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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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I am open to all ideas, you have obviously done well with your interpretation, can I ask how you came to the conclusion you did?

When I sat down to study VDW I started with Systematic Betting and a few clipping from the SCHB. I then started looking at The Golden Years and have to say I couldn't really make head or tail of the Erin example. It didn't follow the guide lines set out in SIAO and as far as I was concerned didn't follow any of the other VDW guide lines. He said it was best to keep to the highest rated or not to stray too far from the top, PK didn't meet the perceived requirement of being in the three lowest consistent horse in the forecast. All in all a bit of a mess so I gave up and went back to the ideas shown in SB and that was good enough for me. I then joined a VDW forum and was very soon told your doing it all wrong s/f has nothing to do with the methods. The Erin was mentioned and the "brains" of the forum explained BL was eliminated because he wasn't a form horse this was based on three drops in class and being beaten by a horse with a lower ability rating. This didn't make sense for the reasons I mentioned about Celtic Pleasure having the same profile, and I could see no logical reason why anyone could reasonably expect BL to beat Sea Pigeon on those terms on a stiff course and soft going. + nowhere does VDW say BL isn't a form horse something he did say about others in later examples. I started looking at the Erin using the ideas from the Roushayd example and it started to make sense for me at least. I could make sense of it WITHOUT having to add bits in. VDW later introduced an ability rating and everyone just assumes the was the one used from the beginning, I'm far from convinced.

The different horses from using different s/f are simply because the figures are formulated in different way. The figures In the Post are based on standard times using an imaginary horse carrying 10st I think. The figures I use are based on times that have actually been achieved by a living breathing horse with out any weight worked in. How there many/some that prefer the Post type figures so I can only assume they are reasonably accurate, and that is why I would expect the results using them to quite good, but at times come up with different horses to me.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

I suspect that it is the way that Weight is Factored into Top Speed Ratings that makes the difference in which races are chosen
The Split Second use the Median Times for all races run at a particular course

The RP use the best Ten race Times from the past 5 years for horses who were rated BHA 100 and 9 st, which is why any horse carrying over 9st gets points added and those below have points subtracted

With regards to your own method Mtoto the original Split Second was more in tune with the RP Time Formula than the new Formula.

There must be some way of arriving at the same Ability Rating as yourself ie The Best Class/ Form evidence for each horse during his career, based on the race being run at a true pace and how he performed during that race.

For PK the Cheltenham piece of Class/Form was the best evidence. with regards Monksfield there are a couple of races where he was within a couple of Split Second Points difference and the better figure was a slightly lower class, than the one that had Slit Second Figures about 3 points less but was Higher Class. To me this difference could have changed the outcome of arriving at an Ability Rating if Split Seconds Subjective opinion of the going allowances had been different.

I suspect the Monksfield example is where the Abilty Ratings using a Particular Speed Rating Compiler, results in a different Abilty Rating

For PK even without a Speed Rating I have to agree with you that the Cheltenham Class/Form was better than BL had achieved in his career prior to the ERin. Also I don't think BL was ruled out because he was a Non Form Horse as that is rubbish because Sea Pigeon had finished in front of him before. it is as VDW said he had a hard race and PK's Career Class/Form evidence was better leading up to the Erin

If there was a common factor that led everyone to the Same evidence to support what is the best piece of Class/Form in a horses career so far, we might all arrive at the same horse, providing our Abilty to read form etc

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Newm 3:10 1 Phiz 2 Miss Dashwood 3 Astonishing
Pont 4:05 1 Ottoman Empire 2 Croquembouche 3 Ennistown
Newm 4:15 1 Caucus 2 Statutory 3 Sabor A Triunfo

