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Jack's blog attempt

Jackform

Gelding

S Sandhog, I wasn't trying to confuse you mentioning Ken Hussey as the quote was from 1979. Anyway if you wish to apply the criteria he mentioned to a race the following is an example from the man himself. I would suggest the Racing Post Topspeed as a free alternative to Ken Hussey, or Timeform at a cost. By the way the previous SF/distance figures are only from the current season. Best of luck if you try it out.

Morton Coles Punters Book (Lockinge Stakes 1m {st} Newbury 16 May 86)


Horse

Wght
Recent
SF/dist

Previous SF/distance
Wght Adjst Recnt

Best
Best Wght Adjst
Book Odds

Book Stake

Puntr Odds

Puntr
Stke
Teleprompter 3rd9-6FTOut97/8f9/1106/114
Supreme Leader 29-149/10f58/9f48/8f57/8f90/8f6/4409/218
Efisio9-138/8f37/8f83/7f14/1733/13
Scottish Reel 1st9-185/8f84/8f91/8.54/1209/430
Bollin Knight9-169/7f72/7f0/7f0/8f68/7f71/7f10/1920/15
Protection9-178/8f72/8f69/7f9/21814/17
Lucky Ring9-1FTOut82/8f12/17.550/12
Grand Harbour9-1FTOut87/7f100/11100/11
Over-round
112.5%
80%
 
Btw, Megallan has been on my "watch for" list for some time. Reason: ownership and stable.
I looked at the race and didn't think this would be his day.
Nice price, if it is. Good luck!:)
 

Jackform

Gelding
Nearly cracked it with Megallan :( . 'Keep calm and carry on' as they used to say in my youth!

Newmarket (going forecast G light rain)

6.05 Danni California (4/1 mkt 16.00) stake 16 pts (bit dodgy this with the lack of form/unexposed runners)

8.20 Colonel Faulkner (9/2 mkt 16.10) stake 5 pts, Freak Out (15/2) stake 3 pts, Alabama Boy (7/2) stake 6 pts.
 
Good luck with this, Jackform Jackform .
.
I didn't notice the latest post till a few minutes ago.
Looked up the race and went EW small on Colonel Faulkner. Not a recent winner, and not sure about the distance for the Colonel.
 

Jackform

Gelding
Close but no cigar, but not too disheartened at this stage. Anyway I will transfer to the inner sanctum on the system testing thread for a while to see how it goes :) .
 

Jackform

Gelding
As it seems there is some resurgence of interest in the VDW approach I thought I might get involved with some of my opinion :prankster: , without going any further than the 'elementary mechanical procedures' and certainly not into the realms of Roushayd.

The two 'elementary mechanical procedures' 1978 - 79 were designed to list the three most consistent runners in a race from the short odds end of the betting forecast. He also advised using other ways such as;

‘Flying Dutchman believes in consistency’
Quote: ‘Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top 5 or 6 rated and coupling with the 5 or 6 most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it interesting. In non-handicaps may I suggest sticking to the top 4 rated’.

Many punters seem to concentrate on the above failing to observe that that the most important criteria of the VDW approach was the SUBJECT TO OTHER CONSIDERATIONS element.

Sports Forum letter March 1981:

"To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of:

The class in which they ran
The courses they ran on
The pace and going of respective races
Distance won or beaten by
And most important how they performed in the later stages of each race."

Sports forum letter 23 September 1996 (under an alias) :

"I stick to the better class racetracks and believe it or not I love handicaps. 2 yr olds, maidens amateurs I don't bother with and I leave Epsom and Lingfield (turf) alone."

This is me - I will leave it there for now.
 

Jackform

Gelding
This is a copy of a post from 2016 on my 'elementary mechanical procedure' thread and going over the ground interminably :(.

Quote, "There are are numerous and varied ways to pinpoint horses which should be candidates for the winners enclosure and some years ago I put forward what seems to have become known as the VDW approach."

"The VDW approach is a method, not a system, which produces a numerical evaluation of the odds based on relevant factors thereby creating a picture from which it is possible to determine if there is a winner IN the race not OF the race. Having done this, evaluate its capability of doing so in the present situation."

"Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting he agenda is:

1 Select the most valuable race on the card,
2 Consider the next most valuable.
3. Select the most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate the entire field for ability.
5, Select the most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in betting forecast.
6. Apply selected rating method to entire field."

"....early signposts on road to success given by VDW at this juncture were:

1. Narrowing the field.
2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their Form figures.
3. Studying the first 5 in the betting forecast of non-handicap races and the first 6 in handicaps.
4. Using two rating methods (this is methods of assessment and not rating figures).
5. AND perhaps most important of all, combining these points...'subject to other considerations'."
 

markfinn

Sire
As it seems there is some resurgence of interest in the VDW approach I thought I might get involved with some of my opinion :prankster: , without going any further than the 'elementary mechanical procedures' and certainly not into the realms of Roushayd.

The two 'elementary mechanical procedures' 1978 - 79 were designed to list the three most consistent runners in a race from the short odds end of the betting forecast. He also advised using other ways such as;

‘Flying Dutchman believes in consistency’
Quote: ‘Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top 5 or 6 rated and coupling with the 5 or 6 most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it interesting. In non-handicaps may I suggest sticking to the top 4 rated’.

Many punters seem to concentrate on the above failing to observe that that the most important criteria of the VDW approach was the SUBJECT TO OTHER CONSIDERATIONS element.

