Handicap Class Droppers

[Tufnel]

Hi Tufnel

Re”In the Pegwell Bay letter VDW commented on the result with "The result makes it appear he is capable of winning again before long."

Perhaps he said that because the prize money of 22K would have pushed his ability rating higher than the ability ratings of the horses that he beat . Just a thought and not a definite conclusion

That certainly ties in with going up a long way in class and winning.

What I'm really saying with that situation though is that if Pegwell Bay dropped in class next time and it's suggested he needs key horse support which I just don't see how Dudie gives that support. But if he had been going up in class to likely better opposition he wouldn't need key horse support. Which doesn't sound logical to me.

Philodantes, who I think was clearly a bet VDW was shouting about in the corresponding letter, had already won a better class race at the distance in his last 3 runs from that season than the Goodwood race he was labelled a "good thing". But he had been only 6th LTO in a lower class than his win but still higher than Goodwood. It was also a new trip of 1m 4f and the way he ran described in the comments says he led over 2f out and basically faded beyond 1m 2f.

The winner in that race had not been 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO but had been 4th as 9/4 2nd fav and the race had been just 4 days before winning at Royal Ascot. To my mind and I'm sure VDW would have likely seen it this way too, that was not a shock result at Ascot. Merely the result of the games trainers play when prepping for a big handicap race. Coupled with the fact Philodantes had the best form in the same way Pegwell Bay was said to in that example (though I think Philodantes was more clear cut the better form horse on a class basis), I think Philodantes is an example the shows rigid key horse considerations such as must have been 1st,2nd or 3rd in it's previous race and in the first 3 of the market don't hold up to scrutiny in the wider picture. Especially when you look at Love From Verona or Ekbalco.

That's how I see it anyway. Methodical processes have guidelines not rules.

 

[Chesham]

It would depend when VDW sent the letter into Tony Peach and if it was after Townley Stone Next run who won and JimThorpe who finished2ndto Desert Orchid before PB ran again

 

[gerry]

There is only one race i see today where there is two horses who are both going the right way when you look at there form in the 2 20 Sedgefield they are STAY HOPEFULL and ILLOGICAL LOGIC so it looks a race to me you dont need look any further as the rest are not improving in any manner maybe with the exception of KINBARA FIRSTDRAFT who just finished behind IL i also notice that the racing post does not have any claim up on E Collier which is clearly wrong as she claimed 5 in last race and down field so still 5lb.
So to me wont reverse placings as this horse is more likely to revert to its poor runs or at best similar.
Where as IL has been better horse in past too, So now we have the two with showing signs of improving what one is the question VDW would ask him self is most likely today here is when it gets interesting dont forget this is poor class race he might have had no interest in this race what so ever but lets say he looked at it . First thing he would notice is SH improved a lot on last two runs but look at its second last race in hind sight of course both horses who beat it done nothing since and form looks poor so now why would this horse step up in class and be odds on and win just did not look like could not unless has improved a lot in mean time of second last race. when you look at that last race win it beat two horses who had improved on there last runs and should have had chance so it does not just beat them it wins like odds on shot should dramatic improvement ok it is up 7lb now but claim makes it only 4lb is improving that not in doubt at all and in same class 0-100 so there has to need be something better than that to beat it.
If i am right then i have only one danger i thought IL who has been more consistent than improving is fair to say two runs back beat the fav and that horse was first run after wind surgery and two runs since makes it look like consistent horse to, the third who is in the race today PATH OF STARS has looked consistent also so the form of that run is consistent, So the big question is did IL improve last run where won again the answer looks like not really where it beat KF a inconsistent horse and same for third and the fav did not perform that day.
So in all reasoning STAY HOPEFULL on a upward curve with out doubt and ok shorter distance but on breeding has enough speed to not worry about this distance you look back in this horse form one final clue will be start if leads dont bet it if held up which you will see even at start what it looks like hes doing get on will likely come through these. Now the big question is it a bet would he have bet it considering it beat two horses who had shown improved form last time out at canter and was odd on he might think anything odds against today is fair.

