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Meritform

Jackform

Gelding
This approach to form rating may have legs so I have given it a name for easy recognition. It is now 'Meritform' :), for better or worse.

Market Rasen (going forecast GS with some S) RP Spotlight selects High Noon (4 pundits agree 6 oppose)
4.30 Market expected 2.00* no's 1, 2, 3, 7 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1*. 187 = 9/2 fair (6/1 mkt) Mistercobar 2 tips. O Murphy rates 15/R Johnson. LTO 31, wght -1*, cls =*. 5th-37L? Dis? Gng? Weakened?
2*. 232 = 3/1 (9/4) High Noon 5 tips. LTO 58? wght -6*, cls =*. 2nd -20L? Dis2* Gng2*. Ridden headed not fluent beaten ?
3*. 179 = 9/2 (7/2)
4. 28 = 1000/1 (9/1)
5. 71 = 9/1 (16/1)
6. 0 = ? (16/1)
7*. 310 = 2/1 (10/3) Picknick Park 3 tips (C&D). LTO 18*, wght +13? cls =*. Won +7.5L*. Headway led kept on well*.

Comment: Class 4 novice hcap chase where tentatively the selection is Picknick Park, due to hefty weight-carried increase and the trainer was questioned re the improved form last time, with no answer for it ?

ATR form verdict in comparison.
PICKNICK PARK opened his account over C&D last month and is expected to remain competitive after a 7lb rise. He can follow up to notch a double, with High Noon the one expected to chase him home following his Musselburgh second in January. The pick of the remainder may be Mistercobar, who makes some appeal on his head second over 2m at Leicester in December and may improve for this stiffer test.

Top Tip: PICKNICK PARK (7)
Watch out for: HIGH NOON (2)
 
Monday racing with a mundane card :( , just KBO.
Kelso (going forecast Heavy) RP Spotlight selects Cultram Abbey (3 pundits agree 11 oppose)
4.10 Market expected 12..* no's 2, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.Theoretical strong fav 1/1, possible contender 2/1, not expected longer than 4/1.

1. 140 = 250/1 fair (5/1 mkt)
2*. 185 = 4/1 (7/2) Pougne Bobbi 2 tips
3. 210 = 95/40 (6/1)
4. 187 = 4/1 (9/2)
5*. 211 = 9/4 (7/4) Crixus's Escape 4 tips

Comment: The top rated always has to be considered and the selection is Crixus's Escape.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
CRIXUS'S ESCAPE rattled the crossbar in a 2m3f novice chase at Catterick last time and is expected to better that effort now stepped up in trip and moving back into a handicap. Ascot De Bruyere is rated 5lb higher than his last winning mark but has winning C&D form in the book and could feasibly pick up some minor money. Cultram Abbey, who won over track and trip off 2lb lower in April, is another to consider.
 
Just when I have possibly found the punters' Holy Grail racing gets closed down - it's a conspiracy. Those bookie fellas never miss a trick
:'(
.

Taunton (going forecast S) RP Spotlight selects Putdecashonthedash (7 pundits agree 5 oppose)
4.35 Market expected 10.50* no's 2, 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/4, possible contender 5/2, not expected longer than 5/1.

1. 210 = 11/2 (11/1 mkt)
2*. 249 = 11/4 (6/4) Putdecashonthedash 8 tips. LTO 12, wght +2, cls =*, 1 of 11 +5L* clear not fluent eased. dis 3rd, gng?
3. 153 = 400/1 (13/2)
4*. 265 = 9/4 (5/1) Never Learn (D). LTO 46? wght-7*, cls=*, 8 of 10 -57L? weakening mistake, dis? gng? C Tizzard arates 8/H Kimber (7)?
5*. 196 = 6/1 (3/1) Adherance 3 tips (C) LTO 40? wght -10*, cls=*, 5 of 12 -14L? ridden no extra lost fore shoe? Vaughan rates 2/A Johns
6. 205 = 6/1 (15/2)

Comment: Considered the top-rated but doesn't look likely so it has to be next rated Putdecashonthedash. RPR has the whole field within 3 lbs?
(Never Learn the top-rated won SP 8/1 'not expected' with Putdecashonthedash close up 2nd 5/4. Signing of with a loser - never under-rate the top rated :cry: ).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
PUTDECASHONTHEDASH claimed a much deserved first victory over fences at Wincanton recently and, although a 10lb hike in the ratings will obviously make life a lot tougher, he is fancied to complete the double. Flying Verse failed to fire at Doncaster last time but his two previous efforts had been promising, winning and finishing third off a 1lb lower mark. He possibly deserves another chance, while dual course winner Adherence is no forlorn hope either.

