Hong Kong Speed Figures

[Outlander]

Not been paying usual attention, did catch the Romantic Warrior race and thought they dismissed that enquiry pretty quick, i know they are straightest jurisdiction, but would have been interesting if it was the Japanese horse barging their home hero into a dead end.
2400m probably beyond RW optimum, i remember last time he raced the distance sandwiched between Russian Emperor and that goliath of the turf Five G Patch who i think got stayer on the year despite not winning a race. Was on fumes in the desert when MacDonald overused him and 2000m probably the maximum to show his true ability.
Wednesday ratings attached

 

[desimal]

Better late than ever, been quite busy, here was a very quick summary of how I saw tonight.

R1----
Solar River pass mark resuming after 9months LS, but the recent trial was good time for a C5 horse, might be ready to go 2U with a good draw/map.

Exceed the Wish - was racing great at 1200 with good enough figures, has tried various shorter & longer trips recently to no success but it's pushed his rating down a bunch from last time racing 1200. So back to the right distance, with the weight drop, BP3, & Purton on.

Bingo Babe - 4th run for new stable, excuses previous runs but showing merit with sectionals / trial etc. BP11 + recent excuses should give a good price, TRICKY MAP but could roll forward.

Winning Diamond - down a tone in ratings after racing at longer trips / other excuses lately, harder one to gauge back to 1200 here but BP5/Bowman positives.

Basic Instinct solid too.

R2----
Rosewood Fleetfoot or All Are Mine surely winning this?

All Are Mine got stuck behind fading horse(roarer) & couldn't build momentum in time in sit & sprint, but respect the form before it & the SP.

Rosewood Fleetfoot from same race came wide & splits were huge, winner just had the perfect race shape/trip. Has been threatening for a long time.

Rosewood > All Are Mine > rest for me. Map advantages. Not sure Management Folks or Perfect Pairing will get the tempo they need.

R3----
Withallmyfaith has been in some strong races with Yeung riding most of those with a few average rides, now drops in class w/ the higher weight Purton can finally get on with a perfect draw. Seems a clear best.

Mr Cool the danger from some strong races, but some favours in those. Just the map a concern but probably goes forward from 10. He did the same at Sha Tin 2 starts ago & was good, but the tempo suited, but think this might be slow as well.

Moreiras ride extremely dangerous if handles HV / can settle closer, & Bowman/Ethan rides not hopeless either.

R4----
Justifying resumed 1167lb, possibly fat, but bodyweight at 1150 now might be ready to go 3U, running good time in trials, including behind Beauty Bolt (albeit Justifying was pushed out more there). Moreira on too for this who also trialed him.

Bright Day most likely to win / map horse, probably one to save on or exotics.

Few lightly-raced smokeys at odds whose trials rate solid & could improve significantly off runs with excuses/better map here: 8, 9. Also the 4 great debut but map here looks tricky, think I will take it on.

R5----
Ghorghan can forgive last 3 runs, ratings before that can win this easily if handles Happy Valley 1st time. Should be great odds off excuses.

Armor Golden Eagle rating last time could win this even meeting a few here worse in W, was hands & heels / not pushed out for that win so has more to give (excuses before that, not just a one-off big rating, always showed promise with his sectionals all year as well).

Fantastic Fun probably lacks a bit compared to some of these but has the perfect map, usually a drifter on tote, could nibble there.

Highland Rahy can probably forget these recent 1800 runs, a bit tricky to tell where he's at but could steal this from the front back to preferred distance if can control / track bias, or simply on form from earlier this season / last time he was around this mark.

R6----
No strong opinions here, don't mind Elegant Life or Dan Attack.

R7----
Lucky McQueen excuses last 5~ even when winning, constantly plunged from wide draws & for good reason. Best draw in a while & Moreira on.

Happy Shooter, New Power, even Spirit of Peace are all somewhat interesting.

R8----
Superb Capitalist can genuinely forget his last 6 or 7 runs all excusable for many reasons. He's a HV 1000m horse these days, & lower mark than what he last won off, he would easily win this if he runs to those runs from start of this season.
Hard to know where he's at exactly in terms of form after running bunch of forget 1200/AW/ST races, but for me he is running good enough time in trials that he's still there & can't fault his map either.

Mr Desira next best (forgive last, good Ts, Moreira on, perfect draw).

Central Bank trialing like a rocket, had some market support last time too.

Likewise Winning Champion looks very appealing at 21~ odds right now.

R9----
Honest Witness looks hard to beat, Robot Lucky Star the danger, seems an obvious quinella. I guess Sky Cap could produce a new peak on a 7d backup with good draw.

 

[woof43]

how about O Outlander first race, excellent effort, my top was Winning Diamond, that 3/5 meeting strikes again

 

[woof43]

Better late than ever, been quite busy, here was a very quick summary of how I saw tonight.