The 3:10 and 4:15 are out of the question. I very seldom take on horses with proven form from higher class races, and as both of these top rated are not the price I consider worth a bet these races are ruled out.
4:05 Ottoman Empire does have the class and form, track and going should suit. Last race wasn't up to standard, and while I don't like forgiving a poor run, I'm tempted here. Irish races like some/most French races can be turned into sprints and his last race wasn't run at a very strong pace. Today there is at least one front runner so hopefully that won't happen today. The drop in class and a jockey that knows him and hopefully a good pace make him a reasonable bet small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
 
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mtoto said:
Newm 3:10 1 Phiz 2 Miss Dashwood 3 Astonishing
Pont 4:05 1 Ottoman Empire 2 Croquembouche 3 Ennistown
Newm 4:15 1 Caucus 2 Statutory 3 Sabor A Triunfo

The 3:10 and 4:15 are out of the question. I very seldom take on horses with proven form from higher class races, and as both of these top rated are not the price I consider worth a bet these races are ruled out.
4:05 Ottoman Empire does have the class and form, track and going should suit. Last race wasn't up to standard, and while I don't like forgiving a poor run, I'm tempted here. Irish races like some/most French races can be turned into sprints and his last race wasn't run at a very strong pace. Today there is at least one front runner so hopefully that won't happen today. The drop in class and a jockey that knows him and hopefully a good pace make him a reasonable bet small win loaded place.

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Hi Mtoto

I think that Ottoman Empire has too much Physical Weight as it is Turf Race and yet to win on Turf. If the Trainer can get his Handicap mark down should be able to take a Class 2 AW Race

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Newm 2:10 1 Purr Along 2 Switcher 3 Maureen
Newm 5:00 Beaumont's Party 2 Morpheus 3 Dream Walker

2:10 Doubts about all three of these Switcher is in good form but will the course and going suit? Maureen for me there are doubts about the going and suitability of the way the race maybe run + there has to be doubts about her temperament. This leaves Purr Along, the figures say she is improving, the course going and distance should suit. Her price for the place looks very tight with two other unexposed horses in there the two strongest probables , I'm leaving it alone.
5:00 I don't like these races as you can never be sure if the target was the big one or this weaker race. I did get the feeling tomorrow was the target for Beaumont's Party and they just missed out. Course looks fine but has the going gone slightly against him now? Actually I think he stands a better chance with his big weight today than with 8st 12lbs tomorrow. For me his main danger today is the second rated Morpheus an unexposed horse with proven form (but in much lower class) on a stiff course. I do feel Morpheus is a unrealistic price otherwise I would have backed both, so I'm just going with Beaumont's Party small win loaded place.

Chesham,

Thanks for the input yesterday. While I'm not 100% convinced weight was the problem there is defiantly something wrong with the horse!! For me he looked completely outclassed so I have knocked him off the d/based until he can put in another performance good enough to warrant an entry. As it was he only just scrapped on to it in the first place perhaps I was a little generous the first time around. Some horse have a Timeform squiggle thid one now has a mtoto line through it :aggressive:

Be Lucky
 
mtoto said:
Chesham,

Thanks for the input yesterday. While I'm not 100% convinced weight was the problem there is defiantly something wrong with the horse!! For me he looked completely outclassed so I have knocked him off the d/based until he can put in another performance good enough to warrant an entry. As it was he only just scrapped on to it in the first place perhaps I was a little generous the first time around. Some horse have a Timeform squiggle thid one now has a mtoto line through it :aggressive:

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Hi Mtoto

Well done on having had the winner in your Probables. My thoughts about the race was the BHA Rating being too High for Turf and the Weight of 10 stone not exactly helping his cause. On AW surface I would not be as bothered about the Weight if the BHA Rating was down, which is what I think the Trainer is aiming to do. You could always have a AW Data base for horses Like Ottoman Empire in Class 2 Handi caps.

