VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

[mick]

Hi Gansey i agree your rant.There will always be changes in racing and these can impact on results but i find more so in quantity than quality of bets (your above being a good example).So a 10yr audit of past bets bearing this in mind can still enable useful findings RE the overall effectiveness of the basic thinking.

 

[mtoto]

To be honest I wonder about the validity of records from ten years ago.

Gansey,

While I can only agree much has changed in the last ten or so years I still like to keep a record of past results and selections/thinking. This has helped me come to grips with and change my method/thinking. I no longer back in some races, sprints, maidens, novelty races, and any low class race, this has all been based on past results. The main stay of my thinking / logic is based on VDW but even there I have had to make some changes based again on past results. I have now adjusted my thinking on the ability rating I use. While I can see the logic ability doesn't fade it is there for all time, the form book says so the horse is capable of doing this he did it at least once, ignore it at your peril. I have now changed and don't use an achievement that is older than two years and I am looking to see if that should be cut even more. We then get results like Saturday when Planet Of Sound found the old form/class that made him the clear class horse in the race.

I look at results now and really can't see the important facts have changed, good form like good stats, STILL produce good results. The main problem now is sorting out which are the good ones and which ones to use. There is now so many different ideas and some seem determined to add to the mass of information I do wonder if their main aim is to keep themselves in work and even sound /look more intelligent than they really are. Here I'm thinking of Mr Willoughby and Rowlands neither seem to do very well at finding the winners but love to talk, I think it is a pity as I used to like Willoughby's articles. So what is good form and where do we find it? For me, good form comes from races run at a true pace, it doesn't have to be winning form just worth while and reasonably close to the winner. Good stats for me are the basic stats involving consistency and the forecast, here I say basic as in the basic VDW stats not the cherry picked stats that are often offered up. There is no need to cherry pick as simple form reading will sort out the selections. One thing I'm trying to work on is trainer stats but have to be honest I don't have the faith many seem to place on these people. They seem to do very strange things at times and I'm not convinced it is/was always the plan until it comes off.

For me and I accept many don't agree I don't know if many of the changes are for the better, example, the 48 hour decs lead to so many none runners it does my head in. As I don't look at weight in any shape or form I don't have the problem you mention with hcps but I think the low class racing encourages too many strange results, easily excused by the low quality horses.


Mick,

Floorlayer , sand and cement screeds? I used to be a plastering contractor.

Dicko,

Thanks but when I mentioned paraffin bath's the wife said no chance with my luck the house would be burnt down

 

[mick]

Hi mtoto yes sand and cement and granolithic.Was also a spread but earned more via the former.Good life when your young.

 

[Gansey]

Very logical approach mtoto, my problem with the handicapping system is that if a trainer believes his or her horse can only win running below a certain mark they will run the horse down the field as often as it takes to get to that mark. 'Form' is pretty much irrelevant here and even when the desired rating is achieved, the trainer can choose which is the going day for maximum effect. In the old days these form cycles didn't last very long because winners were not harshly penalised and placed horses rarely if ever had their ratings increased. Also losing efforts would see a horses rating fall relatively quickly, today it can take more than a year and numerous poor runs to 'lose' say ten pounds to get the rating to the required level.

 

[mick]

Hi Gansey i agree your above and suspect there is new blood amongst the official assessors.Increasingly they appear to use opinion more than facts.? The possible answer is to attempt to identify the in-between races that the horse cannot (or should not win).I did not lay it on to thick last night RE your bet today as this would have been inappropriate but i will stand by what i did say IE that he has not been placed to win since that run last March and today was likewise.Keep a lookout for that kemp race at the end of this month mate i think that will be the real target.

 

[Gansey]

tMick, if you are correct then Ron Hodges obviously wanted a few more pounds in hand before that race.. makes a lot of sense seeing how the horse ran today!

A few years ago the handicappers in each code were told to 'use their discretion' when allocating handicap marks, for instance when a winner is eased down well before the line they now apparently try to work out what the 'true' winning distance should have been and raise the mark accordingly..

mtoto, sorry about this, I believe its known as 'hijacking a thread' in the trade.. I will shut up

 

[mick]

Mick, if you are correct then Ron Hodges obviously wanted a few more pounds in hand before that race.. makes a lot of sense seeing how the horse ran today!

A few years ago the handicappers in each code were told to 'use their discretion' when allocating handicap marks, for instance when a winner is eased down well before the line they now apparently try to work out what the 'true' winning distance should have been and raise the mark accordingly..

He does not need to be dropped OR to win the kemp race all he will need is to be primed and trying to win it. .What will be interesting is to watch how the OA reacts as in theory he should be dropped again after today but the OA might think the horse was taken wide off the bend ,never put in the race with a chance and therefore sod you Hodges i will not drop the rating. If this happens then i suspect the trainer will not be displeased as what will the press reaction be on the day ........Unplaced lto at ling the horse remains on the same mark and cannot be fancied.?........If so this will equate to a bigger price.