Top Tip: PUTDECASHONTHEDASH (2)
Watch out for: FLYING VERSE (1)
 
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KBO assessment :) - no reason that it shouldn't be successful as far as I can see, although it's never been tried outside the UK mainland. I have to say they don't appear to be very good at compiling a book with all the 12/1's :) .

Happy Valley (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selects ThunderStomp.
1.45 Market expected 09.10* no's 1, 4, 5, 7, 8 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 188 = 7/1 MY fair odds (8/1 mkt) (Magnificent) 6th
2. 175 = 8/1 (125/1)
3. 42 = 1000/1 (12/1)
4*. 140 = 11/1 (13/2) (Reel Bizzy) 3rd
5*. 217 = 11/2 (9/2) Surrealism. Consistent maiden 2nd C&D, draw? 4th behind 4.5 lengths
6. 106 = 18/1 (12/1)
7*. 238 = 5/1 (9/2) Thunder Stomp. Easy winner with in form apprentice (5) to help. 8th
8*. 243 = 5/1 (3/1) Heavenly Thought. Cosy win C&D last month, wide draw and high mark? (I don't agree with ATR opinion of ability/class?) 2nd -3/4 length.
9. 83 = 28/1 (12/1) (Sunshine Warrior - won)
10. 80 = 28/1 (12/1)
11. 89 = 25/1 (12/1)
12. 70 = 40/1 (33/1) (Starship)

Comment: My ratings indicate the long-term record of ability/class. It's whether that class can be shown today and the only indication I can offer to consider is the early market odds. No's 5, 7, 8 could be dutched at the current odds. (It wasn't a total disaster and one race doesn't mean a thing in the overall scheme of things but Heavenly Thought my top-rated was close up 2nd and Surrealism third-rated was 4th, which is better today than the other 'experts' :handgestures-thumbup: ).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
#1 Magnificent is a two-time course and distance winner. He gets the services of Vagner Borges here and from the good gate he shapes as the likely leader of this contest. #12 Starship gets in light with only 117lb to carry. He can settle off the pace for Matthew Chadwick and rattle home as he has done previously. #4 Reel Bizzy has been reasonably consistent this term. He'll need a race run to suit but with a clean run home he remains a chance. #8 Heavenly Thought got off the mark in Hong Kong last start. He's not overly talented but he appears to have found his figure and the retention of Joao Moreira warrants respect.

Top Tip: MAGNIFICENT (1)
Watch out for: STARSHIP (12)
 
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It's that bad today I am going to start tidying up the garden - and that's bad even though the sun is shining :). South Africa and a lack of stats available making it a just a skeleton rating.

Turffontein (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selects Full Mast.
12.45 Market expected 09.05* no's 4, 5, 7, 8 indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 44 = 15/1 MY fair odds (9/1 mkt)
2. 9 = 60/1 (14/1)
3. 6 = 500/1 (25/1)
4*. 141 = 7/2 (6/1) Full Mast. 3rd here last month 7f now easing in weight, D? (Won)
5*. 144 = 7/2 (11/4) Dan The Lad. Won here 30/1 three weeks ago 7f, D? (5th)
6. 27 = 28/1 (14/1)
7*. 150 = 10/3 (5/4) Marshall. 5/11 -5L Grade 1 Classic 2 weeks ago. Has won here. (3rd)
8*. 135 = 7/2 (4/1) (Indy GO - JW Kennedy jock in form past 14 days) (2nd)

Comment: Top-rated Marshall has the proven class/ability, but I currently make it a touch short opposite the risk? May not pay to back against it.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
MARSHALL has a handy weight and could resume winning ways. INDY GO is no slouch but needs to make up a length or so on the Mike De Kock runner. Also from the yard is STORM DESTINY who if finds true form should win this. Stable mates GREEK FIRE and FULL MAST have definite money claims. DAN THE LAD needs to keep on over the last bit. SOLDIER ON could be short a run.

