My AW Bets

[Deleted member 7256]

Saturday 8th February

My Ratings
Newcastle
3.55 (1) Plage De Havre (2) Northern Ruler (3) Gaassee / Knockbrex
4.28 (1) Humble Spark (2) Asgards Captain (3) Charlies Choice
5.00 (1) Pockley (2) Lezardriuex (3) Henery Hawk
5.30 (1) Blast The Dream (2) Bantz (3) Golden Thorn
6.00 (1) Warrant Holder (2) Nordic Norm (3) Redhot Whisper
6.30 (1) Gustav Graves (2) Three Beauz (3) Forest Gunner
7.00 (1) Oriental Prince (2) Bella Kopella (3) Captain Vallo / Tomorrow Day

Wolverhampton
4.40 (1) Urban Road (2) Yeoman (3) Dakota Power
5.15 (1) Michaelas Boy (2) Existent (3) We Never Stop
5.45 (1) Green Power (2) Prince Ali (3) Meet Me In Meraki
6.15 (1) The Watcher (2) Daring Flight (3) Political Power
6.45 (1) Autumn Rose (2) Romanovich (3) Overnight Oats
7.15 (1) Headshot (2) Quick Away (3) Scarfo
7.45 (1) Dash Power (2) Van Zant (3) Aspire To Glory
8.15 (1) Kinetic (2) Khangai (3) Alfheim

Selections
7.00 Newcastle - Tomorrow Day 5/2
Looks a competitive handicap this one where you could basically make a case for all eight runners to be honest , but im gonna side with the top weight Tomorrow Day who i think can go close. Arrives in decent form , a decent third last time out over this evenings CD , that was in a class 5 so todays drop to a 6 should be a plus i'd of thought / hope .. Has held his form well , since September hes won five of his ten races and in the other five he was there or thereabouts , and it caught my eye that all those wins have come here at Newcastle giving him a record here of five wins and two places from his nine runs overall , that record looks even better when you take his runs over CD where hes yet to be unplaced with four wins and two places from his six runs , so becoming somewhat of a course / course and distance specialist. Gets in on the same mark as his last race and though he hasnt won from a mark this high , he ran well enough on his sole attempt so im happy enough to think that he can go well again. Mark Usher sends just this one on the long haul from his Upper Lambourn base and i cant imagine him sending him here for the Toon air so im hoping for a solid run tonight , trainer does well when sending his horses here with a 33% strike rate overall. Jockey Kaiya Fraser on board for the first time and he does well when coming here , this season he has a 20% strike rate along with a profit of +£10.75. As i say a tight looking race and plenty look as though they could take a hand in this but im hopeful of a decent run by the selection.

A few EW selections to smaller stakes
5.00 Newcastle - Stallone 10/1
5.45 Wolverhampton - Egoiste 12/1 / Green Power 10/1
8.15 Wolverhampton - Percy Willis 14/1

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Saturday 8th February

My Ratings
Newcastle
3.55 (1) Plage De Havre 1st 5/4 (2) Northern Ruler (3) Gaassee / Knockbrex
4.28 (1) Humble Spark 2nd 12/1 (2) Asgards Captain (3) Charlies Choice
5.00 (1) Pockley 1st 15/8 (2) Lezardriuex 2nd 7/1 (3) Henery Hawk
5.30 (1) Blast The Dream 1st 3/1 (2) Bantz (3) Golden Thorn
6.00 (1) Warrant Holder 2nd 2/1 (2) Nordic Norm 1st 10/11 (3) Redhot Whisper 3rd
6.30 (1) Gustav Graves 2nd 5/4 (2) Three Beauz (3) Forest Gunner
7.00 (1) Oriental Prince Non Runner (2) Bella Kopella (3) Captain Vallo / Tomorrow Day 2nd 9/4

Wolverhampton
4.40 (1) Urban Road 1st 10/3 (2) Yeoman 3rd 3/1 (3) Dakota Power
5.15 (1) Michaelas Boy (2) Existent (3) We Never Stop
5.45 (1) Green Power (2) Prince Ali (3) Meet Me In Meraki 3rd 15/2
6.15 (1) The Watcher 1st 1/5 (2) Daring Flight (3) Political Power Non Runner
6.45 (1) Autumn Rose (2) Romanovich (3) Overnight Oats 2nd 3/1
7.15 (1) Headshot (2) Quick Away 1st 15/8 (3) Scarfo
7.45 (1) Dash Power 2nd 10/11 (2) Van Zant (3) Aspire To Glory
8.15 (1) Kinetic (2) Khangai 3rd 15/2 (3) Alfheim 2nd 11/2

