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How to start

twmills

twmills

Colt
Hi I hope someone may be able to help I have only just started looking at horse racing with interest, and one thing that appeals to me is to try and do some kind of rating for horses, but I do not know how or even how to start, can anyone point me in the right direction, or recommend any good books on the subject of compiling ratings.

Thank You
 
Thanks Dave58 had a look at the posts I did not understand what JIB ratings were or how they are compiled and not sure about the other method of dividing the OR by rules races if that really works.
 
I figured out how a chap called JIB (John In Brazil) compiled his own ratings. He did have some success with his ratings.

This is how he worked them out.

JIB used the Average OR of the First 5 in the Betting non Handicaps and the Average OR of the first 6 in the betting Handicaps, to arrive at the Class of Race and then applied his formula to distance beaten.

Finishing dist (in lengths) x 15 / race dist (in furlongs) = lbs


He could be following a horse for ages until he thought that he was entered against beatable opposition. The example below is by JIB
When deciding the class of the race about to be run he would use the first five or six in the Racing Post Forecast with regards to average OR's

In the example below OH = Official Handicapper


Quote JIB: On the 11-07-06 Fantasy Believer faced opposition I rate at 78. However if I was rating the race before the off I would be using the fc rather than the result so there could be a slight variation between these two ratings.

Taking his last 16 runs before 11-07-06 with the most ancient first.

Starting on a mark of 93:
1) (93) rates 77 against opposition rated 81. (Gets 2lbs from the OH )
2) (91) rates 85 against opposition rated 83. (OH changes his mind and gives him 3lbs )
3) (94) rates 87 against opposition rated 93. (OH takes leave of his senses and drops the horse 5lbs! )
4) (89) rates 92 against opposition rated 94. (OH hands him back 4lbs )
5) (93) rates 90 against opposition rated at 99. No change.
6) (93) rates 94 against opposition rated at 98. No change
7) (93) unseated rider. No change.
8) (93) poor effort on soft going. No Change.
9) (93) another poor effort on heavy. (3lbs from the OH )
End of 2005 season.
10) (90) poor effort on seasonal debut. (3lbs from the OH )
11) (87) another poor effort on soft. (2lbs from the OH )
12) (85) rates 84 against opposition rated 90. (Another 1lb )
13) (84) rates only 68 against opposition rated 86. However looking at the result the draw could have been a big negative. Another 1lb ) Now down 10lbs from his peak.
14) (83) rates 78 against opposition rated 85. Yet another 1lb )
15) (82) rates 75 against opposition rated 92. No change.
16) (82) rates 77 against opposition rated 83. (Another 2lbs )

So on 11-7-06 Fantasy Believer was up against the weakest opposition since his previous win 16 races before. Furthermore although he was some way short of his peak the year before his recent performances show that he was consistently running to the same level of the opposition he was about to face.

This year I have learned the importance of a horse having beatable opposition. On this aspect Fantasy Believer scores heavily as his trainer has found him a v raggedy arsed bunch to run against under ideal conditions.

Incidentally the win on 11-07-06 ratesat 80.

The Formula that JIB Uses for runners who are behind the winner.

finishing dist (in lengths) x 15 / race dist (in furlongs) = lbs

If The race is 8f and the class rated 80 by Jib then a horse who was 2 lengths away from the winner would be rated 80-3.75 = a rating of 76.5

Calculation (beaten 2l X 15) / (Race Distance 8f)

Ascot 3.45 Saturday

The OR of first 6 in the betting

107 95 100 96 97 99 Average = 99 which will be JIBs Race Class for this race

Mabait was 3rd beat 1.75 Lengths

His rating = =(1.75*15)/7 = 3.75 or rounded up = 4

Race Class 99 minus 4 = 95

So Jib would have this horse rated 95 in a class 99 of an official Handicap Rating (OR) = 97

Personally I think JIB should use finishing dist (in lengths) x 17.5 / race dist (in furlongs) = lbs
 
Thank You Chesham I think I understand will look more closely and see if I can use this in any way
 
Hi can you look at this and tell me if I am doing it right does Comino have a chance or have I got it completely wrong
 

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whu said:
Thanks Dave58 had a look at the posts I did not understand what JIB ratings were or how they are compiled and not sure about the other method of dividing the OR by rules races if that really works.
Click to expand...

whu said:
Hi can you look at this and tell me if I am doing it right does Comino have a chance or have I got it completely wrong
Click to expand...

I have not checked your figures against the JIB Formula but they look right against my own class ratings.

With JIB remember that he was following a horse until he thought it was due to race against Donkeys

Quote JIB

This year I have learned the importance of a horse having beatable opposition. On this aspect Fantasy Believer scores heavily as his trainer has found him a v raggedy arsed bunch to run against under ideal conditions.

Note how he followed Fantasy Believer and the Class Of Race he had been competing and the Ratings Achieved, compared to the race where JIB backed him

Quote JIB: On the 11-07-06 Fantasy Believer faced opposition I rate at 78. However if I was rating the race before the off I would be using the fc rather than the result so there could be a slight variation between these two ratings.

Taking his last 16 runs before 11-07-06 with the most ancient first.