AW Record



KEMPTON PARK Tuesday, 2 November 2010 ALL-WEATHER STANDARD to FAST

3.25 Fettercairn Handicap (2) (AWT) 1¼m

£9,222 0-100 (3yo+)


Handicap mark of top weight 105

Time form 108+, Speed Fig [80]Weight 9-08 BHA Rating =(98)




MEYDAN Thursday, 7 February 2013 All-Weather course: STANDARD Turf course: GOOD

3.15 Gn Focus Handicap (Dirt) 1m 1f207y

£42,038 (3yo+)


Handicap mark of top weight 105







Timeform rating 108+


Weight = 9-00 Official Handicap Rating (98)

I think that if Ottoman Empire can get his BHA Rating down to 98 he could well pick up a Class 2 at Kempton and even better if he goes for the same Class 2 that he won in November 2010. Hopefully the BHA Handicapper will shave off 3lbs when assessed again next week.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chest 3:05 1 Zain Eagle 2 King Of The Danes 3 Tajheez
Newm 3:50 1 Ascription 2 Sam Sharp 3 Graphic
Newm 5:00 1 Head Of Steam 2 Majestic Moon 3 Tellovoi
Hay 5:15 1 Viking Storm 2 Suegioo 3 Jonny Delta
Newm 5:35 1 Marju's Quest 2 Urban Dance 3 Van Percy
Hay 5:50 1 Mont Ras 2 Brae Hill 3 Sandagiyr.

Of these six races only two are of any interest, the 3:50 and 5:50

3:50 is very strong with 11 of the runners with proven form in the same or higher class, of these only two are consistent. The highest rated Ascription has question marks against because of the stiff course and going. The third rated Graphic is the strongest probable but doesn't have the proven form I look for, his position in the ratings is based on stats.
I know some will say Sam Sharp is to old but he has improved this season. He also is versatile in as much as he seems to act on most/any course and on any going although his best has been on a stiff course on good to firm. The doubt and there always is something maybe the distance as he has failed when he tried the stiff 9f. Hopefully he is stronger now.
I make Arsaadi the class horse and she is a consistent horse she only fails to make the top three because she didn't show in the forecast and is that because the trainer has "sexy" horses in the race? Course going and distance look ok, and at least with her I know there will be a good early pace unlike yesterday. Still can't work out what that was all about trainer has six runners in the race and the one with the best chance needs a good/true run race!! They nearly walk for the first half of the race and then turn it into a sprint why wasn't one of the six told make sure there is early pace. Rant Over!! This is a slightly lower class race than her race at Royal Ascot and she got me the place at 16/1 she is worth another bet, Sam Sharp and Arsaadi both small win loaded place.
5:50 Another strong race with four of the runners with proven form in higher class. The only one that could have interested my based on price is Sandagiyr and even with my favourite jockey on board I couldn't risk any money until the horse starts showing more than it has in its last two runs.

Be Lucky
 
I posted up about pace and its relation to the V.D.W method on Mtotos blog page but no one mentioned it so am not sure of its relevance?

Paul,

Sorry but I must have missed this post or misunderstood it. As I think pace is a VERY important aspect of the VDW methods it has to be of great relevance, after all he did mention pace when he gave the things to look for when assessing form, although there was no mention of weight or the live market.

Yesterday was the first time in the last four years I didn't show a profit on the Cambridgeshire so it was a little disappointing from that aspect. Going back through the race as I usually do I still couldn't make the winner a selection based on any of the principals I use. Not much use now but I did have a very hard look at him because of the jockey. Mr Haggas and had used Murtagh to good effect more than once so I did check the horse out, he didn't have the standard of form I look for, but his best performance was with Murtagh on board on suitable going.

Over the last couple of seasons I have noticed apart from the very best race the ratings seem to drop away with there effectiveness at this the tail end of the season. Not sure why, perhaps it is just the end of a long hard season for some, or desperation/greed sets in with the trainers trying for one last win or trying too hard for a save the season. Many years ago I read something by a serious backer saying he didn't back anything after the middle of September. That seems a little drastic but I do look even harder for the plot and try to stick to the better/ target races.