Selections
7.00 Newcastle - Tomorrow Day 5/2 Lost (2nd)
Looks a competitive handicap this one where you could basically make a case for all eight runners to be honest , but im gonna side with the top weight Tomorrow Day who i think can go close. Arrives in decent form , a decent third last time out over this evenings CD , that was in a class 5 so todays drop to a 6 should be a plus i'd of thought / hope .. Has held his form well , since September hes won five of his ten races and in the other five he was there or thereabouts , and it caught my eye that all those wins have come here at Newcastle giving him a record here of five wins and two places from his nine runs overall , that record looks even better when you take his runs over CD where hes yet to be unplaced with four wins and two places from his six runs , so becoming somewhat of a course / course and distance specialist. Gets in on the same mark as his last race and though he hasnt won from a mark this high , he ran well enough on his sole attempt so im happy enough to think that he can go well again. Mark Usher sends just this one on the long haul from his Upper Lambourn base and i cant imagine him sending him here for the Toon air so im hoping for a solid run tonight , trainer does well when sending his horses here with a 33% strike rate overall. Jockey Kaiya Fraser on board for the first time and he does well when coming here , this season he has a 20% strike rate along with a profit of +£10.75. As i say a tight looking race and plenty look as though they could take a hand in this but im hopeful of a decent run by the selection.

A few EW selections to smaller stakes
5.00 Newcastle - Stallone 10/1 3rd
5.45 Wolverhampton - Egoiste 12/1 Unplaced / Green Power 10/1 Unplaced
8.15 Wolverhampton - Percy Willis 14/1 Unplaced (4th)

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Monday 10th January

Wolverhampton Ratings
4.25 (1) Finn Russell (2) English Spirit (3) Masqool / Paradoxical
5.00 (1) Queenofdestruction (2) Megaphone (3) Desert Champion
5.30 (1) Rosenpur (2) Buraback (3) Counsel
6.00 (1) Flaine (2) Jonny Garlic (3) Scarlet Sunset
6.30 (1) Ajrad (2) Miss Calculation (3) Bernie The Bear
7.00 (1) Match Anthem (2) Seas Of Elzaam (3) Heeratthetrack
7.30 (1) Busby (2) Zooks (3) Honrado / Foinix
8.00 (1) National Health (2) Zafaan (3) Ocean Ridge
8.30 (1) King Of Speed (2) Snooze Lane / Conquest Of Power (3) Ravenglass

No selections from me for today

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Monday 10th January

Wolverhampton Ratings
4.25 (1) Finn Russell (2) English Spirit 3rd 10/3 (3) Masqool 2nd 6/1 / Paradoxical 1st 10/3
5.00 (1) Queenofdestruction (2) Megaphone 1st EV (3) Desert Champion
5.30 (1) Rosenpur Non Runner (2) Buraback Non Runner (3) Counsel 1st 15/8
6.00 (1) Flaine (2) Jonny Garlic (3) Scarlet Sunset 1st 6/4
6.30 (1) Ajrad (2) Miss Calculation (3) Bernie The Bear
7.00 (1) Match Anthem 2nd 5/2 (2) Seas Of Elzaam 3rd 5/2 (3) Heeratthetrack
7.30 (1) Busby (2) Zooks (3) Honrado / Foinix VOID RACE
8.00 (1) National Health 2nd 7/1 (2) Zafaan (3) Ocean Ridge
8.30 (1) King Of Speed 1st 13/8 (2) Snooze Lane / Conquest Of Power 2nd 15/2 (3) Ravenglass

No selections from me for today

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Tuesday 11th February - Wolverhampton

4.30 (1) Sovereign Sea (2) Fashionelle (3) Muddy Mooy
5.00 (1) Marinakis (2) Sun Festival (3) Zumaaty
5.30 (1) Twistaline (2) Sunset In Paris (3) Brinton
6.00 (1) City Cyclone (2) Fools Rush in (3) Lord Rapscallion
6.30 (1) Path To Dubai (2) Heathen / Kitty Foyle (3) Optician
7.00 (1) Back Tomorrow (2) Piperstown (3) Coolaghmusic
7.30 (1) Bungle Bay (2) Bankrupt (3) Red Walls
8.00 (1) Maharajas Express (2) State Of Madness (3) Second Collection
8.30 (1) Wonder (2) Sax Appeal (3) Alpine Oasis

