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Jack's blog attempt

Elsewhere we have hypothesis and a possible course for winners to titillate the taste buds of members. I thought I might kick in with an offer to advise each and everyone how to succeed when betting by 'Quality Improvement through Defect Prevention' (translated means getting better by not making errors :D ).

I have been retired for almost thirty years now but when I was gainfully employed I was a fully trained in
TQM (Total Quality Management ) for a UK bellweather company. If you are interested read on other wise bin it as there are ten modules, FREE of course :crazy::

The basic concepts of quality improvement to occur for any system may be found by answering these four questions:

a) what is quality?
b) what system will cause it?
c) what performance standard is necessary?
d) what measurement of quality is meaningful?

a) Everyone has an opinion about quality from good/bad products - good/bad service etc. The simple answer is that it has to meet requirements e.g., a small hatchback is a better option to go shopping in to the supermarket than a Rolls Royce.
b) To cause improvement familiar methods are tests, inspections and audits usually aimed at finding errors and fixing them, whereas the only system that really causes quality is prevention, eliminating the potential for error.
c) The standard necessary is to get it right first time, no errors.
d) The only meaningful measurement of quality is what does it cost to get it wrong?

Is that enough or does anyone want more?:party:
 
S Sandhog et al, I am surprised I thought at least someone might tell me to take a hike :) . So OK, a summary of the previous post to ensure we all understand.
The 4 absolutes of quality management are;
Conventional wisdom opposite to Reality
Goodness - Definition - Meeting requirements
Appraisal - System - Prevention
Acceptable quality levels - Performance standard - No defects
Quality indices - Measurement - Cost of not conforming

A convenient way to remember these four absolutes is 'do it right first time'.

Next post we move on to the identification of requirements
 
Very good, Jackform Jackform, imo.

"Re-work" was always the big thing to be avoided, though this may not apply to bureaucrats, and, others who don't actually produce anything.

Thus the motto above is good for all those who wish to get things done efficiently and properly.
For those who just polish their office chair till early retirement, this may not be relevant.

I can't wait to see the link with the racing game.
Very interesting thread, imo.
 
S Sandhog, as you indicate this does relate mainly to industry but the principles may be applied to any process, which is everything we do, so we should get to racing in the end :party: .

The Identification of Requirements (As this is critical it is taken almost verbatim from the manual)



All work is made up of one or more processes. To show how quality improvement relates to a particular job, it is important to examine that job or task from a process standpoint. The tool used to gather this information is called a process model. It provides a means for breaking down work into smaller activities. These smaller activities are then analysed to determine what is involved and what the requirements are.

A process is simply a series of actions or operations conducted to produce a desired result. Work is a process, and the individual components that make up work are also processes. The analysis of these helps determine what must be done to cause quality improvement. All processes have two factors in common. They are made up of :

  • Outputs – things or services provided to others.
  • Inputs – things or services others provide.
To produce an output that satisfies the customer, it is crucial to first understand what the customer expects. These expectations are expressed as requirements.

If the process to be analysed is small in scope, then the size of the inputs and outputs will be small. To begin analysing a process, the process must first be clearly identified and defined e.g., making an apple pie, it is important to know if the scope of the process includes buying the ingredients as well as cooking, because as the scope of the of the process changes so do the inputs and outputs.

The final step in analyzing a process involves examining the five steps required by a process to produce outputs – an output is a product or a service provided.

Inputs – An input is the information or material used or operated on to create an out put.

Equipment/Facilities – includes any equipment and facility needed to perform a process such as a computer.

Training/Knowledge – Skills and understanding needed to perform a process.

Procedures/Process Definition – includes the instruction or the description of an internal process.

Performance standard – is the attitude taken when comparing inputs and out puts. It should be consistent with the attitude that no errors or defects are acceptable.

Every task can be viewed as a process. The process model is a tool that can be used to help understand work processes and to make certain clear requirements have been defined.
 
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Blimey guys, you are taking me back more years than I care to remember here. I too remember BS5750, and I also did a (short!) course on TQM way back when.

Thanks for this Jackform Jackform - certainly waking up the old grey matter!
 
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Yes, a brilliant thread that is extremely useful and entirely clear!
Thank you, Jackform Jackform for this.

dave58 dave58, I'm not at all sure about the handles on these these things, but, we were led to believe that without this BS 5750 ( British Standard - not something else :))
we , in the civil engineering and construction industry would not be allowed to continue.

I personally attended about seven workshops organised by the State.
The principles were generally good, but, I could see it was potentially a bureaucrat's delight.

