VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.
- Thread starter mtoto
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mtoto
Gelding
Chep 1:30 1 Moorlands Mist 2 Brackloon High 3 Lookout Mountain
Chep 2:35 1 Tidal Bay 2 Hey Big Spender 3 Knock A Hand
Chep 3:10 1 Renard 2 Coverholder 3 Get It On
The only horse that interests me today is Tidal Bay. He is my ante post bet for this,
placed when it was first suggested this was a target. I know the stats are against him,
but has a horse of his class ever been involved with the stats for this race? I'm happy
he can handle the next two highest rated who are the strongest and second strongest
probables (in that order) The second best horse based just on class, Wyck Hill hasn't
found his form yet this season and even if he was on song he would have to find plenty.
Yes, I'm a little worried by the going but I'm sure the owner/ trainer wouldn't risk him
if they didn't think he could handle it. I did toy with laying off some of the win bet but
I'm sticking with it straight E/W.
Be Lucky
Chep 2:35 1 Tidal Bay 2 Hey Big Spender 3 Knock A Hand
Chep 3:10 1 Renard 2 Coverholder 3 Get It On
The only horse that interests me today is Tidal Bay. He is my ante post bet for this,
placed when it was first suggested this was a target. I know the stats are against him,
but has a horse of his class ever been involved with the stats for this race? I'm happy
he can handle the next two highest rated who are the strongest and second strongest
probables (in that order) The second best horse based just on class, Wyck Hill hasn't
found his form yet this season and even if he was on song he would have to find plenty.
Yes, I'm a little worried by the going but I'm sure the owner/ trainer wouldn't risk him
if they didn't think he could handle it. I did toy with laying off some of the win bet but
I'm sticking with it straight E/W.
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Hay 1:55 1 Across The Bay 2 Herdsman 3 Bob Ford
It looks as if Across The Bay's last race was a/the target but I don't understand why. His record at Aintree just isn't that good, wonder if the trainer believed the hype when the family name is mentioned with that course!! This looks more like it stiffish course, on heavy going, only horse in the race with form in higher class. The next two in the ratings are the probables in the order of strength but both have plenty to find. A bigger danger could well be Pete The Feat as he does have winning form last time out. I'm giving this a miss as as at the moment the place price is tighter than I would want about him.
These ratings have been slightly adjusted after many hours spent going through past results. I started by trying to work the trainers form into the equation but had to give up on that as even after help I couldn't find a way of accurately finding the trainers old/past records. But in playing with the records I did start to notice a mistake in the scores awarded for the different elements of the important factors. It is/was surprising what a difference it made to the ratings and therefore the short list to be examined in greater detail. It also throws out some of the more out outrageous possible selections leaving more time to look at the sensible ones. I haven't given up with the trainer idea but will have to trial it in real time.
Tidal Bay, what an effort, some will point to the weight but I think the going slightly hampered his finishing speed. If he had won I would have had to change my user name as it is based on the horse that came nearest to landing my biggest ever win. Until Saturday the names were Mtoto and User Friendly.
Be Lucky
It looks as if Across The Bay's last race was a/the target but I don't understand why. His record at Aintree just isn't that good, wonder if the trainer believed the hype when the family name is mentioned with that course!! This looks more like it stiffish course, on heavy going, only horse in the race with form in higher class. The next two in the ratings are the probables in the order of strength but both have plenty to find. A bigger danger could well be Pete The Feat as he does have winning form last time out. I'm giving this a miss as as at the moment the place price is tighter than I would want about him.
These ratings have been slightly adjusted after many hours spent going through past results. I started by trying to work the trainers form into the equation but had to give up on that as even after help I couldn't find a way of accurately finding the trainers old/past records. But in playing with the records I did start to notice a mistake in the scores awarded for the different elements of the important factors. It is/was surprising what a difference it made to the ratings and therefore the short list to be examined in greater detail. It also throws out some of the more out outrageous possible selections leaving more time to look at the sensible ones. I haven't given up with the trainer idea but will have to trial it in real time.