Selections
7.00 Wolverhampton - Back Tomorrow EW 15/2
Like the chances of back Tomorrow in this one although a few of them look to hold a decent chance if im being honest. The selection arrives in flying form having won his last three races. Dead heated with the re opposing Combustion last time out in a classified stakes race over this evenings CD , but im hopeful she can beat that rival this time round. Cant fault her consistency here over CD with three wins and a place from her five outings to date. Draw looks okay , class is fine and so is the draw , won from higher marks than todays , for me everything points to another decent run being on the cards. Rowan Scott in the saddle and hes here for just this one ride andhas won twice on the horse from his six rides to date. Caught my eye that this is the only runner on the card for trainer Ewan Whillans , and its a long old schlepp from Hawick to Wolverhampton so im assuming that they mean business. Has a 75% strike rate when coming here this term along with a profit of +£9.25. At the current price i think shes well worth an each way punt.

8.00 Wolverhampton - Basholo EW 16/1 / Spanish Angel EW 18/1
Open looking handicap where im gonna side with a couple at decent prices who if running to their best could well give the principals something to think about. Basholo gets in here from his last winning mark , which he won over CD back in December , and hes got a decent record here so im hopeful of a decent run tonight - four wins and four places over CD from fourteen runs , the draw , mark and class all have ticks in the right boxes and if on a going day i think he can go close here. Stella Barclay has her yard in decent order with a 27% strike rate over the last three weeks , whilst 3lb claimer Zak Wheatley comes here for just this one ride , two wins and six places to date so knows the horse well enough. Spanish Angel is the other one i like , as with Basholo hasnt been in the greatest form of late but on a going day would certainly be there or thereabouts , has won from much higher than todays mark and that gives me hope that a resurgence may well be round the corner , looks to be well berthed and no problem with the class of race. Ruth Carr knows how to ready one and she has a 12.3% strike rate here at Wolverhampton along with a decent profit of +£13.96. James Sullivan in the saddle and he knows the horse well having won on him four times and placed a further 10 times. Riding well here this term with a 16.7% strike rate. As i say long shots but if either / both are anywhere near their best i think they can go very close here.

7.30 Wolverhampton - Red Walls EW 11/1 / Bungle Bay 11/4
Two for me in this one. As an each way shot to nothing Red Walls appeals to me in this , ran a poor race last time when only managing fifth of ten over tonights CD , but before that had been enjoying a solid spell - 2,4,2,1 .. all over this course and distance , usually runs a decent race here tbh with two wins and five places over CD and overall at the course he has five wins under his belt along with eleven places , so definatley not one to be written off when coming here. Has won from higher marks than this one and doesnt look badly drawn to me. Lisa Williamson has just this one here this evening and she has a 12.5% strike rate when sending her runners here this term along with a small profit of +£4.00. Edward Greatrex takes the reigns and hes one from one aboard the horse , and he has a 19% strike rate when riding here overall. Bungle Bay is the other runner i like the chances of , comes into this in fair form , winning penultimate race over 7f here and then a fair second over todays trip at Newcastle , the fact that he gets in here off the same mark would have to give him a decent shout imho. Does well when coming here to race , five wins and four places from sixteen runs at the course overall and that improves when you look at his CD form with two wins and two places from six runs. Class , draw and mark all look okay to me and given his liking for the course i think he can be there or thereabouts when it matters. James Evans enjoying a purple patch at the moment with a 33% strike rate over the last three weeks , and Joe Leavy in the saddle , takes off a welcome 3lb with his claim and knows the horse well having ridden him seventeen times resulting in four wins and seven places. Like the trainer he too has been in decent form with an 18.9% strike rate in the past month along with a profit of +£13.72. Shouldnt be far away when it matters.

