Industry tipsters next time out

[mick]

GLYCERINE your above is fair comment and highlights the age old question of system or method and can we get the best from combining both. ? Certainly not an easy ask with a personal example coming to mind as a few years ago just for the exercise i created a turf flat system and paper proofed it for the season. I did no back fitting so had no idea Re the possible outcome and with hindsight i was attempting to automate some of the form factors i use when working a race as a type of easy out Re making the final call.

It produced a very good profit but i also know that left to my own devices some of its best winners would have been swerved by myself. I suspect there is some type of perverted moral or lesson involved but i concluded i would rather not know. ! One of the best posts i read on a forum was from a bloke who said he used a small number of systems which produced an avg four possible bets per day but he then implemented his own judgement Re which if any would be backed. He finished by claiming excellent long term gains from this approach.

The above made good sense to me although i should add that when other members asked him to post some of his bets pre race he declined.

 

[greyabbey]

Very fair and interesting comments, thanks. I agree that some method of adjudication is probably not a bad thing for this 'system', unlike others which as you say mick will benefit from backing blindly. My trainer change system thread is a helpful example: I don't fancy most of those horses, but that's the point: it's not a ratings/form based system. It's almost counter-intuitive. Backing blindly (or not at all) is the only option.
I don't know if any members here are members of the Smart Betting Club, but they've a service currently going there which uses Pricewise's tips as a starting point, and then somebody adjudicates them further. The argument is that Pricewise is contractually obliged to tip big races for readers, and reading between the lines can focus on the tips he really likes. May be of interest to some.

 

[mick]

newcomer racing is teeming with apparent contradictions so its perhaps excusable that we backers also have them. I could not bring myself to back any system generated horse but as mentioned with the system i created attempting to use personal judgement of the worth of each selection would have sabotaged the profits yet the system rules where a product of same. !

The theory of seeking to get the best by combining both appears sound but in practice at least for myself i fear it would prove a cannot have your cake and eat it job. Once i have found a horse of interest off my ratings i do deploy filters both positive and negative as an aide to the profiling process but the vast majority of these are used flexibly, and this is the closest i can get to obtaining the happy medium.

Reading my above prior to posting i have just experienced a what if moment. dave58 uses a portfolio of profitable systems so in future once i have a horse of interest who shows positive via my methods i shall be contacting Dave asking is this a qualifier on one of your systems and use this as the straightener.

 

[OnTheNod]

I find with system sometimes horses which you think have no chance at all on form win, i do use form on some sprints though if i feel that many factors are against like with CP today i suppose it is just inbred in me from past experience.

But yes if doing both i feel it is best to keep each separate and operate in that manner personally.

 

[greyabbey]

A trainer change system is one of the few examples I'd back blindly, mick as that's where the logic is: you're arguably explicitly looking for horses who haven't shown much.

Interestingly, I'm beginning to look at it the same way as you but inversely. I'm gradually building up some systems/profiles, then I'm merging that with a ratings system I'm building: the idea being that the top rated/second rated might perform well. Whichever way it's led (profile- or rating-), I think there's potential mileage in the idea.

 

[markfinn]

Btw, when it comes to waiting for certain horses, I'm finding that the ones I want to see are just not coming out of a certain stable I follow .
This has got me thinking that something may be up.
Has the owner pulled his horses from the yard? Why is a former regular jockey now riding for other yards more?
Is there sickness in the yard?
Are there no longer suitable races?

All things I could do with finding out.
I'll have to be patient tlll restrictions are lifted and I'm able to try to find out.
All part of the mystery of racing.

I'm often wondering what the hell is going on.

If you let me know who you are looking for - I can find out via proform - can post it or PM me

 

[mick]

Interestingly, I'm beginning to look at it the same way as you but inversely. I'm gradually building up some systems/profiles, then I'm merging that with a ratings system I'm building: the idea being that the top rated/second rated might perform well. Whichever way it's led (profile- or rating-), I think there's potential mileage in the idea.

Sounds an interesting project and best of. If you feel able please update us with any progress. Which should come first rating or profile is another chicken or egg type problem. I use rating but am always receptive to counter arguments.

 

[Sandhog]

Thank you, markfinn !

Just wondered what happened to any of his (Dave L) winter AW winners; some ridden by Rossa Ryan.
The pattern I expect seems to be no more.

Any info on the stable would be welcomed by me. I'm thinking that with the advent of "proper racing" with all the Big Guns back on duty, things may be much more difficult.
I note one old stalwart, Manjaam is set to go NH.

Cheers, it' not vital to me, as I feel I may need to wait till next winter for any return to good form.

 

[markfinn]

Thank you, markfinn !

Just wondered what happened to any of his (Dave L) winter AW winners; some ridden by Rossa Ryan.
The pattern I expect seems to be no more.

Any info on the stable would be welcomed by me. I'm thinking that with the advent of "proper racing" with all the Big Guns back on duty, things may be much more difficult.
I note one old stalwart, Manjaam is set to go NH.

Cheers, it' not vital to me, as I feel I may need to wait till next winter for any return to good form.

Which Dave L ?

 

[dave58]

newcomer racing is teeming with apparent contradictions so its perhaps excusable that we backers also have them. I could not bring myself to back any system generated horse but as mentioned with the system i created attempting to use personal judgement of the worth of each selection would have sabotaged the profits yet the system rules where a product of same. !

