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Laying NH Odds-On Favs.

TonCon

Yearling
I've long thought that there could be an edge to be had by laying odds-on horses. They seem to me to lose more often than they win so I looked back, as far as I was able, to try and establish if there was any sense to my thoughts. I tried to identify what, if any, types of races stood out where odds-on Favs had a particually bad record.

The results of my, admittedly less than forensic, research was that it was NH Hurdles and Chases odds-on Favs - with one exception - which lost more times than they won. The one exception seems to be Chases over 3m 2f which showed a small profit.

Today there was one lay - 4.10 Exeter.

I'll try to list all future qualifters on this thread but there will be odd occasions when I'll be unable to because of ongoing health problems.

Let's see how it goes.
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Inspired by your first post in this thread I had a look at laying odds on favs on HorseRaceBase and just looked at results from 2016, 2017 and 2018.
I found that all Irish non-hc races excluding the AW provided a level stake profit of 90pts (2016 +34, 2017 +21, 2018 +35). However, when I checked against this years results to date it shows a loss of 12pts :confused:
 

TonCon

Yearling
Inspired by your first post in this thread I had a look at laying odds on favs on HorseRaceBase and just looked at results from 2016, 2017 and 2018.
I found that all Irish non-hc races excluding the AW provided a level stake profit of 90pts (2016 +34, 2017 +21, 2018 +35). However, when I checked against this years results to date it shows a loss of 12pts :confused:
I honestly don't for a moment think this method will enable me to retire early, the margins are too tight. But I am hoping that I'll lose less money, more slowly, than my usual bets do !!!
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi @TonCon, interesting idea there.
Whilst I don't personally look for horses to lay to lose I can see some logic in your thoughts.
Do you have access to a database such as hrb,, raceform or similar? - if so that's probably worth a look.
I've had a quick look, but so far as I can find out using logical filters the best I can get is in single figure roi, and I assume that you will have to take off the usual 4%, leaving you with next to bugger all.
My original idea was that recent winners will be popular simply because they are obvious, but if they have had a hard race they may not be fully recovered.
Play around with that idea and there are profits to be had, but as you say I don't think it's going to be a get rich quick scheme, rather an addition to your portfolio.
Best of luck with it though, nice idea and I hope you progress it.
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
@dave58 Not sure if it is across the board now, but Betfair have been offering 2% commission. I did wonder if that had an influence on the downturn on profits seen in 2019.
 

TonCon

Yearling
@dave58 - No, I have no access to any databases. it was all done manually. As I've already said, I don't expect this to be a moneyspinner but I am curious if the theory holds up in practice so I'll record all the qualifers over the 19/20 NH season to find out.

For info. each bet is to a theoretical £10 stake with 5% deduction. Lets see how it goes.
 

TonCon

Yearling
Tues. 29/10/ No qualifiers.

Week1 - 4 bets (1W- 3L) for a loss of £10.60.

From now on I will only post if there is a bet rather than advise NQ's.
 

TonCon

Yearling
Weds. 30/10.

1.10 Fak. - Falco Blitz...W (-£5.80)
2.40. Fak. - Nube Negra....W (-£4.60)

Well, this is going splendidly so far - I don't think !!

Although, despite there being 5 losers and only 1 winner the system is only just over 2 points down. Plenty of time yet to get it back.
 
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