Horse Of The Day (loss recovery)
- Thread starter MartinK
- Start date
MartinK
Gelding
At around 10am I'll post the most likely horse of the day to win (in my questionable opinion!). Aim: to win £40 (therefore today's stake at 10-11 = £44).
If it loses, then tomorrow I stake to recover today's loss, without making a profit. If tomorrow's loses, the day after I stake to recover today's and tomorrow's stakes, again without making a profit. This is to stop stakes ramping up like crazy.
Odds will be 5-6 to 6-4.
Profits will only come from a series of winning bets, not from a winner after a loser/s.
I'm sure this is doomed to failure!
If it loses, then tomorrow I stake to recover today's loss, without making a profit. If tomorrow's loses, the day after I stake to recover today's and tomorrow's stakes, again without making a profit. This is to stop stakes ramping up like crazy.
Odds will be 5-6 to 6-4.
Profits will only come from a series of winning bets, not from a winner after a loser/s.
I'm sure this is doomed to failure!
dave58
Administrator
MartinK, at first reading this sounded bonkers (sorry!) but after thinking about it, it actually sounds like a sensible staking plan - far better than loss recovery.Have you tried paper trading it? - just wondering about longest losing runs and if you have the bank to cope with them.
Good luck with it - hope it works out well mate.
I have tried similar in the past, and they are rarely successful! It is the long losing runs that just wipe out any part of the fun of it.
Although the ones I tried were to make profit, then eventually went to loss recovery mode.
The last one I tried was following jockeys. Oisin Murphy is riding at 23%, therefore he's not going to have that long a losing streak it'll break my bank right?? Wrong!!
From a quick paper test backing 10-11 shots (that all lose), on the 8th day your stake would be £85, and loss at that point would be up to £500, if my maths is right?
this isn't a comment in anyway as to your ability to pick winners! just a what could be the worst that happens in a week !
Although the ones I tried were to make profit, then eventually went to loss recovery mode.
The last one I tried was following jockeys. Oisin Murphy is riding at 23%, therefore he's not going to have that long a losing streak it'll break my bank right?? Wrong!!
From a quick paper test backing 10-11 shots (that all lose), on the 8th day your stake would be £85, and loss at that point would be up to £500, if my maths is right?
| Day | Stake | Odds | To Win | Result | To Recover |
1 | £ 44.00 | 0.909091 | £ 40.00 | no | £ 44.00 |
2 | £ 48.40 | 0.909091 | £ 44.00 | no | £ 48.40 |
3 | £ 53.24 | 0.909091 | £ 48.40 | no | £ 53.24 |
4 | £ 58.56 | 0.909091 | £ 53.24 | no | £ 58.56 |
5 | £ 64.42 | 0.909091 | £ 58.56 | no | £ 64.42 |
6 | £ 70.86 | 0.909091 | £ 64.42 | no | £ 70.86 |
7 | £ 77.95 | 0.909091 | £ 70.86 | no | £ 77.95 |
8 | £ 85.74 | 0.909091 | £ 77.95 | no | £ 85.74 |
| Total | £ 503.18 |
this isn't a comment in anyway as to your ability to pick winners! just a what could be the worst that happens in a week !
MartinK
Gelding
Hi Dave, I haven't paper-traded this, it was just a daft Sunday idea which I don't really expect to work. Re. losing runs, I'm sure to have 6 consecutive losers at some point, especially in the winter when biblical rain appears and soft ground turns to bottomless. Re. betting bank, I'll say £2,000, which will probably be blown at some point in the next 2 or 3 months.
Have you tried paper trading it? - just wondering about longest losing runs and if you have the bank to cope with them.
Good luck with it - hope it works out well mate.
Needless to say, I'm not putting a penny of my money on this. It's just for amusement (I've got a weird sense of "fun"!).
MartinK
Gelding
Hi fella, hopefully most of what you say is covered in my reply to Dave, above. As you suggest, it's the inevitable string of consecutive losers that will put the mockers on this. Hang 'em high!I have tried similar in the past, and they are rarely successful! It is the long losing runs that just wipe out any part of the fun of it.
Although the ones I tried were to make profit, then eventually went to loss recovery mode.
The last one I tried was following jockeys. Oisin Murphy is riding at 23%, therefore he's not going to have that long a losing streak it'll break my bank right?? Wrong!!
From a quick paper test backing 10-11 shots (that all lose), on the 8th day your stake would be £85, and loss at that point would be up to £500, if my maths is right?
Day Stake Odds To Win Result To Recover £ 44.00 £ 40.00 no £ 44.00 £ 48.40 £ 44.00 no £ 48.40 £ 53.24 £ 48.40 no £ 53.24 £ 58.56 £ 53.24 no £ 58.56 £ 64.42 £ 58.56 no £ 64.42 £ 70.86 £ 64.42 no £ 70.86 £ 77.95 £ 70.86 no £ 77.95 £ 85.74 £ 77.95 no £ 85.74 Total £ 503.18
this isn't a comment in anyway as to your ability to pick winners! just a what could be the worst that happens in a week !
Now I've seen a few more days in practice I've revised my sheet, I hadn't understood just quite how you were doing it first time around...
I'd be running from this one I think!
| Day | Stake | Odds | To Win | Result | Accumulated Loss |
| 1 | £ 44.00 | 0.91 | £ 40.00 | no | £ 44.00 |
| 2 | £ 48.40 | 0.91 | £ 44.00 | no | £ 92.40 |
| 3 | £ 101.64 | 0.91 | £ 92.40 | no | £ 194.04 |
| 4 | £ 213.44 | 0.91 | £ 194.04 | no | £ 407.48 |
| 5 | £ 448.23 | 0.91 | £ 407.48 | no | £ 855.72 |
| 6 | £ 941.29 | 0.91 | £ 855.72 | no | £ 1,797.00 |
| 7 | £ 1,976.70 | 0.91 | £1,797.00 | no | £ 3,773.71 |
| 8 | £ 4,151.08 | 0.91 | £3,773.71 | no | £ 7,924.79 |
| Total | £7,924.79 |
I'd be running from this one I think!