser with a sweet spot between 3 miles to 3 miles 2 furlongs. When dropped down below 3m tends to get outpaced when the taps are turned on, whereas over 3m+ it simply grinds opponents down. Handles a bit of ease in the ground (Good to Soft / Soft), as proven by its 2nd-place finish at Ffos Las on soft in October 2026. Ran to form beaten 3l off this mark at Ffos Las last time; the price is just too big

 

[trecelyn]

Didnt get close today

Aintree 3.35 Bluey 8-1

Emma Lavelle (11 February 2025): "She is a nice mare, and she was very good when winning in the fog at Wincanton. She ran a smashing race at Windsor when beaten by a good mare of Paul Nicholls’. We don’t know whether to run her in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, and realistically the Mares’ Final at Kelso at the end of March would be her target."

She was a big improver switched to fences last season, posting three wins (2m2f-2m5f, good/soft), including at Market Rasen in April when last seen; now takes on males in a more competitive handicap but this 7yo is not without a chance and has won fresh in the past

Uttoxeter 1.25 Moyganny Phil 3-1

Given too much to do but ran to form on chase debut possibly needing run, finishing with running left after being held up last; lots of potential and should make a nice chaser, may get 3m. could improve markedly with the experience behind him and he looks an interesting contender at the foot of the weights.

 

[trecelyn]

Couple of placed efforts

Carlisle 2.27 Nobotheratall ew paying 4 places

Took a step forward last time at Newcastle, Carlisle is the trainers local track and he has a solid record here and as a result so does the stable jockey. The horse has won on its only visit to the track.

Carlisle 3.02 Oh Janey

Hurdle rating was 110 at one point, races here off 102 which is probably fair for what it's shown at the moment. Trainer does like to travel with his horses, ran ok on chase debut but more importantly for me he's won going right handed which for some reason I see as a positive

 

[trecelyn]

15-2 winner today makes up for a slightly dissapointing week.

Huntingdon 1.10 Charles Ritz

Best caught when fresh so coming off a 200 day break should not be an issue. Flat tracks suit best and the OR sits about right to where his best form is. Distance should not be a problem, obviously not staying the extended 3m at Chepstow LTO. The danger being the likely favourite Sherborne but as he is likely to race prominently perhaps even leading he could set the race up for the selection.

Huntingdon 1.40 Ocean Heights

I am not a fan of these conditional events and my memory is telling me the last time I picked a winner in one of these races the were only 3 TV channels. The record that Rian Corcoran has for David Pipe stands out to me and the fact that she has placed on the horse is another bonus. Completely at home in these low class hurdle events around this distance

 

[trecelyn]

First and second today

Ayr 3.13 Bridge Court

Ridden by Brian Hughes who appears to be the stables go to jockey at the moment with a 35% SR over the past year. This trip appears to suit him well at this stage in his career. Hunted around in rear over inadequate distance on seasons comeback run. This will be only his 7th run over fences so to my untrained eye further improvement could be on the cards?

Warwick 12.50 Mister Des Places

This one may seem a bit of a stretch to some, a 10lb claimer in a conditional jockeys race, but bare with me. Troy Lacey the claimer in question has ridden a winner for this stable and is actually an experienced point to point rider in Ireland averaging around 50 rides a season and a strike rate approaching double figures over the last 5 seasons. Now to the horse.

Fairly consistent in France winning 2 claiming hurdles. Outpaced on stable debut now stepping up to 19f which may suit. Will need to step up here to figure but capable of doing so and stable are in really good form.