Not totally sure what happened, 'cos I got injured myself, not long after "getting certified".
I was only a small-time specialist contractor.

Anyway, I never did have to apply it, even though it did get several name changes along the route.
While working for others as a sub-contractor, it was the case that the main contractor had the responsibility of instigating and enforcing the "guidelines".
One agent told me that it was a ".... nuiscance" and cost them thousands, in money and man-hours.
They had to get a new portacabin for use as a dedicated office for this "Quality Control".
The foreman told me that, when he got home at about 8.30pm ( after starting at 6am) he'd have at least two hours of BS5750 paperwork to do that night.

I accept the principles, which are largely "common sense", but, I shun the bureaucracy of it all.
Maybe nowadays, with the vastly greater use of computerisation, the thing could flow much better.

I am so interested, bc I see the usefulness of the logic and step-by-step, principled, activities. On the other hand, it suits me better to be retired and to let others fret about such things.
:) Irresponsible and lazy?
Maybe.
Never forgot the day we were officially "not allowed" to unload a lorry-load of plastic pipes that had come from Belfast: I could have chucked them off by hand myself,in half an hour, but, as it was, the driver had to stay put - outside the site) for three days, while HQ waited for some "method statement" from the manufacturers.
Ho hum.
 
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The Measurement of Conforming.
Measurement is an integral part of day-to-day existence and a vital part of improving quality. Measurements are so much a part of daily life that much of our vocabulary is made up of measurement term: length, width, height, voltage, current, time, weight, temperature, speed, volume, direction etc. In most instances measurements are needed to convey information and can answer three basic questions:

What is it?

When is it?

Where did it occur?

Lord Kelvin creator the Kelvin scale of temperature said, ’When you can measure what you are speaking about and express it in numbers, you know something about it’.
The steps to measuring lack of conforming are identifying, counting and charting. Identifying mean pinpointing the activity to be measured, and zeroing in on an activity explicitly defines that activity so that everyone is focussed in the same direction, but if too large an activity is targeted for improvement it becomes too large to measure. If eating a whale it would need to be cut up into bite-sized pieces not eaten whole, otherwise the task would be overwhelming and it is the same with measurement. In identifying tasks to be measured a small percentage of the jobs to be measured will provide will provide the bulk of the improvement. This is a reflection of the 80/20 rule, which states that 80% of our problems are caused by 20% of our activities. To identify the troublesome 20% the next step in measurement is very useful.
Counting is a way to list lack of conforming, in this case the isolation of problems and is accomplished by three steps: observation, addition, stacking. The first step is to make the non-conformance simple and easily observable and therefore countable. The addition of these numbers tells how large the problem is and helps determine the extent of resources needed to cause improvement. The purpose of stacking is to narrow down the sources of trouble and is a valuable diagnostic tool. This type of analysis can be used universally. The final step is to chart improvements over time assess the impact of day-to-day decisions, a pictorial form of non-conformance measurement. There are five distinct items on quality improvement that need to be addressed:

The vertical axis (usually on the left) used as a scale the activity being measured. The horizontal time axis placed along this axis, the interval being dependent on the use of the chart. The goal line that shows the target number to be reached and can be continually updated as targets are met. The activity rate is used in activities that tend to fluctuate and gives the viewer extra data. The performance line charts the progress of non-conformance.

Implementation of the measuring process is best answered by asking four questions: What is the process needing error prevention? How will that measure be obtained? How should the measure be presented? Who is going to make the measurements?

Measurement is only one part of quality improvement but it is the backbone of the control system. It is the vehicle used to evaluate and plan management actions.
 
Tried to get my head round the artificial surface racing again as I seldom call it right and I can't work out why. However, I have been doing rather better on paper at least of late just taking recent form selections in the early market restricted races. These are they today and they have no other merit than as explained.

Southwell (going forecast standard to slow)
12.25 Rainbows Gift
1.00 Grangeclare View
2.45 Peachey Carnehan
 
Try another approach at Newcastle (going forecast ST to Slw). Got to keep up the pressure on those bookie chaps
:P


4.30 Local Bay
5.00 Diavolo
5.30 Electronic
6.00 Sip And Smile
6.30 Khulu
7.00 Global Warning
 
This is a practise for this years Cheltenham approach. Namely three categories - 1. Current top ten BHA trainers (less any Irish based). 2. Current top Irish trainers (none today). 3. Up to best three of MY form ratings from the market expected range in each race.