 

[mtoto]

mtoto, sorry about this, I believe its known as 'hijacking a thread' in the trade.. I will shut up

Gansey,

Please don't worry about hijacking any thread that I start, the whole aim is to get folk talking. Have to say I find this quite fascinating as it goes against all my betting rules/ideas. I don't even look at the A/W and this horse has never crossed my path on the turf. While I think I can see and understand why Mick says the trainer is playing with this horse I don't understand why he thinks Kempton would be the target. On a quick look at the horse I would have thought Lingfield would be the target track unless the last Kempton race comes out better on Micks ratings. He has had a prep for the track and shown he can handle it and IF weight does make a difference he could be well in. I will watch with interest and if the race is reasonably valuable (compared to the usual races attempted) it could well restore my faith in at least some of the trainer knowing what they are doing.

As a simple west country boy I'm likely to learn far more by reading the thoughts and explanations from the likes of you, and Mick than from a thousand charts and lists of figures

Be Lucky

 

[mick]

Hi mtoto RE your above ,my figs say the horses best ever performance was that run over 8fur at Kemp on Mar 20th 4th bt < 2lens from a poor draw, they and my profiling suggest that in 8 runs since inc todays contest the horse was not placed to best advantage in fact placed to lose so the horse is not unreliable or inconsistent it has just not been given the chance.The objective of forcing the handicapper to drop it back to a winning mark has been achieved but i think today they wished to further muddy the waters and make the price for next time.This was /has been achieved by the horse once again finishing unplaced. The horse won on jan 26th last year at Ling but around the same date there was a 0-75 over 8fur at kemp.If my figs are correct and the horses best performance was that run at kemp then if makes good sense from a betting as well as form aspect to target the kemp race because not being a course winner will increase the chance of less attention from the press and betting public yet based on my figs his chance at kemp would be as good if not better than at ling.

My take on this stable is that they are interested in a punt and all of the above has imo been done with this in mind for the horses next run.The prize money will be peanuts but a successful gamble at good opening odds will be the cream.

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mick

Timeform Handicap have kept there Rating at 77 for todays race, the same as LTO (Timefig for the LTO over 8f = 79 off a 75 )

 

[mick]

Hi Mick

Timeform Handicap have kept there Rating at 77 for todays race, the same as LTO (Timefig for the LTO over 8f = 79 off a 75 )

Hmm RI say "Held up effort on outer and very wide bend 2 out no chance after".I feel the use of the word VERY is most significant.Sometimes the racereaders have to be careful RE what they publish as opposed to what they really see and conclude.

If you compare this with the way he was ridden on his two previous course wins ? I would agree TF decsion to dismiss the performance and not let it impact on their rating.

Interesting to note from the BHA page that the ling stewards felt it necessary to ask connections for an explanation RE the 4th placed Iceblast yet did not feel the need to question the above.?

 

[arkle55]

Mick hi. I think the BHA must have a under handed policy that is employed, when they decide which trainers and jockies are going to get a pull.

Arkle

 

[mick]

Mick hi. I think the BHA must have a under handed policy that is employed, when they decide which trainers and jockies are going to get a pull.

Arkle

Hi Arkle what i think is that some raceday stewards do not know how to read form or a race.RE The official handicappers although they are expected to be detached and clinical they are human and like all of us don't like to feel they have been mugged off.What i think i sometimes see is that when a horse improves by a stone and lands a touch the handicapper will for a time not only arguably over react RE this horses future OR but also with the trainers other runners.So the "wise guys"play a dangerous game albeit by necessity.

 

[mtoto]

Ascot 2:25 1 Minella Forfitness 2 The Skyfarmer 3 Get Back In Line
Hay 3:15 1 Vino Griego 2 Katenko 3 Night Alliance

2:25 The ratings come out with the three shortest in the betting so little chance of any real value. Like the betting the probables also have the same three but as with the betting in a slightly different order to the ratings. Minella Forfitness is well clear class wise and is the third best probable, my major concern with him is the course. Two runs on stiff courses two defeats, yes, his class could possibly overcome this but he has to give away race fitness to horse with good(ish) form on stiff tracks. Of these The Skyfarmer is the strongest probable but with something to find class wise, and the enigma that is Bourne who has the class but is inconsistent. No bet.

