• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Hong Kong Speed Figures

A 2m hdl wouldn't have been my sort of race to do any sectional testing O Outlander , i would have gone all weather between 6f to a mile, that said it all looks complicated enough to have some value.
Thanks for that input.

Just to add to that O Outlander why not use the wolves race i put up with your numbers ?
 
Last edited:
Outlander said:
chose a Newcastle race at random to have a look

So what's this telling me assuming its not a load of rubbish (it could be because i tried it on one race)
Looks like the winner could have gone min 0.60seconds faster if ran more efficiently(because i don't have pars i set the most efficient horse in race Balranald at 0 (100% efficiency)).
looking at the adjusted rank the only difference is that the 3rd horse maybe could have been 2nd.
Maybe this could give you more information on a race using free info, maybe not, no idea not tested it properly.
The sheet i used is attached just in case you want to play with other races, i don't have the interest in looking at UK
Click to expand...
I suppose O Outlander this would give you bigger gaps between the horses and a more accurate rating of the difference in ability. That is if nothing else.

As you say need standards and a lot of work to test how it goes.

For T tacker these are the race winning times and Hong Kong rating of winners and an adjustment as if they carried 135 pounds to give an idea of class. For turf traces up to last weekend. Although O Outlander says, most races are run fast there are still plenty of differences in finish time that are not only accounted for by ability. It will only take small variations in sped to generate inefficiency. Still working on it though!

1761994984154.png
 
tacker said:
A 2m hdl wouldn't have been my sort of race to do any sectional testing O Outlander , i would have gone all weather between 6f to a mile, that said it all looks complicated enough to have some value.
Thanks for that input.

Just to add to that O Outlander why not use the wolves race i put up with your numbers ?
Click to expand...

The Hare said:
I suppose O Outlander this would give you bigger gaps between the horses and a more accurate rating of the difference in ability. That is if nothing else.

As you say need standards and a lot of work to test how it goes.

For T tacker these are the race winning times and Hong Kong rating of winners and an adjustment as if they carried 135 pounds to give an idea of class. For turf traces up to last weekend. Although O Outlander says, most races are run fast there are still plenty of differences in finish time that are not only accounted for by ability. It will only take small variations in sped to generate inefficiency. Still working on it though!

View attachment 161619
Click to expand...
Not going to lie, had zero idea it was a 2m hurdle race, I just picked at random thinking Newcastle would be an AW meetings, didn’t look at the distance or anything. T tacker will do the full meeting for that Wolves race when I get some time to see if it gives any enlightenment at all. I have my doubts as we don’t have pars, but maybe some use in seeing if any could have finished closer. Unsure.
 
Outlander said:
Not going to lie, had zero idea it was a 2m hurdle race, I just picked at random thinking Newcastle would be an AW meetings, didn’t look at the distance or anything. T tacker will do the full meeting for that Wolves race when I get some time to see if it gives any enlightenment at all. I have my doubts as we don’t have pars, but maybe some use in seeing if any could have finished closer. Unsure.
Click to expand...
There were 3 races over 6f though one of them a 2yr old race.
 
All i can see at first glance O Outlander is a confirmation that the slow early pace in the MASIS ANGEL race ruined any chance of any of them being able to "uplift" to a reasonable standard for the grade.
I need a lot more time to get my head around any of this but i suppose we're looking for outliers ?
 
tacker said:
All i can see at first glance O Outlander is a confirmation that the slow early pace in the MASIS ANGEL race ruined any chance of any of them being able to "uplift" to a reasonable standard for the grade.
I need a lot more time to get my head around any of this but i suppose we're looking for outliers ?
Click to expand...
Can’t really find anything myself, My Boy Jack potentially finishing a bit closer to the winner in his race, a bigger time adjustment than horses around him, but this is just using bare times instead of pars and ratings so no idea if a 0.15 second uplift is worthy of consideration using this method or not, limited examples.
 
Outlander said:
Can’t really find anything myself, My Boy Jack potentially finishing a bit closer to the winner in his race, a bigger time adjustment than horses around him, but this is just using bare times instead of pars and ratings so no idea if a 0.15 second uplift is worthy of consideration using this method or not, limited examples.
Click to expand...
Doesn’t TPD help with that and the other site whose name escapes me atm ?
 
tacker said:
All i can see at first glance O Outlander is a confirmation that the slow early pace in the MASIS ANGEL race ruined any chance of any of them being able to "uplift" to a reasonable standard for the grade.
I need a lot more time to get my head around any of this but i suppose we're looking for outliers ?
Click to expand...
Can also see that grok as misaligned the MARIS ANGEL race so will need to do that again when my laptop battery charges
 
