• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
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    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
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    Best Wishes
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    Keep safe.
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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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    Best Wishes
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Horse Of The Day (loss recovery)

MartinK

Colt
At around 10am I'll post the most likely horse of the day to win (in my questionable opinion!). Aim: to win £40 (therefore today's stake at 10-11 = £44).

If it loses, then tomorrow I stake to recover today's loss, without making a profit. If tomorrow's loses, the day after I stake to recover today's and tomorrow's stakes, again without making a profit. This is to stop stakes ramping up like crazy.

Odds will be 5-6 to 6-4.

Profits will only come from a series of winning bets, not from a winner after a loser/s.

I'm sure this is doomed to failure!
 

dave58

Administrator
MartinK MartinK, at first reading this sounded bonkers (sorry!) but after thinking about it, it actually sounds like a sensible staking plan - far better than loss recovery.
Have you tried paper trading it? - just wondering about longest losing runs and if you have the bank to cope with them.
Good luck with it - hope it works out well mate.
 

Aliantora

Yearling
I have tried similar in the past, and they are rarely successful! It is the long losing runs that just wipe out any part of the fun of it.
Although the ones I tried were to make profit, then eventually went to loss recovery mode.
The last one I tried was following jockeys. Oisin Murphy is riding at 23%, therefore he's not going to have that long a losing streak it'll break my bank right?? Wrong!! :doh:
From a quick paper test backing 10-11 shots (that all lose), on the 8th day your stake would be £85, and loss at that point would be up to £500, if my maths is right?

DayStakeOddsTo WinResultTo Recover
1​
£ 44.00
0.909091​
£ 40.00no£ 44.00
2​
£ 48.40
0.909091​
£ 44.00no£ 48.40
3​
£ 53.24
0.909091​
£ 48.40no£ 53.24
4​
£ 58.56
0.909091​
£ 53.24no£ 58.56
5​
£ 64.42
0.909091​
£ 58.56no£ 64.42
6​
£ 70.86
0.909091​
£ 64.42no£ 70.86
7​
£ 77.95
0.909091​
£ 70.86no£ 77.95
8​
£ 85.74
0.909091​
£ 77.95no£ 85.74
Total£ 503.18

this isn't a comment in anyway as to your ability to pick winners! just a what could be the worst that happens in a week !
 

MartinK

Colt
MartinK MartinK, at first reading this sounded bonkers (sorry!) but after thinking about it, it actually sounds like a sensible staking plan - far better than loss recovery.
Have you tried paper trading it? - just wondering about longest losing runs and if you have the bank to cope with them.
Good luck with it - hope it works out well mate.
Hi Dave, I haven't paper-traded this, it was just a daft Sunday idea which I don't really expect to work. Re. losing runs, I'm sure to have 6 consecutive losers at some point, especially in the winter when biblical rain appears and soft ground turns to bottomless. Re. betting bank, I'll say £2,000, which will probably be blown at some point in the next 2 or 3 months.

Needless to say, I'm not putting a penny of my money on this. It's just for amusement (I've got a weird sense of "fun"!).
 

MartinK

Colt
I have tried similar in the past, and they are rarely successful! It is the long losing runs that just wipe out any part of the fun of it.
Although the ones I tried were to make profit, then eventually went to loss recovery mode.
The last one I tried was following jockeys. Oisin Murphy is riding at 23%, therefore he's not going to have that long a losing streak it'll break my bank right?? Wrong!! :doh:
From a quick paper test backing 10-11 shots (that all lose), on the 8th day your stake would be £85, and loss at that point would be up to £500, if my maths is right?

DayStakeOddsTo WinResultTo Recover
1​
£ 44.00
0.909091​
£ 40.00no£ 44.00
2​
£ 48.40
0.909091​
£ 44.00no£ 48.40
3​
£ 53.24
0.909091​
£ 48.40no£ 53.24
4​
£ 58.56
0.909091​
£ 53.24no£ 58.56
5​
£ 64.42
0.909091​
£ 58.56no£ 64.42
6​
£ 70.86
0.909091​
£ 64.42no£ 70.86
7​
£ 77.95
0.909091​
£ 70.86no£ 77.95
8​
£ 85.74
0.909091​
£ 77.95no£ 85.74
Total£ 503.18

this isn't a comment in anyway as to your ability to pick winners! just a what could be the worst that happens in a week !
Hi fella, hopefully most of what you say is covered in my reply to Dave, above. As you suggest, it's the inevitable string of consecutive losers that will put the mockers on this. Hang 'em high!
 

Aliantora

Yearling
Now I've seen a few more days in practice I've revised my sheet, I hadn't understood just quite how you were doing it first time around...

DayStakeOddsTo WinResultAccumulated Loss
1£ 44.000.91£ 40.00no£ 44.00
2£ 48.400.91£ 44.00no£ 92.40
3£ 101.640.91£ 92.40no£ 194.04
4£ 213.440.91£ 194.04no£ 407.48
5£ 448.230.91£ 407.48no£ 855.72
6£ 941.290.91£ 855.72no£ 1,797.00
7£ 1,976.700.91£1,797.00no£ 3,773.71
8£ 4,151.080.91£3,773.71no£ 7,924.79
Total
£7,924.79​

I'd be running from this one I think! 🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️
 
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