Results
Back Draw/Santos @ 1.85 (0-2) Won +8.50pts
Profit/Loss of the day +8.50 pts
Overall Profit/Loss +39.0 pts
Back Draw/Santos @ 1.85 (0-2) Won +8.50pts
Profit/Loss of the day +8.50 pts
Overall Profit/Loss +39.0 pts
Footballbettingpredictor's value selections
- Thread starter FootballBettingPredictor
- Start date
Morning
FootballBettingPredictor
Liking the thread and the way you go about compiling your odds, it looks like your method would be good for some pre match trading if the odds more often than not follow your predictions?
I noticed in one of your posts that you say the inplay stats are there for the benefit of the bookmakers, but I don't see why you can't use these to your advantage as well?
The santos game last night showed inplay stats of santos winning 3.0 on corners before they scored their first goal.
Whichever way the game is going in favour or against you stats wise, then this offers you an option of increasing or laying off stakes in play
Good luck going forward, it's clear to see you have put a lot of work into this, so thanks for sharing
FootballBettingPredictor Liking the thread and the way you go about compiling your odds, it looks like your method would be good for some pre match trading if the odds more often than not follow your predictions?
I noticed in one of your posts that you say the inplay stats are there for the benefit of the bookmakers, but I don't see why you can't use these to your advantage as well?
The santos game last night showed inplay stats of santos winning 3.0 on corners before they scored their first goal.
Whichever way the game is going in favour or against you stats wise, then this offers you an option of increasing or laying off stakes in play
Good luck going forward, it's clear to see you have put a lot of work into this, so thanks for sharing
soccertipster
Newbie
WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS
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09 June 2017 HOME DRAW AWAY
19:45 Andorra v Hungary 29.0 9.00 1.11
9:45 Belarus v Bulgaria 2.80 3.00 2.80
19:45 Bos-Herz v Greece 1.67 3.50 6.00
19:45 Estonia v Belgium 17.0 7.00 1.18
19:45 Faroe Isl v Switzerland 19.0 7.50 1.17
19:45 Gibraltar v Cyprus 17.0 7.00 1.18
19:45 Latvia v Portugal 26.0 10.0 1.10
19:45 Netherlands v Luxembourg 1.02 23.0 51.0
19:45 Sweden v France 5.00 3.75 1.70
10 June 2017
17:00 Azerbaijan v N.Ireland 3.60 3.00 2.25
17:00 Kazakhstan v Denmark 8.00 4.20 1.45
17:00 Scotland v England 5.50 3.60 1.70
17:00 Slovenia v Malta 1.07 11.0 34.0
19:45 Germany v San Marino 1.01 34.0 67.0
19:45 Lithuania v Slovakia 6.00 3.50 1.67
19:45 Montenegro v Armenia 1.67 3.75 5.50
19:45 Norway v Czech Rep 2.70 3.10 2.80
19:45 Poland v Romania 1.50 3.75 8.00
11 June 2017
17:00 Finland v Ukraine 5.00 3.30 1.83
17:00 Moldova v Georgia 3.30 3.10 2.38
17:00 Rep of Irel v Austria 2.30 3.10 3.40
19:45 Iceland v Croatia 3.75 3.30 2.05
19:45 Israel v Albania 2.15 3.10 3.75
19:45 Italy v Liechtenstein 1.01 26.0 51.0
19:45 Kosovo v Turkey 19.0 7.00 1.17
19:45 FYR Macedonia v Spain 23.0 7.50 1.14
19:45 Serbia v Wales 1.73 3.50 5.
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09 June 2017 HOME DRAW AWAY
19:45 Andorra v Hungary 29.0 9.00 1.11
9:45 Belarus v Bulgaria 2.80 3.00 2.80
19:45 Bos-Herz v Greece 1.67 3.50 6.00
19:45 Estonia v Belgium 17.0 7.00 1.18
19:45 Faroe Isl v Switzerland 19.0 7.50 1.17
19:45 Gibraltar v Cyprus 17.0 7.00 1.18
19:45 Latvia v Portugal 26.0 10.0 1.10
19:45 Netherlands v Luxembourg 1.02 23.0 51.0
19:45 Sweden v France 5.00 3.75 1.70
10 June 2017
17:00 Azerbaijan v N.Ireland 3.60 3.00 2.25
17:00 Kazakhstan v Denmark 8.00 4.20 1.45
17:00 Scotland v England 5.50 3.60 1.70
17:00 Slovenia v Malta 1.07 11.0 34.0
19:45 Germany v San Marino 1.01 34.0 67.0
19:45 Lithuania v Slovakia 6.00 3.50 1.67
19:45 Montenegro v Armenia 1.67 3.75 5.50
19:45 Norway v Czech Rep 2.70 3.10 2.80
19:45 Poland v Romania 1.50 3.75 8.00
11 June 2017
17:00 Finland v Ukraine 5.00 3.30 1.83
17:00 Moldova v Georgia 3.30 3.10 2.38
17:00 Rep of Irel v Austria 2.30 3.10 3.40
19:45 Iceland v Croatia 3.75 3.30 2.05
19:45 Israel v Albania 2.15 3.10 3.75
19:45 Italy v Liechtenstein 1.01 26.0 51.0
19:45 Kosovo v Turkey 19.0 7.00 1.17
19:45 FYR Macedonia v Spain 23.0 7.50 1.14
19:45 Serbia v Wales 1.73 3.50 5.
