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NH Musings

trecelyn

trecelyn

Filly
Time to dust off the formbook and try and figure out the world of NH racing, never been my strong point. I have tended to latch onto certain horses and follow them over the preverbial cliff, Barnbrook Again, Door Latch and Yangtse Kiang all have a place in my affections and have all emptied my wallet at some point. Armed with some stats and trainer quotes I will endevour to find my way through the coming season.

Worcester 12.10
Strange place to start with a 15 runner novice handicap chase but here goes. There are plenty in here that could develop into handicap chasers over time and looking through through the trainer quotes a few of the stables have hopes for their charges to do just that. The one I have chosen is Joyau Allen

Jamie Snowden (20 October 2026): "He is a full brother to Envoi Allen - he won his point-to-points and then won a bumper at Exeter pretty impressively. Things never progressed for him over hurdles, and we inherited him during the summer. He is nicely handicapped to go novice handicap chasing this year."

Stable is going really well and I think they have found a nice race for him off a low weight.

Worcester 3.40
With a lot of this field not having the strongest of credentials it could pay to look beyond the market leaders which I have done with Eskimo Sam. Has not troubled the judge yet but some promising form in there and could get placed for a small profit.

Huntingdon, small fields and lots of novices dont get the creative juices flowing. I was contemplating Jet Of Dreams to complete the hat trick. I know that statistics can lie but when you see that jockeys claiming above 5lb are 1-31 in handicap chases at this course it tends to put you off, it does with me anyway.

Carlisle 3.23
Guard The Moon was a clearcut winner of small-field novice handicaps last winter at Aintree (2m4f, soft) and Windsor (3m, soft; first-time cheekpieces) in two of his chases, but he was pulled up in the other two; latest was admittedly the 3m6f NH Chase at Cheltenham Festival (33-1); could still have more to give as a staying chaser and yard has had plenty of winners this autumn.

Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (26 October 2026)
: "Guard The Moon was a bit behind the rest when he came in a bit late but his work is catching up really well. He should be very dangerous in those two and a half mile/three mile handicap chases. I think there’s a nice pot in him somewhere along the year. "

2-2 coming off a break, may be the right time to catch him
 
Fair start with Joyau Allen, backed from 7-2 into 7-4. Eskimo Sam always in rear never figured. Over at Huntingdon jockeys claiming over 5lb are now 1-32. Guard The Moon, ran ok just losing 2nd at the end. Ive had a lot, lot worse days over the jumps.
 
Plumpton 2.00 Hiero Sport running here off his hurdle mark which he has won off, looks like he may have a future in low grade handicaps based on its last couple of runs over fences. Admitedly he is a bit late turning to chasing, but of further improvement will see him go well.

Plumpton 2.30 do not understand why Stream Of Stars is 14-1 and is my ew play of the day as a result as there is obviously someting i'm missing. Good run only tiring late back from a break having done plenty in a handicap hurdle at Chepstow.
 
Well done @
trecelyn
trecelyn

Should see a couple come out of the 3.33 , in the future


Next-Time-Out (NTO) Tracker

  • 1 GUARD THE MOON (OR 136): Put him straight at the top of your notebook. Returning from a 236-day layoffcarrying 12-1 (169 lbs) and drifting 104% on Betfair (4.4 →→ 9.0), he clearly needed the run for fitness—yet he posted an elite 8.3/10 Jump Index (1st), gained +9.49 Lengths Jumping (1st), recorded 100.0% Positive Jumps (1st), and lost the least speed over his fences (-3.34 mph, 1st). Stripping fitter second time out over 3m–3m2f on Soft/Good-to-Soft ground, he is a Grade 3/Premier Handicap winner in waiting.
  • 4 CAUGHTINYOURTRANCE (OR 127): Continues in peak form (+8.28L jumping, 78.95% positive jumps, 0.72s recovery). When he doesn't have to spot 15 lbs to a match-fit bottom-weight on the front end, he will win a 3m Class 3 chase readily.
 
Your welcome, trecelyn trecelyn, I was going for an Exacta in that race but Passengerontheship was one that I underestimated and he spoiled the party . I always carry out a PM to see what can be learned.
 
Chesham said:
Well done @
trecelyn
trecelyn

Should see a couple come out of the 3.33 , in the future


Next-Time-Out (NTO) Tracker

  • 1 GUARD THE MOON (OR 136): Put him straight at the top of your notebook. Returning from a 236-day layoffcarrying 12-1 (169 lbs) and drifting 104% on Betfair (4.4 →→ 9.0), he clearly needed the run for fitness—yet he posted an elite 8.3/10 Jump Index (1st), gained +9.49 Lengths Jumping (1st), recorded 100.0% Positive Jumps (1st), and lost the least speed over his fences (-3.34 mph, 1st). Stripping fitter second time out over 3m–3m2f on Soft/Good-to-Soft ground, he is a Grade 3/Premier Handicap winner in waiting.
  • 4 CAUGHTINYOURTRANCE (OR 127): Continues in peak form (+8.28L jumping, 78.95% positive jumps, 0.72s recovery). When he doesn't have to spot 15 lbs to a match-fit bottom-weight on the front end, he will win a 3m Class 3 chase readily.
Click to expand...
Chesham How do you balance that layoff NTO improvement with the fact that Twiston Davis has an excellent record with layoff horses ie they tend to be fit rather than unfit
 
MySportsAI said:
Chesham How do you balance that layoff NTO improvement with the fact that Twiston Davis has an excellent record with layoff horses ie they tend to be fit rather than unfit
Click to expand...
I Think it is clear how the algorithm that I use viewed the result as there are a few factors revealed as to why today was not its day. But also it does seem to tie in with the Trainers commmets that trecelyn trecelyn, kindly shared.

Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (26 October 2026)
: "Guard The Moon was a bit behind the rest when he came in a bit late but his work is catching up really well. He should be very dangerous in those two and a half mile/three mile handicap chases. I think there’s a nice pot in him somewhere along the year. "

Perhaps today the conditioning factor in the race will have brought the horse along even more. So far the horse has won two handicap chases and one of those after a similar lay off but the heaviest weight carried was 11st-7

The Trainer does indeed have a decent record with Lay Off chasers

IMG_1185.jpeg

I did have Guard The Moon in my exacta, which was a losing exacta . I always run a PM to see what went right or wrong and to pick up any potential trackers for the future, which is why I posted a response to trecelyn trecelyn .
 
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