my speed horses.
- Thread starter gerry
- Start date
gerry
Mare
It sure did just improved to much on the day for mine.
gerry
Mare
Just finished Fridays but had a look at that race for Saturday
mick and you certainly have went for tough race.
And what i have come down to in this race is the going is going to be very crucial in the out come.
I can totally see why you have went for DEMOCRACY DILEMMA considering its performance last year. But i still feel the AMERICAN AFFAIR form is solid JM JUNGLE finished just ahead of JER BATT with MON NA SLIEVE a little behind them,
There is not much between these two in betting or form but the good race i like was in good to soft with it looking by time as good ground.
I think JM JUNGLE really doesn't want it any softer than that where as JER BATT would be happier if it gets softer.
This is where it does get complicated. When DEMMOCRACY DILEMMA run second last year it was genuine good to soft , But has showed all though runs on most goings tends to be even better on softer ground.
Going back to 2023 DEMMOCRACY DILEMMA got beat twice by JM JUNGLE on faster ground but also beat JM JUNGLE at Thirsk on genuine softer ground.
So between these two horses i feel the faster would suit JM JUNGLE softer DEMMORCACY DILEMMA and also the softer would bring JER BATT into it.
The draw could really be important but i would expect JM JUNGLE and DEMMOCRACY DILEMMA to show early pace.
Last Saturday JM JUNGLE got beat and let me down for big returns and i am struggling to get away from it so ground will be my decider after i see the times on Fridays cards at Epsom.
I don't know if i am right but looking at draws it looks better to be not drawn 1or 2 or totally wide and was interesting listening to K FALLON the other night talking about his Epsom oaks and derby winners and he said he would sooner be drawn wide than inside any day as when you come down tattenham corner you need width for the camber.
Conclusion sounds not sure but if faster i will go for JM JUNGLE if softer JER BATT but scared of yours
mick good luck.
mick and you certainly have went for tough race.And what i have come down to in this race is the going is going to be very crucial in the out come.
I can totally see why you have went for DEMOCRACY DILEMMA considering its performance last year. But i still feel the AMERICAN AFFAIR form is solid JM JUNGLE finished just ahead of JER BATT with MON NA SLIEVE a little behind them,
There is not much between these two in betting or form but the good race i like was in good to soft with it looking by time as good ground.
I think JM JUNGLE really doesn't want it any softer than that where as JER BATT would be happier if it gets softer.
This is where it does get complicated. When DEMMOCRACY DILEMMA run second last year it was genuine good to soft , But has showed all though runs on most goings tends to be even better on softer ground.
Going back to 2023 DEMMOCRACY DILEMMA got beat twice by JM JUNGLE on faster ground but also beat JM JUNGLE at Thirsk on genuine softer ground.
So between these two horses i feel the faster would suit JM JUNGLE softer DEMMORCACY DILEMMA and also the softer would bring JER BATT into it.
The draw could really be important but i would expect JM JUNGLE and DEMMOCRACY DILEMMA to show early pace.
Last Saturday JM JUNGLE got beat and let me down for big returns and i am struggling to get away from it so ground will be my decider after i see the times on Fridays cards at Epsom.
I don't know if i am right but looking at draws it looks better to be not drawn 1or 2 or totally wide and was interesting listening to K FALLON the other night talking about his Epsom oaks and derby winners and he said he would sooner be drawn wide than inside any day as when you come down tattenham corner you need width for the camber.
Conclusion sounds not sure but if faster i will go for JM JUNGLE if softer JER BATT but scared of yours
mick good luck.
gerry
Mare
Today there is no get rich horses but i see we have GALLANT 3 50 LINGFIELD after getting no run last time and
T
tacker on here suggesting needs at least the 7 fur maybe more now out over mile big drop in class should win today.
The only other horse which i thought was good thing last time out and got beat is ETERNAL SUNSHINE 2 42 HAMILTON.
