Hello Sean
you need to compare apples with apples ..... hence straight and round are simply NOT. the longer you travel the more VARIANCE you will get both in Early Pace and Overall Time ..... i always refer to the anally retentive MBA types (who do get the shits i might add). They can't handle the chaos of Horse Racing .... you must embrace it to succeed. My daily track variants are just ...a DAILY meeting variant / adjustment which is composed of a daily departure from standard (in your case perhaps seasonal) for each race. Me I remove the noise from data by filtering distance to less than and to equal say a mile. when u apply eventually yes u are hoping that you are "negating" the long distance effect but at least you should be under. so you don't want to over compensate for the longer, longer distances imo do muddy the waters. longer distance contribute less which as far as volume goes. when u model via AI u can allow for seasonal adjusts elsewhere. there is no RIGHT WAY btw. given what i have already said a Weighted Average is an alternative way. btw common sense always helps ... say breaking up the longer distances to common ground covered is another way which can be extrapolated out .... being open to different ways to solve the riddle helps. oh and i should say that a little basic goes a very long way.
