Hong Kong Speed Figures

[The Hare]

Excellent stuff, a very young crowd as well , might tempt them back but problem then it is only downhill after that for their excitement and ability level!

Does anyone know what KYR weight was for this race? Big boost for Hong Kong racing. If only UK racing had the cash on offer to match this.

 

[La Cressonnière]

SHA TIN 2025/10/19

R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10
FUN TOGETHER	BLAZING WUKONG	KING ALLOY	BEAUTY JOY	INFINITE RESOLVE	RIDING TOGETHER	YUEN LONG ELITE
AUTUMN VIBES	COME FAST FAY FAY	PATCH OF TIME	HAPPY TOGETHER	PATCH OF STARS	EVERYONE'S STAR	BEAUTY BOLT
THE GOLDEN KNIGHT	RAINBOW SEVEN	PACKING PHOENIX	COPARTNER PRANCE	SKY JOY	OUTGATE	MORGAN SUCCESS
RAGING RAPIDS	AEROINVINCIBLE	PEJIBAYE	MY WISH	HEALTHY HEALTHY	HAROLD WIN	MASTER TRILLION
LUCKY MAN	VICTORY CHAMPION	PROUD BOX	RED LION	STAR RISE	GRACIOUS EXPRESS	MISTER DAPPER
THE AUSPICIOUS	AUDACIOUS PURSUIT	TOP TO SKY	VICTOR THE WINNER	CHATEAUNEUF	STAR MAC	MAX QUE
BLAZING BEAM	STRANGE ALERT	SAVVY WARRIOR	MOMENTS IN TIME	SAVVY BRILLIANT	FLYING FORTRESS	POPE CODY
RUN RUN SMART	SMART FAT CAT	GLORIOUS KINGDOM	CAP FERRAT	COPARTNER FLEET	THOUSAND SPIRIT	FORTUNE BOY
SUPER LOVE	MULTIDUTCH	AEROVOLANIC	BEAUTY ETERNAL	STAR SATYR	SMART AVENUE	I CAN
CALIFORNIA MOXIE	LUCKY SAM GOR	EMBLAZON	STRAIGHT ARRON	LIGHT YEARS GLORY	BRILLIANT EXPRESS	SPIRIT OF PEACE
CARRYON SMILING	TIME TO FIRE	KA YING GLORY	GALAXY PATCH	WOLF COMING	NEARLY FINE	CALIFORNIA WAVES
WE CAN PARTY	GOR GOR	GOOD CHAP	ENSUED		GHORGAN	SKY VINO
ROMANTIC PARTY	ALL ROUND WINNER		VOYAGE BUBBLE		MASK RIDER	WINNING GOLD
RATTAN GALAXY	COLOURFUL WINNER		SWORD POINT		KINGDOM OF RICHES	AWESOME FLUKE

 

[La Cressonnière]

SHA TIN 2025/10/19

R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10
FUN TOGETHER	BLAZING WUKONG	KING ALLOY	BEAUTY JOY	INFINITE RESOLVE	RIDING TOGETHER	YUEN LONG ELITE
AUTUMN VIBES	COME FAST FAY FAY	PATCH OF TIME	HAPPY TOGETHER	PATCH OF STARS	EVERYONE'S STAR	BEAUTY BOLT
THE GOLDEN KNIGHT	RAINBOW SEVEN	PACKING PHOENIX	COPARTNER PRANCE	SKY JOY	OUTGATE	MORGAN SUCCESS
RAGING RAPIDS	AEROINVINCIBLE	PEJIBAYE	MY WISH	HEALTHY HEALTHY	HAROLD WIN	MASTER TRILLION
LUCKY MAN	VICTORY CHAMPION	PROUD BOX	RED LION	STAR RISE	GRACIOUS EXPRESS	MISTER DAPPER
THE AUSPICIOUS	AUDACIOUS PURSUIT	TOP TO SKY	VICTOR THE WINNER	CHATEAUNEUF	STAR MAC	MAX QUE
BLAZING BEAM	STRANGE ALERT	SAVVY WARRIOR	MOMENTS IN TIME	SAVVY BRILLIANT	FLYING FORTRESS	POPE CODY
RUN RUN SMART	SMART FAT CAT	GLORIOUS KINGDOM	CAP FERRAT	COPARTNER FLEET	THOUSAND SPIRIT	FORTUNE BOY
SUPER LOVE	MULTIDUTCH	AEROVOLANIC	BEAUTY ETERNAL	STAR SATYR	SMART AVENUE	I CAN
CALIFORNIA MOXIE	LUCKY SAM GOR	EMBLAZON	STRAIGHT ARRON	LIGHT YEARS GLORY	BRILLIANT EXPRESS	SPIRIT OF PEACE
CARRYON SMILING	TIME TO FIRE	KA YING GLORY	GALAXY PATCH	WOLF COMING	NEARLY FINE	CALIFORNIA WAVES
WE CAN PARTY	GOR GOR	GOOD CHAP	ENSUED		GHORGAN	SKY VINO
ROMANTIC PARTY	ALL ROUND WINNER		VOYAGE BUBBLE		MASK RIDER	WINNING GOLD
RATTAN GALAXY	COLOURFUL WINNER		SWORD POINT		KINGDOM OF RICHES	AWESOME FLUKE