Top Tip: INDY GO (8)
Watch out for: MARSHALL (7)
 
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Closer to home today if that's an advantage? AW racing has never been my forte so any comments may be dubious in the extreme :|.

Dundalk (going forcast standard) RP Spotlight selects Cautious Approach ( 3 pundits oppose)
4.00 Market expected 09.20* no's 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, possible contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1. No 13 not considered as out of the long hcap.

1*. 218 = 13/2 MY fair odds (11/2 mkt) Irradiate (C). LTO 21*, wght carried -19* class+., 4/14-3/4L no impression kept on.
2* 272 = 11/2 (5/1) Muzbid (CD). LTO 14*, wght +16? class -1. 5/7-1 3/4L* lost place no extra.
3* 226 = 13/2 (3/1) Cautious Approach 1 tip (CD). LTO 14*, wght+14? class -1. 3/7-1/2L every chance no extra

Comment: Has an open look on paper where cautious Approach is currently forecast a strong fav. MY top-rated on past performance is Muzbid currently an each-way shot IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
CAUTIOUS APPROACH struck over C&D before then going down by less than a length in third here. Richard O'Brien's mare returns on the same mark and is expected to mount another bold bid. Muzbid is fully effective under these conditions and can fight it out for the silver medal with Irradiate, who was left with too much to do over 2m last time but lost nothing in defeat in finishing a close-up fourth.

Top Tip: CAUTIOUS APPROACH (3)
Watch out for: MUZBID (2)
 
Thurles (going forecast S with some Y) RP Spotlight select Sizing Pottsie (3 pundits agree 1 opposes)
3.10 Market expected 9.45* no's 1, 2, 4, 6, 7 indicating an open contest.

1* 320 = 11/4 MY fair odds (7/4 mkt) Sizing Pottsie 4 tips (D). LTO 18*, wght carried +9? cls=. 1/7+12 (Beat Cut The Mustard). Stayed on well to assert.
6*. 299 = 10/3 (3/1) Zero Ten (DBF). LTO 32, wght -3*, cls +?. Fell
7*. 210 = 6/1 (8/1) Cut The Mutsard. LTO 18, wght +2*, cls=. 2/7-12. No impression on winner.

Comment: Sizing Pottsie top-rated has most going for it except for a weight increase and short opposite overall past record. Zero Ten probably best as a saver to the fav.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
A cracking Grade 3 contest, in which ZERO TEN could make amends for his Punchestown fall last month. Emmet Mullins' high-class hurdler had previously made a promising return when chasing home Cash Back at Naas and with David Mullins (four from five aboard the seven-year-old) back in the plate, he certainly deserves another chance. Sizing Pottsie has won his last two starts comfortably and demands respect, despite conceding weight all round. Capuccimix and Dunvegan add further spice to the race.

Top Tip: ZERO TEN (6)
Watch out for: SIZING POTTSIE (1)
 
This is a trial for the system for a friend keen on Stateside racing, which I know very little about. However, being of the firm opinion that rating overall long-term form has to be a universal indicator it has to be tested :) .

Flaming Park (going forecast standard) RP Spotlight selects Now And Forever. Form readers comments for runners may be found on the Attheraces card.
12.30 Market expected 10.05* no's 1, 4, 7 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 159 = 9/4 Meritform fair odds (2/1 mkt) Now And Forever
2. 80 = 13/2 (10/1) (Bollemakiesie)
3. 33 = 40/1 (33/1)
4*. 167 = 2/1 (5/4) At The Opera)
5. 24 = 400/1 (20/1)
6. 50 = 50/1 (20/1) (Ramkat)
7*. 88 = 6/1 (6/1) Private Ruler
8. 0 = ? (12/1) (Secret Dynasty)