Tidal Bay, what an effort, some will point to the weight but I think the going slightly hampered his finishing speed. If he had won I would have had to change my user name as it is based on the horse that came nearest to landing my biggest ever win. Until Saturday the names were Mtoto and User Friendly.
Be Lucky
formtheory
Stallion
Ratings spot on with Across The Bay.
Well done mate.
Happy New Year
Paul.
Well done mate.
Happy New Year
Paul.
mtoto
Gelding
Chelt 12:45 1 De La Bech 2 Mendip Express 3 Pigeon Island
Muss 2:10 1 Ifandbutwhynot 2 Zaplamation 3 New Year's Eve
Chelt 2:30 1 Double Ross 2 Pickamus 3 Drumshambo
To be honest I have just taken up the free trail offered by Horsebase and it is a little overwhelming, so much information to take in!! Think it will take a little while to sort out the bits that are important to me.
12:45 I do quite like De La Bech but would want a better price. He is the strongest of the two horse with proven form in a higher class, although he hasn't run at Cheltenham the undulations and stiff finish shouldn't be a problem. The three probables look to be the dangers they are in order Mendip Express, Bendant, and Alvarado but even the best of those three has plenty to find.
2:10 Ifandbutwhynot is the only horse with proven form in a higher class running in this and is improving. Track and conditions look suitable, but again want a better price,
2:30 Double Ross Looks like a possible bounce candidate for me, hard best ever race last time out and very little time to recover, The third best Drumshambo doesn't seem suited to Cheltenham and the same can be said for Pickamus thge second best probable after Double Ross. One that does catch my eye is Carrickboy, first time this season the going is suitable and the course holds no terrors for him. Small win loaded place.
Hope you all had a good night last night, and a happy new year to one and all
Be Lucky
Muss 2:10 1 Ifandbutwhynot 2 Zaplamation 3 New Year's Eve
Chelt 2:30 1 Double Ross 2 Pickamus 3 Drumshambo
To be honest I have just taken up the free trail offered by Horsebase and it is a little overwhelming, so much information to take in!! Think it will take a little while to sort out the bits that are important to me.
12:45 I do quite like De La Bech but would want a better price. He is the strongest of the two horse with proven form in a higher class, although he hasn't run at Cheltenham the undulations and stiff finish shouldn't be a problem. The three probables look to be the dangers they are in order Mendip Express, Bendant, and Alvarado but even the best of those three has plenty to find.
2:10 Ifandbutwhynot is the only horse with proven form in a higher class running in this and is improving. Track and conditions look suitable, but again want a better price,
2:30 Double Ross Looks like a possible bounce candidate for me, hard best ever race last time out and very little time to recover, The third best Drumshambo doesn't seem suited to Cheltenham and the same can be said for Pickamus thge second best probable after Double Ross. One that does catch my eye is Carrickboy, first time this season the going is suitable and the course holds no terrors for him. Small win loaded place.
Hope you all had a good night last night, and a happy new year to one and all
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Weth 2:15 1 De Boitron 2 Oscar Hill 3 Filbert
Wark 2:25 1 African Gold 2 Cyrien Star 3 Oscar Fortune
Kemp 2:40 1 Party Rock 2 Junction Fourteen 3 Saphir Du Rheu
Wark 3:00 1 Creepy 2 Deputy Dan 3 Rathvinden
Kemp 3:15 1 Jump City 2 Nadiya De La Vega 3 Good Order
Wark 3:35 1 Hey Big Spender 2 Master Overseer 3 Boyfromnowhere
2:40 I make this very tight between the top half a dozen, but only Party Rock has proven form in a higher class. Looking at the prices I just can't see why PR is the price it is. Fair enough the last race wasn't up to much, but the going was against him and I think it was just a prep for this. He does have winning form going right handed but in much lower class and the flat course should suit. Jockey has shown he can win on this horse and the weight allowance can only be a plus. The one major worry is how heavy is this going? I will wait and see what they say after a couple of races but hopefully they wouldn't risk him if it is heavy as he has shown he will struggle. Junction Fourteen the strongest probable has plenty to find class wise with the top rated and even the third best. Saphir Du Rheu the third best won his last race but to date his best form has been on stiff course but he does have winning form on a sharp right handed course and I make him a bigger danger. If I bet it will be small win loaded place Party Rock.
