Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Paul Brown · Friday at 12:49 PM

2.15 Redcar

	2.15			alter betting near off
No.	Horse	Weight Lbs Diff	+	Forecast Odds	=	Bowers Rating	Status
1	Jesmond Dawn	0	+	8.8	=	8.8	RETAINED
2	Valentine Catcher	1	+	19	=	20	Borderline Cut-off
3	Super Hit	2	+	7.8	=	9.8	RETAINED
4	Looks Fantastic	2	+	34	=	36	ELIMINATED (High Score)
5	Mayo County	3	+	4.6	=	7.6	RETAINED
6	Stoneywell	3	+	29	=	32	ELIMINATED (High Score)
7	Reginald Charles	4	+	11	=	15	RETAINED
8	Mecca's Symphony	5	+	29	=	34	Borderline Cut-off
9	Palmarian	5	+	12.5	=	17.5	RETAINED
10	Travis	6	+	24	=	30	ELIMINATED (High Score)
11	Front Gunner	6	+	9.4	=	15.4	RETAINED
12	Dancing With Drums	6	+	9.8	=	15.8	RETAINED
13	Operation Gimcrack	7	+	65	=	72	ELIMINATED (High Score)
14	Raja Charger	19	+	170	=	189	ELIMINATED (High Score)

Paul Brown · Friday at 12:58 PM

The Full Field Matrix
	rework betting pre off
No.	Horse	Weight	Weight Lbs Diff	+	Forecast Odds	=	Bowers Rating	Status
1	City Of Poets	10st 3lb	0	+	4.33	=	4.33	RETAINED
2	Theoryofeverything	10st 2lb	1	+	7	=	8	RETAINED
3	Classic Encounter	10st 0lb	3	+	4.33	=	7.33	RETAINED
4	Mehmas Champion	9st 13lb	4	+	26	=	30	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
5	New Image	9st 13lb	4	+	9	=	13	RETAINED
6	Nikovo	9st 12lb	7	+	6	=	13	RETAINED
7	Milteye	9st 11lb	8	+	8	=	16	RETAINED
8	Regalian	9st 11lb	6	+	21	=	27	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
9	Double Parked	9st 6lb	11	+	10	=	21	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
10	Fiery Damsel	9st 4lb	13	+	8	=	21	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
11	Empirestateofmind	9st 2lb	15	+	15	=	30	ELIMINATED (Odds Filter)

doomster · Friday at 3:04 PM

Paul Brown

Probably a question that has been covered plenty of times, but is the 3yo WFA considered in the Bowers calculation ?

Paul Brown · Friday at 3:33 PM

doomster said:
Paul Brown

Probably a question that has been covered plenty of times, but is the 3yo WFA considered in the Bowers calculation ?

Sorry I'm just a beginner with bowers. There are a couple of major contributions to Bowers. Inner Sanctum. Has one discusion from 2024 see Chesham

Kraldrew · Friday at 4:01 PM

look at the race heading in Racing Post 3yr olds get 10lbs

Olwenba · Friday at 4:50 PM

5.00 Ascot.

My bowers shortlist for this one and i do like the chances of Seet tbh. Its a 3yo only race so plenty in here with any amount of improvement and a race i would usually avoid but the fact Ryan Moore is jocked up on handicap debut for gosden. Their record this year is 7 wins from 12 runners.

Olwenba · Friday at 5:15 PM

Olwenba said:
5.00 Ascot.

My bowers shortlist for this one and i do like the chances of Seet tbh. Its a 3yo only race so plenty in here with any amount of improvement and a race i would usually avoid but the fact Ryan Moore is jocked up on handicap debut for gosden. Their record this year is 7 wins from 12 runners.

Avoid anything I mention

Paul Brown · Friday at 5:20 PM

Olwenba said:
Avoid anything I mention

It was a hard race for me so I backed 4 after looking at my ratings. Managed the winner but it won the smallest amount due to rushing.

Paul Brown · Friday at 6:15 PM

The Full Field Matrix (Sorted Lowest to Highest Bowers Rating)

No.	Horse	Weight	Weight Lbs Diff	+	Forecast Odds	=	Bowers Rating	Status
6	Bacio	9st 5lb	4	+	3.75	=	7.75	RETAINED
1	Dickensian	9st 9lb	0	+	12	=	12	RETAINED
13	Jazl	9st 0lb	9	+	8	=	17	RETAINED
18	Gold Digger	8st 13lb	10	+	7.5	=	17.5	RETAINED
2	Moojeed	9st 7lb	2	+	17	=	19	RETAINED
14	Westport	9st 0lb	9	+	11	=	20	RETAINED
11	Simplify	9st 1lb	8	+	15	=	23	RETAINED
27	Starmade	8st 7lb	16	+	9	=	25	RETAINED
17	Ipanema Queen	8st 13lb	10	+	15	=	25	RETAINED
5	Sirius A	9st 5lb	4	+	21	=	25	RETAINED
26	Stargazed	8st 8lb	15	+	17	=	32	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
23	Sovereign Spell	8st 9lb	14	+	19	=	33	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
20	Calico Blue	8st 12lb	11	+	23	=	34	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
19	Black Star Boy	8st 12lb	11	+	26	=	37	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
25	Cherry Baker	8st 8lb	15	+	23	=	38	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
21	Miss Yechance	8st 10lb	13	+	26	=	39	ELIMINATED (50% Cut)
24	Tricky Tel	8st 9lb	14	+	29	=	43	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
12	May Angel	9st 0lb	9	+	29	=	38	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
4	Ten Carat Harry	9st 6lb	3	+	29	=	32	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
7	Sandal's Song	9st 4lb	5	+	34	=	39	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
3	Revival Power	9st 7lb	2	+	51	=	53	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
8	Ghost Mode	9st 1lb	8	+	67	=	75	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
15	Gentle George	9st 0lb	9	+	67	=	76	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
22	Dazzling Haze	8st 10lb	13	+	67	=	80	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
10	Baker Blue	9st 1lb	8	+	81	=	89	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
28	Zelaina	8st 7lb	16	+	81	=	97	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)
16	Exclamation	8st 13lb	10	+	151	=	161	ELIMINATED (Odds > 27.0)

