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Flat 2023 system test

greyabbey

greyabbey

Colt
Hi,

Gonna give a new system thread a go. I'll update results as often as I can. Likely averaging 3-4 qualifiers a day (obviously none some days and many more on others).

I'll record at 1pt win to Betfair SP and if I can Tote SP. Happy to discuss criteria privately with regular posters.

Today
Pontefract 15:50 - Artisan Dancer
Windsor 19:45 - Villalobos
Windsor 21:00 - Alazwar
 
Just a bit on what I might hope to see from this.

It's a bit of a different system to what I might usually look at. Rather than years of data to back up an idea, this is something which is specific to this year, and some of the recent changes made by the BHA having what I think might be an underestimated effect on certain horses.

On a scale of 1-10 of confidence I have that it will be a system worth following, I'd probably say a 4...

Prior to testing there were around 260 bets this year, with a win rate of 17% and a ROI to Betfair SP of 40% (A/E of 1.3). The longest losing run so far is 25.
 
Carlisle 17:45 Langholm
Leicester 17:50 Eagle Eyed Freddie
Carlisle 18:52 Astapor
Nottingham 19:12 Hello Me
Carlisle 19:52 Overrule
 
A poor start... albeit plenty of placed horses so far.

Results so far below (I'm not bothering with Tote SP - it's ultimately not as good as Betfair SP and a faff to collect). I will include Betfair Place SP purely out of intrigue. I'm not the biggest fan of it as liquidity is so low and results therefore variable, but it might stem losing runs while still having a return.

Win results
Bets: 27
Winners: 2
P/L: -18
ROI: -67%
A/E: 0.63

Place results
Bets: 27
Winners: 10
P/L: -1.64
ROI: -7%
A/E: 1.12
 
Newmarket 13:50 Knockbrex
York 14:05 Gweedore
Ascot 16:00 Sumo Sam
Newmarket 16:45 Street Kid
Chester 19:30 Box To Box
Chester 20:40 Red Walls
 
Updated results below (Betfair's commission is reflected in the ROI). Plenty of them placing and running well at least.

Win results
Bets: 37
Winners: 4
P/L: -18
ROI: -48%
A/E: 0.81

Place results
Bets: 38
Winners: 17
P/L: 3.7
ROI: 8%
A/E: 1.24
 
York 14:00 Isla Kai
Newmarket 14:15 Glorious Angel
Chester 15:17 Seantrabh
Chester 15:52 Mancini
Newmarket 16:00 The Gatekeeper
 
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