What i found weird i suppose is right word is goldie usually knows when his horses right to win at musselburgh ayr and hamilton and he has horss for tracks, But he has run this horse at ayr and musselburgh never here at hamilton as i think can get unbalanced and i think its compleatly if it can handle the down hill and uphill finish here.
The only other horse which i thought was good thing last time out and got beat is ETERNAL SUNSHINE 2 42 HAMILTON.
What i found weird i suppose is right word is goldie usually knows when his horses right to win at musselburgh ayr and hamilton and he has horss for tracks, But he has run this horse at ayr and musselburgh never here at hamilton as i think can get unbalanced and i think its compleatly if it can handle the down hill and uphill finish here.
Chesham
Sire
LTO Sectionals Report (Gallant )
Furlong | Par Type | Rare Change Δ | Colour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1f–3f | Slow | +1.14s |  |
| 4f–5f | Avg | +0.64s |  |
| 6f | Fast | +0.31s |  |
| 7f | Fast | 0.00s |  |
Key Takeaways
Back These Next Time:
- Perfect Part (huge run left)
- Eve’s Boy (unlucky)
- Gallant (never asked)
- Best Rate (ready to win Class 3/4)
Rare Change is clearly progressing, especially when there's a solid tempo to chase. Should be respected even with a rise in grade.
Pedigree Report
Pedigree, Inbreeding, Nicks & Performance Analysis of Gallant (FR)
I. Genetic & Inbreeding Profile
Gallant (FR), a 2022 French-bred colt by Hello Youmzain out of Sailor Moon, presents a complex and high-quality genetic makeup, with notable inbreeding, classic European bloodlines, and strong racehorse influences.Wright’s Coefficient of Inbreeding (F)
- Significant duplications:
- Danehill: 3S × 3D
- Danzig: 4S × 4D
- Razyana: 4S × 4D
- Northern Dancer: 5S × 5S × 5D × 5D
- Pas de Nom, His Majesty, Spring Adieu: 5x5
Implications:
- Positives: Consolidates elite speed influence, precocity, and commercial appeal.
- Risks: Reduced genetic diversity could slightly raise the risk of latent physical or durability limitations, although no signs of this are evident in his racing so far.
Female Tail Line: The “Serafica” Family
Gallant descends maternally from Seralia (GB), dam of Serafica, tracing to Helen Street, the dam of Street Cry, and ultimately from the Sayonara (GER) branch, linking to Schwarzkönig and Samum. This is an elite, stamina-influenced German-French line.Traits of This Tail Line:
- Excellent fertility and broodmare soundness.
- Repeated producers of middle-distance runners with toughness.
- Strong miler-to-10f ability (evident in Gallant's siblings Straight Right and Stone Roses).
Nick Ratings & Genetic Compatibility
Sire: Hello Youmzain (FR)
- By Kodiac, a son of Danehill, out of Spasha, a Shamardal mare.
Dam: Sailor Moon
- By Tiger Hill (by Danehill) out of Seralia.
Nick Pattern:
This is a Danehill × Tiger Hill × Shamardal nick—a cross often producing early maturing, high-speed individuals with 6-7f aptitude and the potential to stretch to a mile under restraint.Rated Cross Analysis:
- The Kodiac × Tiger Hill cross has been modest in Europe, but Hello Youmzain is part of a newer, emerging Kodiac influence on Group-level sprinters.
- The Hello Youmzain × Tiger Hill (Danehill line) cross is rare, but early data shows strong nick potential (notably Hello Queen from a similar line).
- Likely nick rating: B+ to A- on early indicators.
Timeform Performance & Trajectory
Timeform Ratings Summary:
- Best: 95+P (Kempton win over 6f)
- Latest: 85+ (York C3 7f Handicap, eye-catching)
- TF speed figures consistently strong for class
Timeform Race Comments Key Points:
- Debut (Sal, Aug 24): Showed ability; needed experience.
- Kempton Win (Oct 24): Strong finish; 1¾L clear; showed acceleration.
