Hong Kong Speed Figures

[woof43]

Again not paying as much attention at the moment but noticed horses that come out of that race 1 in HV 3/6/26 that was anomalously fast compared to the rest of the card that we discussed The Way We Win , Telecom Power and Wah May Wai Wai all bombed badly , just can’t trust these races for whatever reason they are a false flag.

I generally will re-time races that show some anomaly to be sure, normally with greyhounds there could be problems with timing the lure instead of the Leader or winner. I normally make scribbling notes in notebooks, in HK over that 1650 i time winning post to winning post, and you get pretty accurate timings, shorter races you need to pick a reference point which could be slightly offset, but my notes that meeting r1 ran 86.57, the next 1650 was 87.80 and the last one which was the highest class ran 86.87 which lines up pretty well with the overall times was my conclusion. whenever there has been an issue in overal time it's always has something to do with the barrier timing. when viewing , the overlay running time on screen doesn't show for a few seconds and you can try and match up when the timing has begun. In that first race my notes cast doubt on the first sectional recorded which I thought was .30 faster than what I thought they actually ran, but again i was timing from the winning post the first time, but in the end I thought the timing Overal was correct but the sectional times had been fitted to the overal time, and when that occurs its normally the last sectional that is fitted. Conclusion Overal time is correct

 

[The Hare]

Saturday results and another bumper card for Wednesday holiday in Hong Kong.

 

[The Hare]

Thought i would take a look at a runner each day.
The "winner" today is Gale Saga in the first race. Has won only 2 of it's 27 races both at 1400 Sha Tin, a class 5 and 4. Seems likes a long break as 2 of his best runs after a break and the other 2 after a 2-3 week break in January and February.
Over 1600 today which on past evidence is not a great idea.
The 4 best runs all with a jockey change but nothing special from that as different jockeys and regularly changed..
The last win off 45 the limit it seems as struggled above that but has now dropped to a decent mark but the last 2 runs not too encouraging.
So i looked at the horse because the last run was a trainer change, Ng horses not been in the same shape this season as last. The 8 week break before last run and not the usual finish that normally delivers.
Racing off 1175 declared today, by far the heaviest ever run off. That would be an off putter.
Looks like not in the form of old at the moment and a definite pass for this race for me.

 

[The Hare]

I generally will re-time races that show some anomaly to be sure, normally with greyhounds there could be problems with timing the lure instead of the Leader or winner. I normally make scribbling notes in notebooks, in HK over that 1650 i time winning post to winning post, and you get pretty accurate timings, shorter races you need to pick a reference point which could be slightly offset, but my notes that meeting r1 ran 86.57, the next 1650 was 87.80 and the last one which was the highest class ran 86.87 which lines up pretty well with the overall times was my conclusion. whenever there has been an issue in overal time it's always has something to do with the barrier timing. when viewing , the overlay running time on screen doesn't show for a few seconds and you can try and match up when the timing has begun. In that first race my notes cast doubt on the first sectional recorded which I thought was .30 faster than what I thought they actually ran, but again i was timing from the winning post the first time, but in the end I thought the timing Overal was correct but the sectional times had been fitted to the overal time, and when that occurs its normally the last sectional that is fitted. Conclusion Overal time is correct

This is excellent W woof43 . I always promise myself to try and time things but never get round to it as to easily distracted or too many things going on!

As for the times I find odd in Hong Kong it is always the first or first 2 at Happy Valley. Not all meetings but I was generally putting it down to class 5 horses going all out from the start. As you say the last of the 3 over he trip at that meeting was in line with my times as well. Interesting that you say the final sectional is generally fiddled to line up the finish times nut you believe they used the first here. Do you think many times are wrong/

At Sha Tin I rum 3 different standards for the 1000m as the times are radically different to other races if I use just 1. I know it is kind of a different course but generally the times fit well to either my fast or middle and if very slow I use a slower standard. Just fudging it really but calculating a time rating from just 1 race over that trip would be a little less convincing.

For Sha Tin turf on Saturday the time ratings were very close to expected on all races on the turf and must be the closest I have ever been to perfection in times. The general 14 runners and coming to the end of the season a spark for that I suppose.

As you say ggreyhounds are affected by the speed of the hare or in some times over here the time the traps open which is again I suppose affected by the speed the hare hits the springer. Also the dreaded handicap races which are regularly hand times as the timing mechanism fails.

AS you say though in general the times in Hong Kong fit well and the ones that stand out usually deliver better results going on.

 

[desimal]

Looks like not in the form of old at the moment and a definite pass for this race for me.

Agree on everything, a definite pass. That said the stewards report noted he was playing up in the parade.

The inconsistent body weights with some of the poorer performing trainers is definitely a red flag, though I wish I had data relating to body weight and how increases/decreases correlate with winning etc and particularly how it differs between trainers etc. Sometimes a horses weight looks hugely concerning then they win... I'm guessing syndicates have a tone of work in that department + the big ones have parade watchers for HK (through the TV though, not in person).

Of that race Frantanck looks ready to win with a barrier upgrade and at a fantastic mark if the apprentice rides ok, was well-supported last time.
Perfecto Moments also racing great and gets a huge map upgrade after 5 bad-average draws. Given their maps, if they get a decent pace to suit up front then that should suit a quinnella. Of course other chances, though always risky race 1 wanting to see if the track is up & in again as it seems to be this time of year with some rain and a worn track.

 

[desimal]

All the trial times from the 23rd (week ago) seem extremely fast, visually it looks warm/dry. Caution.

Also meeting 21st of June I have noted the first 6 races the rail might have been off, but improved after the track was rolled (7 onwards).

That huge rating you have The Hare for Incanto Star may have been assisted by the best ground on the track. Also have that rated highly but hard to trust the $50SP repeating a huge one-off.

 

[The Hare]

All the trial times from the 23rd (week ago) seem extremely fast, visually it looks warm/dry. Caution.

Also meeting 21st of June I have noted the first 6 races the rail might have been off, but improved after the track was rolled (7 onwards).

That huge rating you have The Hare for Incanto Star may have been assisted by the best ground on the track. Also have that rated highly but hard to trust the $50SP repeating a huge one-off.

Hello D desimal here are the information I have for Incanto Star, as you say a high rating for that last race compared to previous. You had me worried I had an error, had a look and realised the first 5 are very close so that not as bad. Only the race on 14 January compares with this one. The only differences being the class drop and distance drop. Looks on a great mark now but see tomorrow drops in trip again to 1200 and up in class again. I had excellent finishing figures for the sectionals in the last race but surely a drop in trip not ideal? Very interesting back in a longer trip race so this maybe a sharpener and one last chance afterwards before the season ends?

My ratings are just based on the final finishing position, the speed figures are slightly below 14 Jan and 10 Dec last year which are probably a better reflection on it's ability.

 

[Outlander]

Wednesday attached
Mike

 

[desimal]

Very interesting back in a longer trip race so this maybe a sharpener and one last chance afterwards before the season ends?

Yep feel like this is not a target race but I'd be curious to see if he gets backed off that huge performance.

Bullish Nova and Storm Mirror look a clear top 2 in that race for mine. Watch the replay of Bullish Nova how he seemed to accelerate just before hitting the line and how good he was through the line. If he got to that fifth gear a bit earlier he could have put up a bigger figure.