Thanks, will have a read of this. It is funny that in the first few pages he also points out the class system is a mess.
Hong Kong Speed Figures
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
not having read the attachment as yet, thanks for attaching it's good to read anything speed related. But also I'd like to find an read anything to do with Speed ratings and Field Size and how field size impacts track speed ratings, I know it effects greyhound racing , and HK normally races consistent field sizes.
pawras
Stallion
There are punters that still believe ground conditions don't matter and say things like "good horses go on any ground", soft ground nearly got Frankel beat.
Think it’s a bad ride when a jockey feels the need to thrash a horse like a banshee in the final furlong, Purton should have more respect for that horse, maybe an excuse with the draw but he seemed flat between the 400 and 150, Headwall seemed to be wider and come from behind him to briefly head him at the 150, I think ground conditions more the equaliser than the draw or position on track, the whipping was ridiculous. Seen horses ruined by this treatment.
I know little of greyhounds W woof43 , i started a greyhound rating system for U.K. this week, mainly because
The Hare is ambig greyhound fan and I was building scrapers for the results and then seen the potential when I had the data, it surprises me field size would matter that is interesting , I would have just assumed it is instinct and they chase the lure, unlike in horse racing where humans are messing with them.
ARAZI91 has posted at least a dozen posts about impact of field sizes , not sure directly relating to speed ratings though.Post in thread 'General CHAT'
http://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/general-chat.134585/post-646619 was one I remembered maybe not 100% relevant to your question, I bet he would have something on you question in his bag of tricks though.
Just looked at the twitter , he seems good, he posts stuff about HK and what he posts looks great, but he’s charging and posting the good ones after the race so maybe not as good as it looks, but clearly has some clue.
Certainly not the greatest ride though i didn't feel there was any "thrashing", does anyone know how the final time matched against last years ?
This is pure thrashing like a banshee, zero time to respond , in my opinion horrific riding and the horse deserves much better than this.
Yeah that angle doesn't look good even with pro-cush.
doomster
Sire
I thought the comments below were referring to ths years meeting @ Randwick as it came up on my feed yesterday
O
Outlander
Virtually the same time 0.08 seconds slower win time, he wasn’t great in the race last year either.
Yes I remember that , she is a right character, combination of things got him beat yesterday , the whipping was sad though. Purtons record speaks for itself in a competitive environment, I can’t warm to him mainly not his fault, his mounts are seriously over bet. He does have his fair share of stewards reports where he gets his mounts in bother. I think last time I looked his average market position was 2.4 in an environment where 99% of races are 12-14 runner handicaps, it is unbelievable with the slight question marks, barrier, not at best previously in Aus , beaten in recent trial, and soft going he went off 1.05 on the world pool when I looked he was 1.53 on betfair. All that said his speed figures in HK are genuinely superb.
pawras
Stallion
yes I thought Rob may have something of note , I know, in most situations you need to allow for field size or normalisation. So i generally run a Daily exp/act TV and then a Race exp/act tv. So generally the field size is 8 but you may only use half that number in calculating the Race TV. In the attachment there are 6 columns, the Weight column is basically the SE for each race +sum(1/+sum(stdev/(sqrt(#of starters in calculation)))^2) which will be a large number, then you's sum each race's SE weight to get a total, the wght_norm is just normalising Weight column +sum(weight/ total of weight col), then using sumproduct you would +sumproduct(weight_column array, TV_col array/sum of weight col)) this will then produce a correctly weighted TV which in this case is -.1676. my actual Daily exp/act TV for this meeting was -.1265 and just a simple average of all of the TV column is -.1015, why does it all matter casue if you look at 3rd row 463073 +.2859 this race is a complete outlier ( the winner actually led all the way from box 1 running what it should, but it will get the -.1676 and all the placegetters will have a different exp/act TV but the missing piece is 8 runners vs. 3 runners were in the original TV calculation. I should have asked AI to explain it betterI know little of greyhounds W woof43 , i started a greyhound rating system for U.K. this week, mainly because
Post in thread 'General CHAT'
http://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/general-chat.134585/post-646619 was one I remembered maybe not 100% relevant to your question, I bet he would have something on you question in his bag of tricks though.
W woof43 I asked this question on
The Hare greyhound thread just earlier, say you have historical greyhound ratings, how do you get the best out of them for todays race, how long should you look back for ratings, can you safely transfer track distance ratings to other tracks/distances, best last x number of runs, best x numbers of days ago, some kind of decay system, averages , what is best for assessing greyhounds, only started this week and looking for pointers for beginner.I was impressed with your app Mike so I did a quick create of one for Tas greyhounds, with only the detail that actually matters for each runner and all its starts.
Excellent W woof43 , will have a good look at this, am going to have a go at doing this for U.K. greyhounds, but I’m a beginners, maybe take some pointers from your app