Handicap Class Droppers

[JennyK]

We'll never know, of course, Tufnel, but I think VDW was guilty of was what you, I and certainly other regular posters do, exploring possible new angles as they occur. He also had one problem we don't have, working with the printed Form Book, a racing paper, pen and notebook, whereas we have long had the benefit of pcs, internet resources such as the Post's database and now of course AI. Hence, I think, his interest in short cuts to narrow a field. I have no doubt whatsoever that VDW's main method delivers the goods. Whether his "byways", including some supposed short cuts such as Erin numbers and puzzles such as the handicap hurdles and the Travado etc six really lead anywhere I'm not so sure.

As to what I see as his main method, both VDW and Lee found more bets with it than I do, but I think that is at least partly down to my narrow focus, sprint handicaps, which certainly don't deliver many "sore thumbs". You backed Al Shabab Storm on 24/10/26 and remarked then and since that it stood out much more clearly than most. It is still the most complete consistent class/form horse I've found this Autumn. In the two spells when Lee gave some pre race posted selections, in 2004 and 2007, he found more strong bets in a few days than I ever have, but he was catholic re code, type of race, distances etc, and worked in part (maybe a big part) from lists and he believed VDW did.

A word about VDW's main method. I see it as one, whereas others view there as being two - "consistency" and "Roushayd". Whether it is one method, with a significant extra element with class droppers, or two is really a matter of taxonomy and semantics, provided one is aware of the huge core of commonality.

 

[Tufnel]

re: Sea Eagle - drops of 4lb or more are quite rare (just under 6%) in Irish NH Tufnel
reckon that 118 from that Perth race is a misprint or a provisional "first UK run" rating by the BHA
don't see why they would have to though as it was a Non-Hcap Maiden Hurdle
What's it showing on irishracing.com for that race ??

View attachment 173294

Yes I was forgetting the race was at Perth and the BHA ratings are almost always higher than the Irish ones. It was still a remarkable transformation in running though to the pretty poor showing at Perth against largely bumper only winners.

 

[Tufnel]

We'll never know, of course, Tufnel, but I think VDW was guilty of was what you, I and certainly other regular posters do, exploring possible new angles as they occur. He also had one problem we don't have, working with the printed Form Book, a racing paper, pen and notebook, whereas we have long had the benefit of pcs, internet resources such as the Post's database and now of course AI. Hence, I think, his interest in short cuts to narrow a field. I have no doubt whatsoever that VDW's main method delivers the goods. Whether his "byways", including some supposed short cuts such as Erin numbers and puzzles such as the handicap hurdles and the Travado etc six really lead anywhere I'm not so sure.

As to what I see as his main method, both VDW and Lee found more bets with it than I do, but I think that is at least partly down to my narrow focus, sprint handicaps, which certainly don't deliver many "sore thumbs". You backed Al Shabab Storm on 24/10/26 and remarked then and since that it stood out much more clearly than most. It is still the most complete consistent class/form horse I've found this Autumn. In the two spells when Lee gave some pre race posted selections, in 2004 and 2007, he found more strong bets in a few days than I ever have, but he was catholic re code, type of race, distances etc, and worked in part (maybe a big part) from lists and he believed VDW did.

A word about VDW's main method. I see it as one, whereas others view there as being two - "consistency" and "Roushayd". Whether it is one method, with a significant extra element with class droppers, or two is really a matter of taxonomy and semantics, provided one is aware of the huge core of commonality.

Actually I was looking back through posts over the last few months and my clear class/form bets especially when dropping in class have outperformed my others.

Al Shab Storm, Pole Star, Coul Angel all had full marks in my view.

I think the Erin figures are useful as they do have similar capture rates to the consistent probables but usually concerning a lower number of horses.

The principal handicap and non handicap chase method seems to be more about the strength of strike rate in the first 2 of the market in such races when they are also form consistent form horses. And in that respect I think VDW was making it out to be another approach when really it was using the first 2 in the forecast/market to determine when to wager on a selection.

Perhaps that’s one reason he said Sunset Cristo was almost a certainty where as Little Owl he views as a certainty?

Of course when it comes to Wayward Lad’s KG win at 12/1 that safety check seems to have been overlooked given he said it was one of two horses he wagered on from around a dozen he thought should win over the Christmas racing action. Again the latter mention of time period is vague because he might just mean Boxing Day or the 2 days post Christmas Day or even the whole week until new year?