Comment: At The Opera and Now And Forever look short for betting. I am encouraged that my fair odds from the overall form compare pretty well with the early betting market
8-)
.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
NOW AND FOREVER continues to hold his form and can contest the finish once again. BOLLEMAKIESIE returns from a break and does have a winning chance if fit. AT THE OPERA won nicely last week on his local debut and can follow up this week. RAMKAT was well beaten last time out but could like this longer distance. PRIVATE RULER is capable of doing better. SECRET DYNASTY can improve

Top Tip: NOW AND FOREVER (1)
Watch out for: BOLLEMAKIESIE (2)
 
Conmel (going forecast S with some Heavy) RP Spotlight selects The Trigger.
4.30 Market expected 10.20* no's 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15 indicating an open contest.

1*. 252 = merit fair odds 6/1 (7/1 mkt) Ask Heather
2*. 248 = 6/1 (8/1) Dubai Devils
7*. 292 = 5/1 (3/1) Robin Deuz Pois
10. 248 = 6/1 (9/1) Misty Adage
11*. 252 = 6/1 (11/4) The Trigger

Comment: Looks like a punters nightmare to me with my ratings
:)
. (I have an old system called 'The Moving Point Average' that shows a bias towards a runners most recent race that I might try just for interest to see if I can separate them).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
THE TRIGGER came desperately close to landing a gamble at Downpatrick on Sunday and providing this doesn't come too soon after those exertions, he could prove difficult to beat. He was closing all the way to the line in the aforementioned contest so stepping up from that extended 2m3f trip looks an obvious plus point. Robin Deuz Pois struck on her second outing for Gordon Elliott at Newcastle and should remain competitive off this 8lb higher mark, while Dubai Devils and West Is Best (99 meritform rating) are other names to note.

Top Tip: THE TRIGGER (11)
Watch out for: ROBIN DEUZ POIS (7)
 
I calculated the moving point average for the Clonmel 4.30 and the results were as follows:

1. 5.65
2. 3.25
7. 2.5 Robin Deuz Pois
10. 2.5 Misty Adage
11. 3.3
 
Gotta keep going to stop getting rusty
:)
.

Will Rogers Downs (going forecast fast dirt) 1 mile
23.45 Ladbrokes market odds 09.50* no's 3, 5, 6, 9 indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 89 = 11/1 Meritform fair (13/1 mkt)
2. 28 = 150/1
3*. 245 = 5/2 (11/2) Fusaichi Flame
4. 42 = 40/1
5*. 156 = 5/1 (7/2) Far Out Kailee
6*. 152 = 5/1 (7/4) Burgameister
7. 24 = 1000/1
8. 29 = 125/1 (14/1)
9*. 241 = 11/4 (9/4) Ben's Magic Stone
10. 0 = ?

Comment: Meritform top-rated Fusaaichi Flame has to be considered although Ladbroke's is currently looking short. Ben's Magic Stone is more near the mark. Burgameister is another that currently looks short. (Betting not suggested but the Meritform ratings are compiled before checking the ATR verdict so I am satisfied with them as an approach to finding selections).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
BEN'S MAGIC STONE has rattled the crossbar the last twice and was denied by only a neck here last Wednesday. Karl Broberg's nine-year-old can get his moment in the spotlight now, arriving in peak condition. Burgameister could find this easier than some of his latest assignments, with Fusaichi Flame respected following an encouraging third when last sighted.

Top Tip: BEN'S MAGIC STONE (9)
Watch out for: BURGAMEISTER (6)
 
Will Rogers Downs (going ?) 1 mile
7.45 (race 2) Ladbrokes market expected 10.15* no's 1, 4, 6, 7, 10 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 254 = 5/1 Meritform fair odds (3/1 mkt) Right On By
2. 107 = 16/1
3. 79 = 25/1
4*. 287 = 9/2 (2/1) Undivided
5. 30 = 1000/1
6*. 162 = 9/1 (7/1) Smart Rachel
7*. 351 = 10/3 (11/4) Perfectly Precious
8. 109 = 16/1
9. 43 = 100/1
10*. 228 = 6/1 (15/2) Checkerboard

Comment: It has to be Perfectly Precious with a good rating and odds currently OK. (This is racing by numbers where speed is the thing and I am a dedicated form follower first and foremost).