 

[Chesham]

Hi gerry

RE “KINBARA FIRSTDRAFT who just finished behind IL i also notice that the racing post does not have any claim up on E Collier which is clearly wrong as she claimed 5 in last race and down field so still 5lb.”

It is because of the Small Print on the Ticket , E collier cannot claim as it is a conditional Rider Race the race conditions are different
E Collier has ridden 22 winners so can use any claim

 

[Chesham]

Tufnel

Another way of looking at Roushayd are the horses coming out of the Northern Dancer

Vouchafe and Rambo Dancer

VOuchafe won NTO as every one knows, Rambo Dancer was 2nd in the Vouchafe win. But Rambo Dance NTO July 1st went and won a 26K race and THE ONC was run the day after. So two horses winning who competed in the Norther Dancer

Often with some of these races we are looking backwards and not forwards when it comes to VDW

Sunset Cristo VDW mentions that these horses finished behind him. the horses mentioned were The Engineer who had won a Race since competing against SC and Silver Buck had won a race since competing against SC .. We often here the words “Franked The Form”

 

[Chesham]

Had a look at The Race Won BY Vouchasafe as Rambo Dancer Won. There was another horse in that race that won a valuable prize NTO

The Draw analysis did not know that the recommended Tracker Horse won NTO

Tactical Pace Mapping​

Without the 0-20mph split data, we rely on the in-running comments to map the front end.

• The Pace Setter: Sanamar (33/1) was the undisputed hare in this race. The comments note he "Led 10f, one pace." He set the tempo for the vast majority of the 1m4f trip before being swallowed up by the closers.
• The Pace Collapse: Behind Sanamar, horses like Stavordale ("led 2f out") and Plymouth Hoe ("every chance inside final furlong") made their moves too early. Both horses committed for home a long way out, fighting each other down the straight.
• The Setup: This prolonged battle at the head of affairs perfectly set the race up for patient, ground-saving rides. Vouchsafe ("3rd straight, lost place over 2f out, headway on inside over 1f out, led close home") and Rambo Dancer ("6th straight, headway on inside over 1f out") both bided their time on the rail before launching late runs.

Tracker Recommendations & Upgrades​

1. Stavordale (Finished 3rd at 25/1)

• The Upgraded Effort: He ran a massive race in defeat. Drawn out wide in Stall 16 (on a track that heavily favored low draws), he was forced to make his move early ("led 2f out"). To kick for home that far out over 1m4f and still cling on for 3rd, only beaten a neck and a head, is a phenomenal effort. He essentially ran the finish out of himself by committing too soon.
• Tracker Note: He is sitting on a huge run. With a more patient ride or a slightly easier track, he will be very difficult to beat.

2. Plymouth Hoe (Finished 4th at 5/1)

• The Draw Victim: Trapped in the dead middle ground (Stall 8), he was the only horse from the middle bracket to get involved in the finish. He engaged in a sustained duel ("every chance inside final furlong") before finally yielding in the last 100 yards.

3. Vouchsafe (Finished 1st at 12/1)

• The Perfect Trip: He was given an absolute masterclass of a ride by W Carson. Drawn in Stall 2, he hugged the inside rail ("headway on inside over 1f out"), saved all the ground, and pounced late as the early leaders folded. A brilliant win, but he was seen to maximum effect.

Race Summary Chart​

Pos	Horse (Stall)	SP	PR%	TFR (Master)	RPR	Comments
1st	Vouchsafe (2)	12/1	7.7%	-	82	Headway on inside over 1f out, led close home
2nd	Rambo Dancer (5)	10/1	9.1%	-	96	Headway on inside over 1f out, ran on
3rd	Stavordale (16)	25/1	3.8%	-	93	Led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on
4th	Plymouth Hoe (8)	5/1	16.7%	-	90	Headway 2f out, every chance inside final furlong
5th	Qannaas (9)	12/1	7.7%	-	85	Headway 2f out, unable to quicken
7th	Sanamar (4)	33/1	2.9%	-	74	Led 10f, one pace
10th	Billet (3)	7/2F	22.2%	-	90	Dwelt, in rear 8f, never nearer

 

[JennyK]

"So from that I deduce that the ability rating and the class of races a horse runs in are used to add another measure to how good a race was. We see the class rating for the race but within the race we the class of horses engaged through both their ability rating and their previous runs using the same set of measures."