Warwick (going forecast GS some S showers) D Skelton top track trainer runners - 2.12 two. 2.45. 3.20. 5.05.

1.35 Market Expected (ME) no's 1, 4, 2
ME Pilsden Pen 54, Stanley Pincombe 30, Rock On Tommy 18
UK (yards) Rock On Tommy (rated) 22 O Murphy

2.12 ME 1, 6
ME Lac De Constance 50, Sporty Jim 15
UK Lac De Constance 28 D Skelton, Callisto's King 18 D Skelton, Sporty Jim 12 O Murphy

2.45 ME 1, 5, 4
ME Precious Eleanor (BF) 42, Fortunes's Melody 34, Galice Macalo 31
UK Dazzling Glory 24 D Skelton

3.20 ME 5, 8, 2, 7
ME In Rem 60, Boss Man Fred 21, Guillemot 20
UK Boss Man Fred 25 D Skelton, Colonial Dreams 19 N Henderson

3.55 ME 1, 9, 6, 10, 2, 8
ME Boughtbeforelunch 42, The Newest One 35, Vinnie Dev 21
UK The Newest One 16 N Twiston-Davies

4.30 ME 7, 4, 8, 9, 5, 2 + others.
ME Getaweapon 41, Hyland 27, Cawthorne Lad 25

5.05 ME 7, 1, 2, 6
ME Everyonesgame 44, Ernest Gray 30, Twin Power 21
UK Twin Power 27 P Nicholls, Bold Reaction 26 N Henderson, Mount Tempest 18 D Skelton

Comment: Looking forward to see what transpires and will be updating my UK/Irish trainer ratings after racing tomorrow.
 
I thought that went rather well, as Father Ted said
:)
, so more of the same today. However, swerved Plumpton as the better class yards are out at Stratford.

Stratford (going forecast GS some S) D Skelton top track trainer 4.40 Royale Dance

1.45 ME 1, 3, 5, 4
ME Bob's Bar 38, Raffles Gitane 36, Nebuchadnezzar 30
UK Nebuchadnexxar 21 A King, Son Of Camas 19 N Henderson

2.20 ME 3, 1, 2
ME Silver Shade 40, Interne De Solva 31, Fleurman 30
UK Fleurman 22 O Murphy, The Hood 11 A King, This Ones For Fred 11 A King

2.55 ME 5, 4, 3, 6, 8, 7
ME Espirit De Somoza 43, Family Business 23, Oscar Montel 21
UK Fly Smart 17 Ven Williams, One Forty Seven 13 N Twiston-Davies

3.30 ME 4, 5, 2, 3
ME Osprey Call 30, Castel Gandolfo 21, Restandbethankful 20
UK Castel Gandolfo 15 F O'Brien, Restandbethankful 12 O Murphy7

4.05 ME 7, 5, 4, 3, 9, 10
ME Envoye Special 33, Streets Of London 33, Diable De Sivola
UK Imperial Nemesis 11 A King

4.40 ME 9, 1, 4, 5, 10, 8
ME Waterloo Quay 35, Iceman Dennis 32, Royale dance 30
UK Royale Dance 28 D Skelton, Iceman Dennis 22 D McCain, Half Dozen 20 P Nicholls
 
Grand National (going forecast GS)

My top four in order of merit - Eclair Surf 4* (11/1 mkt 09.05), Snow Leopardess 2* (10/1), Delta Work 2* (11/1), Any Second Now 2* (10/1)

Comment: Considering the weight range of 10st-6lbs to 11st-10lbs = 18lbs IMO it is impossible to hcap 40 runners by weight to give equal chance, therefore it can be viewed as a race graded by form. The star* rating figure is derived from the top three from five separate form stats.

ATR form verdict in comparison:
DELTA WORK is a five-time Grade 1 winner who had lost his way prior to edging out the dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll in the Cross County at Cheltenham last month. That unique test clearly sparked a turnaround in fortune for this nine-year-old, like it had done with Tiger Roll, and the form suggests that a mark of 160 may underestimate him. Longhouse Poet accounted for a decent field when winning the Thyestes earlier in the year and, while he has to prove his stamina for this marathon trip, he remains unexposed. Escaria Ten has been targeted at this race all season and his third-placed finish in the National Hunt Chase last season is a very eye-catching piece of form. Minella Times had plenty in hand when winning 12 months ago and it would be no surprise to see him make the frame once again, despite being 15lb higher this year. Discorama went well for a long way last year and he could reward each-way support in first-time cheekpieces, having had a better preparation. Others to note are Enjoy D'allen, Death Duty and Freewheelin Dylan.

