Eric Bowers narrowing the field
- Thread starter Olwenba
- Start date
Yeah, using the live odds nearer the off was another way to reduce the shortlist further. If you had the time before each race then that would cut out one or two more from each race aswell as form study of course
mlmrob
Sire
You can narrow the field further by using the Prize Money from the last two races and the odds of the horse in its last race.
Your 11.55
The orange highlighted cells are those that have a have run for Prize Money higher than todays in their last two races.
In the LR prize column you will see four pink cells, these are the horses who run for the most prize money last time, in this case I highlight the highest three.
In the LR odds column, the three highlighted in pink are the horses with the three lowest odds last time out.
Only two horses were highlighted in the three columns.
Your 11.55
The orange highlighted cells are those that have a have run for Prize Money higher than todays in their last two races.
In the LR prize column you will see four pink cells, these are the horses who run for the most prize money last time, in this case I highlight the highest three.
In the LR odds column, the three highlighted in pink are the horses with the three lowest odds last time out.
Only two horses were highlighted in the three columns.
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Thanks for this, another interesting angle that I will try, may also add best sp on the going.
Thanks
mlmrob Once I have a shortlist I'm still looking at ways to find just one selection to go at in a race (if there is one)something I've tried using is the RPR and average RPR of the last 3 and combining the 2 for a master rating. The RPR used as overall form and average of the last 3 used as more recent form. The logic behind that is another confirmation of the Bower idea of overall/recent form. Had mixed success with that so far but certainly worth delving into the prize money aspect and LTO odds.Yeh I really thought it was going to hang on, so much for the favs!
Nice 33/1 plCe
Bad day using my Bower stats,hope I’m doing it right
Can I just check how you do it and compare with what I do,I’m going wrong somewhere. 10 or more runners, ( I don’t bother with dividing field by 2 ans checking said horse is within a few pounds of top weight, is that important?) - score horses with points on weight difference from top weight, ( using weight or same process using OR)- take sp and do the same giving points rating on difference from shortest sp- add both together and lower score is best. Thanks.
I think my mistake was not taking the sp and giving ratings from shortest upwards. I just added sp to weight or OR RATING.
2 to look at today...
| time | track | horse | Bower Rating |
13:10:00 | Navan | Shannon Royale (IRE) | 7 |
13:10:00 | Navan | Carnfunnock (IRE) | 14 |
13:10:00 | Navan | Rioga Choice (IRE) | 16 |
13:10:00 | Navan | Harvard Guy | 19 |
13:10:00 | Navan | Lord Erskine (IRE) | 19 |
13:10:00 | Navan | Clarens (IRE) | 22 |
14:10:00 | Carlisle | Prairie Dancer (IRE) | 4 |
14:10:00 | Carlisle | Howlingmadmurdock (IRE) | 5 |
14:10:00 | Carlisle | Ramo (FR) | 20 |
14:10:00 | Carlisle | Omar Maretti (IRE) | 24 |
14:10:00 | Carlisle | Schalke | 25 |
I use the OR and timeform betting forecast. Difference in OR from the top rated then add that too the forecast odds. I.e. the top OR in a race on say 100, horse A has an official rating of 98. 100-98 = 2 then the betting forecast odds are 5/1, so 2+5 =7 that would be the Bower Rating. Do that for the whole race, try eliminate around 50% of the field, that's the basics of it.
I also use my own preferences as to races to look at and have added a couple other tweaks recently which I'm trialing.
Only the 1 for the afternoon NH meeting, might have time to look at the evening card later but for now...
| time | track | horse | Bower Rating |
14:25:00 | Musselburgh | Lihyan (IRE) | 4 |
14:25:00 | Musselburgh | Darkest Day (IRE) | 11 |
14:25:00 | Musselburgh | Copper Fox | 12 |
14:25:00 | Musselburgh | We Gotta Getaway (IRE) | 20 |
Back with 2 more shortlist's today...
| time | track | horse | Bower Rating |
15:10:00 | Fakenham | Copshill Lad (IRE) | 3 |
15:10:00 | Fakenham | Edison Kent (IRE) | 8 |
15:10:00 | Fakenham | The Wise Traveller (IRE) | 14 |
15:10:00 | Fakenham | Hillfinch | 23 |
15:10:00 | Fakenham | William Ewart (IRE) | 24 |
15:50:00 | Wincanton | Casts Tasha (IRE) | 4 |
15:50:00 | Wincanton | Edeiffs Rock | 7 |
15:50:00 | Wincanton | My Lady Phoenix | 9 |
15:50:00 | Wincanton | Mairis Icon | 12 |
15:50:00 | Wincanton | Miss Fedora (IRE) | 12 |