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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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York 3:00 1 Kynren 2 Vale Of Kent 3 So Beloved
York 4:15 1 Spirit Of Appin 2 Bella Vita 3 Hameem
York 4:50 1 Crafty Madam 2 Mubtasimah 3 Salayel

Probables
York 3:00 1 Qaysar 2 Vale Of Kent 3 Wafy
York 4:15 1 Hameem 2 Bella Vita 3 Vivionn
York 4:50 1 Mubtasimah 2 Breathtaking Look 3 Our Little Pony

Lost yesterday because layout of d/base changed, why can't they leave things alone. If it isn't broke why fix it?

3:00 So Beloved class horse but having some trouble winning. He does have good form on speed courses although his best figures were on a stiff course. He is starting to get old but the figures are reasonably recent. Because of the length of time since his last win plus his age small win loaded place to half stakes.
4:15 Spirit Of Appin class horse ,another with best figures on a stiff course. However does have winning form on speed courses. Bella Vita has a fair bit to find class wise. Bulk of winning form on stiff courses, does have winning form on speed course in much lower class. Hameem ten races and still no entry on d/base. Spirit Of Appin small win loaded place to half stakes.
4:50 Of the top three only Crafty Madam is a reasonable place price. She is second best class wise and has form on flat tracks. Going and distance look ok. Crafty Madam small win loaded place to half stakes.

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York 1:55 1 Corelli 2 Anythingtoday 3 Jazeel
York 4:50 1 Dark Vision 2 Biometric 3 Irv

Probables
York 1:55 1 Caradoc 2 Gibbs Hill 3 Western Duke
York 4:50 1 Irv 2 Seductive Moment 3 Edaraat

1:55 Corelli figures say this is an improving horse, but those figures were achieved on a stiff course. Place price is lower than required, could just be down to the jockey/trainer combination. Anythingtoday, both his wins have been on speed courses, last win on this course. going and distance look ok. Jazeel no value in place price and a query on distance. Anythingtoday small win loaded place
4:50 prices on top two to tight price wise, and Irv doesn't have an entry on d/base. Did have a long hard look at Archaeology as he is the highest rated class wise of the consistent horses. However as he fails the cross check I'm giving the race a miss.

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York 2:25 1 Eminence 2 Almania 3 First In Line
York 3:40 1 Red Verdon 2 Withhold 3 Barsanti

Probables
York 2:25 1 Land Of Oz 2 First In Line 3 Starczewski
York 3:40 1 King's Advice 2 Kelly's Dino 3 Withhold

Eminence & Almania very tight on final figures, and on the figures both are improving. Of the two I make Almania the class horse by a reasonable margin. Although Almania fails on consistency I make his last run a form performance. First In Line doesn't hold an entry on d/base so his figures rely on his probable rating. While there is little doubt he can improve the price is poor, this may be down to the jockey/ trainer combo no bet.
3:40 Red Verdon is one of my ante post bets based on the track and distance. Seems to be versatile re track although best figures scored on a stiff track. Joint class horse with an interesting jockey booking. Withhold has something to find class wise, but is improving. Another who seems versatile track wise but his running style and weight as he trails class wise may be against him. Barsanti looks to prefer stiff tracks although he does have reasonable winning for on this one. Joint class horse with going in his favour but distance is/has to be a doubt. My other ante post bet is Desert Skyline this is based mainly on trainers thoughts. Has something to find class wise on the top two but flat course will suit. The bulk of his good form has come around this time of the year. Red Verdon & Desert Skyline will have the place bet added.

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7/9/2019
Ascot 2:45 1 Tabarrak 2 Escobar 3 Ripp Orf
Hay 3:35 1 Corelli 2 Time To Study 3 Alright Sunshine

Probables
Ascot 2:45 1 Ventura Ocean 2 Salute The Soldier 3 Breanski
Hay 3:35 1 Alright Sunshine 2 Garbanzo 3 Arrowtown

No post last Saturday as site seemed to be playing up for me anyway.

2:45 Tabarrak is the class horse (just) with three others very close up. Going and distance look ok and looked a little unlucky last run. Escobar another with a change of jockey, but with this one is understandable. Best on a stiff straight course, this one is where he scored his best so far. Has to be a slight question mark re going as best on soft so far. Ripp Orf a bit to find class wise and fails the cross check. Escobar is the only reasonable place price so small win loaded place.
Hay 3:35 1 Corelli Seems versatile course wise, and has won on soft going, but in a much lower class. With this jockey/trainer combo is likely to go off a couple of points shorter than warranted. Time To Study class horse but lacks consistency, profile suggests he has lost his speed and now relies on stamina. not sure this will be long enough distance on this slightly better going. Alright Sunshine although he has won six races he still hasn't an entry on the d/base. He is trained by a chap I like to lookout for, and the jockey booking is interesting. None of these float my boat, but I did have a go hard look at Blakeney Point. He seem to hit form around this time of the year and the going looks favorable. The driven comment is off putting for me especially as it was over a longer trip. no bet.

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Don 3:35
1 Dashing Willoughby 2 Logician 3 Sir Dragonet

Probables
1 Sir Ron Priestley 2 Logician 3 Technician

A disappointing meeting for me so far, couldn't find a single bet. This was down mainly to the small fields in races that would have been of interests.

Dashing Willoughby surprising class form horse! Distance and going should not be a problem. Best on a stiff course, but reasonable performances on flater courses. Trainer and jockeys do well at this course. Logician improving but needs too class wise, as he trails on that. He could well win this but once again trainer/ jockey kill the price. Sir Dragonet needs to improve class wise.Slight doubt re course and bigger one re going.
I would be a little surprised if Dashing Willoughby should win but think he could well be placed and make a profit, very small win and a bigger than usual place.