Soon be into my favourite discipline of racing the NH. My favourite races there are the two mile hurdles so will have to make sure the data base is up to date and ready to go. Chepstow and Cheltemham are only a fortnight away.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

I did not even bother to study this race yesterday, but have looked at Educate and his best Timefigure was also the Haydock Race that you mentioned

Data Below



HAYDOCK PARK Saturday, 10 August 2013 GOOD to FIRM

2.20 Betfred `better Prices On Goals Galore' Handicap (2) (Turf) 1¼m95y

£32,345 0-105 (3yo+)

Handicap mark of top weight 104


EDUCATE
Timeform Comment



EDUCATE



TIMEFORM RATING106+ SPEED FIG

[104]

WEIGHT9-09 BHA(99)



EDUCATE is still progressing and remains ahead of his mark, shaping very well here, sure to have at least gone very close all things been equal and might well have won; waited with, headway on bridle 3f out, short of room under 2f out, stumbled approaching final 1f, forced to switch, ran on once in the clear but left with no chance; he's one to note for similar valuable handicaps at this trip.





GOODWOOD Saturday, 24 August 2013 First 3 Races: GOOD Remainder: GOOD to SOFT

3.30 Betfair Celebration Mile (Group 2) (1) (Turf) 1m

(3yo+)


Handicap mark of top weight 116



EDUCATE



Timeform110 Speed Fig

[75]



Timeform Comment



EDUCATE back down in trip, ran about as well as could have been expected upped in grade, essentially not up to the task but sticking to it anyway; waited with, not quicken over 2f out, kept on final 1f.




EWMARKET (ROWLEY) Saturday, 28 September 2013 Good to Firm

3.50 Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (2) (Turf) 1m 1f

(3yo+)


Handicap mark of top weight 105


EDUCATE





WEIGHT 9-09 BHA(104)

looking at this years Stats for J Murtagh he seems to do not so well on Left Hand Tracks



Course Direction

Wins

Runs

Win%

Plc%

I.V.

A/E

£1 Win

ROI%

Straight,

6,

29,

20.7%,

44.8%

0.91

1.44

£18.50

63.8%

Left,

1,

15,

6.7%,

26.7%

0.29

0.54

-£6.50

-43.3%

Right,

6,

13,

46.2%,

53.8%

2.02

3.30

£34.50

265.4%

Yet he has had better stats going left Handed in previous years

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Course Direction Wins Runs Win% Plc% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% P/L
Straight, 6, 29, 20.7%, 44.80% 0.91 1.44 £18.50 63.80% 19.138
Left, 1, 15, 6.7%, 26.70% 0.29 0.54 -6.5 -0.433 12.205
Right, 6, 13, 46.2%, 53.80% 2.02 3.3 £34.50 265.40% 49.359
 
arkroyal said:
Course Direction Wins Runs Win% Plc% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% P/L
Straight, 6, 29, 20.7%, 44.80% 0.91 1.44 £18.50 63.80% 19.138
Left, 1, 15, 6.7%, 26.70% 0.29 0.54 -6.5 -0.433 12.205
Right, 6, 13, 46.2%, 53.80% 2.02 3.3 £34.50 265.40% 49.359
Click to expand...

Hi Ark

Thanks, I have a Mac Book and Numbers

Good Luck

Chesham
 
I have chrome, from the App Store on my iPhone but notice that it is not available from the App Store for my iMac :eek:
 
Sorry to derail this thread @ mtoto mtoto , I will delete these messages to tidy things up, soon!

@ Chesham Chesham the easiest way to post tables from a Mac would be to do a screen capture using Command-Shift-4. A cross-hair cursor will appear and you can click and drag to select the area you wish to capture. When you release the mouse button, the screen shot will be automatically saved as a PNG file on your desktop.

You can then simply drag the newly created file and drop it on the reply box and it will be included in your message.
You will have the option to display a thumbnail or the full image, I would select full image.
 