3:35 I take Hey Big Spender to repeat his win in this, he has had the same lead into the race. I could see no way he could even get close to Tidal Bay in his last race and then I earmarked him for this. The only other horse with higher class form in this Master Overseer has been off the track for some time and even though the going is in his favour he has problem finishing some of his races. Hey Big Spender small win loaded place
As said in another post I have been quite because I hurt my wrist, but it is on the mend now. The wrist wasn't the only damage done I have also ruined my rugged good looks by having a bit of a falling out with a pavement, that's how the wrist was hurt trying to save the face. I'm now not allowed out unsupervised the wife has bought a set of reins, she says the grand children are safer out than me.
Be Lucky
Wark 2:25 1 African Gold 2 Cyrien Star 3 Oscar Fortune
Kemp 2:40 1 Party Rock 2 Junction Fourteen 3 Saphir Du Rheu
Wark 3:00 1 Creepy 2 Deputy Dan 3 Rathvinden
Kemp 3:15 1 Jump City 2 Nadiya De La Vega 3 Good Order
Wark 3:35 1 Hey Big Spender 2 Master Overseer 3 Boyfromnowhere
2:40 I make this very tight between the top half a dozen, but only Party Rock has proven form in a higher class. Looking at the prices I just can't see why PR is the price it is. Fair enough the last race wasn't up to much, but the going was against him and I think it was just a prep for this. He does have winning form going right handed but in much lower class and the flat course should suit. Jockey has shown he can win on this horse and the weight allowance can only be a plus. The one major worry is how heavy is this going? I will wait and see what they say after a couple of races but hopefully they wouldn't risk him if it is heavy as he has shown he will struggle. Junction Fourteen the strongest probable has plenty to find class wise with the top rated and even the third best. Saphir Du Rheu the third best won his last race but to date his best form has been on stiff course but he does have winning form on a sharp right handed course and I make him a bigger danger. If I bet it will be small win loaded place Party Rock.
3:35 I take Hey Big Spender to repeat his win in this, he has had the same lead into the race. I could see no way he could even get close to Tidal Bay in his last race and then I earmarked him for this. The only other horse with higher class form in this Master Overseer has been off the track for some time and even though the going is in his favour he has problem finishing some of his races. Hey Big Spender small win loaded place
As said in another post I have been quite because I hurt my wrist, but it is on the mend now. The wrist wasn't the only damage done I have also ruined my rugged good looks by having a bit of a falling out with a pavement, that's how the wrist was hurt trying to save the face. I'm now not allowed out unsupervised the wife has bought a set of reins, she says the grand children are safer out than me.
Be Lucky
*tom*
Gelding
Mmmm...no we won't go there!!! Wheres Mouse when you need a cartoon?
*tom*
Gelding
I need two of them ... one for my mobile phone, and one for the mobile phone battery!
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formtheory
Stallion
Nice bit of research there Chesham!
mtoto
Gelding
I think it was VDW who first mentioned the possibility that better class races were won by more reliable horses and fair dues the theory is sound.What i find is that to often these horses show improved form and arguably we are then left with the task of choosing the one who has to improve the least.?
As far as i am concerned all the horses i back do not need to improve but rather just repeat a previous performance to win and this situation is more likely found away from the top class sponsored open hcaps.?
Mick,
Reading a lot of your stuff I feel we are very similar in the way we approach the task. Even as far as reading the above, except for one thing I just can't trust these lower class horses. I too am looking for a horse that has achieved a performance that doesn't need to be improved on just a repeat of the performance will do. But I have found lower class horse just don't/can't repeat the performances often enough to be able to get a worth while profile on them. They seem to have a much shorter form cycle and because of this much harder to predict. Right or wrong I work on the idea it costs a lot more to enter a horse in these more valuable races and the clever trainer doesn't want to waste the owners money so at the time of entry the main idea is to try to win said race. Apart from the very top horse this means these races are not used as prep races and /or to try something new, so must are there to win or pick up some prize money. Looking at my results d/base I find a very large majority of my bets are on horse with proven form in the class of race or higher so here I agree with you. Like yesterday I do get confused by the way the/some trainers do seem to ignore the proven fact(s) about course type and conditions needed to repeat the required performance. Why the devil did they run Party Rock on that going, ok they had traveled to the course and there was just a chance the going wasn't going to be that heavy. It was, and they knew that before the off, so now the problem is did they really think the horse stood that good a chance even with the going, or were they just being greedy?