ATR form verdict in comparison.
PERFECTLY PRECIOUS has finished no worse than third on her last six outings, winning two of them, and lost nothing in defeat when runner-up over this trip at Sam Houston earlier in the month. Right On By has proven consistency personified in recent months and may prove the biggest danger ahead of Undivided.

Top Tip: PERFECTLY PRECIOUS (7)
Watch out for: RIGHT ON BY (1)
 
Larry Larry, it is working out fairly well considering the circumstances as most foreign racing is a closed book to me even though I have been following racing since 1951 when I began work at the age of fifteen. A mate has been trying to educate me about Stateside racing via the Sartin method, but as I told him I am a dedicated past track form man, although speed is more objective over there with short distances and similar tracks.
I am only doing this to keep my hand in and still proving my Meritform ratings are viable. They do just indicate past ability of course and it is necessary to try and check that best of them can meet the requirements of their next race. This has been difficult with overseas racing.
 
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Hello Jackform Jackform , I'm messing around with USA racing, I miss looking at a race so am scratching the itch.

Will Rogers

22.45 Kats second silver and shred the rules
23.15 reachreachreach and Lakota princess

I hope to get a winner but a profit seems unlikely

Good luck this evening
 
Shah Tin (going forecast standard) RP Spotlight selects Desert Shield (Meritform 178 = 11/1, f/cast 11/2)
3.50 RP forecast expected* no's 1, 3, 5, 6, 11, 14 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*.230 = 15/2 Meritform fair odds (10/1 f/cst) Glorious Artist. LTO 25, wght carried +3, class +£?. 10 of 12 -6L not a threat 9f
3* 307 = 5/1 (11/4) Buddies. LTO 9, wght +4 lb, cls =£? 2 of 14 -3/4L rallied headed 7F
11* 253 = 13/2 (11/2) Bear Slam. LTO 18, wght -11lb*, cls +£? 11 of 14 - 6 3/4L never a danger 8f

Comment: Tried to do more 'subject to further consideration' in which case Buddies top-rated is the selection.

ATR for verdict in comparison.
#3 Buddies ran a blinder last start on the turf and he returns to his preferred course and distance here. Joao Moreira hops up and has a three-time course and distance winner previously he rates as the one to beat, especially breaking gate three. #13 Elite Patch is a two-time dirt winner previously. He steps up in trip here which is the unknown but his last few runs have given the impression that he is ready for it and his latest trial caught the eye. Three out of #1 Glorious Artist's four wins have come over this course and distance, each time with Zac Purton up and again this galloper warrants respect, especially in Class 2 which he is proven in. #2 Dances With Dragon (Meritform 180 = 10/1, f/cst 16/1) bagged his first win for Caspar Fownes last start and lines up again here. He's next best.

Top Tip: BUDDIES (3)
Watch out for: ELITE PATCH (13) (Meritform 70 = 50/1, f/cst 14/1)
 
hedgehog hedgehog, I have tried with Stateside racing same as yourself but a lot of it seems just like greyhound racing so not really my cup of tea. The amount of data provided floors me :(
 
Hello Jackform Jackform , I'm messing around with USA racing, I miss looking at a race so am scratching the itch.

Will Rogers

22.45 Kats second silver and shred the rules
23.15 reachreachreach and Lakota princess

I hope to get a winner but a profit seems unlikely

Good luck this evening
Hi Hedgehog

Timeform USA have about 4 free races per day and you can watch the Races replays from the Form Sheet

You need to register for the Free Races

9C5D500B-8C0C-441E-AB27-944D49D42B5A.jpeg

Once Registered click either Preview or free PP’s plenty of different data and drop down menus
 
Jackform Jackform and Chesham Chesham, I've been using the sporting Life site which is pretty good but not great. It at last has some form. I will definitely look at timeform. I'll leave a proper investigation until the weekend. Thank you both for having such useful contributions, it makes a reassuring change from covid 19.

Good luck
 
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