 

[rbtblb82]

Backed you (Sean) at Meydan last Friday, 2nd at 16/1

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Tuesday 11th February - Wolverhampton

4.30 (1) Sovereign Sea 2nd 7/4 (2) Fashionelle (3) Muddy Mooy 1st 15/8
5.00 (1) Marinakis 3rd 8/13 (2) Sun Festival 2nd 4/1 (3) Zumaaty
5.30 (1) Twistaline (2) Sunset In Paris (3) Brinton Non Runner
6.00 (1) City Cyclone Non Runner (2) Fools Rush in (3) Lord Rapscallion 1st 10/3
6.30 (1) Path To Dubai (2) Heathen 1st 9/2 / Kitty Foyle (3) Optician 2nd 5/1
7.00 (1) Back Tomorrow (2) Piperstown 1st 7/4 (3) Coolaghmusic 3rd 10/1
7.30 (1) Bungle Bay 1st 11/4 (2) Bankrupt (3) Red Walls
8.00 (1) Maharajas Express 1st 4/1 (2) State Of Madness (3) Second Collection
8.30 (1) Wonder 3rd 2/1 (2) Sax Appeal 1st 13/2 (3) Alpine Oasis

Selections
7.00 Wolverhampton - Back Tomorrow EW 15/2 Unplaced
Like the chances of back Tomorrow in this one although a few of them look to hold a decent chance if im being honest. The selection arrives in flying form having won his last three races. Dead heated with the re opposing Combustion last time out in a classified stakes race over this evenings CD , but im hopeful she can beat that rival this time round. Cant fault her consistency here over CD with three wins and a place from her five outings to date. Draw looks okay , class is fine and so is the draw , won from higher marks than todays , for me everything points to another decent run being on the cards. Rowan Scott in the saddle and hes here for just this one ride andhas won twice on the horse from his six rides to date. Caught my eye that this is the only runner on the card for trainer Ewan Whillans , and its a long old schlepp from Hawick to Wolverhampton so im assuming that they mean business. Has a 75% strike rate when coming here this term along with a profit of +£9.25. At the current price i think shes well worth an each way punt.

8.00 Wolverhampton - Basholo EW 16/1 2nd 12/1 / Spanish Angel EW 18/1 Unplaced
Open looking handicap where im gonna side with a couple at decent prices who if running to their best could well give the principals something to think about. Basholo gets in here from his last winning mark , which he won over CD back in December , and hes got a decent record here so im hopeful of a decent run tonight - four wins and four places over CD from fourteen runs , the draw , mark and class all have ticks in the right boxes and if on a going day i think he can go close here. Stella Barclay has her yard in decent order with a 27% strike rate over the last three weeks , whilst 3lb claimer Zak Wheatley comes here for just this one ride , two wins and six places to date so knows the horse well enough. Spanish Angel is the other one i like , as with Basholo hasnt been in the greatest form of late but on a going day would certainly be there or thereabouts , has won from much higher than todays mark and that gives me hope that a resurgence may well be round the corner , looks to be well berthed and no problem with the class of race. Ruth Carr knows how to ready one and she has a 12.3% strike rate here at Wolverhampton along with a decent profit of +£13.96. James Sullivan in the saddle and he knows the horse well having won on him four times and placed a further 10 times. Riding well here this term with a 16.7% strike rate. As i say long shots but if either / both are anywhere near their best i think they can go very close here.

7.30 Wolverhampton - Red Walls EW 11/1 Unplaced / Bungle Bay 11/4 1st 11/4
Two for me in this one. As an each way shot to nothing Red Walls appeals to me in this , ran a poor race last time when only managing fifth of ten over tonights CD , but before that had been enjoying a solid spell - 2,4,2,1 .. all over this course and distance , usually runs a decent race here tbh with two wins and five places over CD and overall at the course he has five wins under his belt along with eleven places , so definatley not one to be written off when coming here. Has won from higher marks than this one and doesnt look badly drawn to me. Lisa Williamson has just this one here this evening and she has a 12.5% strike rate when sending her runners here this term along with a small profit of +£4.00. Edward Greatrex takes the reigns and hes one from one aboard the horse , and he has a 19% strike rate when riding here overall. Bungle Bay is the other runner i like the chances of , comes into this in fair form , winning penultimate race over 7f here and then a fair second over todays trip at Newcastle , the fact that he gets in here off the same mark would have to give him a decent shout imho. Does well when coming here to race , five wins and four places from sixteen runs at the course overall and that improves when you look at his CD form with two wins and two places from six runs. Class , draw and mark all look okay to me and given his liking for the course i think he can be there or thereabouts when it matters. James Evans enjoying a purple patch at the moment with a 33% strike rate over the last three weeks , and Joe Leavy in the saddle , takes off a welcome 3lb with his claim and knows the horse well having ridden him seventeen times resulting in four wins and seven places. Like the trainer he too has been in decent form with an 18.9% strike rate in the past month along with a profit of +£13.72. Shouldnt be far away when it matters.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Wednesday 12th February