I did try/look at the free trail by HRB and sent a thank you e-mail to the owner/boss. I can see the likes of Chesham etc will find it very useful but have to admit it is way above my head. I wanted to see the outcome of using the basic VDW guide lines/template five lowest for consistency first five/six in the forecast and a simple rating based on the form figure of the last finishing position. This is what I think the probables rating is based on, and to do this simple thing that I can do in moments needed a logic/ thought process that is way beyond me. Sad but true.
I could spend hours trying things out but I do worry that I would then stop thinking and just rely on the thought patterns of others. I'm not sure but even with something quite simple like course configurations my ideas would differ from those used in this d/base. A little while ago I was told Newmarket wasn't a stiff course because the standard tine for 12f was lower than the Epsom one. That's as maybe, but how many 12f races are run at Epsom and by what class of horse ? My track configurations are mainly based on the last few furlong, that is when the class kicks in at the end of a true run race.
Going to call it a day as the wrist is starting to play up, any advice some of you who are used to sore wrists can give can give would be appreciated! Come on I know some of you must be experts
Be Lucky
As far as i am concerned all the horses i back do not need to improve but rather just repeat a previous performance to win and this situation is more likely found away from the top class sponsored open hcaps.?
Mick,
Reading a lot of your stuff I feel we are very similar in the way we approach the task. Even as far as reading the above, except for one thing I just can't trust these lower class horses. I too am looking for a horse that has achieved a performance that doesn't need to be improved on just a repeat of the performance will do. But I have found lower class horse just don't/can't repeat the performances often enough to be able to get a worth while profile on them. They seem to have a much shorter form cycle and because of this much harder to predict. Right or wrong I work on the idea it costs a lot more to enter a horse in these more valuable races and the clever trainer doesn't want to waste the owners money so at the time of entry the main idea is to try to win said race. Apart from the very top horse this means these races are not used as prep races and /or to try something new, so must are there to win or pick up some prize money. Looking at my results d/base I find a very large majority of my bets are on horse with proven form in the class of race or higher so here I agree with you. Like yesterday I do get confused by the way the/some trainers do seem to ignore the proven fact(s) about course type and conditions needed to repeat the required performance. Why the devil did they run Party Rock on that going, ok they had traveled to the course and there was just a chance the going wasn't going to be that heavy. It was, and they knew that before the off, so now the problem is did they really think the horse stood that good a chance even with the going, or were they just being greedy?
I did try/look at the free trail by HRB and sent a thank you e-mail to the owner/boss. I can see the likes of Chesham etc will find it very useful but have to admit it is way above my head. I wanted to see the outcome of using the basic VDW guide lines/template five lowest for consistency first five/six in the forecast and a simple rating based on the form figure of the last finishing position. This is what I think the probables rating is based on, and to do this simple thing that I can do in moments needed a logic/ thought process that is way beyond me. Sad but true.
I could spend hours trying things out but I do worry that I would then stop thinking and just rely on the thought patterns of others. I'm not sure but even with something quite simple like course configurations my ideas would differ from those used in this d/base. A little while ago I was told Newmarket wasn't a stiff course because the standard tine for 12f was lower than the Epsom one. That's as maybe, but how many 12f races are run at Epsom and by what class of horse ? My track configurations are mainly based on the last few furlong, that is when the class kicks in at the end of a true run race.Going to call it a day as the wrist is starting to play up, any advice some of you who are used to sore wrists can give can give would be appreciated! Come on I know some of you must be experts
Be Lucky
mick
Sire
Hi mtoto thank goodness we backers do agree to differ sometimes otherwise there would be no markets or value.? 
