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My latest effort

Good morning OK I have been changing things again the fact is If I had tried this yesterday I would have had the winner of the 1:25 Lingfield. I did try it out on the next couple of races and also one at Wolverhampton and all won, so I am hoping I have finally knocked the nail on the head. This will be my first test over the jumps using this my latest effort at Kelso 2:10 and the 2:40.

2:10
Aristo Du Plessis 85
Nuts Well 92
Meadowcroft Boy 98
Sleepy Haven 103
Teo Vivo 101
Ifandbutwhynot 83
Marcus Antonius 80

2:40
Fine Rightly 84
Bernardelli 112
De Vous A Moi 120
Ash Park 143
Final Assault 97
Jet Master 93
Spanish Fleet 104
 
Wolverhampton 2:55

Mythical Madness 84
Supersta 71
Perfect Cracker 94
Lacan 75
Trendsetter 60
Ready 62
Dutch Uncle 72
London 69
Byres Road 74
 
Today I am going EW on the selection as is currently available at 20/1, and looking at the top rated they are getting placed. So for me today it is Kempton 3:05 Fiftyshadesofgrey. Also I would say looking at the ratings it might do well also looking at the second top rated and backing that too, in this case Intransigent, who is available at 7/1

Intransigent 76
Quixote 58
Valbchek 58
Aguerooo 63
Firmdecisions 74
Fiftyshadesofgrey 78
Outer Space 55
Joey´s Destiny 61
Mullionheir 67
Dutch Art Dealer 69
Young John 75
Loyalty 62
War Department 74
Bahamian Dollar 52
 
In the Kempton 6:20 I am going against what should be a warm fav Absolute Blast, I will be backing Gleaming Girl to follow up with another win. It also might be worth taking a chance with Mezzotint in the opener at Lingfield.

Absolute Blast 64
Bint Dandy 83
Rebel Surge 74
Russian Radiance 86
Maggie Pink 68
Gleaming Girl 91
Lady Lydia 56
Stosur 84
 
Today I am looking at Chelmsford 7:30 and Vivat Rex e/w currently at 12/1

Bunbury 63
Zamperini 55
Vivat Rex 66
Berlusca 55
House Of Commons 59
Exceeding Power 57
Ravenhoe 57
Iberica Road 15
Monsieur Rieussec 49
Mercy Me 63
 
Lingfield 12:50

Chevallier 59
Loyalty 55
Franco´s Secret 54
Byres Road 41
Dutiful Son 54
Mezzotint 45
Best Example 58
 
Today I thought I might try jumps again so looking at Catterick 3:40

Blandfords Gunner 96
Mister Spingsprong 87
Herons Heir 103
Trust Thomas 98
Boss Des Mottes 92
Lightening Rod 98
Roxyfet 69
 
Southwell today 2:45 small field with just five runners but I think there is value to be found with Mia Cara.

Whatsthemessage 32
Dream Team 66
Upgrade 49
Haraka 67
Mia Cara 69
 
Today I am backing a horse making its AW debut in the 6:45 Newcastle, I think this will be a good price and if acts on AW should go well. One Boy is my selection, here are the ratings.

Rich Again 74
Foxy Forever 68
Aprovado 74
One Boy 78
Normal Equilibrium 46
Willbeme 51
Fredricka 69
Bahango 70
 
I am back with yet another effort Leopardtown 4:00

Carlingford Lough 110
Don Poli 100
Empire Of Dirt 114
Minella Rocco 104
More Of That 101
Road To Riches 97
Sizing John 113
Zabana 100
 
4:30 Wolverhampton

Gang Warfare 107
Oceane 108
Gavlar 106
Haines 105
Castilo Del Diablo 103
Isharah 104
Entihaa 99
Byron Flyer 91
Calvinist 117
Percy Veer 86
Treasure The Ridge 80
 
3:10 Leicester I have this close between three but Domesday Book currently 12/1 looks good value

Domesday Book 109
Mad Jack Mytton 97
Mercian Prince 108
Dark Flame 108
Always On The Run 94
Crosspark 98
Morning Reggie 85
 
3:30Lingfield

Poyle Vinnie 89
Kadrizzi 62
Dougan 73
Kasbah 91
Doctor Sardonicus 77
Zac Brown 79
Suqoor 21
Fast Track 101
Swiss Cross 32
 
Here I go again with yet another latest effort, I only put this together last night, and there is one part in the maths that I an not sure which way round should be calculated, so I will give both and see which one comes out on top. Also for the first time I am looking at overseas racing and have rated the 8:05 Sha tin(HONG KONG). So her is both sets of ratings for the same race.