Southwell
11.55 (1) Moon Over The Sea (2) Back From Dubai (3) Fiftyshadesofrev
12.25 (1) Alioski (2) Harry The Haggler (3) Smokey Malone
12.55 (1) Agent Mayfair (2) Stallone (3) Lauras Breeze
1.30 (1) First Ambition (2) Picturesque / Surrey Shadow (3) Groovy Baby
2.05 (1) Walking On Clouds (2) Mumayaz (3) Master Dandy
2.40 (1) Ash Wednesday (2) City Cyclone (3) Hierarchy
3.15 (1) Orangesandlemons (2) Zabeel Rain (3) Manyana Blue
3.50 (1) Easily Convinced (2) McKenna (3) Blue Seeker
4.20 (1) Cut To The Chase (2) Soames Forsythe (3) H Key Lails

Kempton
4.25 (1) Artician (2) Bell Shot / Brasil Power (3) Hieronymous
5.00 (1) Ballarat Bertie (2) Unfortunate Heir (3) Galette
5.30 (1) Manton Road (2) Perfect Parole (3) Appleblossomwhite
6.00 (1) Modern Day (2) Megalithic (3) Political Power
6.30 (1) More Than A Feelin (2) Gaiety Musical (3) Radiant Beauty
7.00 (1) Heathcliff (2) Kings Lynn (3) Cajetan
7.30 (1) Upepo (2) Spectacular Style (3) Eton Blue
8.00 (1) South Dakota Sioux (2) Our Dagger (3) Stacey Racey
8.30 (1) Kondratiev Wave (2) Split Elevens (3) Fact Or Fable

Selections
7.00 Kempton - Heathcliff 2/1 / Aramis Grey EW 7/1
Couple of the runners stand out for me in this one , first one of those is Heathcliff who comes into this in fine form , since going handicapping his form figures are - 1,3,1,1,2,1,4 .. with five of those coming here at Kempton , in fact hes never been unplaced here and over CD hes placed on both his runs to date. Ran a decent enough race when a length and three quarters fourth over todays trip at Newcastle , bit unlucky in that race as he was short of room when making his move but was running on well at the finish and given a bit more luck this time round i think he'll be making his presence felt. That was a sound effort after a 74 day lay off and with that outing under his saddle im hopeful that he can go well / better at a course he obviously excels at. Jamie Fanshawe is one of the shrewdest operators imho and he has just this one here this evening which could be a pointer in itself , has a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks and does well when sending his runners here with an 18% strike rate overall. Daniel Muscutt is re united with the horse and he seems to have a good relationship with him with three wins and a place from his four rides to date. Has a 14% strike rate over the last three weeks and a 16.7% strike rate when riding here this season. When trainer and jockey have paired up over the last three weeks they come away with a 25% strike rate. Should be on the premises. Aramis Grey is the other one i think could go well at what i think is a decent price , been off 56 days and in that time has left Rae Guests yard for Jack Jones' , when last seen she was coming back from 88 days off and ran a blinder over CD to come a neck second to Amazonian Dream , so if returning anywhere near that sort of form then i can see her going close here. Proved to be a pretty consistent sort for previous trainer and like my other selection has a solid record here at Kempton with two wins and six places from her eight runs here overall , and over CD she has two wins and five places from seven runs so think its safe to say she knows her way round here. Looks to be decently drawn and the fact that she gets in here from the same mark as that neck second last time out makes me think that if shes ready to roll then she can certainly go close here this evening. As i said having her first run for Jack Jones , and hopefully the change of scenery can help to bring about a change of luck as she hasnt won since 2023. Trainer been in decent form with a 33% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and has a 20% strike rate when coming here overall. Regular pilot Callum Shepherd on board , knows the horse well with seven wins and seventeen places to date , has a 20.8% strike rate in the last month along with a profit of +£22.75. Can see her going well if fit and ready.