 

[Tufnel]

JennyK Regarding how you see consistent form horses, would you view Beacon Light as a consistent form horse in the Erin?

Of the 5 horses in the forecast area, Decent Fellow was clearly inconsistent though of course had the highest winning class rating from his 2nd last run and with a sizeable weight and in a handicap too.

Monksfield was clearly not a consideration on any score.

The 3 remaining horses were also the 3 Erin figure probables but Prominent King was not even one of the 3 most consistent totals in the forecast, never mind the field. Though if VDW applied his last and well beaten rule (which he hadn't mentioned at that time) then Decent Fellow would have had a total of 14 and Prominent King would have been one the 3 most consistent in the forecast.

But back to the consistent form status. VDW made a point of saying of Beacon Light "..and his last race had been a hard one against Sea Pigeon."

That gives us only 2 factors to go on. The manner of his his last race performance and who it was against.

Obviously Sea Pigeon was a lower AR horse receiving 4 lbs from Beacon Light and coming from a last completed start and victory in a lower class race albeit more than 8 months before (though he had been running on the flat). That covers the Sea Pigeon/opposition factor.

But the hard race factor is clearly derived from the official race comments for the Sandown race. Beacon Light led from the 4th hurdle, went clear from the 5th hurdle but was headed after the last on the flat going down by a length noted as "hard driven, kept on".

The race was run on heavy going too.

VDW said BL's race "had been a hard one". This comment alone when aligned with the race comments tells me that how they performed in the last few furlongs was more than just what was around the horse at those stages of the race. The manner of victory or defeat needed to be weighed up.

This is of course in line with the view that winning horses going up in class was less about key horses and more about the manner of victory.

 

[JennyK]

No, Tufnel. On my interpretation, a consistent horse is always a "form" horse, but it doesn't work the other way around. That is, a "form" horse is not necessarily a consistent horse. No flat races this week, but if we look back to Saturday, in the November Handicap the winner and several others were in my view consistent "form" horses, but Tashkhan for example was a "form" horse but not a consistent horse.

Beacon Light was neither.

But of course it all depends on which of several usages of "consistent" one believes VDW used when linking it to "form", as per the Buckbe example.

 

[gerry]

I think if you look at todays racing there is form in the book which really tells a lot about horse racing and it is the last two races of the day 3 40 Huntingdon and the 3 50 Lingfield so what's so interesting about them then well we have two horses who finished nearly dead heat last time out against each other fav for both of them so both have took different routes one is going up in distance the other back in distance which when you look at the finish of that last race logical but your talking about near a mile difference between them today in distance that's a lot so have they both got it right today, well both look like dropping in class today so there sense in there logic finding these races.
The reason i mention these two horses is both running with in 10 minutes of each other and clear comparison to what trainers are doing with them and could be a very good look indeed at what makes sense in a horse race.
Two things spring to mind for them both one VIRTUAL ROCK is breed to go back down in distance so wise move and the other one REBEL TRIBESMAN is breed to go up in distance so again wise move.
The other thing i noticed is VIRTUAL ROCK although seven looked like improving horse to me and since going to this trainer has put tounge strap on and looks different horse so i think will be very hard to beat today again. The other horse REBEL TRIBESMAN looks a little more already at potential but the distance could give it a little more to go on and although i think could win again to maybe the odds of both should have been other way round for me anyway and i was more than happy the 9/4 on VIRTUAL ROCK i do see now been backed in to 13/8 and not surprised but this is to me the biggest 10 minutes of todays races by far.

 

[Tufnel]

I see Urbs Intacta Manet in the Fairyhouse 2:30 race as a consistent form horse who faced the best opposition last time out in the consistent class/form horse Ceroc at the same course as today. This is a QR race though but the jockey is a capable claimer and this horse is definitely improving. It is also the favourite in the principle non handicap chase of the day so I am going to back this horse given the evidence. I can't see a Ceroc profile in the rest of the runners of this race today.

Huntingdon 2:40 Cap Ricochet is class/form and consistent. Gave weight to Golly Gosh, a form horse on the day who won a class 44 race next time out at Plumpton as fav. I think it's a genuine fav and can't any real reason to not back this.

gerry I see Cayman Dancer as the class/form horse but Virtual Rock ran against better opposition than CD did last time out. I'm leaving the race alone but was surprised CD was not shorter in the market.