Sports Forum letter March 1981:

"To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of:

The class in which they ran
The courses they ran on
The pace and going of respective races
Distance won or beaten by
And most important how they performed in the later stages of each race."

Sports forum letter 23 September 1996 (under an alias) :

"I stick to the better class racetracks and believe it or not I love handicaps. 2 yr olds, maidens amateurs I don't bother with and I leave Epsom and Lingfield (turf) alone."

This is me - I will leave it there for now.
Hi Jack hope all is well - I agree with dodging Lingfield should rename it Minefield
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Jackform Jackform

This happens quite a lot with some of the VDW examples with regards exposed form

Billet had run in the 1987 Northern Dancer the year before when he was Favourite and LTO out had won the London Gold Cup and was Favourite

Fast Forward 1 year and Billet wins the 1988 London Gold Cup and then again tackles The Northern Dancer

VDW is warning that Roushayds needs to be placed in a race that is within his class ceiling, distance, track etc

Also See Jock Bingham "Ultimate Conclusion"

Quite often Trainers will use one race as a path for the next​


EFBD76B7-D857-475B-9059-64301312C297.jpeg
 
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Jackform

Gelding
Regarding the VDW approach it needs to be remembered that racing has changed considerably in the intervening years e.g.

AW racing only began at Lingfield on 30th October 1989, so perhaps AW racing should not be considered at all.
The jumpers used to have a holiday from April until July and then there was the 'little season' until early November usually catering for the smaller yards, again a reason to avoid NH in the summer.
That leaves us with the Flat turf to concentrate on between the end of March and early November.

There are many other changes too,:

Th old course starting price reporters have gone, unfortunately. There is further change in that direction not too punters advantage either.
Before the advent of the betting tax layers paid a quarter the odds for placed horses, however, it never came back after the tax was abolished. I wonder why?
 

Jackform

Gelding
Chesham Chesham, I agree with your comments regarding trainers strategy but I don't have the time or inclination to go into the foibles of every yard, seeing as i have such poor technical ability for searching. I prefer to rely on the betting market in the main.
 

Chesham

Sire
Chesham Chesham, I agree with your comments regarding trainers strategy but I don't have the time or inclination to go into the foibles of every yard, seeing as i have such poor technical ability for searching. I prefer to rely on the betting market in the main.
Not suggesting that you change your current strategy, just an observation on my part that quite a few of VDW examples had previous form in the same Races they were mentioned in. PK had run in the Erin Before and Vouchsafe who was in the Northern Dancer went on to win the Ascot Race that he had competed in the year before. From the VDW Platform I would suggest perhaps that Hard Work which is the final part of the Platform is covered by looking at the form of individual horses and their previous placements in certain Races

Example from today, only one race to look at (Not selected Ot backed by me) but will give you an idea to explore

Gustavus Weston , ran in this race last year carried 9-11 and 9-5 today
FD6E4F5A-4773-4D3A-8FCB-FE2D08EF47E3.jpeg
 
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Jackform

Gelding
Chesham Chesham, thank you for the response as always.

The 'VDW platform' can create confusion IMO i.e.

The total approach seems to have evolved over a number of years fueled to some extent by practitioners.

a) First elementary mechanical procedure 1978 consistency from first 5/6 in betting forecast
b) Second 'elementary mechanical procedure' 1979 consistency from 3 with shortest time off track whole field. Included ratings figures that were seized on by practitioners but at the time were only used by VDW as an example whereby following top ratings alone can be wrong.
c) Class by career winning prize divided by races won, that VDW advised was the whole story as it only showed winning performance 1980.
d) More detailed explanation of 'subject to other considerations' criteria 1981.

There is also some other factors such as VDW somewhere that a modified 'elementary mechanical procedure' was required for the Flat turf.

Maybe some others I have overlooked too :prankster: .
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Jackform Jackform
It was his challenge to Jock Bingham to find how the horses he named were Nest and 2nd best bet of the day. Later he said JB he made a good stab at it, as the method was different to anything that he had shown before.

ie Valiant Warrior etc

HRB make it a bit easier to have a list of all runners who have competed in the same race last year.


Example

Only one horse to examine

E744BE98-F2F2-4627-B668-C0B63D4AE0A0.jpeg
In the last 21 runnings of today’s race only one female horse has won and that was Magical 2 years running

A46F39BF-9ECD-4B7B-9660-77AE4010C609.jpeg
This is a race that AOB farms and I can’t see Search For A Song winning this and time to wait for better opportunities
 

Jackform

Gelding
Try a few lay bets for something different :prankster:.

Ripon 4.40 Moorbik
Haydock 5.00 Lexington Knight
Sandown 7.25 Sangarius
 
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Jackform

Gelding
Weight for it? I have been waffling on the Inner Sanctum (yes, they let me on there) about form ratings and thought I might post on here from another angle that I used years ago now. Basically, it was to select possible contenders runners in handicaps and the one with with the biggest drop in weight carried from their last race as long as they are not up in race class.

I checked the Epsom 2.55 (although not a track I would usually assess) and selected Edinburgh Castle 2 tips (CBF) (5/1 mkt 09.35) class 4 - dropped 2lbs. an each-way chance?

My best ever doing this was at Uttoxeter where I selected Verasi which won at 66/1. The best thing is it had been given to Tommo, who was commentating, and the Clerk of the Scales. The reason for this was an ex-army mate got appointed as a steward and requested a tip to make his name known. My mate said Tommo asked if I had any more and he would give them out on TV fame at last :crazy:.
 
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