- 2025 Spring Campaign:
- Newmarket (Apr): Big late gains, under mild urging.
- York (May): "Caught the eye in no uncertain terms," never got clear run; still "not off the bridle."
Profile Summary:
- Trip: Strongest over 6-7f; may stay 1m.
- Surface: Versatile; Polytrack and turf.
- Tactical Notes: Travels strongly, prefers cover, requires clear running.
- Potential: Remains well handicapped; capable of a Timeform 100+ rating on next start if given a clear trip.
Overall Assessment
| Attribute | Evaluation |
|---|---|
| Inbreeding Strategy | Concentrated class via Danehill & Danzig |
| Genetic Soundness | Moderate inbreeding, elite maternal line |
| Nicking & Compatibility | Promising Kodiac/Danehill/Tiger Hill cross |
| Race Type Ideal | 6f–7f, Listed or early-season Group 3s |
| Timeform Development | Improving colt, excellent untapped potential |
| Value Indicator | €170k 2yo price justified by upward profile |
Recommendation
Gallant (FR) is an exciting prospect. His blend of elite sprinting genes, proven female stamina, and professional early racing efforts make him a strong contender for Group 3 sprints or Listed events. Based on physical and genetic indicators,
Chesham
Sire
The 2nd had won over further and has recent runs at 10f , We will know more when the Sectionals are available
gerry
Mare
Going to tomorrow where some decent races here my looks.
1 30 EPSOM DIEGO VENTURA. Actually never noticed this horse out after running really good third to cosmic year and it came out and won cosmic year franked form big style running really well in irish group 1. so sticking to listed class must be hard to beat.
3 15 EPSOM BOTANICAL. If i am being honest i don't think all weather suits this horse and was little surprised after really good appearance they went to kempton. Anyway it likes grass and with ground on the good to soft side so hopefully ideal, Back in a handicap with only 1lb more than when run 2nd at york be hard to not see it going close , First time cheeks could help that little bit more.
4 00 EPSOM DESERT FLOWER. Not getting great price for horse jumping so much in distance but is a classic after all, And i have this horse down as very good indeed so i have no doubt about its class. If it gets beat it will be distance but i think is the class horse of race and had to mention it look for what ever it does in future.
4 35 EPSOM FLIGHT PLAN. This horse won well at thirsk last time and i don't think they have punished it for it. I think this track will suit it to well more than others and wide draw not such bad thing, There was a couple i thought could be dangers but i am sure this will run really well.
5 30 THIRSK ARABIAN COBRA . This horse just failed at hamilton last time out in a decent enough race for track and this drop in class here.
Had been running on all weather for while before that run and with ground looking ideal i think will win.
5 10 EPSOM PARTISAN HERO. This horse will stay although just failed at chester last time and that was by horse who runs earlier who i did make danger to mine in that race but this is slightly easier, And that was first time under mile and at chester to and did well so i can see this leading all the way and kicking.
6 55 BATH STAR CHORUS. All weather horse who now has had couple runs on grass and at first glance don't look great form but i rate the races and getting slightly better in them as it goes and now given chance, Think will run better than expected.
1 30 EPSOM DIEGO VENTURA. Actually never noticed this horse out after running really good third to cosmic year and it came out and won cosmic year franked form big style running really well in irish group 1. so sticking to listed class must be hard to beat.
3 15 EPSOM BOTANICAL. If i am being honest i don't think all weather suits this horse and was little surprised after really good appearance they went to kempton. Anyway it likes grass and with ground on the good to soft side so hopefully ideal, Back in a handicap with only 1lb more than when run 2nd at york be hard to not see it going close , First time cheeks could help that little bit more.
4 00 EPSOM DESERT FLOWER. Not getting great price for horse jumping so much in distance but is a classic after all, And i have this horse down as very good indeed so i have no doubt about its class. If it gets beat it will be distance but i think is the class horse of race and had to mention it look for what ever it does in future.