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good morning to you to
D
djb38
I don't have long now today or in midweek to give you a long reply
. My work can be used in many different ways as you say it would be down to the individual like you say you could could take prices early and lay off before even a ball was kicked (if the odds moved in your favour). Use it pre-match like I do or again like you say use it inplay.
The reason I say inplay stats are for the bookmakers is again they can predict the punters behaviour punters.
sorry only 2 matches on and none of them are again good for an example.
RIGHT IM THE BOOKMAKER
But lets say Sydney FC u21s had 10 on target and 11 off and its 0-0 we all know that the avg punter would back the home team looking at stats. now let say i had the home team at 2.40 and my database says that they only at most a 38% of winning. I also know that Sydney have a 0.08 shots to goal ratio But as a bookmaker I can price them at 1.40 as some punters don't care about price they look at the stats and think they MUST score in a min.
This is what i mean by it works for them cause everyone is looking at the stats more then likely it leads everyone to back the same outcome driving the price down and sucking out all the value and makes the punters take bad bets.
But you could make it work by saying a team you fancy is getting battered but you know they are a better team and shots to goal ratio is high and that they don't create many chances but score alot of the chances they create then you can watch the odds drift in you favour.
Punters are the ones that give you value 9/10 by following prices that are coming in as they think someone knows something or the stats look good.
I have to go now so will answer any questions tonight also please post if you agree or strongly disagree I'm not a know it all and I'm here to learn and to keep on learning about the game and market.
Bye for now
I don't have long now today or in midweek to give you a long reply
. My work can be used in many different ways as you say it would be down to the individual like you say you could could take prices early and lay off before even a ball was kicked (if the odds moved in your favour). Use it pre-match like I do or again like you say use it inplay.The reason I say inplay stats are for the bookmakers is again they can predict the punters behaviour punters.
sorry only 2 matches on and none of them are again good for an example.
RIGHT IM THE BOOKMAKER
But lets say Sydney FC u21s had 10 on target and 11 off and its 0-0 we all know that the avg punter would back the home team looking at stats. now let say i had the home team at 2.40 and my database says that they only at most a 38% of winning. I also know that Sydney have a 0.08 shots to goal ratio But as a bookmaker I can price them at 1.40 as some punters don't care about price they look at the stats and think they MUST score in a min.
This is what i mean by it works for them cause everyone is looking at the stats more then likely it leads everyone to back the same outcome driving the price down and sucking out all the value and makes the punters take bad bets.
But you could make it work by saying a team you fancy is getting battered but you know they are a better team and shots to goal ratio is high and that they don't create many chances but score alot of the chances they create then you can watch the odds drift in you favour.
Punters are the ones that give you value 9/10 by following prices that are coming in as they think someone knows something or the stats look good.
I have to go now so will answer any questions tonight also please post if you agree or strongly disagree I'm not a know it all and I'm here to learn and to keep on learning about the game and market.
Bye for now
I kind of agree with you
FootballBettingPredictor and like your way of thinking.
My view would be if a team had for example, 11 shots on and 10 shots off target and it was still 0.0 then surely this game would end up being in the 38% of the games they win, whether they are playing against a weaker team or they have a full strength team playing/opposition have key players missing. Or am I fooling myself into going with the crowd?
It's always interesting to hear objective angles from fellow punters though
FootballBettingPredictor and like your way of thinking. My view would be if a team had for example, 11 shots on and 10 shots off target and it was still 0.0 then surely this game would end up being in the 38% of the games they win, whether they are playing against a weaker team or they have a full strength team playing/opposition have key players missing. Or am I fooling myself into going with the crowd?
It's always interesting to hear objective angles from fellow punters though
Question, when working out points profit I assume you bet 10 points on each bet? Meaning the 36.5 points profit could essentially be written as 3.65 points profit?
Good luck although I do believe the key to football betting is in-play... I do love waiting on good opportunities where home favourites go a goal down and you can lay the away side at between odds of 2.00 and 3.00... you can get very good winning runs going.