Top Tip: DELTA WORK (2)
Watch out for: LONGHOUSE POET (10)
 
Had to do something with Ascot to watch on TV otherwise I will be sent out gardening
>:(
. (Not keen on Ascot or Haydock for punting today)

Ascot (going forecast G with some GF) Market odds from 09.40. J&T Gosden top track trainer although slow starter this season as yet?

1.45 Juan De Montalban 8/1
2.20 Stowell 7/2 (J&T Gosden)
3.30 Rising Star 7/1
4.05 Fresh 8/1
4.40 After The Rain 5/4 (5pt stand alone nap)
5.15 Mamillius 8/1

Comment: Fibonacci staking sequence (1-1-2-3-5) down the card stop-when-in-profit, except for the 4.40
 
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Ended up OK yesterday, with again today at Hamilton big fields big risks for punters
:)
.

Hamilton (going forecast GS some G) Market odds form 08.45. K Dalgleish top track trainer with 9 runners.

3.50 Kind Spirit 10/3
4.18 Nordhalla 7/2
4.48 Gweedon 13/2
5.18 Rayong 9/2
5.48 Asser 2/1 (stand alone 5pts bet)
6.18 Baileys Derbyday 11/2
6.45 Life On The rocks 4/1

Comment: Fibonacci staking (1-1-2-3-5-8) down the card stop-when-in-profit, except for the 5.48 stand alone bet. The benefit of Fibonacci is that 6/4 or better clears losses on a losing run - if you didn't know :D, however after six losers it gets a bit torrid!
 
My current Flat season top ten jockeys out today as a tribute to Lester
:D
.

Lin 1.50 Simply Sondheim 30
Red 2.00 Glorious Angel 22
Lin 3.25 Juan Les Pins 14
Red 3.35 Anniversary Belle 21
Lin 3.55 Agapanther 30
Ayr 6.30 Graces Quest 23
Ayr 7.00 Tommy G 23
Win 7.10 Imperial Sands 21
Ayr 8.05 Yaaser 23

Bet: 8 x consecutive £1 win DBLS, 7 x consecutive win TRBLS, 6 x consecutive 4 timers.
 
Converging Factor Racing Fomulas (Gold Centre) by Promath (circa 1970)

Quote: ‘...the answer to most problems is in statistics ... but only in the use we make of them (they are available to everyone) ...and, in fact they are the only way to win. The important thing about mathematical and statistical methods is that, quite simply they bring method into the business.’

Promath principles to consider.
a) Examine consistent statistical trends it does not matter if they are winning or losing as long as it shows a definite trend.
b) Experts are consistent in that they give more losers than winners and that goes on from season to season and is one of the more consistent definite trends.
c) The betting forecast is a statistical source that can be used to advantage.
d) The two main things that matter are statistical facts beyond any doubt and mathematical methods of using them to advantage

An example of one of the simplest examples of using experts and the betting forecast.
1. Assume that the winner of any two races will be in the first three horses named in the betting forecast
2. With three experts assume that each will give a winner in one of the two races.
3. The assumptions may be ambitious or not the aim is to show how to deal with two races , on those assumptions.

Real time example to follow if there is anyone has interest in this?
 
Yes, Jackform Jackform , I am interested.
However, I heard various versions of the above for at least forty years, and, nowadays, with so much conflicting "information" and the power of the Exchanges, I don't totally accept much of it.

Who was behind this Promath you quoted?
 
S Sandhog I bought the book close to 50yrs ago. In fact you got two for £10 the main one and another with additional examples. It was an interesting idea using daily paper tipsters and the betting Fc to reduce any race to fewer possibles which where then backed in multiple bets. The process involved appeared complicated on first appraisal but when the penny finally dropped you could emulate what the author was saying and i recall paper proofing one of his approaches for a while but concluding that this type of method was not best suited to my betting mentality.

Edit : I have just checked and surprisingly still have both books. As i recall Promath also published one for the Football Pools which where of big public interest although not so for myself. At the time a mate talked me into going half's on a weekly £5 perm. The third week in he phoned me saying we have WON .............Knowing sod all about it i was straightaway thinking many thousands of pounds but it turned out to be £160. ! Anyway when he paid me my £80 i said that's me done mate count me out in future because the suspense is a killer. :)
 
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Hi mick mick , I always remember the adverts for Horace Batchelor on the Radio (Luxembourg I think) for his pools plan.

580998FD-8C86-48A0-A6EC-090B6CC5630B.jpeg
 
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