A perfectly reasonable deduction, Tufnel, but like all deductions re aspects of VDW's main method, it may be incorrect. As I've posted before, in the absence of definitive answers about several matters, the best we can do is test our deductions/hypotheses across the range of VDW's examples. Those that work with them all are more likely to be correct than those which don't.

 

[Tufnel]

Well today was a much better day but it could have been a great day but for a shd photo costing me a 15/2 winner with Curious Mrs Fox (The jockey starting to be a bok for me) and me deciding to leave the 3 probables I narrowed it down to in the handicap hurdle at Limerick and the finished the 1,2,3 at 4/1,22/1 and 7/1.

Still happy with my 9/1 winner at Sedgefield and 5/1 at Leopardstown from just 2 dutches and a 3 horse book. With Williethebuilder being a particularly pleasing watch as he took it up on the bridle and swept clear.

 

[Chesham]

Well done Tufnel

 

[Tufnel]

"So from that I deduce that the ability rating and the class of races a horse runs in are used to add another measure to how good a race was. We see the class rating for the race but within the race we the class of horses engaged through both their ability rating and their previous runs using the same set of measures."

A perfectly reasonable deduction, Tufnel, but like all deductions re aspects of VDW's main method, it may be incorrect. As I've posted before, in the absence of definitive answers about several matters, the best we can do is test our deductions/hypotheses across the range of VDW's examples. Those that work with them all are more likely to be correct than those which don't.

I may have a note of this somewhere, but do you have a list or number of the examples he classed as outstanding bet or certainty/racing certainty?

I can only find a small number so far and I note in the Celtic Pleasure letter he mixes "outstanding bet/s" with "two more good things" applying the former to Celtic Pleasure and the following week's 3 selections, but the latter to Battlement won 9/2 at Thirsk, and Strombolus won 7/1 the next day following CP's win.

Is that deliberate difference of labelling or just VDW using different terminology to point out the same things?

 

[JennyK]

Certainties (inc qualiified such as almost)

Ascenia, Crown Matrimonial, Desert Orchid (13/12/86, 07/02/87, 08/04/87), Diamond Edge, Little Owl (07/03/81). Park Express, Parkhouse, Pipsted, Royal Bond, Roushayd, Sunset Cristo, Three Tails, Zilzal.

Outstanding bets

Celtic Pleasure, Derrylin, Orchestra, Rifle Brigade

There are others, such as Ile De Chypre and Wing And A Prayer, where without using either phrase, the words VDW did use suggested they were comparable.

I'm inclined to think there was no difference between certainties (inc qualified) and outstanding bets, but I am not sure. I think I would be, but for Pipsted.

 

[Tufnel]

Hi gerry

RE “KINBARA FIRSTDRAFT who just finished behind IL i also notice that the racing post does not have any claim up on E Collier which is clearly wrong as she claimed 5 in last race and down field so still 5lb.”

It is because of the Small Print on the Ticket , E collier cannot claim as it is a conditional Rider Race the race conditions are different
E Collier has ridden 22 winners so can use any claim
View attachment 172658

CJ handicaps can be a good source of future winners because another useful condition of them is a winner is not penalised for winning one and can run again soon after often well in at the weights.

 

[Tufnel]

Certainties (inc qualiified such as almost)

Ascenia, Crown Matrimonial, Desert Orchid (13/12/86, 07/02/87, 08/04/97), Diamond Edge, Little Owl (07/03/81). Park Express, Parkhouse, Pipsted, Royal Bond, Roushayd, Sunset Cristo, Three Tails, Zilzal.

Outstanding bets

Celtic Pleasure, Derrylin, Orchestra, Rifle Brigade

There are others, such as Ile De Chypre and Wing And A Prayer, where without using either phrase, the words VDW did use suggested they were comparable.

I'm inclined to think there was no difference between certainties (inc qualified) and outstanding bets, but I am not sure. I think I would be, but for Pipsted.

