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Dynamic Methodology

markfinn said:
Thank yo O Outlander

So not the Masters of the Universe they are portrayed as - How have been tempted and have wasted countless hours days weeks moths years and fortunes trying to replicate a myth ?

No one knows all
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markfinn markfinn don't despair in you quest for the holy grail completely, I’m guessing at the numbers here but say for example HK tote rake/takeout at the time was 12% and 20% exotic bets (I think now it’s 17.5% and 25%).
Say all Bentners methods produced a loss of 6% and he was being rebated 10%(all guesses)
Then transpose this to betfair in the modern day when there are 100% books and some people are lucky enough to pay just 2% commission on winning markets, Bentner must have been beating a 100% market quite comfortally, he had no chance of beating a 12% rake but theoretically he/ anyone that sophisticated can beat betfair markets, I’m sure many do. But the commission is the key, the commission will beat even a good punter, and if you become successful they will add more charges to diminish your chances . Of course HK racing has much less randomness than any other jurisdiction, 2 courses only set number of trainers and jockeys, 99% handicaps, full transparency, stewards that don’t stand any nonsense, it is infinitely straighter than U.K. or Irish racing, every interaction with a vet catalogued for every punter too see, every trial or workout detailed and recorded, multiple bleeders banned from racing immediately , body weights of every horse in every race recorded , all sectional and timing data much more accurate and easily accessed only average of 2 meetings a week to keep on top of, so much more needed to reach same levels of sophistication for UK racing.
 
Outlander said:
markfinn markfinn don't despair in you quest for the holy grail completely, I’m guessing at the numbers here but say for example HK tote rake/takeout at the time was 12% and 20% exotic bets (I think now it’s 17.5% and 25%).
Say all Bentners methods produced a loss of 6% and he was being rebated 10%(all guesses)
Then transpose this to betfair in the modern day when there are 100% books and some people are lucky enough to pay just 2% commission on winning markets, Bentner must have been beating a 100% market quite comfortally, he had no chance of beating a 12% rake but theoretically he/ anyone that sophisticated can beat betfair markets, I’m sure many do. But the commission is the key, the commission will beat even a good punter, and if you become successful they will add more charges to diminish your chances . Of course HK racing has much less randomness than any other jurisdiction, 2 courses only set number of trainers and jockeys, 99% handicaps, full transparency, stewards that don’t stand any nonsense, it is infinitely straighter than U.K. or Irish racing, every interaction with a vet catalogued for every punter too see, every trial or workout detailed and recorded, multiple bleeders banned from racing immediately , body weights of every horse in every race recorded , all sectional and timing data much more accurate and easily accessed only average of 2 meetings a week to keep on top of, so much more needed to reach same levels of sophistication for UK racing.
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Thanks Good post - Safe to say I dont have that quest ,others but not that one.

Re Hong Kong yes its great we were on that during the Virus lockdown - think The Hare The Hare still posts his HK ratings - re randomness no way of ironing out that wrinkle other than backing the field.
 
Just regarding Hong Kong, which seems to have been a happy valley for so many, I wonder how long Beijing will tolerate racing there?

That Hong Kong Jockey Club must be one of the most powerful organisations in the world. I'm not sure where or how they'll get their money out now.
All their property - they did own just about everywhere on the goddam island - may have to be forfeited. Not sure how it will pan out.

As I understood the story about Bentner, he based himself in Phillippines for same advantageous reason, whereas, the Yugoslav seemed alright in OZ.

It's all too high-powered for me to comprehend.

In my opinion, everybody in Australasian gambling is a total dodgepot. They reign for a while then get the comeuppance. That's the way it strikes me, anyway, and I know nothing.
 
Pookie Pekan won nicely and was a class 3 race which continues to support my theory that it doesn't work well for low grade races because they are full of donkeys and monkeys. Even managed to grab a bit of 9.0 just before they lined up. Only one later to come if no non runners and that's in the 6.30 at Wolves.
 
Horsenberg said:
Pookie Pekan won nicely and was a class 3 race which continues to support my theory that it doesn't work well for low grade races because they are full of donkeys and monkeys. Even managed to grab a bit of 9.0 just before they lined up. Only one later to come if no non runners and that's in the 6.30 at Wolves.
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Well done H Horsenberg no nonsense winner, always looked good, will try not to take the thread off on a tangent in future.
 
Just done a count up on the results since I started a couple of weeks ago and so far it's 11 wins 27 losers and a whopping +62.74 BSP. The strike rate is 28.9%. It's not a lot of bets I accept but there wasn't any racing for 3 days. I don't expect it to carry on like this, I've been playing this game far too long to expect that, but it's rewarding cos as I said before it's taken a long time just to get it up and running. So in the way of all good betting systems.......... expect it to crash and burn spectacularly any time soon. :crazy:
 
Only one on the screen for today in the 6.30 so far and it's the fav'. Class 5 race too so nothing to get too excited about. I never thought I'd hear myself say this but I'm desperate for some non runners.
 
Last night's only runner got beat by a head and 11/10 looking expensive. Today opened with 3 bets, that went down to 2 mid morning, but is now back to 3 again. Bear in mind that this could change any time this afternoon but as things stand the 3 races are:-
1.45 Sabbathical (6 runners) and the other 2 races are the 4.08 and the 7.00.

Sabbathical will stand as a selection providing nothing changes but will confirm 10mins before start. One thing that occurred to me is that if a horse gets withdrawn at the start the selection might also get withdrawn from the system too, so if that happens I'll keep a separate score of them as default horses. As to whether they profit or not remains to be seen but hopefully the profits gathered from the ones that go off as normal will more than cover any residual losses.
 
Nothing worthy of interest this past couple of days. Had one at good odds Thursday morning but had disappeared by lunch time. Yesterday had a couple of relatively short odds ones but they were both in class 6 races on the sand so decided not to get involved and neither of them won so no regrets there. Thinking of holding back on the poor quality races and the fav's in the better quality races as I'm the kind of punter that likes to get the favourite beat and you can't do that by putting up fav's or opposing them in races that have no strength in depth. Couple lined up for later so will see how they go.
 
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