Meritform

[hedgehog]

Trying a bit of form reading so probably doomed

Tampa bay 21.00

3 most consistent
Bitcoin passion lto 14k
Alley Oop Johnny 47k
Kid drama 14k

Aoj stands out which isn't surprising. Lto 4th to doc boy which lto was unp in a 158k race and previously won a maiden as 2/5f 25k. Why aoj is in 11k is just plain weird.

Selection alley Oop Johnny

Fonner down 1.09

Mr tickle 11k
Blue harbour 12k
American League 8k

This should be between Mr tickle and blue harbour. Mr tickle is very consistent and in the last 3 races has only been beaten once, 2nd to blue harbour when both 2/1jf. Mr tickle has beaten American League

Selection blue harbour

Good luck this evening

 

[hedgehog]

Jackform , do you mind my posting on your thread? I'd not like to annoy you in any way

Gulfstream 21.36

Smack 5 32k
Fallen leaf 12 16k
Dixieincandyland 6 32k

This should be between S and D

D lto 2nd at 7/1 beaten by miss aurament 7/4f which was a lto winner of a 28k race as 9/2 3f. Third was awsum roar, a non runner in today's race, 2/1 2f and lto winner of a 18k race as 11/8 2f. The first 3 home in Ds lto race all were lto winners.

Selection dixieincandyland

Apologies Jackform if I've annoyed again

Good luck this evening

 

[Jackform]

hedgehog, I try not to get annoyed nowadays , except at myself. Like yesterday when i compiled a pen-and-paper chart and then wiped it when I tried to post it - Doh!

 

[Jackform]

Wiped my post again yesterday but proved no prob as GGF was abandoned . Copied and pasted today to make sure today .

Gulfstream (fast dirt) claimer 3yo+ over 8f and 10 run.
9.10 (race 7) Ladbrokes expected 09.25* 2, 7, 8, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these.
1. 41 = 100/1 Meritform fair odds
2*. 250 = 4/1 (9/4) Interest. LTO 8 of 11 -11L (11/2) Gulfstream?
3. 60 =35/1
4. 55 = 40/1 (12/1) (La Tres Jolie)
5. 31 = 1000/1
6. 50 = 50/1
7*. 240 = 4/1 (4/1) Silly Notion. LTO won (11/2) Tampa Bay debut race February!
8*. 250 = 4/1 (7/2) Wicked Solution. LTO 9 of 9 (17/5) Gulfstream last month?
9*. 196 = 11/2 (5/1)
10*. 216 = 5/1 (9/20 Teacher Drama. LTO 5 of 8 – 6L (9/2) Tampa Bay

Comment: (my forecast prices seem to be coming out pretty clse to Ladbrokes) Not sure about the two top rated so dutch Silly Notion and Teacher Drama for me would be a bet>

ATR form verdict in comparison.
SILLY NOTION shaped with an abundance of promise when winning on debut and could feasibly follow up. La Tres Jolie is feared most, while a big run from Teacher Drama would also come as no surprise.
Top Tip: SILLY NOTION (7)
Watch out for: LA TRES JOLIE (4)

 

[tacker]

Jackform and Chesham, I've been using the sporting Life site which is pretty good but not great. It at last has some form. I will definitely look at timeform. I'll leave a proper investigation until the weekend. Thank you both for having such useful contributions, it makes a reassuring change from covid 19.

Good luck

hedgehog Another option is DRF....Daily Racing Form.

 

[Jackform]

Now that we are losing the plot and getting into wagering on raindrops running down window panes how about the Faux Grand National? - I just hope we don't have a false start . It surely has to go to a form horse so these are the Meritform from the short end of the forecast market:

1. 262 Tiger Roll (5/1)
18. 256 Definitely Red (14/1)
29. 251 Any Second Now (10/1)
39. 247 Kimberlite Candy (16/1)
40. 213 Walk In The Mill (16/1)
17. 200 Burrows Saint (12/1)

Comment: Could omit Tiger Roll and do a punters book the rest - or maybe not that far gone yet ?

 

[hedgehog]

Thanks Jackform for being so understanding, much appreciated. Good luck with your race.

Thanks T tacker and I think drf is subscription which is a bit expensive for 50p bets. If this plague lasts longer I may use the drf though.

Gulfstream 21.41 7 runners 30k 1m dirt

So cunning 14/1
Off topic 8/15f
Final cut 11/2 2f

FC lto won 21k as 7/2 2f by the placings won lto
2nd coworker 4/1 4f lto won 14k as 5/2f
3rd peppered 3/1 3f lto 3rd 38k as 11/4f

Each way selection final cut

 

[pete]

Sorry, only just noticing this thread. Pay more attention than normal to jockey/trainer combo's at some of the smaller US tracks. Will Rogers used to be my local track when I was in Oklahoma. If you let me know which tracks you are looking at in advance I may be able to get you some PP's (past performance cards) that contain relevant stats etc.