Sat down to sort out my NH data bases and got side tracked big style. Noticed the virus warning had been taken of the other UK forum so thought I will just have a quick look and see if there is anything I want to save as these forums do have a habit of disappearing.

So I started at the beginning and worked my way through, saving a few posts I hadn't noticed, or thought about before. It dawned on me these forums are nearly always the same or made up of the same sort of people, sometimes the same people with different names. There is always a/some doubters whose sole purpose is to take the mick and stir things up. Then there are the new converts who are asking the basic questions and asking which VDW books to get. Like smokers who have just given up they often get a little fanatical about the subject and this is the way too go and no other way will do. The one thing about these folk is how soon they get to grips with the subject and they are quickly telling everyone else where they are going wrong. I do find that amazing as after all this time I'm still reading things in the same books and seeing things I hadn't noticed before or hadn't thought of it in that way. These clever folk seem to do a bit of speed reading and everything just falls into place and makes perfect sense. Of course there are the folk who think this is going to be easy and try to turn the whole thing into a system, most fail and just give up. However there are a few that never seem to learn and just keep trying with a little tweak here and then another here, not really ever getting anywhere.

At the most I think there have been a dozen people who I have learned from and most of the lesson has been about horse racing in general, and it is strange these folk keep cropping up on VDW forums, strange in as much as while they teach me to look at things from a different angle it's about racing in general not VDW. Going back through those old posts I found I have been asking the same question(s) for many years and still haven't seen a reply that answers my doubts/query that I can't see a flaw in.

I main reason for starting this was to say how much I think this forum is big improvement on the other forums, although there are a few of the types mentioned above here. For me where this forum scores is the help given to each other re the " white man's magic" all this clever computer stuff. Have to admit most no all of it goes above my head, people put up little tip bits to down load and I think I must have the wrong software as I can't read it. Ark put up a template to keep stuff in tables and readable, and I can't work out how to use it. That's my problem though as it is useful for others. Think I must have been born in the wrong era as all this technology defeats me, it didn't matter when the boys were around as one or other would always come and help. Even needed them to set up the video sort out the telly etc. One was head hunted and taken of to Australia and he says it too far to come to sort out a video/telly and the other one I still miss as he was interested in making money and was the brains behind making it he sorted out the clever stuff on Betfair.:confused: I'm now reduced to simple place and or win bets.

Anyway enough I will have to sort out the d/bases tomorrow. This time around I will have to be careful and check everything twice as I found a mistake I had made that cost me big time last week. My mistake and mine alone sometimes I'm just an ejut it was such a silly basic mistake:oops: Danny would have noticed .

Be Lucky
 
Hi mtoto i only went on line 4yrs ago so that i could try the RI product.So i was and still consider myself to be a computer numpty.When i discovered racing forums i felt like a kid in a sweet shop.In theory they should prove the ideal medium for backers to exchange ideas and experiences and learn from each other.

The theory still stands but the practise can prove a disillusioning experience.Ignorance and rudeness delivered by a minority of "keyboard warriors" can spoil things for all. However there are still many decent and interesting people involved and imo meeting them justifies the risk.

RE Your thoughts on VDW as you say many looked for the easy option,attempting to turn his five part method into a system and blamed anyone but themselves when they failed.I was in at the start when his first letters were posted and spent a lot of time attempting to correctly interpret what he was saying.

I failed to do so yet i will always feel grateful to the guy as time spent studying form is seldom wasted. ?
 
mtoto
Ive also seen my son move away and miss him greatly though he does pop up on here some days ,with regard to your racing views we all have opinions and thats the great bthing about OUR FORUM is everyones opinion is inportant theres no right no wrong just a bunch of big boys playing with their toys (sometimes expensive ) sometimes throwing them out of the pram for others to pick them up for them.I value your imput as much as I repect other peoples opinions and at the end of the day we will never meet most of our detractors on here we can chose our friends but we are lumbered with cyber mates I have met or spoken too a few on here and there are real decent folk to share ideas with.

Brian
 
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