Waiting around 20-25 minutes and laying either the 0-0 HT score market or backing over 1.5 goals can be profitable as well if you fancy goals, however its all very subjective as it comes down to personal choice as plenty games end with less than 2 goals.
Laying away sides up 0-2 at HT whereby the home team have a good previous record against said side is also an angle I explore... don't have any historic results to go by but I very much take game stats as a guide.
Good luck mate
Good luck although I do believe the key to football betting is in-play... I do love waiting on good opportunities where home favourites go a goal down and you can lay the away side at between odds of 2.00 and 3.00... you can get very good winning runs going.
Waiting around 20-25 minutes and laying either the 0-0 HT score market or backing over 1.5 goals can be profitable as well if you fancy goals, however its all very subjective as it comes down to personal choice as plenty games end with less than 2 goals.
Laying away sides up 0-2 at HT whereby the home team have a good previous record against said side is also an angle I explore... don't have any historic results to go by but I very much take game stats as a guide.
Good luck mate
S
StuBoy10 Stake plan for this thread is level stakes i bet 10 pts on each selection so of course 1pt would be 3.65 level stake profit or 100pts per bet 365pts profit and so on I do level stake as its easy to follow and if you make a profit at level stake i believe you are winning half the battle
D djb38 this is how i think if a team has had 21 shots and 11 on target does that make them a good team ? good for creating the chances bad for not taking them. Are they unlucky or is this a running problem. Look at this table
right above is some pretty useless stats so i don't mind you seeing
Rosenborg are 1st in the league and avg 12 shots a goal with 5 on target there shots/shots of target ratio is 41% and strike rate of 30%
Stromsgodset avg 13.2 shots 5.8 on target shot/shots on target 43% and strike rate 24% they sit 13th so the team sitting in 13th avg more shots sot hit the target more often and are only 6% behide on strike rate.
attacking stats are for home and away as you can see difference between teams are so small
are the shots they are taking from good areas ? remember a pea roller from 45 yard if it goes on target counts the same as a shot from inside the 6 yard box.
Yet you could have a team creating good chances only shots inside the 6 yard box but missing the target.
I cant tell you how to bet nor will I never say this way is the right way and that is the wrong way
hope this helps
D djb38 this is how i think if a team has had 21 shots and 11 on target does that make them a good team ? good for creating the chances bad for not taking them. Are they unlucky or is this a running problem. Look at this table
right above is some pretty useless stats so i don't mind you seeing
Rosenborg are 1st in the league and avg 12 shots a goal with 5 on target there shots/shots of target ratio is 41% and strike rate of 30%Stromsgodset avg 13.2 shots 5.8 on target shot/shots on target 43% and strike rate 24% they sit 13th so the team sitting in 13th avg more shots sot hit the target more often and are only 6% behide on strike rate.
attacking stats are for home and away as you can see difference between teams are so small
are the shots they are taking from good areas ? remember a pea roller from 45 yard if it goes on target counts the same as a shot from inside the 6 yard box.
Yet you could have a team creating good chances only shots inside the 6 yard box but missing the target.
I cant tell you how to bet nor will I never say this way is the right way and that is the wrong way
hope this helps
footysystems
Gelding
SOT alone would be wasting your time as like you see can be from anywhere and gets near the target but using all the stats together can be very profitable just time consuming
newmas2112
Newbie
Not been on here a while but I saw your thread and decided to have a look.
Very interesting and thank you for all your time and effort.
Hopefully I may be able to have some input (health permitting) in the coming weeks.
Very interesting and thank you for all your time and effort.
Hopefully I may be able to have some input (health permitting) in the coming weeks.
footysystems
Gelding
S StuBoy10 Stake plan for this thread is level stakes i bet 10 pts on each selection so of course 1pt would be 3.65 level stake profit or 100pts per bet 365pts profit and so on I do level stake as its easy to follow and if you make a profit at level stake i believe you are winning half the battle
D djb38 this is how i think if a team has had 21 shots and 11 on target does that make them a good team ? good for creating the chances bad for not taking them. Are they unlucky or is this a running problem. Look at this table
View attachment 47481
right above is some pretty useless stats so i don't mind you seeing
Stromsgodset avg 13.2 shots 5.8 on target shot/shots on target 43% and strike rate 24% they sit 13th so the team sitting in 13th avg more shots sot hit the target more often and are only 6% behide on strike rate.
attacking stats are for home and away as you can see difference between teams are so small
are the shots they are taking from good areas ? remember a pea roller from 45 yard if it goes on target counts the same as a shot from inside the 6 yard box.
Yet you could have a team creating good chances only shots inside the 6 yard box but missing the target.