 

[Jackform]

My ratings are currently doing well even if I call the race wrong, so that's quite satisfying at present - early days of course.

Gulfstream (dirt fast)
22.20 (race 10) Ladbrokes expected 09.30* no's 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11 indicating a win restricted to these.

2*. 242 = 7/1 Meritform fair odds (Ladbrokes 7/1) Kroy. LTO 2 of 10 - 2 3/4L Gulfstream last July?
3*. 244 = 7/1 (5/2) First Premio. 4 0f 14 -1L Keenland last October?
11* 237 = 7/1 (4/1) Halladay. 4 of 8 -2.25L Tampa Bay in February

Comment: Time off track makes it look difficult?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
FIRST PREMIO was only beaten three-parts of a length in Grade 1 company on his latest outing last October and despite the absence, he is very much the one to beat. The consistent Halladay performed well at Grade 3 level latest and he looks sure to give another good account. Penalty (Meritform 175 = 12/1 fair) and Thunder Ride (Meritform 178 = 11/1 fair) are others to note.

Top Tip: FIRST PREMIO (3)
Watch out for: HALLADAY (11)

 

[hedgehog]

Thanks pete , I may ask for your help if uk racing doesn't start in may. I suppose that depends on how many silly people go out this weekend and over Easter.

Tampa bay 20.30 1m0.5f turf 11k

Taking the 5 most consistent from the field as the favourites are not very consistent

Marnie girl 8 8k
War rose 6 14k
Publicist 4 10k
Pallas athene 7 14k
Capoeira 9 10k

C lto won 10k over same course and distance, firm as 7/1 3f lto 2nd
2nd vaunt 4/7f lto won 14k as 7/4jf
3rd catsoutofthebag 4/1 2f lto upl as 3/1 j2f 35k

Currently C is 14s so

Each way selection capoeira

Good luck today

 

[hedgehog]

Try another one

Tampa bay 18.30 11k 5f turf

5 most consistent from the field
The zip zip man 5 13k
Midnight blue note 10 14k
Kholstomer 10 8k
Candy cove 8 7k
Smoky blues 8 14k

I think this should be between tzzm , mbn and sb.

I've discounted sb leaving tzzm and mbn. With these 2 there is good form.

Tzzm lto 3rd 13k 12/1 lto2 won
1st colonel Tom 5/4f lto upl 13/2 52k
2nd Atlantic sun 6/1 4f lto 2nd 3/1 2f 14k

Mbn lto 2nd 7/4f 14k lto2 4th
1st long blade 5/1 4f lto won 10/3 3f 7k not won 15/8 2f 15k put a 4 timer together
3rd I'm cardinal, also in today's race, 6/1 5f lto 4th 7/2 25k

Tzzm is very consistent and the choice is between a big class dropper or for mbn a progressive horse in the form. I'm siding with the big class dropper and the consistent horse.

Selection the zip zip man

Good luck today

 

[hedgehog]

Hello pete, does American racing favour lto winners and low odds horse's please?

Good luck today

 

[pete]

Hello @

pete, does American racing favour lto winners and low odds horse's please?

It can do hedgehog , however when the ground is "sloppy" like with Oaklawn today, I would avoid the lower priced horses. I have not really followed US racing for quite a while to be honest, but towards the end, I was concentrating on stats more than anything, trainers records with horses who dropped a couple of grades, or jockey/trainer combo's that kind of thing. I also used to follow longer priced horses with lots of closing speed in 7f+ races at lower grade tracks in lower grade races.
I stopped because beating the takeout for me was almost impossible, but with uk bookies now pricing these up, it should be beatable to play the front end of the market. I would stick with the better races (allowance races) where most have exposed form.

 

[Jackform]

The ratings proved their worth again Halladay 3rd top won 3/1, Kroy 2nd top 2nd 10/1

. It pays to follow the Union Jack-form Stateside

Tampa Bay Downs (Fast)
20.51 (race 8) Ladbokes market expected 10.15* no's 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 indicating a win restricted to these.

2*. 272 = 6/1 Meritform fair odds (7/1 Ladbrokes) Dazzling Truths. LTO 2 of 10 -3/4L TBD Feb
4*. 341 = 9/2 (9/1). Navy Armed Guard. LTO Won +5L TBD Feb -sauntered clear.
7*. 320 = 9/2 (6/1). Coltrane. LTO 2 of 9 - 2 3/4L TBD last month - consistent

Comment: Jais's Solitude is currently a strong fav Ladbrokes 13/8 due to a drop in class. Meritform 268 = 6/1 fair. LTO 9 of 9 last -6L GS January. Navy Armed Guard and Coltrane would be my two.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
NAVY ARMED GUARD sauntered clear to score by nearly six lengths over a similar trip here in February and he is difficult to oppose after such a dominant performance. Total Tap has won his last two, the latest by nearly three lengths over a mile here last month, and may prove the biggest danger ahead of the lightly-raced Blackline.