Bob
 
Ayr 2:00 1 Kynren 2 Irreverent 3 Gulf Of Poets
Newb 3:30 1 Forest Of Dean 2 Victory Command 3 Oasis Prince
Ayr 4:25 1 Certain Lad 2 Anythingtoday 3 Nicholas T
Newm 3:55 1 Charles Kingsley 2 Graceful Lady 3 Land Of Oz

Probables
Ayr 2:00 1 Irreverent 2 Gulf Of Poets 3 Kynren
Newb 3:30 1 Forest Of Dean 2 Hyanna 3 Great Example
Ayr 4:25 1 The Trader 2 Certain Lad 3 Poet's Dawn
Newm 3:55 1 Land Of Oz 2 Blue Laureate 3 Graceful Lady

Kynren and Irreverent's price are too tight for me. Added in even if Kynren was a better price I couldn't back him as he fails too often in races he should have won. Gulf Of Poets there is a biggish question mark re the going. The one that did catch my eye was Club Wexford joint third best on class loses out on count back and has good form on this course. However no bet in this.
The question here for me is do I really want to take Forest Of Dean on? I have him as the class form horse and not happy with the next two in the ratings Victory Command and Oasis Prince, no bet.
Certain Lad the comment driven in his last race is off putting to me as it was to recent. Anythingtoday I make him the class horse distance and going look ok. Last run looks ok as the going would not have suited. Anythingtoday small win loaded place.
Newm 3:55 nothing appeals in this.

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Newm 3:40 1 Queen Of Time 2 Le Don De Vie 3 Afaak.

Newm 3:40 1 Le Don De Vie 2 Little Jo 3 Afaak.

Queen Of Time is my ante post bet, hoping the ground would firm up. With the rain we have had around here I nearly laid her off!! But the ground is logged as good. Trainer and jockey have a reasonably good record on the course and she is drawn close to some class front runners. Bit disappointed the price is now bigg then when I backed her but the place price is still worth having. The stiff track and and distance should. suit. Queen Of Time small win loaded place.
 
Newm 1:40 1 Hyanna 2 Escape The City 3 Eva Maria
Ascot 3:10 1 Raising Sand 2 Kynren 3 Casanova
Newm 3:25 1 Laurens 2 Iridessa 3 Veracious
Ascot 4:15 1 Miss Celestial 2 Excellent Times 3 Dandhu

Probables
Newm 1:40 1 va Maria 2 Scentasia 3 Nearooz
Ascot 3:10 1 Casanova 2 Qaysa 3 Bedouin's Story
Newm 3:25 1 Veracious 2 Iridessa 3 Billesdon Brook
Ascot 4:15 1 Excellent Times 2 Miss Celestia 3 Jadeerah

1::40 three of the top rated have form on stiff courses. Hyanna is the top rated (just) but I prefer EscapeThe City, while she has reasonable for on speed courses her best was on this course. Distance and going look ok. Hyanna the going is a doubt on this stiff course. Eva Maria winner of two out of four races , yet to make the d/base. Escape The City small win loaded place.
3:10 Raising Sand winner of this last season top rated on final figures. Course and distance fine and the biggest dangers have big question marks against the them. Kynren just doesn't win although his figures are quite good. Casanova hasn't made the d/base and questions re going and fails on the cross check. small win loaded place
Nothing in the other two races appeals

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Newm 4:10 1 Who Dares Wins 2 Cypress Creek 3 Coeur De Lion
Chep 4:30 1 Ballyandy 2 Imperial Aura 3 Greaneteen

Probables
Newm 4:10 1Timoshenko 2 Land Of Oz 3Great White Shark
Chep 4:30 Imperial Aura 2 Greaneteen 3 The Knot Is Tied

Who Dares Wins, although he won this last season he looks like he prefers flatter courses. this combined with the doubt re the going is enough to put me off. Cypress Creek acts on a stiff course. and seems versatile re the going. I make him the class horse whose figures are weakened by the lack of consistency. his best form was in the month of October last season. Coeur De Lion, the going looks fine for him , but he seems to prefer flat courses. Has something to find with three of the top five. Cypress Creek small win loaded place to half stakes

Ballyandy clear class horse, with the next top two rated haven't an entry on the d/base. Can cope with an undulating course and soft going. Imperial Aura,Greaneteen both come into this boasting novice form as their best, this doesn't mean they can't win but it will be without my money if they do. Ballyandy small win loaded place.

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Motto
a wee question if you please.....what was the box at the bottom of the races in raceform paper called? It was always about 5 horses in the box with a rating out of 100. You have no idea how they were arrived at I THINK I know how they may have go them going to play around with the race form ratings to see
 
So it was .thought it was best speed rating ,plus lto speed rating put in an order best 100 second best 99 ect may be wrong,just ordered 12 weeks worth see how it goes....its good to see all the old names on here not been on for 7,8 years as Les and Enoch would post a VDW block most days how to get back into it thank you pingmam
 
wee les said:
Motto
a wee question if you please.....what was the box at the bottom of the races in raceform paper called? It was always about 5 horses in the box with a rating out of 100. You have no idea how they were arrived at I THINK I know how they may have go them going to play around with the race form ratings to see
Click to expand...
Hi W wee les were you @enoch on this forum before ?

The formula for speed Plus is here https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/the-blues-brother-speed-ratings.2003/post-40325
 
Yes Chesham good to hear from you it been a long time, went football supporting good to see your keeping everyone right...have you spoke to Walter?
 
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