Paul Brown · Friday at 7:28 PM

The Full Field Matrix (Sorted Lowest to Highest Bowers Rating)	7.45
									Mine
No.	Horse	Weight	Weight Lbs Diff	+	Forecast Odds	=	Bowers Rating	Status
12	Fort Rock	9st 6lb	12	+	4	=	16	RETAINED	***
8	Stem	9st 13lb	5	+	5	=	10	RETAINED
2	Spanish Voice	10st 4lb	0	+	7.5	=	7.5	RETAINED
13	Synners Kid	9st 5lb	13	+	6.5	=	19.5	RETAINED	***
7	Exposure	10st 0lb	4	+	10	=	14	RETAINED
16	Magnatura	9st 0lb	16	+	12	=	28	RETAINED
1	Sterling Knight	10st 4lb	0	+	12	=	12	The 50% Cut-Off Line
14	Elan D'or	9st 5lb	13	+	13	=	26	ELIMINATED (Odds 13)
6	Spell Master	10st 1lb	3	+	15	=	18	ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
15	Loz Vegas	9st 4lb	14	+	15	=	29	ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
5	Dark Tornado	10st 2lb	2	+	19	=	21	ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
3	Angel Hunter	10st 2lb	2	+	21	=	23	ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
9	Mythical Guest	9st 10lb	8	+	23	=	31	ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)

DuckandDive · Saturday at 9:31 AM

doomster said:
Paul Brown

Probably a question that has been covered plenty of times, but is the 3yo WFA considered in the Bowers calculation ?

Not that I can see. It just takes the difference from all the runners when compared against the top rated OR that = 0, then adds in the odds.

DuckandDive · Saturday at 10:28 AM

Re-designed the sheet slightly.

Adrestia @5/1+ dropping from a Class 2, and within the value range, looks okay today.
Both, Far Above The Law & American Bay, up in class, need to improve.

---

Leodis · Saturday at 12:31 PM

DuckandDive said:
Re-designed the sheet slightly.

Adrestia @5/1+ dropping from a Class 2, and within the value range, looks okay today.
Both, Far Above The Law & American Bay, up in class, need to improve.
View attachment 168678

The lightly raced, unexposed Night Storm - installed as second fav, makes for a race to swerve I think.

Kraldrew · Saturday at 12:44 PM

Adriesta	100	102		102
Alligator Alley	100	101		101	158 break
Night Storm	100	100		100	149 break
Ziggys Triton	100	102		102
Far Above The Law	100	98	7lb claim	105
Spring Is Sprung	100	100		100
Im Next	100	100		100
American Bay	100	101		101
Muker	100	103	3lb claim	106

Leodis · Saturday at 12:45 PM

The shortlist

Adrestia 7 (points clear from next on list)
--------------
Far Above The Law [0.5]
Night Storm 4.4

Kraldrew · Saturday at 12:48 PM

Muker heads the ratings before and after claims however his recent form is atrocious
Far Above The Law is 2nd rated but only with his jockeys claim
Probably best left to Adriesta Though Ziggys Triton is on the premises also no bet race for me

Kraldrew · Saturday at 12:56 PM

Paul Brown said:
The Full Field Matrix (Sorted Lowest to Highest Bowers Rating) 7.45
Mine
No. Horse Weight Weight Lbs Diff + Forecast Odds = Bowers Rating Status
12
Fort Rock 9st 6lb
12
+
4
=
16
RETAINED ***
8
Stem 9st 13lb
5
+
5
=
10
RETAINED
2
Spanish Voice 10st 4lb
0
+
7.5
=
7.5
RETAINED
13
Synners Kid 9st 5lb
13
+
6.5
=
19.5
RETAINED ***
7
Exposure 10st 0lb
4
+
10
=
14
RETAINED
16
Magnatura 9st 0lb
16
+
12
=
28
RETAINED
1
Sterling Knight 10st 4lb
0
+
12
=
12
The 50% Cut-Off Line
14
Elan D'or 9st 5lb
13
+
13
=
26
ELIMINATED (Odds 13)
6
Spell Master 10st 1lb
3
+
15
=
18
ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
15
Loz Vegas 9st 4lb
14
+
15
=
29
ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
5
Dark Tornado 10st 2lb
2
+
19
=
21
ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
3
Angel Hunter 10st 2lb
2
+
21
=
23
ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)
9
Mythical Guest 9st 10lb
8
+
23
=
31
ELIMINATED (Odds > 13)

The 3 yr olds get 6lb WFA

Kraldrew · Saturday at 12:56 PM

Weight for age 3yo from 4yo+ 6lb
its in the race Conditions

TheBluesBrother · 2026-06-21T09:05:55+0100

2:56 Brighton.

Still playing around with Copilot to see what I can come up with.

Back in 2021 Night Bear was rated 82 runs off 55 today.

Paul Brown · 2026-06-21T10:08:54+0100

TheBluesBrother said:
2:56 Brighton.

Still playing around with Copilot to see what I can come up with.

Back in 2021 Night Bear was rated 82 runs off 55 today.

View attachment 168709

View attachment 168710

I have a high rating for Power of Prayer on my ratings but I also have a high rating for Sarangpur, which leads me to thing the handicapper has missed something or I need to adjust my rating for this horse downward. I also rate Koko Blue in the top 3. Please note these are my raings and not Bowers

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

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