R7 Trio in 4 = 72/1 => Remember CAP FERRAT ...
R8 Trio in 3 = 11/1
R9 First 4 in 5 = 296/1

 

[The Hare]

R7 Trio in 4 = 72/1 => Remember CAP FERRAT ...
R8 Trio in 3 = 11/1
R9 First 4 in 5 = 296/1

Excellent La Cressonnière

 

[The Hare]

So card and results for yesterday.

After the glory of Ka Ying Rising a Group 2 handicap in Hong Kong yesterday, loads out of the handicap with Voyage Bubbles on such a high mark. My Wish completes successive Group handicap victories from low weights. Be interesting to see how he can compete off level weights.

 

[La Cressonnière]

Hello,
A lot of work based on data O Outlander that are … better than mine. I’ve developed a specific model for Happy Valley — it predicts which horses can finish in the top 3, and with what probability. In terms of metrics, it looks very competitive.
I only made a forecast for race 9 due to lack of time.
Case 1: LTO-based (using variables from the last race, or the most similar one if there was interference, etc.).
Case 2: Based on variables from the last 5 races, with a weighting between older and more recent ones.
Ideally, the whole meeting should have been tested, but here are the results:

CASE 1	% CONFIDENCE	CASE 2	% CONFIDENCE
KING LOTUS	0.9889488220214844	KING LOTUS	0.9812676906585693
GOKO WIN	0.8742696642875671	MIGHTY COMMANDER	0.8936896324157715
TRIUMPHANT MORE	0.708412766456604	GOKO WIN	0.8742696642875671
SUPERB BOY	0.46145299077033997	AKASHVANI	0.6100677251815796
AKASHVANI	0.41856130957603455	BUNDLE OF CHARM	0.4503883719444275
MIGHTY COMMANDER	0.41856130957603455	LUCKY EIGHT	0.35145246982574463
LUCKY EIGHT	0.3511035144329071	SOVEREIGN FUND	0.1258981078863144
BUNDLE OF CHARM	0.16361567378044128	STORMING DRAGON	0.05120383948087692
SOVEREIGN FUND	0.15183015167713165	SUPERB BOY	0.04436202347278595
STORMING DRAGON	0.05624093860387802	TRIUMPHANT MORE	0.03337986022233963
MASTER CHAMPION	0.010431122966110706	MASTER CHAMPION	0.01028797123581171

 

[The Hare]

Hello,
A lot of work based on data O Outlander that are … better than mine. I’ve developed a specific model for Happy Valley — it predicts which horses can finish in the top 3, and with what probability. In terms of metrics, it looks very competitive.
I only made a forecast for race 9 due to lack of time.
Case 1: LTO-based (using variables from the last race, or the most similar one if there was interference, etc.).
Case 2: Based on variables from the last 5 races, with a weighting between older and more recent ones.
Ideally, the whole meeting should have been tested, but here are the results:

