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Flat 2023 system test

Bath 15:00 Princely
Catterick 15:52 Quercus
Catterick 16:57 Mrs Bagerran
Yarmouth 17:35 Ideal Guest
Bath 17:40 Villalobos
Yarmouth 19:40 Foreseeable Future
Yarmouth 20:10 Doctor Mozart
 
Haydock 15:15 Hour By Hour
Haydock 15:50 Natchez Trace
Pontefract 19:15 Ventura Rascal
Pontefract 19:50 Mattice
Newmarket 20:05 Sweet Harmony
Hamilton 20:15 Betweenthesticks
Pontefract 20:25 Night Life
Pontefract 21:00 Shines Ambition
 
Beverley 19:30 How Bizarre
Beverley 20:00 Bit Of A Quirke

Will update results this week. I think it's a little bit down on place SP and quite a bit down (though less than previously) on win SP.
 
Musselburgh 15:40 Gone

I've updated the results below and I thought it would be a good time to say a bit about what the idea behind the system actually is.

The idea: A few writers and analysts (e.g. see Paul Fitzgerald on Twitter) have tracked how front runners have generally done better this year, and how one explanation might be that the new whip rules might make it harder for horses further back to make ground in the closing stages.
The system: Backing consistent front runners in a race (based on run comments) where there are no other similarly qualifying horses.

Summary of results (commission taken off the ROI)
  • The ROI is getting a bit better but still down on the win side and the A/E is poor.
  • Largely breaking even on the place side and a good A/E and strike rate.
  • The horses are largely running as I thought they would. 'Made all' or 'prominent early' are the most common run comments, and they are holding on well to place. But the win record and ROI and A/E is still poor.
  • I'm sticking with it for now (probably until the end of the season) as in betting bank terms the drawdown is still low and they're running as I hoped I might.
Bets 76
Return 49pts (win); 75pts (place)
Wins 8 (10% SR)
Place 30 (40% SR)
P/L -27 (win); -1 (place)
ROI -36% (win); -3% (place)
A/E 0.87 (win); 1.15 (place)
 
Front runners tend to do best on tracks with very sharp or sharp bends .
It might be worth looking at those tracks and obviously not the races run over a straight course .
The logic is harder to catch up if running fast round a bend .
 
Thanks paul paul - I agree and I've one or two systems I use for specific tracks (I quite like looking at sprints on downhill tracks like Epsom or Leicester). I'm specifically keen here to see if the whip rules make a difference this year.
 
York 14:40 Hyperfocus
York 16:35 Yorkindness
Newmarket 16:45 Hey Lyla
Newmarket 17:20 Han Solo Berger
Windsor 18:00 Abate
Salisbury 18:15 Villalobos
Windsor 19:30 Airshow
 
Yarmouth 14:25 Ideal Guest
Goodwood 14:50 Pride Of America
Yarmouth 15:35 Mukha Magic
Yarmouth 16:10 Flower Of Thunder
Beverley 16:20 Jojo Rabbit
Goodwood 17:35 Glorious Angel
 
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