R1----
Solar River pass mark resuming after 9months LS, but the recent trial was good time for a C5 horse, might be ready to go 2U with a good draw/map.

Exceed the Wish - was racing great at 1200 with good enough figures, has tried various shorter & longer trips recently to no success but it's pushed his rating down a bunch from last time racing 1200. So back to the right distance, with the weight drop, BP3, & Purton on.

Bingo Babe - 4th run for new stable, excuses previous runs but showing merit with sectionals / trial etc. BP11 + recent excuses should give a good price, TRICKY MAP but could roll forward.

Winning Diamond - down a tone in ratings after racing at longer trips / other excuses lately, harder one to gauge back to 1200 here but BP5/Bowman positives.

Basic Instinct solid too.

R2----
Rosewood Fleetfoot or All Are Mine surely winning this?

All Are Mine got stuck behind fading horse(roarer) & couldn't build momentum in time in sit & sprint, but respect the form before it & the SP.

Rosewood Fleetfoot from same race came wide & splits were huge, winner just had the perfect race shape/trip. Has been threatening for a long time.

Rosewood > All Are Mine > rest for me. Map advantages. Not sure Management Folks or Perfect Pairing will get the tempo they need.

R3----
Withallmyfaith has been in some strong races with Yeung riding most of those with a few average rides, now drops in class w/ the higher weight Purton can finally get on with a perfect draw. Seems a clear best.

Mr Cool the danger from some strong races, but some favours in those. Just the map a concern but probably goes forward from 10. He did the same at Sha Tin 2 starts ago & was good, but the tempo suited, but think this might be slow as well.

Moreiras ride extremely dangerous if handles HV / can settle closer, & Bowman/Ethan rides not hopeless either.

R4----
Justifying resumed 1167lb, possibly fat, but bodyweight at 1150 now might be ready to go 3U, running good time in trials, including behind Beauty Bolt (albeit Justifying was pushed out more there). Moreira on too for this who also trialed him.

Bright Day most likely to win / map horse, probably one to save on or exotics.

Few lightly-raced smokeys at odds whose trials rate solid & could improve significantly off runs with excuses/better map here: 8, 9. Also the 4 great debut but map here looks tricky, think I will take it on.

R5----
Ghorghan can forgive last 3 runs, ratings before that can win this easily if handles Happy Valley 1st time. Should be great odds off excuses.

Armor Golden Eagle rating last time could win this even meeting a few here worse in W, was hands & heels / not pushed out for that win so has more to give (excuses before that, not just a one-off big rating, always showed promise with his sectionals all year as well).

Fantastic Fun probably lacks a bit compared to some of these but has the perfect map, usually a drifter on tote, could nibble there.

Highland Rahy can probably forget these recent 1800 runs, a bit tricky to tell where he's at but could steal this from the front back to preferred distance if can control / track bias, or simply on form from earlier this season / last time he was around this mark.

R6----
No strong opinions here, don't mind Elegant Life or Dan Attack.

R7----
Lucky McQueen excuses last 5~ even when winning, constantly plunged from wide draws & for good reason. Best draw in a while & Moreira on.

Happy Shooter, New Power, even Spirit of Peace are all somewhat interesting.

R8----
Superb Capitalist can genuinely forget his last 6 or 7 runs all excusable for many reasons. He's a HV 1000m horse these days, & lower mark than what he last won off, he would easily win this if he runs to those runs from start of this season.
Hard to know where he's at exactly in terms of form after running bunch of forget 1200/AW/ST races, but for me he is running good enough time in trials that he's still there & can't fault his map either.

Mr Desira next best (forgive last, good Ts, Moreira on, perfect draw).

Central Bank trialing like a rocket, had some market support last time too.

Likewise Winning Champion looks very appealing at 21~ odds right now.

R9----
Honest Witness looks hard to beat, Robot Lucky Star the danger, seems an obvious quinella. I guess Sky Cap could produce a new peak on a 7d backup with good draw.

excellent work r8 and a few other races as well , but that was well spotted and backed

 

[Outlander]

Better late than ever, been quite busy, here was a very quick summary of how I saw tonight.

R1----
Solar River pass mark resuming after 9months LS, but the recent trial was good time for a C5 horse, might be ready to go 2U with a good draw/map.

Exceed the Wish - was racing great at 1200 with good enough figures, has tried various shorter & longer trips recently to no success but it's pushed his rating down a bunch from last time racing 1200. So back to the right distance, with the weight drop, BP3, & Purton on.

Bingo Babe - 4th run for new stable, excuses previous runs but showing merit with sectionals / trial etc. BP11 + recent excuses should give a good price, TRICKY MAP but could roll forward.