12.25 Southwell - Smokey Malone 3/1
Harry The Haggler looks sure to go well but i like the chances of Smokey Malone more tbh , showed improved form last time out when beating Zafaan by a short head over this afternoons CD , and im hoping that now returning to handicaps he can go well again and hopefully get his head in front. Has won from higher marks than todays , and has won four times here at Shuvvel and placing a further five times from fourteen runs. Won and placed over CD so no problems there , and his last three wins have come round here so im hoping he can make it four. Trainers only runner at the meeting and been amongst the winners with a 20% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , Dylan Hogan rode the horse to that lto win giving him his seventh win on the horse to date (and placed sixteen times) and hes been in fine form of late with a 23.8% strike rate in the last month and a tidy profit of +£15.75 , and when teaming up with the trainer over the last three weeks the pair have a 50% strike rate. Should be in the thick of things.

5.30 Kempton - Manton Road 5/2
Competitive looking race this one but im gonna side with the bang in form Manton Road who comes into this in search of the three timer , and i think theres every chance that he can get it. Since moving to Gay Kelleways yard has proved a revelation with figures of - 3,2,1,1 .. and unlucky not to have three firsts tbh as got his head in front in his second race for the stable but was judged to have interfered with a rival so was placed second , the rival that was awarded that race , Perfect Ruby , is in opposition once again but i think that the selection can confirm the original placings here and come out on top. Has gone up 3lb for that win but given his current form i dont think that will hinder his chances too much. Placed on sole start here , and has won and placed at the distance. Gay Kelleway sends just this one to the meeting this evening , and she has a 67% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and a 50% strike rate in the last month along with a profit of +£12.50 so has her string in decent order , has a 100% strike rate when sending her runners here this term alongside a profit of +£11.50. Luke Morris has struck up a decent partnership with the horse with three wins and two places from his six rides to date and he has a 19% strike rate over the last three weeks and when riding for the trainer over the same period they come away with a 100% strike rate. Should be getting involved at the business end of things.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Late addition to todays selections Manton Road in the 5.30 at Kempton , hopefully it pays off.

Decent enough day yesterday with Bungle Bay obliging at 11/4 and Basholo justifying each way support with a second at 16/1 .. only done by a half length so solid effort that .. Ratings did okay as well .. Fingers crossed for a winner or two today and that the ratings do okay again

 

[tacker]

Hi @Sean, I read this last night and felt the 7.00 kemp was too difficult and wide open to whoever ran to somewhere near their best.

12.25 south, my first thought was HARRY THE HAGGLER rated 55 lto divided horses rated 61 & 64 so it looked to be a notch up up from SMOKEY MALONE'S rated 50 last run where he just got the better of a horse rated 48 with horses further back rated lower.
So then i was hoping to see the sectionals/times from when both horses competed over the wolves 12f (two runs back) confirm HTH as the slightly better horse but it wasn't the case, in fact SM ran the race 10s faster, this might have been due in small part to the track conditions but more likely down to the pace of both races but it was enough to make me wonder.
I did include HTH in a trixie last night but these numbers were enough to put me off any further bets.
Good luck.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Cheers T tacker , i like the chances of HTH as i said in the write up but i think the fact that he hasnt won or placed at the course in his two runs to date put me off slightly and put me onto SM who has won here and with the trainer / jockey doing well thought that at the prices worth a punt. Quite a difficult day overall i think. Best of luck with your bets today

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Wednesday 12th February

Southwell
11.55 (1) Moon Over The Sea 2nd 11/4 (2) Back From Dubai (3) Fiftyshadesofrev 3rd 9/2
12.25 (1) Alioski 2nd 10/1 (2) Harry The Haggler 1st 7/4 (3) Smokey Malone 3rd 15/8
12.55 (1) Agent Mayfair 1st 13/8 (2) Stallone (3) Lauras Breeze
1.30 (1) First Ambition Non Runner (2) Picturesque / Surrey Shadow 1st 15/8 (3) Groovy Baby
2.05 (1) Walking On Clouds (2) Mumayaz 1st 13/2 (3) Master Dandy
2.40 (1) Ash Wednesday (2) City Cyclone (3) Hierarchy 2nd 5/2
3.15 (1) Orangesandlemons 1st 6/4 (2) Zabeel Rain (3) Manyana Blue 3rd 9/2
3.50 (1) Easily Convinced (2) McKenna 3rd 5/2 (3) Blue Seeker
4.20 (1) Cut To The Chase (2) Soames Forsythe 1st 9/2 (3) H Key Lails Non Runner