The theory of seeking to get the best by combining both appears sound but in practice at least for myself i fear it would prove a cannot have your cake and eat it job. Once i have found a horse of interest off my ratings i do deploy filters both positive and negative as an aide to the profiling process but the vast majority of these are used flexibly, and this is the closest i can get to obtaining the happy medium.

Reading my above prior to posting i have just experienced a what if moment. dave58 uses a portfolio of profitable systems so in future once i have a horse of interest who shows positive via my methods i shall be contacting Dave asking is this a qualifier on one of your systems and use this as the straightener.

I had a similar thought a good while ago. Occasionally the same horse is chosen by two different systems and I wondered if when this happened it would lead to better results. I kept records of them for a while and came to the conclusion that it was just one of those things, and made no difference to the profits made.

 

[greyabbey]

Sounds an interesting project and best of. If you feel able please update us with any progress. Which should come first rating or profile is another chicken or egg type problem. I use rating but am always receptive to counter arguments.

I'll try with anything that looks promising. I posted a message on the ratings area last week as I'm a novice, and was seeking guidance about building them on HRB. I'll keep plugging away.

 

[Sandhog]

markfinn ,

David Loughnane.

He was doing fine. Then I noticed a bit of a slump.
Baby Steps is due to run today, so, maybe, I'll be wiser after that race. At one time, Baby Steps was on his "promising" list in a stable tour. In my view, it has been a bit disappointing. They seem to let him blast off at a fierce pace and then fade. Though carrying low weight, I seem to have been waiting in vain for a turnaround and a better result.

 

[OnTheNod]

On my systems their seems a bias towards sprints, i have some setup that way of course, but some are not even considering distance yet seem to favour the shorter trips, so i have setup separate contingent ones as well for a guide to the figures.

 

[markfinn]

markfinn ,

David Loughnane.

He was doing fine. Then I noticed a bit of a slump.
Baby Steps is due to run today, so, maybe, I'll be wiser after that race. At one time, Baby Steps was on his "promising" list in a stable tour. In my view, it has been a bit disappointing. They seem to let him blast off at a fierce pace and then fade. Though carrying low weight, I seem to have been waiting in vain for a turnaround and a better result.

Based on number of runners - where I consider to be backable - I have him as 1 winner in a 25 day winner window trainer




SR by month last 4 years

Clearly has highs and lows but April is generally a good month - his better owners have been

Bamford And Fell

Binns, Bamford, Corless & Fell

D Lowe & S Hoyland

Fell & High Hopes Partnership

Lowe, Lewis And Hoyland

Mr Alan Gray

Mr Alex Percy

Mr Gary Dewhurst

Mr M Chung

Mr Peter Onslow

Mr Stephen Louch

Ms S Lynas

Peter R Ball & Gentech Products Ltd

Ratcliffe, Meakins, Mr&Mrs Kemp

Shughal Mela Racing

Sohi & Hoyland

min 2 wins and around about 20% SR

 

[Sandhog]

Thank you very much, markfinn!

I have a feeling that Hoyland is his wife/partner. May be wrong; 'll check.
Any idea what's happened with Rossa Ryan? He was riding quite a few for him.

 

[markfinn]

Thank you very much, markfinn!

I have a feeling that Hoyland is his wife/partner. May be wrong; 'll check.
Any idea what's happened with Rossa Ryan? He was riding quite a few for him.

I did run a jockeys report but away at the moment , swimming lessons - not my own - on top of a days grandadding - where does the time go.

I believe that doomster is upto speed to Jockey placements perhaps he can add some info - Re Trainers partners etc owning stable horses is always helpful thanks for that all info gratefully received

 

[doomster]

There is an actual interview with Loughnane regarding his annual barren spell on the turf and he's basically clueless, as to why.

I think if you had to back one of his on turf , a LTO run on the a/w appears to help.

Sohi does churn over his horses, so DL may have lost a few.

I think Ryan's main retainer is with Hannon, so his availability for DL would be an issue, especially as he runs his at different tracks.

 

[Sandhog]

Thank you both.
It is some time since I reported that I was ditching D.Loughnane for C. Wall, now that the turf is going. Of course, Dave promptly put in a winner.
This following trainers and jockeys is a bit of a messy business.
Yesterday, I had two I like ( actually three) in the same race. My bigger bet was for C. Hills' runner, with another on the KR Burke winning favourite.
My major bet came a close second to the lesser bet.
Very difficult to know what to do, unless applying a mathematical dutching formula.
Instead, I took an opinion and came second.

Without being more disciplined, I feel these situations will occur over and over. Just a case of inevitable risk plus careless punting, I guess.

As for my idea that Sarah Hoyland is Sarah Loughnane,, I must admit I'm not so sure now.

 

[markfinn]

Thank you both.
It is some time since I reported that I was ditching D.Loughnane for C. Wall, now that the turf is going. Of course, Dave promptly put in a winner.
This following trainers and jockeys is a bit of a messy business.
Yesterday, I had two I like ( actually three) in the same race. My bigger bet was for C. Hills' runner, with another on the KR Burke winning favourite.
My major bet came a close second to the lesser bet.
Very difficult to know what to do, unless applying a mathematical dutching formula.
Instead, I took an opinion and came second.

Without being more disciplined, I feel these situations will occur over and over. Just a case of inevitable risk plus careless punting, I guess.

As for my idea that Sarah Hoyland is Sarah Loughnane,, I must admit I'm not so sure now.

David Lowe and some others seem to get R R services as required when riding for DL