Winning Diamond - down a tone in ratings after racing at longer trips / other excuses lately, harder one to gauge back to 1200 here but BP5/Bowman positives.

Basic Instinct solid too.

R2----
Rosewood Fleetfoot or All Are Mine surely winning this?

All Are Mine got stuck behind fading horse(roarer) & couldn't build momentum in time in sit & sprint, but respect the form before it & the SP.

Rosewood Fleetfoot from same race came wide & splits were huge, winner just had the perfect race shape/trip. Has been threatening for a long time.

Rosewood > All Are Mine > rest for me. Map advantages. Not sure Management Folks or Perfect Pairing will get the tempo they need.

R3----
Withallmyfaith has been in some strong races with Yeung riding most of those with a few average rides, now drops in class w/ the higher weight Purton can finally get on with a perfect draw. Seems a clear best.

Mr Cool the danger from some strong races, but some favours in those. Just the map a concern but probably goes forward from 10. He did the same at Sha Tin 2 starts ago & was good, but the tempo suited, but think this might be slow as well.

Moreiras ride extremely dangerous if handles HV / can settle closer, & Bowman/Ethan rides not hopeless either.

R4----
Justifying resumed 1167lb, possibly fat, but bodyweight at 1150 now might be ready to go 3U, running good time in trials, including behind Beauty Bolt (albeit Justifying was pushed out more there). Moreira on too for this who also trialed him.

Bright Day most likely to win / map horse, probably one to save on or exotics.

Few lightly-raced smokeys at odds whose trials rate solid & could improve significantly off runs with excuses/better map here: 8, 9. Also the 4 great debut but map here looks tricky, think I will take it on.

R5----
Ghorghan can forgive last 3 runs, ratings before that can win this easily if handles Happy Valley 1st time. Should be great odds off excuses.

Armor Golden Eagle rating last time could win this even meeting a few here worse in W, was hands & heels / not pushed out for that win so has more to give (excuses before that, not just a one-off big rating, always showed promise with his sectionals all year as well).

Fantastic Fun probably lacks a bit compared to some of these but has the perfect map, usually a drifter on tote, could nibble there.

Highland Rahy can probably forget these recent 1800 runs, a bit tricky to tell where he's at but could steal this from the front back to preferred distance if can control / track bias, or simply on form from earlier this season / last time he was around this mark.

R6----
No strong opinions here, don't mind Elegant Life or Dan Attack.

R7----
Lucky McQueen excuses last 5~ even when winning, constantly plunged from wide draws & for good reason. Best draw in a while & Moreira on.

Happy Shooter, New Power, even Spirit of Peace are all somewhat interesting.

R8----
Superb Capitalist can genuinely forget his last 6 or 7 runs all excusable for many reasons. He's a HV 1000m horse these days, & lower mark than what he last won off, he would easily win this if he runs to those runs from start of this season.
Hard to know where he's at exactly in terms of form after running bunch of forget 1200/AW/ST races, but for me he is running good enough time in trials that he's still there & can't fault his map either.

Mr Desira next best (forgive last, good Ts, Moreira on, perfect draw).

Central Bank trialing like a rocket, had some market support last time too.

Likewise Winning Champion looks very appealing at 21~ odds right now.

R9----
Honest Witness looks hard to beat, Robot Lucky Star the danger, seems an obvious quinella. I guess Sky Cap could produce a new peak on a 7d backup with good draw.

All in all superb observations throughout well done D desimal . Makes me realise how badly I read the races even after 5 years studying HK

 

[woof43]

All in all superb observations throughout well done D desimal . Makes me realise how badly I read the races even after 5 years studying HK

I'm not sure it's all about reading races correctly or incorrectly, what it show to me is the many pieces in the puzzle, we may generally have the same results data, I focus on creating times, I generally use AI to find all the widths thru turns etc to add in too my data and create time predictions, but i can see there are many pieces of the puzzle i don't factor D desimal highlighted that thru his summations, Another instance is why i mentioned race 1 my track speed are generally created thru algorithms which are never 100% complete , but I also use a few other unrelated cross hairs to see the variation and that race 1 winner the race on the 3/5 has been contentious with the different variations one of my other cross hairs noted to give that run a lot more variance then the others and once O Outlander provide his data that was sort of confirmation and then the rest was history I guess, but it shows a sole person generally can do only so much in completing the puzzle

 

[desimal]

All in all superb observations throughout well done @ D desimal . Makes me realise how badly I read the races even after 5 years studying HK

I do have far too much free time but yeah I usually look pretty far back on form.

Superb Capitalist you had to go back to Sept/Oct to see the last time he raced HV1000, he's now 3-1/5 course & distance.