4 35 EPSOM FLIGHT PLAN. This horse won well at thirsk last time and i don't think they have punished it for it. I think this track will suit it to well more than others and wide draw not such bad thing, There was a couple i thought could be dangers but i am sure this will run really well.
5 30 THIRSK ARABIAN COBRA . This horse just failed at hamilton last time out in a decent enough race for track and this drop in class here.
Had been running on all weather for while before that run and with ground looking ideal i think will win.
5 10 EPSOM PARTISAN HERO. This horse will stay although just failed at chester last time and that was by horse who runs earlier who i did make danger to mine in that race but this is slightly easier, And that was first time under mile and at chester to and did well so i can see this leading all the way and kicking.
6 55 BATH STAR CHORUS. All weather horse who now has had couple runs on grass and at first glance don't look great form but i rate the races and getting slightly better in them as it goes and now given chance, Think will run better than expected.
Well done
gerry a good winner, the jockey implied that 7f would be optimum trip for Gallant.
Chesham
Sire
Race: bet365 Handicap (Class 4), 3YO Only, 1m 1y — Surface: Polytrack (Standard)
Date: 5th June 2025
Winner's Time: 1:36.45
RaceiQ Time Index: 6.7/10 (vs. Par -0.64s)
FSP: 106.07%
Executive Summary
This was a steadily-run affair finishing at an above-average clip (FSP 106%), dominated by Gallant and Lazieelunch, whose sectionals and efficiency ratings showed superior late-race energy deployment. Transparent ran a brave race but faded late, while others were either unsuited by pace dynamics or surface. Based on deep sectional data, two horses emerge with strong future prospects: Gallant (for speed) and Lazieelunch (for energy distribution).
Sectional Time Analysis
Let's examine each key contender based on:- Sectional Splits (per furlong)
- MPH Acceleration Patterns
- Par Comparison
- Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP)
- Energy Efficiency
1st - GALLANT (Draw 8)
TFR: p95+ | OR: 84 | SP: 6/5f| Furlong | Time (s) | MPH | vs. Par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2f | 11.49 | 38.14 | Fast |
| 6f | 11.46 | 38.25 | Fast |
| 7f | 11.24 | 39.00 | Very Fast |
| 8f | 11.48 | 38.22 | Fast |
Key Notes:
- Gallant recorded the fastest furlong (7th) of the race at 39.00 MPH, a decisive move that led to his victory.
- His acceleration from furlong 6 (38.25 MPH) to 7 (39.00 MPH) represented the highest in-race MPH gain, crucial for taking the lead.
- FSP: 106.07% — strong finishing pace.
- Gallant was +0.50s behind at 2f but improved position every split.
- Time vs. par: -0.64s (ran faster than par despite a sharp track).
FUTURE NOTE: Best suited to 7f-1m races on sharp AW tracks; best weapon is late-race acceleration. Keep on side if reappearing in similarly run events with patient tactics.
2nd - LAZIEELUNCH (Draw 6)
TFR: p87+ | OR: 76 | SP: 12/1| Furlong | Time (s) | MPH | vs. Par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6f | 11.40 | 38.46 | Fast |
| 7f | 11.37 | 38.56 | Fast |
| 8f | 11.23 | 39.01 | Very Fast |
Key Notes:
- Matched Gallant's top speed (39.01 MPH at 8f) — fastest closing furlong in race.
- FSP: 106.64% (strongest in field).
- Sectional times were very consistent and energy-efficient with minimal deceleration.
- Came from off the pace, showing great late-stamina and balance, pulling clear of the rest.
FUTURE NOTE: Strong closing style suits big-field handicaps or races with strong early pace. Could excel over stiff 1m or even 7f if gallop is honest.
3rd - TRANSPARENT (Draw 3)
TFR: p89 | OR: 86 | SP: 2/1| Furlong | Time (s) | MPH | vs. Par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2f–6f | 11.47–12.14 | 37.00–38.0 | Par/Slow |
| 8f | 11.87 | 36.94 | Below Par |
Key Notes:
- Led between 3f–5f but noticeably faded from furlong 7 (11.46s) to 8 (11.87s).