Starting on a mark of 93:
1) (93) rates 77 against opposition rated 81. (Gets 2lbs from the OH )
2) (91) rates 85 against opposition rated 83. (OH changes his mind and gives him 3lbs )
3) (94) rates 87 against opposition rated 93. (OH takes leave of his senses and drops the horse 5lbs! )
4) (89) rates 92 against opposition rated 94. (OH hands him back 4lbs )
5) (93) rates 90 against opposition rated at 99. No change.
6) (93) rates 94 against opposition rated at 98. No change
7) (93) unseated rider. No change.
8) (93) poor effort on soft going. No Change.
9) (93) another poor effort on heavy. (3lbs from the OH )
End of 2005 season.
10) (90) poor effort on seasonal debut. (3lbs from the OH )
11) (87) another poor effort on soft. (2lbs from the OH )
12) (85) rates 84 against opposition rated 90. (Another 1lb )
13) (84) rates only 68 against opposition rated 86. However looking at the result the draw could have been a big negative. Another 1lb ) Now down 10lbs from his peak.
14) (83) rates 78 against opposition rated 85. Yet another 1lb )
15) (82) rates 75 against opposition rated 92. No change.
16) (82) rates 77 against opposition rated 83. (Another 2lbs )

So on 11-7-06 Fantasy Believer was up against the weakest opposition since his previous win 16 races before. Furthermore although he was some way short of his peak the year before his recent performances show that he was consistently running to the same level of the opposition he was about to face.
 
I am sorry Chesham being new to racing I just do not understand how he is on a mark of 93 rates 77 opposition 81 and so forth Thank you for your efforts to help me
 
whu said:
I just do not understand how he is on a mark of 93 rates 77 opposition 81 and so forth
Click to expand...
The mark of 93 is official Handicap mark for the selection
He is rated 77 this is the individual ratings based on the calcs on your sheet
The opposition rating is the class rating of the race he is in today.
 
So now I know how to produce a class rating, how do I best use it, and can someone explain the difference to the ratings in the RP, what is the difference between the OR, TS, RPR, can the three be combined in anyway to form a single rating
 
whu said:
So now I know how to produce a class rating, how do I best use it, and can someone explain the difference to the ratings in the RP, what is the difference between the OR, TS, RPR, can the three be combined in anyway to form a single rating
Click to expand...


You could but I wouldn't recommend it. I am not 100% certain but RPR has a difference of around 7lbs-10lbs from official ratings.

It depends what you want as a rating. The JIB formula that Chesham Chesham outlined is very good but as with all ratings it takes work.

If you are wanting 'an edge' then using Topspeed and RPR probably won't be the best place to start. How many people are compiling ratings, probably hundreds, how many people are using the Racing Post Ratings, probably thousands.

Didn't the top three of the JIB ratings you compiled yesterday capture Favourite Treat. Seems as good a place to start looking at the top three rated.
 
Thanks mlmrob yes they did and looking at the ratings there is something to work on but out of the top three ratings how would you have picked Favourite Treat to have won
 
whu said:
Thanks mlmrob yes they did and looking at the ratings there is something to work on but out of the top three ratings how would you have picked Favourite Treat to have won
Click to expand...

With regards horses like Favourite Treat they are difficult to predict, the 33/1 price tells you that the Trainer was probably caught by surprise too. The Horse was Dropping in BHA ratings but improved on hois LTO Run fro its 3 rd LTO Run and its BHA Rating from 78 down to 73

Some stick out like sore thumbs and those are the ones to back when they have everything going for them

See Below (Chesham Class ratings, Different method to JIB, but JIB Rating would probably work out Similar)

[URL="http://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/cheshams-way-of-using-stats.3900/"]Cheshams Way of Using Stats[/URL]
 
whu said:
Thanks mlmrob yes they did and looking at the ratings there is something to work on but out of the top three ratings how would you have picked Favourite Treat to have won
Click to expand...

If you had a spreadsheet or database of the JIB ratings achieved you would have seen Favourable Treat recorded a figure of 78 in August of last year at Redcar over 8f on good to firm ground.

Looking at Favourable Treat's runs since then there was only his next run at Redcar where he finished seventh and yesterday where he could be considered.

He was last on his seasonal debut this year, no surprise there as he's 0-11 after a fortnight + off the track
He then went to Catterick over 7f on soft ground. Doesn't handle the track as he needs a flat track and good to firm to show his best according to JIB ratings.
He then went to Thirsk over 7f where he led until 1f out. Weakened to finish 6th of 7 but still managed a third best JIB rating for this race.

He marked his card though.

Yesterday back up to 8f, again on a flat track. He could have been backed.
 
@whu . You have received some excellent insight from a bunch of people who are really very good at what they do. However, I sense that you are a complete beginner and therefore I am going to tackle the issue in a different way. It is then up to you which way you choose to go.

Working out your own ratings is a very difficult science indeed and unless you are either very good or very lucky, with your current level of expertise you are likely to get it wrong and lose a lot of money. If you follow the JIB method or any other method really, you need to understand a bit of the logic and all of the terminology behind it. I suggest for starters you go slowly and educate yourself by subscribing to Timeform. Not cheap but they provide full and detailed explanations of what they do and why they do it. Once you have mastered that and you know what ratings are all about, then I suggest you move on to the excellent sets of different ratings on this site. When you feel that you have mastered the logic behind those, then and only then try working out your own ratings.

Sadly, there is no magic bullet, and it may take you years to get to the point where you start making regular profits.

Also never forget that ratings are simply an expression of opinion, and so different sets of ratings will produce different suggestions as to the winner of a race. You will have to exercise judgement, and that only comes with experience.

I have no connection to Timeform, except as a long term subscriber , and I only suggest them because they do produce good explanations of their methods. Whatever you choose to do, you will learn much from the wealth of wisdom on this site. First of all treat racing as a hobby, and if you make money at it, so much the better!
 
Thanks guys I have so much to learn and I need a lot more help yet, I am not the brightest spark, ok taken the ratings I did produce with Chesham's help how can I improve them
 
You will improve by watching the racing and the results day after day after day after day. You will get it wrong most of the time, that is normal at first. Go over the results , consider why you got it wrong, and try again and learn from your mistakes. Nobody, but nobody, can tell you the secrets of successful betting in a couple of sentences. You have to collect the experience over several years.
 
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