ANTICIPATION 65
HELENE SUPER STAR 107
HELENE CHARISMA 103
AMBITIOUS CHAMPION 99
BOOMING DELIGHT 93
HAPPY PLACE 100
HAPPILABABY 86
RAGHU 84
LET US WIN 86
ENSURING 80
GREEN DISPATCH 97


ANTICIPATION 65
HELENE SUPER STAR 81
HELENE CHARISMA 79
AMBITIOUS CHAMPION 99
BOOMING DELIGHT 109
HAPPY PLACE 96
HAPPILABABY 98
RAGHU 96
LET US WIN 94
ENSURING 110
GREEN DISPATCH 95
 
@whu You seem to have a lot of "latest attempts" in fairly short time frames.
Are you keeping records of how your various versions do?
If not how do you know whether one attempt is better than another, also what do you think is the best way to measure whether a set of ratings are any good?
 
Hi ArkRoyal t0 be honest I have no idea if one is better than the other, plus I would not know how to measure wether a set of ratings is any good I would not know how to start, I just keep getting these ideas come to me and then I put them up, I do keep a record of all ideas I have though, I am trying to come up with a rating system where the top rated would be the selection. There are times when I think it looks good and then can not work out why the top rated lost, and then I will sit up practically all night trying to adjust the ratings to come up with what won so far without success, these ideas are all based on add, subtract, multiply and divide, I use excel to input them but that's as far as my knowledge of maths go. Thank You for getting back to me.
 
I think what ArkRoyal ArkRoyal is trying to get across is that you don't seem to leave your systems running for long enough before you've changed them. One system will never pick up every winner, but it might be that one of the systems you've passed over might well have made a profit over a longer period of time. I've read on here of quite a few people paper testing ideas for a year before using them to bet on.
One way to measure if your ratings are performing well is to keep track of how many of your top 3 rated horses win. If one of your top 3 rated wins around 55% of races then you've got a good set of ratings. More than that then happy days. But you need to measure this over a minimum of 3-6 months to get a real feel for it.
Hope this helps.
 
Thanks Nclad I noticed tonight my top 4 ratings were in the first four I will paper test these for a while now, one thing I would like some help with is I use within the ratings distance beaten, but I don't know how to calculate for horses that fell, unseated, ect. Also do you or any one know of a simple excel spreadsheet for keeping a record of selections.
 
3:45 Wolv I am going with my second lot of ratings as that produced the best result, the top 3 are rated red.

Boom The Groom 88
Doc Sportello 93
Encore D´Or 79
Judicial 104
Bowson Fred 91
Royal Birth 84
Robot Boy 97
Sign Of The Kodiac 88
Jordan Sport 106
Shamshon 99
Red Baron 8
 
whu said:
Hi ArkRoyal t0 be honest I have no idea if one is better than the other, plus I would not know how to measure wether a set of ratings is any good I would not know how to start, I just keep getting these ideas come to me and then I put them up, I do keep a record of all ideas I have though, I am trying to come up with a rating system where the top rated would be the selection. There are times when I think it looks good and then can not work out why the top rated lost, and then I will sit up practically all night trying to adjust the ratings to come up with what won so far without success, these ideas are all based on add, subtract, multiply and divide, I use excel to input them but that's as far as my knowledge of maths go. Thank You for getting back to me.
Click to expand...

You have butterfly syndrome and did so when you posted under your other username, twmills twmills Better to stick to one set of Ratings and apply them to races where additional analysis indicates a bet.
 
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