- Showed energy inefficiency and race pacing mismatch — his speed peaked mid-race but couldn’t sustain.
- Lacked finishing speed (FSP: 103.82%).
FUTURE NOTE: May be better suited to 7f; appears vulnerable over stiff miles or races with sustained pressure.
Others to Watch
Invincible Duke
- Consistent mid-sectionals but couldn’t find extra late.
- FSP: 103.68% — lacked punch.
- Needs controlled pace and may improve with headgear tweaks or a more prominent ride.
Threatening
- Slightly erratic energy distribution.
- Slowest closing 2f among top five — suggests distance may be at limit or track didn’t suit.
- May need headgear again; look for return to Chelmsford or similar.
Troy Story & Hot Property
- Both failed to achieve par standards beyond the halfway point.
- Hot Property had the lowest FSP (95.36%) and collapsed completely.
Key Speed & Acceleration Metrics
| Horse | Top MPH | Furlong | Acceleration Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallant | 39.00 | 7f | Strongest mid-late race move |
| Lazieelunch | 39.01 | 8f | Fastest finishing furlong, most efficient |
| Transparent | 37.5 | 3–5f | Early mover, inefficient fade late |
Summary: Horses to Follow
| Horse | Note |
|---|---|
| Gallant | Late-speed weapon, peak MPH at 7f. Suited by held-up ride on AW. |
| Lazieelunch | Most efficient closer, fastest late MPH. Craves stamina test or pace. |
Final Word
From a time and sectionals-only lens, Lazieelunch emerges as the most energy-efficient and potentially progressive horse, while Gallant impressed most with peak MPH and tactical speed. Both are worth tracking, especially when conditions match (sharp track, 7f-1m). Transparent ran to par but showed limitations under pressure.
gerry
Mare
The going really punished my horses today and by all accounts more to come tomorrow.
Took me to late on to get out of it.
But you will find that a lot with speed horses softer going not suiting as well , But that can always be a good thing for further down the line so on this thread anyway i stick to plan and just be careful when ground changes.
Took me to late on to get out of it.
But you will find that a lot with speed horses softer going not suiting as well , But that can always be a good thing for further down the line so on this thread anyway i stick to plan and just be careful when ground changes.
gerry
Mare
Well as i have stated above the quick change of ground is most likely the biggest nightmare for punting.
There is so many things to analyse is the trainer been waiting for the rain and running horse down the park or not.
I suppose more trainers run there horse in soft waiting for better ground than other way round, As owners would not be happy knowing horse loved soft but got jarred in faster surface.
Which means of course there could be a lot of horses running on the softer today that don't like it but gets it handicapped better so be aware.
That does not mean i wont bet my speed horses today just like yesterday i got out it all be it late on.
So to today here the horses i have noted down.
1 35 EPSOM DOCKLANDS . I have already mentioned on the forum agreeing this is the bet of the day, I am hoping it will be fine on the softer ground with being 2nd in listed race at Longchamp on heavy. Ground is still only worry i have as not scared of the challengers.
2 10 EPSOM AGAINST THE WIND. This is not a easy race to weigh up for sure and although i have went for this being 3yold improving not sure of ground is bit of cavalry charge i was scared of a few also like RUBYS PROFIT and BLINKY they are both drawn double figures and with mine in 6 i thought that edge could be enough and should run well at least, remember the cover bet options in these races.
2 45 EPSOM JER BATT. I spoke about this race before where
mick has bet one and the ground has come for his for sure, again a race not for the faint hearted and will need be careful i see JER BATT JM JUNGLE DEMOCRACY DILLEMMA all drawn close and this is worth watching from the off how they start, I didnt right of VINTAGE CLARETS either in this and will be tough race to win.