I changed a lot of things in my approach due to the poor results. R2 SONIC PURSUIT has not race since a long time ...
R2R5R7R9
SONIC PURSUITBROWNNEEDSFURTHERDANCING CLASSICSAURORA LADY
DAN ATTACKARGENTO OCEANAURORA PATCHCOLOURFUL KING
AMAZING KIDAUTUMN VIBESLUCKY PLANETGUSTOSISIMO
ALL'S WELLEXCEED THE WISHSPORTS LEGENDKAHOLO ANGEL
QUICK CONTRIBUTIONSIGHT DREAMERGUMMY GUMMYMASTEROFMYUNIVERSE
MEOWTHLUCKY MCQUEENROMANTIC SONPACKING BOLE
SECOND TO NONESUPER PACETHE ALL OUTRED ELEGANCE
SNOWTHORNSMART ENGINEERGOLDEN EMPIRESELF IMPROVEMENT
WITH A SMILEWINNING DATAHAYDAYSTELLAR EXPRESS
JUICY DRAGONEVERSTARBRAVE STARSUPERB CAPITALIST
DENFIELDWINNING CIGARSYMBOL OF STRENGTHTELECOM FIGHTERS
GOOD FORTUNEWIN METHODREFUSETOBEENGLISHYOUTHFUL SPIRITS
 
Outlander said:
Help with what ?, if you talking about pars or ratings I wouldn’t give their pars a second glance.
Click to expand...
I have little idea whether or not TPD is even close to being accurate or not but unless there's something on offer that is superior then i've no alternative but to take it as gospel.
My interest in sectionals is derived from reading form and recognising the anomalies that crop up and distort the logic.
Official ratings and the final times ought to be something that we might be able to rely on but because we see the sectionals now it has become clear they don't and like we've discussed many times O Outlander it is down to the early pace, whether this be too fast or more likely too slow.
If we take the two races mentioned from the wolves meeting and repeat the points already made those two races undermine the "form" and if trying to put numbers to the final times are to mean anything then we need to find some logic behind them.



A cl5 race & cl6 with ratings to match but the final times don't work out as we might think, this is purely down to the early pace of the cl5 race being too slow as demonstrated by the numbers.

At the end of the day as markfinn markfinn says it needs to go somewhere, while it is fairly easy to take the numbers into account from a form point of view that won't help if you want the numbers to tell you where to go, hopefully something can emerge but maybe we're on the wrong thread.
 
tacker said:
Yes! very much so but is it something that can be used going forward ? I'm unsure or doubtful.
Click to expand...
Yes me too, I would need to test anything I would do on a whole seasons results to see it it made any sense, not something you can do with U.K. racing unless you have £100s a month to waste on data, hence why I don’t bother.
 
Results and card for Wednesday at Happy Valley again.
 

Attachments

  • 251105.xlsx
    149.3 KB · Views: 0
  • HK Results25.xlsx
    265.8 KB · Views: 2
Outlander said:
Oui, moi aussi. Il faudrait que je teste tout ce que je ferais sur les résultats d'une saison entière pour voir si cela avait un sens, ce qui n'est pas possible avec les courses britanniques à moins d'avoir des centaines de livres sterling par mois à gaspiller en données, c'est pourquoi je ne m'en préoccupe pas.
Click to expand...

La Cressonnière said:
I changed a lot of things in my approach due to the poor results. R2 SONIC PURSUIT has not race since a long time ...
R2R5R7R9
SONIC PURSUITBROWNNEEDSFURTHERDANCING CLASSICSAURORA LADY
DAN ATTACKARGENTO OCEANAURORA PATCHCOLOURFUL KING
AMAZING KIDAUTUMN VIBESLUCKY PLANETGUSTOSISIMO
ALL'S WELLEXCEED THE WISHSPORTS LEGENDKAHOLO ANGEL
QUICK CONTRIBUTIONSIGHT DREAMERGUMMY GUMMYMASTEROFMYUNIVERSE
MEOWTHLUCKY MCQUEENROMANTIC SONPACKING BOLE
SECOND TO NONESUPER PACETHE ALL OUTRED ELEGANCE
SNOWTHORNSMART ENGINEERGOLDEN EMPIRESELF IMPROVEMENT
WITH A SMILEWINNING DATAHAYDAYSTELLAR EXPRESS
JUICY DRAGONEVERSTARBRAVE STARSUPERB CAPITALIST
DENFIELDWINNING CIGARSYMBOL OF STRENGTHTELECOM FIGHTERS
GOOD FORTUNEWIN METHODREFUSETOBEENGLISHYOUTHFUL SPIRITS
Click to expand...
Better ...
R2 Trio and Quinella W in 5. Quinella P in 2. Selection 2 winner
R5 TOP3 are 1st 3rd 4th. Selection 2 winner
R8(R7) Selection 2 Winner
R9 i did not note Packing Bole was replace by STORM RIDER. After change selection is TOP3. Selection 1 = Winner
 
Hi,
Here is what I’m trying to do.
XGBOOST MODEL
Based on the results from HK Happy Valley – September 2024.
A total of 3,766 performances were used.
Race distances included: 1000m, 1200m, 1650m.

The objective of the model is to predict which horse can finish in the top three, using the features from the Outlander dataset as well as additional variables, which we will discuss later.

The model’s metrics at Happy Valley are strong.
I carried out an initial test (TEST SET) on the races held at Happy Valley since September 10th, 2025 — a total of 21 races.
The model suggested 31 bets to place (prediction output > 0.45).
26 were successful, meaning the horses finished in the top three → ROI: 199%.
A file containing these results and the corresponding payouts is attached.
 

Attachments

  • GAIN_PREV.xlsx
    12 KB · Views: 4
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top