I cant tell you how to bet nor will I never say this way is the right way and that is the wrong way
hope this helps
The more i thought i about this more far from reality this is. Ok lets take averages what do they mean ?? you can use them on context is a team ahead of average InPlay ??? using a little bit of brain power its not hard to work out. Pre match football betting is now a thing of the past the odds and the odds makers have seen to that. There is no value left in pre match better there are far to many odd compliers and far too many computer programs to beat us pre match. The only way the football punter can make money is in play and you have to be good to beat the odds inplay too or you have to be able to read a game ?? its about what your getting odds wise using the stats like you have mention above to "pretty useless stats" well using them stats myself and my betting partner made 77 points the last month to one point level stakes
mandkay
Mare
Imo for what its worth stats are there to be broken and each game has to be assessed individually and the only way is inplay. Have pretty much wasted 4/5 years looking at stats based betting and cannot say that any one market has returned a consistent profit. Forget teams to win if you want consistency look at goals markets, many a time have I seen a team with say 6-0 sot in the first half only to concede first and many a time have I backed that team to win the first half at attractive odds rather than going for the easier and safer option and taking the over 0.5.
Pre match football betting is now a thing of the past the odds and the odds makers have seen to that. There is no value left in pre match better there are far to many odd compliers and far too many computer programs to beat us pre match.
2003/2004
top 19 odds with over round 14 years ago
last seasons
top 19 from last season
over round is infact down in 14 years
Now i could say now is better time then any to bet pre-match also like I've said before the odds the odds compilers set don't stay for long its the punters that set the odds and thats the case even more in-play. I'm not sure of the overround in-play but I know for a fact when WILLIAM HILL first set the odds inplay the over round goes up
2003/2004
top 19 odds with over round 14 years ago
last seasons
top 19 from last season
over round is infact down in 14 years
Now i could say now is better time then any to bet pre-match also like I've said before the odds the odds compilers set don't stay for long its the punters that set the odds and thats the case even more in-play. I'm not sure of the overround in-play but I know for a fact when WILLIAM HILL first set the odds inplay the over round goes up
Keegans head
Filly
I can see the positives from both sides of pre match or in play from these discussions
FootballBettingPredictor actuals prices up games pre match that he feels represents value in those odds which will enable him to make profits long term and is comfortable with this . I also bet pre match when I feel I'm getting a price above what the compilers are giving . I can see the merits of in play if it pays for you but I'm a long way from being knowledgeable enough to bet this way but each to there own . I must also add it's nice to get lots of opinions on a football thread as it's certainly got me thinking about how I look at the games .
FootballBettingPredictor actuals prices up games pre match that he feels represents value in those odds which will enable him to make profits long term and is comfortable with this . I also bet pre match when I feel I'm getting a price above what the compilers are giving . I can see the merits of in play if it pays for you but I'm a long way from being knowledgeable enough to bet this way but each to there own . I must also add it's nice to get lots of opinions on a football thread as it's certainly got me thinking about how I look at the games .
Keegans head would be boring if we all agreed Gambling is easy in the fact its all about probability thats it. flip a coin we know its 50/50 even money someone offers you tails at 10/1 you bloody take it lol. But it could land heads 10 times in a row does that mean that the bet was bad ? you have lost 10 in a row you would question your betting as you are losing yet you are in fact getting great value. I think a lot of people do this they come up with a system it works short term and they believe they have the golden egg. It can also work the other way around you can start losing early on and give up on the idea that in fact if you stayed with it long term would be profitable.
Its interesting hearing how people go about gambling
BRAZIL: Série A - Round 7
Vitoria - Botafogo RJ
14.06.2017 23:30
Selection
Draw or Botafogo RJ @ 1.66
As I post this the Home team are 2.25 to win the odds were set @ 2.45 Home Draw 3.00 Away 3.10 them odds would suggest that the bookmakers see the away team ranked 8 places above the home side. The punters have spoken and backed the home team in 2.26 The current odds have the sides ranked 5 places I believe the gap is a lot wider even if I'm incorrect I see more then 5 places between these sides.
Vitoria - Botafogo RJ
14.06.2017 23:30
Selection
Draw or Botafogo RJ @ 1.66
As I post this the Home team are 2.25 to win the odds were set @ 2.45 Home Draw 3.00 Away 3.10 them odds would suggest that the bookmakers see the away team ranked 8 places above the home side. The punters have spoken and backed the home team in 2.26 The current odds have the sides ranked 5 places I believe the gap is a lot wider even if I'm incorrect I see more then 5 places between these sides.
Attachments
footysystems
Gelding
Like you say each there own as long as we make money 
I for one have been around football for many years and bet for a second living so i am not an inexperienced mug punter
I for one have been around football for many years and bet for a second living so i am not an inexperienced mug punter
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dave58
Administrator
footysystems
Gelding
I am actually Dave lol no only kidding but make my second living betting from football lol.... Been a long day sunbathing