3:15 Like Newcastle I'm never quite sure how to classify Haydock so I just look on it as one of the stiffest "flat/speed" tracks. That being so will the going be enough to make it a stiff track today as the top three have all shown their best on stiff tracks, The top two on the rating have both produced their best in higher class races, Vino Griego being the second strongest probable He also has very strong form on the going and the distance should be ok but his best form is over shorter. The class horse Katenko has to prove the fall hasn't shaken his confidence before I will feel happier about my ante post Gold Cup bet but I do think he could still give Bob's Worth plenty to think about. But I not sure how hard a race they would want him to have today. Night Alliance the strongest probable has plenty to find class wise but like VG I do think this could well be his Gold Cup and make him a bigger danger to VG than Katenko, today. Vino Griego small win loaded place.

Be Lucky

 

[mtoto]

After spending a lot of time going through my records looking at trainers I have to say it has been a bit of a waste of time. Yes, some trainers have far more winners in the races I'm looking at, class 2 or above leaving out sprints and the all weather and what to me are novelty races bumpers, maidens, veterans, etc. I can't find anything that increases the profit margins. The fact a trainer has just had X amount of winners from Y amount of runners does nothing if the HORSE hasn't shown it can act on the track or track type. The logic says the trainer knows the horse better than anyone else but I often find myself asking/thinking WHY?

Personally I think it is the horses that need profiling more than the trainers. So I'm returning to re check my bets/thinking, looking even more closely at the the horses. There are a few that can act on different types of courses, but even they have a preference, to date I have only found two horses that have the same level of performance on the main differences I use.

I noticed someone pointed out a horse didn't perform well at a certain track possibly due to the noise of a nearby road, not something that would have crossed my mind but never the less worth considering. I had a quick look and my first reaction was the horse prefers a stiff undulating course, but the other suggestion has to be worth thinking about. The other question has to be why was the trainer running him on a course he had failed on so many times before? From memory this trainer was in form but the horse doesn't act on the course and that is the important part of the equation

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mtoto

Those that won (Not the bets that Just Placed) how many of those who won shortened in the betting from the morning price and how many lengthened

That might be worth checking

Good Luck

Chesham

 

[mick]

Hi mtoto i agree your above in respect that my take is first find the horse and profile suitability of today's race for same.I feel the difference between the majority of your bets and my own is that generally the races you are working on carry prize money worth winning.You talk of identifying possible prep races and i feel that sometimes an individual trainers motives and MO can be anticipated RE this and put to good use.But from my perspective the trainer will be preping with regards to a win and the price as opposed to a win and/or worthwhile place prize money.

When connections go for it in a lower grade race the only objective is a win,because to finish 2nd kills the price and OR possibly for the next few runs and as you mentioned lower ability horses do tend to hold their overt form cycle for a shorter period than their more classy peers.

 

[mtoto]

Chelt 1:15 1 Annacotty 2 The Italian Yob 3 Ohio Gold
Don 1:30 1 Conquisto 2 King Of The Wolds 3 Bellenos
Chelt 1:50 1 Wishfull Thinking 2 Our Mick 3 Double Ross
Don 2:40 1 Timesremembered 2 Sausalito Sunrise 3 Urban Hymn
Don 3:15 1 Unioniste 2 Kruzhlinin 3 Mart Lane
Chelt 4:10 1 Lac Fontana 2 Totalize 3 Amore Alato

To be honest I haven't left myself enough time to look at the "amended" ratings in any detail. The annoying thing is I now find while I'm happier with the new ratings, there isn't that much difference with today's overall findings.

1:15 the one horse that has suffered by changing the format is Samingarry. Before he would have been ranked considerably higher bringing him into the top three and defiantly into the reckoning. He has shown he can handle a stiff track and undulations, and is the class horse based on those requirements. The top and third rated now, both have major question marks re the course and the 2nd rated has something to prove class wise.
3:15 Unioniste would have been a selection but the price is too tight for me.
4:10 I did start to work on Lac Fontana but the going is a worry here. Fair enough he was most probably outclassed last time out but the fact remains his only win was on good going and his best form to-date was on a flat speed course.

If I was betting today Samingarry would have been the bet but I'm having a day of.

Chesham,

The new ratings have come about because I did take your advice and went back and looked at the records looking to see if the market helped highlight possible winners. I could find no real evidence that selections agreeing with market movement helped the profits, I also looked at the results when one of the best three basic ratings and or probables included the favourite and have to say this didn't improve the situation either. What I did notice was I think I placed to much emphasis on one aspect of the form, thus inflating that aspect, giving a false impression of the worth of the form. I will run both sets of ratings to see if this does help the profits, but thank you for your thoughts/advice it always helps to look at problems from different angles.

Be Lucky

 

[Chesham]

Hi Mtoto

Not backing Samingarry was a good swerve, I did not get chance to look at the race before it was run, but looking at the HRB Stats it was probably the going added to recently winning over further that was against Samingarry


Good Luck

Chesham

 

[nagwa]

well done mtoto,