CASE 1	% CONFIDENCE	CASE 2	% CONFIDENCE
KING LOTUS	0.9889488220214844	KING LOTUS	0.9812676906585693
GOKO WIN	0.8742696642875671	MIGHTY COMMANDER	0.8936896324157715
TRIUMPHANT MORE	0.708412766456604	GOKO WIN	0.8742696642875671
SUPERB BOY	0.46145299077033997	AKASHVANI	0.6100677251815796
AKASHVANI	0.41856130957603455	BUNDLE OF CHARM	0.4503883719444275
MIGHTY COMMANDER	0.41856130957603455	LUCKY EIGHT	0.35145246982574463
LUCKY EIGHT	0.3511035144329071	SOVEREIGN FUND	0.1258981078863144
BUNDLE OF CHARM	0.16361567378044128	STORMING DRAGON	0.05120383948087692
SOVEREIGN FUND	0.15183015167713165	SUPERB BOY	0.04436202347278595
STORMING DRAGON	0.05624093860387802	TRIUMPHANT MORE	0.03337986022233963
MASTER CHAMPION	0.010431122966110706	MASTER CHAMPION	0.01028797123581171

Excellent work La Cressonnière see how it goes tomorrow.

 

[Outlander]

Joyous stuff from Maureen Haggis on HK superstar Zac Putron, if only everyone in the world was a little more like her.

https://x.com/racingtv/status/1981058774379938227?s=61&t=uVUCHRUwJp-WQF_KZ2qWcA

Purton reckons she was on the drink

https://x.com/racing/status/1981158014771253586?s=61&t=uVUCHRUwJp-WQF_KZ2qWcA

 

[The Hare]

Joyous stuff from Maureen Haggis on HK superstar Zac Putron, if only everyone in the world was a little more like her.

https://x.com/racingtv/status/1981058774379938227?s=61&t=uVUCHRUwJp-WQF_KZ2qWcA

Purton reckons she was on the drink

https://x.com/racing/status/1981158014771253586?s=61&t=uVUCHRUwJp-WQF_KZ2qWcA

Maureen and William having a bad week after his comments on Oisin Murphy on Sunday. Never known them be like that before.

How good would Ka Ying Rising be with a good jockey on!!

 

[Outlander]

Maureen and William having a bad week after his comments on Oisin Murphy on Sunday. Never known them be like that before.

How good would Ka Ying Rising be with a good jockey on!!

Sometimes though I can’t work out why Purton is good, he is very left handed, doesn’t look overly strong, so many races where he is explaining to stewards why it’s gone wrong for him.
When I watched Johnny Murtagh or Mick Kinane, I knew I was looking at a world class jockey , I don’t see that with Purton but look at the results.

 

[The Hare]

Some randomness. This is from 2021-22 season to now, horses that were ridden by Purton today compared to the rider in their previous race. Interestingly the ones ridden by Purton last time are lower rated on 54.5% times this run.

Apart from the claimers, only Moreira, McDonald and Badel do better over a decent number of runs.

 

[Outlander]

I have noticed Purton is exceptional at evaluating horse, in videos he is rarely wrong with what he says either negatively or positively about his mounts, I imagine he has someone who helps him book the best rides but even by himself is a shrewd judge.
How much of his dominance can be attributed to his brilliance and how much to the quality of his mounts I think his mounts average something like 2.3 rank in the market, that’s astonishing in 12-14 runner handicaps which make up >95% on HK races.
To my eye he is no better than Hewitson for example but the results say light years ahead.

 

[Outlander]

Brookeborough if you establish each sectional standard to 100% it means that you would end up upgrading everything, because its implausible that a horse will run to par for every section. However with your method,

S1 - 95.06
S2 - 99.91
S3 - 103.35

This gives Hoss a STDEV.S of 4.16. If your numbers are in B4:B6 just enter =STDEV.S(B4:B6) and the number will pop up.

If you have 3 sections, the square root of this (SQRT) is 1.73, so the 4.16 / 1.73 to give 2.40.
The 2.4 is added to 100 to give 102.4 (102.4%) and the time of the horse is divided by that figure to increase its time. So you would be saying he ran the race in 69.69 / 1.024 = 68.06.

If all your S1-S3 sections amount to 100, you'd end up with a figure of zero and nothing to take away from the 102.4, hence why I prefer to set a general standard for efficient running.

The STDEV.P figure for all my efficient runners at Happy Valley over 6 furlongs at is 1.19 and I split Hoss a bit differently to you, as I am using 5 sectionals and got a figure of 1.75, so his 0.59 (1.75 - 1.19) is added to the 100 and I therefore say his efficient running time is 69.69 / 1.0059 = 69.28 which would be around a 6lb upgrade. If that figure is a minus we deem the horse has run efficiently and should be left with the figure he earned.