Thanks I will check them all again. Just from immediate memory though he described Diamond Edge, Parkhouse, Crown Matrimonial and Ascencia as stonewall certainties that show the ultimate balance with all 4 being top on ability rating. Little Owl of course was too. Sunset Cristo wasn’t quite top but was clear of the next highest form horse so perhaps explains “nearly a certainty”?

 

[JennyK]

That's what I first thought, but Pipsted is the fly in that particular ointment.

 

[Tufnel]

4 Handicap Hurdles at Plumpton today.

3:30 Nap Hand passes the tests. However, I'm going to put 25% of what I place on Nap Hand on Tashan to save the stake if Nap Hand can't manage to win this for his bookmaker owners who also sponsor the race. He was fav last year in this race having taken the same route as today. But it was much stronger race last year on the numerical picture than this year's.

4:30 Latin is the selection. This horse an interesting backstory too. Started life as Coolmore horse and went via Denis Hogan to James Owen where he won several flat races around a mile. Now with Olly Murphy and incurred a lot of attention from the stewards over it's effort at Uttoxeter behind winner Uncle Remus (who won again since when I backed it with this method last week at Fontwell). The 2nd behind Ballygeary at Market Rasen (another winner for this method on the day) was more like it though again held up and arrived when it was all over after the last. Fits the bill for this method on my calculations.

5:05 Mild Magic fits the bill. Trainer has had recent winners who had not run since late spring/early summer and you'd expect this race to be a target for such a mare clearly on the up for a trip. Again not a great price compared to yesterday's selections but if they're not there they're not there. I suppose Skelton's runner 2nd run after a wind op and up a lot in trip might be a plot horse. But it might just be a poor horse too.

The 2:30 race didn't throw up a clear choice. Gone Country looks most likely to me especially in view of the connections and who the race honours. They also have another probable in Eliza Dolittle too. But the top weight looks dangerous to dismiss and given Gone Country has a small question mark on one aspect of the method, I'll sit this one out even though his trainer has a habit of producing horses who win a few after winning first time in a handicap especially at the Sussex tracks.

 

[Tufnel]

Gowran Park 5:10 Lord Aus and Shay's Dream look good dutch. Lord Aus dropping in class in more ways than one and Shay's Dream a low weighted improver.

Plumpton 4:00 Lots of conflict in this race and not much consistency.

Pontefract 3:53 In The Breeze and Tashkhan both class droppers. ITB the more convincing profile and faced a supremely well handicapped horse last time in higher class when 2nd and 3rd won since. Beat the fav easily last time they met and this is a drop in class today. Goes on the going too and Fallon back on board. Tashkhan more speculative but highest AR in the race down in class to lowest in a while.

 

[Tufnel]

Gone Country bolted in like a horse who will win again soon. Drifted out to as big as 15/8 before returning 7/4. In hindsight my "small question mark on one aspect of the method" was just that and he was getting enough weight in this race to not really worry about it. You didn't need to be Einstein to know the horse would be fit for a race in. honour of the trainers father at one of their local tracks and of course it was obvious from a pace point of view that the stables other runner (who was fav for the concluding mares handicap hurdle last season) would do her thing out in front. Ah well. Didn't sit enough races out on Saturday but perhaps sat one or two out I shouldn't have since.

 

[Tufnel]

I was looking at this overview for a while and kept thinking in the context of a 5k race at Bath, what is wrong with the horse that has form in much higher class and has raced last 3 times in much higher class?

It would appear nothing was wrong. And I didn't make a penny from it.

 

[Tufnel]

How often do we see Sean Bowen get beat in a tight finish. If he'd jumped the last rather than go through it Latin would have won.

 

[Tufnel]

3 out 5 winning races today and another shd away from a clean sweep in the handicap hurdles. Still can't believe Sean Bowen's mount didn't manage to get home on Latin.

The staying race at Pontefract was a bit annoying really because I was onto the angle against the fav. He was taking on 3 horses who had all beaten him fair and square recently and I managed to plump for the one who didn't run his race this afternoon.