Thanks for putting in the time and for sharing how you arrive at you selections .
It's very interesting to me As I too try to form a book although I never use the league table as a guide as this could be misleading as later in the season there is form in there from maybe 9 months ago .
I think the compilers maybe use current form along with other factors to set there odds and this maybe why the disparity.
It's a great thread you have here and I'll be following it all through the UK close season
Hi
Keegans head thanks for continuing to follow my thread and joining in and I'm glad you are enjoying it. From the table's above it may look like from the 'Pos' table that that means league position but that is not the case. Maybe I should call it rank for ranking lets take the Brazil league.
Last night match between Palmeiras vs Flumunense was 16th vs 5th Palmeiras had only won 1 game from 5 and Flumunense had only lost 1 now take a look at how I ranked them.
as you can see my ranking for Palmeiras at the moment is 1 and Fluminense is 13 which differs from the league table these ranking can change as the season goes ago in the case of these 2 teams at this present time I'm happy with them. Lets take a look at a couple more
Avai 17th league table ranked 2oth by me vs Flamengo 15th league table ranked 5th by me. Now maybe at some point in the season it may show my rank and the league position as the same which is fine. The rank is there to tell me the difference between the 2 sides now I wanna show you something different
its not a case of just someone saying right if team a is ranked 5 higher then team b then they have 55% no matter what league they are in if that was the case my job would be so much easier it takes me between 1/2 weeks in order to add one league to my database. Showing above is the difference in each country with home advantage not a great set of explains as they are close
but I'm sure you can see its not a case of one shoe fits all.
Now for the odds compilers I've covered this once before but let me go into a little detail. I know roughly how the odds compilers come to there odds on football I have no bloody clue how they do it on horse racing but on football I'm 90% sure how they do it. Please remember that you don't see the odds the odds compilers make for every look as the weight of money changes them.
Lets say I'm a bookmaker and I have a little stall and I'm only taking bets on heads or tails I'll set the odds at 1.90 for each side the the ture odds is 2.00 50% but I wanna include over round so I make money no matter the result of the flick of the coin. Money is coming in for tails so much money infact I need money on heads to balance the books. I have two options I can shorten odds on tails and increase odds on heads (which is the simple and most common option) or I can start a rumour that I will be using a double headed coin
and hope it spreads around as the punters will pile on heads.
Now you might be thinking that is stupid but punters bet by information if they hear from a source that players are missing from team A then they pile on. Bookmakers use social media are on radio shows so all they can to sell to you bad bets. I'm sure we all know this happens some punters follow money they see odds shortening and join in piling money on.
Right back to my point bookmakers main job is to try and balance the books so they win no matter the outcome they feed you information you go on there websites and will see form tables head to head stats missing players all sorts. Why because they have made the odds for the weight of money they believe will go on each outcome add in there overround and they win no matter the outcome.
lets take yesterday brazil game and lets say I'm the bookmaker first of all I work out my odds which were
So my starting point is 1.55 3.75 6.5 now I must predict how the punter will gamble on this game I'll look at form as alot of punters do that home form away form team news. Now Palmeiras have only won 1 game so far Fluminense 3 games Fluminense in better form so i go through my list. Looking at it I predict the punter may be tempted to back the away side i don't wanna give them a fair price so ill give them 3.6 looking at the stats I don't predict the punter will go for the home team at 1.55 I put them at 1.91. Now when money comes for the home side I think oh shit lol.
Predicting punters behaviour I believe the odds compilers do now a days you have everything even at bet365 you have a little pitch telling you where the ball is and how many shots on and off target they have had. All this is there for THEM not you. This is what I believe happens if you believe it to be different then please say I'm not saying I'm right or wrong but would be interested in everyone's view.
As for my odds I try to predict the chance of each outcome happening I don't need to balance the books or predict what punters are going to do infact its the punters that give me the good prices sometimes like yesterday in south korea the odds compilers opened up the home team @2.00 the punters then smashed that all the way into 1.57 in the end now I believed even the 2.00 was to short.
sorry for the long post I hope I have covered the questions asked This is a open forum so please don't worry if you disagree with me
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FootballBettingPredictor some real positives to take from that with sound reasoning .
