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My latest effort

twmills

twmills

Colt
Hi I am always searching and trying to come up with ways to pick horses on which to bet, yesterday I tried yet another idea as to how to rate a race, I tried two races in which I had the winner of both Cincuenta Pasos and Jordan James.
As I said this is another idea to produce a rating, and then to back the top rated, also remember I only put this together yesterday I do like to go straight in with my money and I not really paper trade, anyway today I have looked at the fillies H'Cap at Sandown 4:25 and these are my ratings for the race.

Ghinia 78
Crowning Glory 87
Catchment 73
Qamarain 86
Lady Perignon 86
Nicarra 81
 
Tomorrow looking at Yarmouth 4:25, so far 100% will it keep going.

All My Love 71
Beauty Sleep 81
Taffeta Lady 83
Corpus Chorister 85
Kath's Legacy 74
Notice 88
 
So far so good lets see if will keep going tomorrow, I have looked at two races one at Newbury 3:20, and my first time at trying the jumps at Newton Abbot 4:05.

Newbury
Cymro 104
Shakopee 51
Who Dares Wins 98
Mainstream 101
Man Look 103
New Caledonia 96
Southdown Lad 101

Newton Abbot
Miss Serious 128
Amigo 77
Belmount 114
Over The Bridge 116
Allow Dallow 120
Pawn Star 107
Strumble Head 118
 
Ok it was always going to happen both top rated lost, But hey I never expected not to loose at some point, I have learn' t by now that you can not win all the time. On to tomorrow, I am looking at a couple of races Catterick 3:00, and Newmarket 5:00. Friends of mine have also asked me to look at the Ayr Gold Cup, for anyone interested Magnus Maximus was the top rated, although I will only be betting the Catterick and Newmarket races.

CATT
Notalot 67
Tailor´s Row 77
Wedding Dress 27
Geophony 48
Miss Bates 73
Racemaker 52
Dandy Place 72
Law Power 60
Oceanic 57

NWMKT
Stockhill Diva 80
Dubka 88
Eager Beaver 37
Talent To Amuse 90
Elraazy 97
Gala 95
 
Lets keep going with today at Plumpton 4:30

Empty The Tank 25
Do We Like Him 16
Mr Bien 10
Lakeshore Lady 10
Little Windmill 23
On Your Max 37
Bennys Girl 32
 
Good luck with this, I am the same as you, can't be arsed with paper trading, real money keeps you concentrating.
 
These are the Exchange odds you should be looking for.

HorseRtg% ChanceFair Odds
8 Seychelloise8511.428.76
9 Cartmell Cleave8310.999.10
6 Highland Acclaim8210.789.27
2 Shamshon7910.159.85
3 Mustallib789.9410.06
4 Muir Lodge779.7310.28
5 Dougan759.3010.75
1 Related728.6711.54
12 Picture Dealer646.9814.33
7 Alqubbah626.5515.26
10 Baddilini565.2918.92
11 Queen's Pearl320.21473.00
 
Last edited:
I use a formula passed on to me some years back, it only reflects the accuracy of the ratings used, which can be any ratings available.
I am struggling to explain it at the moment, will try later.
 
Well done, nice price too.

I have had a look at 6:25 Ffos Las and these are my ratings.

3 Pensax Lad100.67
6 Nocturn97.17
4 Swirral Edge95.50
8 Maymyo89.67
7 Head Space88.33
5 Satchville Flyer87.33
9 Bapak Bangsawan79.50
 
Thanks Ferdy I see you have Pensax Lad 13 ahead of Satchville flyer, while I have Satchville flyer 14 ahead of Pensax Lad. Would still like to know more about the fair odds you showed earlier.
 
Just checked this out and it is the same method except for the fact that I don't normally take the over-round into account, so my figures are slightly higher.
 
Just finished looking at method and if I have it right then it looks like this with my ratings

Satchville Flyer 3.85

Pensax Lad 5.12

Head Space 6.20

Swirral Edge 7.10

Nocturn 8.07

Bapak Bangsawan 8.85

Equally Fast 9.71

Maymyo 10.21

Doc Sportello 195.65
 
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