I'm also not sure if your figures are taking account of the percentage of the horse total time. Your three percentages for each horse should add up to 300 for this exercise, because you are dividing the time taken for the section per furlong by the time taken by the race per furlong.

So if in a 6 furlong race a horse runs in 66 seconds (three sections of 23, 21 and 22 seconds, the first section is (66/6)/(23/2). That is a 95.7 efficiency and that could look poor on its own, but if you've established that all the winning horses and those close up are all running to those fractions, you should regard that as a good figure. What I think you might be doing is establishing the performance of the horse relative to a par section instead.

View attachment 129815

Thinking out loud here, great post quoted from AustinDillon75 a couple of years ago on this thread.
At the time although I didn’t claim to understand the maths behind it I thought there was something very interesting in the idea he put forward of essentially an efficiency uplift for each horse. Although the i felt the maths and idea were top notch, in practice maybe it was too reliant on the pars and it didn’t pan out when I applied in to my whole database of HK results.

Recently I have created ratings for each section S1NW-S6NW, they initially are no weight ratings little bit like Mordin or Beyer, I take into account final time in my section ratings so they can be directly compared with each other and the overall speed figure SSNW.

Although ARAZI91 has confirmed not mathematically robust , I don’t think they are too bad and naively I thought I could look at them and know which horse could have won and would be helpful.

I know sections can’t be taken in isolation as a guide to the merit of horses performance but if they accounted for overall time in their composition I thought maybe it would give a useful picture.

Now I think even with overall time taken into consideration a section rating can not be used in the same way as an overall time rating.

In the example below race won by Flowing Riches his speed figure is 85.23.
The horse I want to focus on is Dr Golden General , he has finished better than most and even accounting for overall time has a final 400m rating of 86.72.
So my first thought could Dr Golden General have beaten Flowing Riches.
I watched the race and the answer is no, it’s not a fair comparison, he was off the back and finished ok and would never have got close to the winner.



Was thinking of AustinDillon75 idea of efficiency, could I use his method on my figures, no horse really runs 100% efficiently, they run with varying degrees of efficiency.
I used his formula above and calculated an EFFuplift for each horse to apply to it‘s overall speed figure (SSNW).
Dr Golden General did have the highest efficiency uplift of 4.7125 but that wouldn’t entitle him to get within 3 pts of the winner.
A final efficiency adjusted figure of 82.25 compared with 85.60 for Flowing Riches.

Think this might be the way forward efficiency uplift instead of sectional uplifts, certainly interested me enough to do more research and test with AustinDillon75 idea.

Any thoughts welcome.

 

[The Hare]

Now I think even with overall time taken into consideration a section rating can not be used in the same way as an overall time rating.

In the example below race won by Flowing Riches his speed figure is 85.23.
The horse I want to focus on is Dr Golden General , he has finished better than most and even accounting for overall time has a final 400m rating of 86.72.
So my first thought could Dr Golden General have beaten Flowing Riches.
I watched the race and the answer is no, it’s not a fair comparison, he was off the back and finished ok and would never have got close to the winner.

I used his formula above and calculated an EFFuplift for each horse to apply to it‘s overall speed figure (SSNW).
Dr Golden General did have the highest efficiency uplift of 4.7125 but that wouldn’t entitle him to get within 3 pts of the winner.
A final efficiency adjusted figure of 82.25 compared with 85.60 for Flowing Riches.

Think this might be the way forward efficiency uplift instead of sectional uplifts, certainly interested me enough to do more research and test with AustinDillon75 idea.

Any thoughts welcome.

An excellent post O Outlander . I really need to get a look at the se sectionals. Your idea seems correct. Last season I was experimenting with sectional uplifts. Mr Rowland was taking his uplifts as the highest from any point to the finish I believe, rather than individual sections. I will get back to looking at sectionals soon!

 

[The Hare]

Card for Sunday with another handicap Group 2 and results from Wednesday.