5 40 EPSOM GET IT. Again were in the sprinter races so this looks like could be bookies day but i will be cover betting all my horses in these sprints, I gave ROUSING ENCORE and CIRCE chances in this but i was so impressed by the race GET IT ran last time i cant leave it now quick ans easy i am sure will run big race here.
7 15 DONCASTER AKKADIAN THUNDER. Unfortunately for me this horse had been backed before i got to race but i can see why.
Finished behind GET IT and absolutely loves doncaster and softer ground so looks like primed for this and betting tells you that's so.
6 07 LINGFIELD SPECIAL GHAIYYATH. This horses last race i noted to follow first 2 maybe 3 horses and the third run ok in similar race next time but the winner in my eyes franked the form by running well in better race it was hot fav and got beat but i think that's because they do rate it higher than these, And i can see how people think this horse is one of those that never wins well this will tell us more stepping up in distance i think will win.
There is so many things to analyse is the trainer been waiting for the rain and running horse down the park or not.
I suppose more trainers run there horse in soft waiting for better ground than other way round, As owners would not be happy knowing horse loved soft but got jarred in faster surface.
Which means of course there could be a lot of horses running on the softer today that don't like it but gets it handicapped better so be aware.
That does not mean i wont bet my speed horses today just like yesterday i got out it all be it late on.
So to today here the horses i have noted down.
1 35 EPSOM DOCKLANDS . I have already mentioned on the forum agreeing this is the bet of the day, I am hoping it will be fine on the softer ground with being 2nd in listed race at Longchamp on heavy. Ground is still only worry i have as not scared of the challengers.
2 10 EPSOM AGAINST THE WIND. This is not a easy race to weigh up for sure and although i have went for this being 3yold improving not sure of ground is bit of cavalry charge i was scared of a few also like RUBYS PROFIT and BLINKY they are both drawn double figures and with mine in 6 i thought that edge could be enough and should run well at least, remember the cover bet options in these races.
2 45 EPSOM JER BATT. I spoke about this race before where
mick has bet one and the ground has come for his for sure, again a race not for the faint hearted and will need be careful i see JER BATT JM JUNGLE DEMOCRACY DILLEMMA all drawn close and this is worth watching from the off how they start, I didnt right of VINTAGE CLARETS either in this and will be tough race to win.5 40 EPSOM GET IT. Again were in the sprinter races so this looks like could be bookies day but i will be cover betting all my horses in these sprints, I gave ROUSING ENCORE and CIRCE chances in this but i was so impressed by the race GET IT ran last time i cant leave it now quick ans easy i am sure will run big race here.
7 15 DONCASTER AKKADIAN THUNDER. Unfortunately for me this horse had been backed before i got to race but i can see why.
Finished behind GET IT and absolutely loves doncaster and softer ground so looks like primed for this and betting tells you that's so.
6 07 LINGFIELD SPECIAL GHAIYYATH. This horses last race i noted to follow first 2 maybe 3 horses and the third run ok in similar race next time but the winner in my eyes franked the form by running well in better race it was hot fav and got beat but i think that's because they do rate it higher than these, And i can see how people think this horse is one of those that never wins well this will tell us more stepping up in distance i think will win.
Last edited:
JennyK
Gelding
Having booked Democracy Dilemma and JM Jungle, with a tiny covering bet on Desert Cop, I am very much hoping that the stat below, copied from a professional punter/tipster's assessment of the race, fails to hold.
"Go back to 2005
Horses aged 5
Over 15 career starts
Have a 0-63 record
The following horses fail
DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
JER BATT
MICHAELA'S BOY
JM JUNGLE
RHYTHM N HOOVES
NOGO'S DREAM
He also writes off Desert Cop because of the draw.
"Go back to 2005
Horses aged 5
Over 15 career starts
Have a 0-63 record
The following horses fail
DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
JER BATT
MICHAELA'S BOY
JM JUNGLE
RHYTHM N HOOVES
NOGO'S DREAM
He also writes off Desert Cop because of the draw.