Kempton
4.25 (1) Artician (2) Bell Shot / Brasil Power 3rd 13/2 (3) Hieronymous 2nd 8/1
5.00 (1) Ballarat Bertie (2) Unfortunate Heir Non Runner (3) Galette
5.30 (1) Manton Road 3rd 15/8 (2) Perfect Parole (3) Appleblossomwhite 1st 11/4
6.00 (1) Modern Day 2nd 10/11 (2) Megalithic (3) Political Power
6.30 (1) More Than A Feelin (2) Gaiety Musical 1st 7/2 (3) Radiant Beauty
7.00 (1) Heathcliff 2nd 5/1 (2) Kings Lynn (3) Cajetan
7.30 (1) Upepo 3rd 9/2 2) Spectacular Style (3) Eton Blue
8.00 (1) South Dakota Sioux 2nd 10/3 (2) Our Dagger 1st 8/11 (3) Stacey Racey
8.30 (1) Kondratiev Wave 2nd 13/8 (2) Split Elevens 1st 10/3 (3) Fact Or Fable 3rd 11/1

Selections
7.00 Kempton - Heathcliff 2/1 Lost (2nd) / Aramis Grey EW 7/1 Unplaced
Couple of the runners stand out for me in this one , first one of those is Heathcliff who comes into this in fine form , since going handicapping his form figures are - 1,3,1,1,2,1,4 .. with five of those coming here at Kempton , in fact hes never been unplaced here and over CD hes placed on both his runs to date. Ran a decent enough race when a length and three quarters fourth over todays trip at Newcastle , bit unlucky in that race as he was short of room when making his move but was running on well at the finish and given a bit more luck this time round i think he'll be making his presence felt. That was a sound effort after a 74 day lay off and with that outing under his saddle im hopeful that he can go well / better at a course he obviously excels at. Jamie Fanshawe is one of the shrewdest operators imho and he has just this one here this evening which could be a pointer in itself , has a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks and does well when sending his runners here with an 18% strike rate overall. Daniel Muscutt is re united with the horse and he seems to have a good relationship with him with three wins and a place from his four rides to date. Has a 14% strike rate over the last three weeks and a 16.7% strike rate when riding here this season. When trainer and jockey have paired up over the last three weeks they come away with a 25% strike rate. Should be on the premises. Aramis Grey is the other one i think could go well at what i think is a decent price , been off 56 days and in that time has left Rae Guests yard for Jack Jones' , when last seen she was coming back from 88 days off and ran a blinder over CD to come a neck second to Amazonian Dream , so if returning anywhere near that sort of form then i can see her going close here. Proved to be a pretty consistent sort for previous trainer and like my other selection has a solid record here at Kempton with two wins and six places from her eight runs here overall , and over CD she has two wins and five places from seven runs so think its safe to say she knows her way round here. Looks to be decently drawn and the fact that she gets in here from the same mark as that neck second last time out makes me think that if shes ready to roll then she can certainly go close here this evening. As i said having her first run for Jack Jones , and hopefully the change of scenery can help to bring about a change of luck as she hasnt won since 2023. Trainer been in decent form with a 33% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and has a 20% strike rate when coming here overall. Regular pilot Callum Shepherd on board , knows the horse well with seven wins and seventeen places to date , has a 20.8% strike rate in the last month along with a profit of +£22.75. Can see her going well if fit and ready.

12.25 Southwell - Smokey Malone 3/1 Lost (3rd)
Harry The Haggler looks sure to go well but i like the chances of Smokey Malone more tbh , showed improved form last time out when beating Zafaan by a short head over this afternoons CD , and im hoping that now returning to handicaps he can go well again and hopefully get his head in front. Has won from higher marks than todays , and has won four times here at Shuvvel and placing a further five times from fourteen runs. Won and placed over CD so no problems there , and his last three wins have come round here so im hoping he can make it four. Trainers only runner at the meeting and been amongst the winners with a 20% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , Dylan Hogan rode the horse to that lto win giving him his seventh win on the horse to date (and placed sixteen times) and hes been in fine form of late with a 23.8% strike rate in the last month and a tidy profit of +£15.75 , and when teaming up with the trainer over the last three weeks the pair have a 50% strike rate. Should be in the thick of things.