 

[La Cressonnière]

SHA 26/10/2025

BULL ATTITUDE	DAZZLING FIT	SKY HEART	FAST NETWORK	ONLY U
SUPREME MASTERMIND	TOP DRAGON	STEPS AHEAD	TOMODACHI KOKOROE	DECISION LINK
INNO SUPER	NEW FUTURE FOLKS	HONG LOK GOLF	PACKING HERMOD	SILVER UP
THE HEIR	SIX PACK	MARKWIN	WUNDERBAR	REZEKI
ABSOLUTE AWAKENED	DRAGON JOY	HUGE WAVE	MUGEN	VOLCANIC SPARK
TIME TO FIRE	ANODE	BUNDLE AWARD	DIVANO	BRIGHT DAY
ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT	KA YING ATTACK	TALENTS AMBITION	HELIOS EXPRESS	BEAUTY GLORY
SERANGOON	ARMOUR WAR EAGLE	MASSIVE SOVEREIGN	INVINCIBLE SAGE	MR COOL
PEARL OF PANG'S	LO PAN SPIRIT	JOHANNES BRAHMS	BOTTOMUPTOGETHER	GROOVY FEELING
BRIGHT INHERITANCE	ONE MAN SHOW	RUBYLOT	RAGING BLIZZARD	WORLD HERO
SPLENDID FORCE	SUPERB KID	STUNNING PEACH	MAGIC CONTROL	APPEALING CITY
JOLLY JUMPER	IGOR STRAVINSKY	MICKLEY	INVINCIBLE SHIELD	AMAZING FUN
GOOD GOOD	ENDEARED	VOYAGE SAMURAI	BEAUTY WAVES	CALIFORNIA BANNER
SOARING BRONCO	KA YING SUPERB		LUCKY WITH YOU	GALLANT EPOCH

 

[pawras]

Now we are into the Hong Kong racing season I'm having a look at the 845 Sha Tin - Premier Bowl (Group 2 Handicap) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+ : Prize Money £308230.45

I have current fav Helios Express clear top on my card , then Packing Hermod 2nd top, so I will be going with those but more weighted towards the fav.

Cross referencing the race against all the other HK pattern races, plus those in UK/IRE/FR I get one race , where any runners from the last renewal are competing today and shows any worthwhile stats. That is the Sha Tin Queens Silver Jubilee Cup Flat Stakes 7f Group1 in Feb, since 2017 , 20 runners from that have gone on to the following Premier Bowl and 4 (20%) have won and 9 (45%) have won or placed. The runners today who were in that race and their finishing positions are :-
Helios Express (AUS)(2), Invincible Sage (AUS)(7), Mugen (AUS)(9)

 

[pawras]

Now we are into the Hong Kong racing season I'm having a look at the 845 Sha Tin - Premier Bowl (Group 2 Handicap) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+ : Prize Money £308230.45

I have current fav Helios Express clear top on my card , then Packing Hermod 2nd top, so I will be going with those but more weighted towards the fav.

Cross referencing the race against all the other HK pattern races, plus those in UK/IRE/FR I get one race , where any runners from the last renewal are competing today and shows any worthwhile stats. That is the Sha Tin Queens Silver Jubilee Cup Flat Stakes 7f Group1 in Feb, since 2017 , 20 runners from that have gone on to the following Premier Bowl and 4 (20%) have won and 9 (45%) have won or placed. The runners today who were in that race and their finishing positions are :-
Helios Express (AUS)(2), Invincible Sage (AUS)(7), Mugen (AUS)(9)

Blurgh the closest I got was 3rd, the winner Tomodachi Kokoroe was 5th on my online card, the first 3 home were all in my top 5 out of 14 runners

 

[The Hare]

Blurgh the closest I got was 3rd, the winner Tomodachi Kokoroe was 5th on my online card, the first 3 home were all in my top 5 out of 14 runners

Good effort pawras . Have finally registered for your site, hadn't realised you cover all the Hong Kong races so will take a good look soon.

Results were not great for my ratings today, 3 newcomers but a couple of 2nd top maybe best I could do!

 

[The Hare]

Today's results added.

3 newcomers win today, one heavily gambled and runs very wide at last bend and still won comfortably, Ever Luck race 2. The Group 2 as mentioned in previous posts was won by Tomodachi Kokoroe, here is the form for the 7 year old that has exceded everything before in last 2 runs for no obvious reason than addition of blinkers? Any ideas?

Racing in Thursday this week.