cosmicsports
Colt
We all know that our prediction powers in football are limited, when it comes to defeating the bookies.
It's a matter of degree.
I 'm not discouraging people from trying new ideas but it's a difficult task.
The first prediction program I wrote using a scale of strength indices for the teams was in the year 1984 with the Spectrum ZX:
That was fairly useful.
As I live in Greece I used it as a help for the football pools.
There was no fixed odds betting those days in Greece but in the late eighties I made some connections with Cyprus and I was placing some bets there. The bookies made their appearance in Greece unofficially in 1994, when Greece qualified for the USA world cup. Then officially in the year 2000.
In parallel with this old software app of mine I was using another method.
It was to make the pools systems proposed by the newspapers into a poll by adding them together.
That too was not bad.
Eventually you know what was the best method ?
It was the "reinforced poll". I graduated the various contributors to the newspapers (who were pools agents mostly), discarded those who were not performing well and kept the "top ten".
That was the best method but now I cannot use it because this old format with pools system suggestions no longer exists, as the pools were phased out. I am also finding it difficult to collocate the various tipsters, since they give tips for different matches.
Now the bookies.
The bookies too have done some serious research in order to compile their odds.
They have collaborated with universities.
Among those were Nottingham university, Belfast, Catagna in Italy and the Greek NTUA also some years ago. Maybe more universities.
Their purpose is of course to give as accurate odds as possible so their take off percentage has the efect of making us all losers.
So it's hard lines.
It would be hard lines even if the betting was mutuel and our opponent was not the bookies but the collective intelligence of the public.
But the bookies also have weaknesses.
Their weakness is they attach high importance on the so called "heavy shirts".
For example these days we know that the "heavy shirt" in trouble is Manchester City - you bet against them and you get paid.
In seasons past it was other teams and the world is big, some similar story to that of City surely exists someplace else as we speak now !
There are also teams that all of a sudden become strong and those too pay if we back them.
How to produce an angle - proposal to the forum
----------------------------------------------------------
Create a new discussion area, for example "the UK betting forum observatory", with this precise content and purpose. Whoever knows something happening in England - France - Portugal ... will inform the others in that space.
It's a matter of degree.
I 'm not discouraging people from trying new ideas but it's a difficult task.
The first prediction program I wrote using a scale of strength indices for the teams was in the year 1984 with the Spectrum ZX:
That was fairly useful.
As I live in Greece I used it as a help for the football pools.
There was no fixed odds betting those days in Greece but in the late eighties I made some connections with Cyprus and I was placing some bets there. The bookies made their appearance in Greece unofficially in 1994, when Greece qualified for the USA world cup. Then officially in the year 2000.
In parallel with this old software app of mine I was using another method.
It was to make the pools systems proposed by the newspapers into a poll by adding them together.
That too was not bad.
Eventually you know what was the best method ?
It was the "reinforced poll". I graduated the various contributors to the newspapers (who were pools agents mostly), discarded those who were not performing well and kept the "top ten".
That was the best method but now I cannot use it because this old format with pools system suggestions no longer exists, as the pools were phased out. I am also finding it difficult to collocate the various tipsters, since they give tips for different matches.
Now the bookies.
The bookies too have done some serious research in order to compile their odds.
They have collaborated with universities.
Among those were Nottingham university, Belfast, Catagna in Italy and the Greek NTUA also some years ago. Maybe more universities.
Their purpose is of course to give as accurate odds as possible so their take off percentage has the efect of making us all losers.
So it's hard lines.
It would be hard lines even if the betting was mutuel and our opponent was not the bookies but the collective intelligence of the public.
But the bookies also have weaknesses.
Their weakness is they attach high importance on the so called "heavy shirts".
For example these days we know that the "heavy shirt" in trouble is Manchester City - you bet against them and you get paid.
In seasons past it was other teams and the world is big, some similar story to that of City surely exists someplace else as we speak now !
There are also teams that all of a sudden become strong and those too pay if we back them.
How to produce an angle - proposal to the forum
----------------------------------------------------------
Create a new discussion area, for example "the UK betting forum observatory", with this precise content and purpose. Whoever knows something happening in England - France - Portugal ... will inform the others in that space.
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