Like yourself i keep very long term records of my bets not only profit and loss but also my reasoning.I still do this via A4 and my own version of racing shorthand.I would love to have the salient points on a data base (but find the thought of imputing a min 10yrs of same daunting).
I find that much can be learnt via reference to the above. Back fitting in a positive way as the bets have already been made.I tend to view and judge findings from this via ROI because this is more important to myself than S/r or other aspects.As an example my top course from the past 10yrs is York ,i have no idea why and the knowledge serves no good purpose other than being an interesting and unexpected find.
But i did conduct an extensive audit of the class of race roi and found that for myself the middle and lower class races proved more profitable.I always need justification to take note and sometimes this is not possible to find but in this instance and based on the way i work then i felt i could see why proven verses improving. I view it as a probability verses a possibility so an investment as opposed to a gamble.A gross simplification i know but this is a conclusion which suits.
Will this knowledge prevent me from backing one in the Hunt Cup ? no but 8/1 in a 0-75 at Catt pays the same if successful and over a period of bets would prove more profitable for myself albeit less exciting.
I agree that lower class horses are less reliable but find that many are placed with the intention of appearing so.For a horse to run into a place when the stable have a future punt in mind will not be a good occurrence.Where as in a top class sponsored hcap the place money earned can be worth chasing.I look at some of the Mark Johnston horses who frequently contest these races without winning but viewing the total prize money earned then i guess the owners are not complaining.?
RE the wrist i was a floorlayer in my youth and these days pay the price.Wrists back and knees.A bath as hot as poss and radox + salt.
Like yourself i keep very long term records of my bets not only profit and loss but also my reasoning.I still do this via A4 and my own version of racing shorthand.I would love to have the salient points on a data base (but find the thought of imputing a min 10yrs of same daunting).I find that much can be learnt via reference to the above. Back fitting in a positive way as the bets have already been made.I tend to view and judge findings from this via ROI because this is more important to myself than S/r or other aspects.As an example my top course from the past 10yrs is York ,i have no idea why and the knowledge serves no good purpose other than being an interesting and unexpected find.
But i did conduct an extensive audit of the class of race roi and found that for myself the middle and lower class races proved more profitable.I always need justification to take note and sometimes this is not possible to find but in this instance and based on the way i work then i felt i could see why proven verses improving. I view it as a probability verses a possibility so an investment as opposed to a gamble.A gross simplification i know but this is a conclusion which suits.
Will this knowledge prevent me from backing one in the Hunt Cup ? no but 8/1 in a 0-75 at Catt pays the same if successful and over a period of bets would prove more profitable for myself albeit less exciting.
I agree that lower class horses are less reliable but find that many are placed with the intention of appearing so.For a horse to run into a place when the stable have a future punt in mind will not be a good occurrence.Where as in a top class sponsored hcap the place money earned can be worth chasing.I look at some of the Mark Johnston horses who frequently contest these races without winning but viewing the total prize money earned then i guess the owners are not complaining.?
RE the wrist i was a floorlayer in my youth and these days pay the price.Wrists back and knees.A bath as hot as poss and radox + salt.
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Very interesting posts mtoto and mick.
To be honest I wonder about the validity of records from ten years ago because the handicapper wasn't sticking five pounds on the ratings of horses that finished third or twelve pounds on the rating of a horse that wins by a length back then. Really the whole system just incentivises the ducking and diving that goes on at the lower levels. In my opinion horses that lose by ANY distance should never go up in the handicap and seven pounds should be the maximum for winning horses, no matter how far they win by. No wonder its rare to see horses ring up sequences of more than 2 or 3 wins on the trot, and usually only the connections would have been on the first one!
rant over
To be honest I wonder about the validity of records from ten years ago because the handicapper wasn't sticking five pounds on the ratings of horses that finished third or twelve pounds on the rating of a horse that wins by a length back then. Really the whole system just incentivises the ducking and diving that goes on at the lower levels. In my opinion horses that lose by ANY distance should never go up in the handicap and seven pounds should be the maximum for winning horses, no matter how far they win by. No wonder its rare to see horses ring up sequences of more than 2 or 3 wins on the trot, and usually only the connections would have been on the first one!
rant over
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