Rebel Tribesman looks like the real class/form horse in the race because DJo Dela Barriere's AR is greatly inflated by being gifted a 3 horse chase at Ludlow by the separate departures of the 2 shorter priced runners including one of them at the last when 3 lengths clear. But he is still a reasonable hurdler as seen last time out in lower class. I backed RT last time but not today even though I see him as by far the likeliest winner.

I'm sticking with the 2 chasers above today.

 

[Tufnel]

No, Tufnel. On my interpretation, a consistent horse is always a "form" horse, but it doesn't work the other way around. That is, a "form" horse is not necessarily a consistent horse. No flat races this week, but if we look back to Saturday, in the November Handicap the winner and several others were in my view consistent "form" horses, but Tashkhan for example was a "form" horse but not a consistent horse.

Beacon Light was neither.

But of course it all depends on which of several usages of "consistent" one believes VDW used when linking it to "form", as per the Buckbe example.

Well I suppose Beacon Light would have to be a non form horse in order to not be consistent on the back of 2 wins.

BL vs Sea Pigeon is often related to Celtic Pleasure v Amber Valley but I also think Battlement v Amber Valley is very important too.

BL was giving 4 lbs carrying 12-2 to Sea Pigeon beaten just 1 length. BL was dropping in class but Sea Pigeon was going up in class and had a chase fall in between.

CP was dropping in class carrying 14 lb more with 9-7 when beaten a length by Amber Valley with 8-9 who was coming from a lower class win where AV carried 8-12 giving 8 lbs and 6 lengths to the 2nd horse.

Battlement was dropping in class from a win with just 7-11 when meeting Amber Valley whilst carrying 11 lb more with 8-8.
Amber Valley was carrying 9-10 having also come from a higher class race, but a bit lower than Battlements, where AV had carried 8-9 receiving 15 lb from winner Cletic Pleasure and had won by 1 length, so Amber Valley was carrying 15 lb more when beating Battlement.

Beacon Light went from handicap and up in class to the Erin a conditions race carrying 8 lb less.

Celtic Pleasure went up in class at Sandown carrying 13 lb less.

Battlement went up in class at Thirsk with 14 lb less.

JennyK If Beacon Light had not gone to the Erin and run in say a class 30 conditions race following Sandown how would you have rated him in the context of form status and consistent form in such a race?

 

[JennyK]

"If Beacon Light had not gone to the Erin and run in say a class 30 conditions race following Sandown how would you have rated him in the context of form status and consistent form in such a race?"

The same as for the Erin. On the evidence of the three races he was going out of form.

 

[Tufnel]

"If Beacon Light had not gone to the Erin and run in say a class 30 conditions race following Sandown how would you have rated him in the context of form status and consistent form in such a race?"

The same as for the Erin. On the evidence of the three races he was going out of form.

Thanks. Interesting.

Though if it dropped far enough in class there has to come a point where one could not realistically argue that the horse was not a form horse in the context of such a race.

 

[JennyK]

Not on VDW's approach, I think. Don't forget "one performance better than another". But of course not being a "form" horse for a race does not mean the horse won't return to form in it and win (nothing in VDW's, or anyone else's work I'm aware of, can predict that with certainty),

Lee's point re backing Wing And A Prayer types as his bread and butter is important. VDW was showing how one could identify probable winners, not improbable ones, and the Wing And A Prayer types (and the Al Shabab Storms dropping in class), are from a VDW and Lee perspective the ones to go for.

 

[Tufnel]

Not on VDW's approach, I think. Don't forget "one performance better than another". But of course not being a "form" horse for a race does not mean the horse won't return to form in it and win (nothing in VDW's, or anyone else's work I'm aware of, can predict that with certainty),

Lee's point re backing Wing And A Prayer types as his bread and butter is important. VDW was showing how one could identify probable winners, not improbable ones, and the Wing And A Prayer types (and the Al Shabab Storms dropping in class), are from a VDW and Lee perspective the ones to go for.

Is it always better though or just not worse than the last?

Battlement dropped in class against a runner from a lower class race than his LTO win and was receiving weight. Then went back up to the same class as 2nd last run with though with 4 lb less than that previous 2nd last run win.

It doesn't seem like an improved run when taking into account it was a class drop and the winner came from a lower class than Battlement did.

 

[JennyK]

Better or not worse is right.