My latest effort
- Thread starter twmills
- Start date
OnTheNod
Mare
Hi @whu i use the class of the race more say a class two race for instance, say my selection has won in class two company many times, then i use that class rating, but say it has only won once then i go into the race more, size of field; ratings of the horses beaten to determine whether the form is good or not.
Mostly i only back horses that have won unless using breeding and trainers stats, and a few other elememts for newcomers or the younger horses. Also if up in class i use the method of rating as explained in my earlier post but check the race the horse is coming from is strongish form also.
That is only a very basic overview of the method i use mainly because of the courses, going, and all the other elements that come into play as well.
Mostly i only back horses that have won unless using breeding and trainers stats, and a few other elememts for newcomers or the younger horses. Also if up in class i use the method of rating as explained in my earlier post but check the race the horse is coming from is strongish form also.
That is only a very basic overview of the method i use mainly because of the courses, going, and all the other elements that come into play as well.
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twmills
Colt
I am trying to put something together to produce a rating within excel my knowledge with excel only goes as far as basic maths, add, subtract, multiply and divide. so the ratings are along this way of thinking. last night I spent a lot of time thinking about how I could come up with a rating, different to what I had tried before and the advice from OnTheNod has had me thinking much more as to how to do this especially with class, and the other thing I have looked at more is weight, like weight of the winner compared with the weight of the horse I am trying to rate, including lengths beat and pounds per length.
So as it is called my latest effort. this now is my latest effort. I have looked at 3:55 Salisbury.
Captain Cat 94
Master Carpenter 84
Captain Morley 80
Beach Bar 92
Windshear 89
Landwade Lad 90
Zamperini 92
Fidaawy 96
Storm Rock 82
So as it is called my latest effort. this now is my latest effort. I have looked at 3:55 Salisbury.
Captain Cat 94
Master Carpenter 84
Captain Morley 80
Beach Bar 92
Windshear 89
Landwade Lad 90
Zamperini 92
Fidaawy 96
Storm Rock 82
OnTheNod
Mare
Good Luck! with the new method most of it is just trial and error, yes the weight carrying comes into play with class, but i believe the course type is a really major element, much like ourselves we take to certain surrounding better, and an example from sport golfers play better on certain courses etc.
OnTheNod
Mare
The best way is to group them into stiff, fairly stiff, easy, and the downhill ones, then of course rh or lh for the longer races, and then the surface flat, undulating, etc and finally if sharp or easy bends. The sand as i said i just use Lingfield and use Lingfield form only for the races.
A course and distance winner to me is always a bonus, but even then it has to be looked at from many other form angles; draw, weight, jockey, running positon, class of the others competing in the race etc.
OnTheNod
Mare
Lol! you are getting me to work hard here @whu yes FS are ok, i would forget Newcastle for a while or wait for C/D winners and see how the form balances with them.
With the FS ''speed'' column dont no how they get certain courses as stiff, the ones that are flat are mostly fairly easy, and if undulating they are easy or downhill more like Goodwood, Lingfield i would say is downhill and undulating, Epsom extreme downhill with sharp bends, Chester is tight and the draw is very important. The last two only certain horses can handle them i have found.
So i would only use the stiff in that column if the courses have the uphill finish.
With the FS ''speed'' column dont no how they get certain courses as stiff, the ones that are flat are mostly fairly easy, and if undulating they are easy or downhill more like Goodwood, Lingfield i would say is downhill and undulating, Epsom extreme downhill with sharp bends, Chester is tight and the draw is very important. The last two only certain horses can handle them i have found.
So i would only use the stiff in that column if the courses have the uphill finish.
OnTheNod
Mare
Yes that is why i dont use rates as such just as a general guide, even classes won in it has also to do with many other elements, and by knocking some out you can gradually hone in. Like Mick has done with his last two winners one he left out the trip, and the other the dead straight course, all the other elements balanced well as i could see fairly well, i suppose he has learnt over the years what he can skip out and stay front with the aid of the excellent prices he gets.
twmills
Colt
Hi SteveT I would love a copy of the spreadsheet Thank you very much the reason I have not posted my selections lately is because I have been continuing working at them trying to improve without much success and I did not want yo put them back up again until I was happy with them, I seem at the moment to keep going round in circles
OnTheNod
Mare
hiOnTheNod for this lay thread i use stakes of between 1 and 5 to keep my liability at or below 20 and as of 22 Oct my profit stands at 302.22 but if i used 1pt level stakes it would be 145.46 2pts would be 240.92 and 3pts would be 336.38 profit,as you know if you only use 1pt then it takes a long time to recover from any long losing runs but thankfully upto now it has never gone beyond 2 consecutive losing bets and my best run has been 25 consecutive correct lays
That is Great!
SteveT best not clutter up whu's thread though, the thing is when laying bigger money it is hard get it on with increasing stakes sometimes, yes two is my max also so far but i have only been going about 8 months.Good Luck!
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Same from me 