Top Tip: NAVY ARMED GUARD (4)
Watch out for: TOTAL TAP (1) (Meritform 256 = 13/2 fair odds)

 

[Jackform]

The fav dropping in class did it, did me

, sad to say.

Will Rogers Downs. 8f
22.17 Ladbrokes market expected 09.35 no's 1, 3, 7 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 329 = 95/40 Meritform fair odds (Ladbrokes 4/5). Karate Hottie. 2 of 10 (6/5) WRD 6f? last month.
3*. 278 = 7/2 (7/2). Aura. 3 of 8 (6/10) SHRP 8f last month
7*. 246 = 9/2 (5/1). Labhay. Won (19/10) GS 7f last October?

Comment: Karate Hottie top-rated but short opposite the risk and some concern about the D?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
KARATE HOTTIE makes more appeal than the hat-trick seeking Labhay because she has race-fitness on her side and is a model of consistency at this level. Aura is another to consider.

Top Tip: KARATE HOTTIE (1)
Watch out for: LABHAY (7)

 

[hedgehog]

I've looked at this race Jackform and bet Figure each way and I'm hopeful. Very nice form lto

Labhay best form on turf so different to dirt

Good luck this evening

 

[Jackform]

hedgehog, well done with yours.

The fav won 1/1 so Meritform marches on

.

Will Rogers Downs (fast dirt) RP Spotlight selects Miltontown.
9.15 (race 5) Market expected 10.00* no's 1, 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 267 = 7/2 Meritform fair odds (6/4 mkt). Miltontown. LTO 1 of 5 (7/5) WRD 6f last month beat Taruca
2. 72 = 16/1 (18/1)
3. 59 = 20/1 (20/1)
4*. 333 = 5/2 (11/8) Taruca. LTO 2 of 4 (1/1 BF) WRD 6f last month beaten by Miltontown.
5*. 313 = 11/4 (11/2) Seattle Thunder. LTO won +1 1/4L (18/5) WRD last month - impressive
6. 6 = 1000/1 (40/1)
7. 150 = 7/1 (8/1)

Comment: Gamblers might try Seattle Thunder at the D

. Quietly satisfied with the way my fair form odds compare with the pro market

.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
MILTONTOWN had half a length to spare when defeating Taruca over 6f here last month and although both have something to prove over this longer trip, the selection looked the stronger at the line and is marginally preferred. Seattle Thunder excels under these conditions and looks the obvious one to capitalise if they fail to stay.

Top Tip: MILTONTOWN (1)
Watch out for: TARUCA (4)

 

[hedgehog]

Well done to you Jackform , you spotted the winner and your meritform is doing brilliantly.

I've looked at your race again and bet afleet sniper to win and the forecast miltontown / afleet sniper. I've got the feeling taruca is going to spoil either one bet or the other or both. Your doing too well to ignore your pick.

Good luck today

 

[Jackform]

1 - 4- 5, so I think Meritform takes that

. Attempted something that looks a more difficult test for the ratings today -could come unstuck.

Tampa Bay Downs. RP Spotlight selects Monkey Mind.
8.00 (race 6) Market expected 09.45* no's 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 indicating an open contest.

1*. 280 = 5/1 Meritform fair odds (11/2). She's Dynomite. LTO 2 of 9 (9/2) TBD 8f last month
2. 160 = 10/1 (10/1)
3*. 230 = 13/2 (15/2)
4*. 210 = 7/1 (3/1) (Barrel Of Destiny)
5*. 249 = 11/2 (11/4) Monkey Mind. LTO 5 of 7 (7/1) TBD January - said to be better class?
6*. 228 = 13/2 (9/2) Itsagimme's Girl. LTO won (14/5) TBD 8f last month beat She's Dynomite.
7. 36 = 100/1 (40/1)
8*. 194 = 8/1 (17/2)
9. 20 = 1000/1 (28/1)
10. 121 = 14/1 (25/1)

Comment: A race for mares and fillies and you never know whether they are in the right frame of mind aside from their physical attributes? Dutch 1, 5, 6 at current odds for interest perhaps?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Itsagimme's Girl saw off Shes Dynomite and Better Yet over track and trip, but may have to play a supporting role this time behind MONKEY MIND. Keith Nations' mare is used to keeping stronger company than this and can make the most of the easier mission. Barrel Of Destiny should be on the premises as well.

Top Tip: MONKEY MIND (5)
Watch out for: ITSAGIMME'S GIRL (6)

 

[hedgehog]

Jackform , do you incorporate lto odds in your meritform? It's just I've noticed it seems to have a big influence in USA racing.

Gulfstream 22.12 claimed 13k 3yo plus 1m0.5f fast

Of the 5 most consistent from the field crypto gold and Dillon rocks were lto favourites and of those Dillon rocks has the better form. I'm not betting but I'm hopeful for Dillon rocks.

Good luck this evening