Highland Rahy was another who ran well (2nd) at big odds I noted, that was another case of dropping back in distance and looking at form from 6 months ago as well + was sliding down in rating.

Generally we think most recent form is most important, but with the handicapping style of HK it almost encourages you to look for those horses with a string of bad form on paper because they're actually sneaking down in ratings, often racing at the wrong track/distance or excuses/bad draws, and sometimes it takes a horse 5-10 runs before it gets back to its 'ideal win conditions' so to speak - that being not only preferred track/distance but right race / map and ideally on top back to a certain rating.

Anyway what I'm saying is pretty general stuff you already know all this. But sometimes thinking back to basics can be helpful.

But yes another solid night, I got Justifying horribly wrong - but the 8 and 9 in that race ran 3rd and 4th at big odds so I'm happy with those. Bingo Babe almost delivered in the first at big odds. But then a bunch of other winners after. Race 9 was messy with some drifters winning, I really need to stop playing the 1-2 favourite quinnellas - it's been horribly unprofitable for me.

I'll try contribute some thoughts like that here before every Wednesday meeting.

 

[woof43]

I do have far too much free time but yeah I usually look pretty far back on form.

Superb Capitalist you had to go back to Sept/Oct to see the last time he raced HV1000, he's now 3-1/5 course & distance.

Highland Rahy was another who ran well (2nd) at big odds I noted, that was another case of dropping back in distance and looking at form from 6 months ago as well + was sliding down in rating.

Generally we think most recent form is most important, but with the handicapping style of HK it almost encourages you to look for those horses with a string of bad form on paper because they're actually sneaking down in ratings, often racing at the wrong track/distance or excuses/bad draws, and sometimes it takes a horse 5-10 runs before it gets back to its 'ideal win conditions' so to speak - that being not only preferred track/distance but right race / map and ideally on top back to a certain rating.

Anyway what I'm saying is pretty general stuff you already know all this. But sometimes thinking back to basics can be helpful.

But yes another solid night, I got Justifying horribly wrong - but the 8 and 9 in that race ran 3rd and 4th at big odds so I'm happy with those. Bingo Babe almost delivered in the first at big odds. But then a bunch of other winners after. Race 9 was messy with some drifters winning, I really need to stop playing the 1-2 favourite quinnellas - it's been horribly unprofitable for me.

I'll try contribute some thoughts like that here before every Wednesday meeting.

I'm impressed with your read of races, like there was a bit of bias in the meeting I thought and when that's taken into account it was a pretty good effort. I looked at my data for superb capitalist, like you said it was all there in plain sight, my algorithm although it looks at the LTD , my baseline will be weighted to recency, but the upper bounds on my monte Carlo sim look at the 56.477 and 56.734 as it upper now

 

[woof43]

and here is Horsepower, makes me feel more stupid now just looking at them both, and their odds, I actually liked Candlelight Dinner but i think it was impacted by bias

 

[Outlander]

I have crude methods that penalise horses for running below form, last 1 , 2 or 3 stats with varying criteria, problem is when falling in the HKR like Superb Capatalist or Victor The Winner last week they basically guarantee they will have the running below form deduction applied to efforts 5-10 runs ago.
I decay for runs ago but the HKR ratings drop so quickly that if I don’t apply some penalty for being out of form i will get all the old deteriorating horses at the top of my rankings.
What I did notice is that both Superb Capitalist and Victor The Winner had HF flags on my ratings sheet, this means they have showed after efficiency of run is taken into account that they could have placed much better on their most recent run, in the case of SC it calculated could have finished 4th lto and VTW could have placed 2nd.
Under these circumstances it’s maybe contradictory to penalise these horse for being out of form , maybe I stop penalising such horse moving forward they are not very common and see if I can rate such horse better in today rankings.
Both these horses had runs 5-10 back that made them standout chances on any ratings, but this is the case with many horses in free fall in the official handicap, it’s identifying the ones that can bounce back that is the difficult task.

 

[Outlander]

beginning to think you can rate every aspect of every horse and even if you got most things right , it still would pale into insignificance compared with the green and brown lamp show in the last minute.

 

[desimal]

it’s identifying the ones that can bounce back that is the difficult task.

Flagging those that return to their last win rating, or those returning to their preferred track/distance can help. I think your spreadsheet does sometimes flag this stuff IIRC. Also not penalising runs at different distances to their current race could help if applied correctly.

it still would pale into insignificance compared with the green and brown lamp show in the last minute.

Well factoring in SP is always an option, even as a simple flag. E.g. you have a horse rated low, but its last start SP was say $3, it might be worth flagging that you're possibly missing something.

I wouldn't know how to apply SP to pricing (especially as every race is different strength/setup), but its something I at least take note of at times. Like you're saying, the market knows things.