5.30 Kempton - Manton Road 5/2 Lost (3rd)
Competitive looking race this one but im gonna side with the bang in form Manton Road who comes into this in search of the three timer , and i think theres every chance that he can get it. Since moving to Gay Kelleways yard has proved a revelation with figures of - 3,2,1,1 .. and unlucky not to have three firsts tbh as got his head in front in his second race for the stable but was judged to have interfered with a rival so was placed second , the rival that was awarded that race , Perfect Ruby , is in opposition once again but i think that the selection can confirm the original placings here and come out on top. Has gone up 3lb for that win but given his current form i dont think that will hinder his chances too much. Placed on sole start here , and has won and placed at the distance. Gay Kelleway sends just this one to the meeting this evening , and she has a 67% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and a 50% strike rate in the last month along with a profit of +£12.50 so has her string in decent order , has a 100% strike rate when sending her runners here this term alongside a profit of +£11.50. Luke Morris has struck up a decent partnership with the horse with three wins and two places from his six rides to date and he has a 19% strike rate over the last three weeks and when riding for the trainer over the same period they come away with a 100% strike rate. Should be getting involved at the business end of things.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

well done with Harry The Haggler T tacker , least i got a run for my money with Smokey M , so i cant complain

 

[tacker]

well done with Harry The Haggler T tacker , least i got a run for my money with Smokey M , so i cant complain

Did you get the best of runs @Sean ?

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Did you get the best of runs @Sean ?

Dunno didnt watch it but it came third so i assume he was trying

 

[tacker]

Dunno didnt watch it but it came third so i assume he was trying

Watch it

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Thursday 13th February

Chelmsford
4.25 (1) The Craftymaster (2) Alright Sunshine / Currumbin (3) Tradesman
5.00 (1) War Zone (2) Tilsworth Only Ta (3) Starshot
5.30 (1) Secret Mistral (2) Twilight Fun (3) Dashing Harry
6.00 (1) Noble Victory (2) Massimo Blue (3) Star Zia
6.30 (1) Above (2) Rebel Path (3) Rebel Empire / Monsieur Beaulieau
7.00 (1) Maid Of Killybegs (2) No Release (3) Freak Encounter
7.30 (1) Missile Mac (2) La Mer Grise (3) Navarre Special
8.00 (1) Pearl Of Hope (2) Magical Treasure (3) Likealot
8.30 (1) Solanna (2) Switchel / Mc'Ted (3) Jenson Benson

No selections for today

 

[Deleted member 7256]

No luck with todays selections , two thirds and Heathcliff was done by a neck , so bit miffed but it is what it is and we move on .. no selections for Thursday but there looks to be a few likely ones for Friday

 

[tacker]

Dunno didnt watch it but it came third so i assume he was trying

" so i presume he was trying"
We will all watch races and have different opinions of what we think we saw and in my view this wasn't a ride that Dylan Hogan should be proud of, drawn next to the rail he soon found himself wider and well back by the time they reached the first bend, little attempt to get closer he was wider by the time they got to the final bend and still plenty to do. It's then we need to take closer notice of the jockey and i don't think he put in the effort i've seen from him before, it's about opinions but one factor i believe worth taking account of is Distance Run which we'll no doubt see in the coming days, it doesn't take much to make a difference in what's supposed to be a tight handicap.

Client Challenge

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[Deleted member 7256]

" so i presume he was trying"
We will all watch races and have different opinions of what we think we saw and in my view this wasn't a ride that Dylan Hogan should be proud of, drawn next to the rail he soon found himself wider and well back by the time they reached the first bend, little attempt to get closer he was wider by the time they got to the final bend and still plenty to do. It's then we need to take closer notice of the jockey and i don't think he put in the effort i've seen from him before, it's about opinions but one factor i believe worth taking account of is Distance Run which we'll no doubt see in the coming days, it doesn't take much to make a difference in what's supposed to be a tight handicap.

Client Challenge

www.attheraces.com

Yeah just watched it and have to agree with you T tacker it was a poor ride / poor positioning , with better positioning he'd of been closer and he had enough in the tank to get closer than he did the way he was going at the end