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    AR

Double Trouble

When reality kicks in don't you just know it? After an unbelieveable lucky first post the method trod water for the rest of the week - now we're down to the hard work and daily grind as the bank has almost run out of profit bar a couple of point, no bother though, this is a trial after all.
Not sure whether I am thankful that there are no bets today, maybe not tomorrow either by the looks of things.
Selection method is exactly the same as the first post with the simple introduction of a quick method to identify and sift the wheat from the chaff of league data which used to take ages. The new approach merely points me to the leagues and matches that I would have arrived at any way but with much less churning.
Onwards and hopefully upwards from here on.

J
 
That's the best thing about a trial John it gives you the time to fine tune your system as it goes along you have found a quicker way to high light your perspective bets in a fraction of the time I wouldn't be to put off by your early results you are still in profit every one is struggling at this stage in the season I still think this will still make a nice profit once the regular season kicks off don't blame you for taking a short break I'm crunching numbers and looking into new ideas for the new season myself in fact the only bet I have had recently was la galaxy which was posted on kevs excellent injury thread as always wish you all the best going forwards.
 
Hi tonyafc tonyafc , nail on head mate; bit of an uphill struggle last week! I had a bit of time this morning as there were very few leagues games (I prefer league games where at least there is some measurable form to work with) quite a few cup games dotted around the world, European matches and friendlies. I was thinking of a thread but maybe on here; Turning the Tables or suchlike, thinking outside the box, turning the method on it's head and going over 2.5 goals or permutations/variations on that theme, DNB/ WDW etc.
Hope to catch up with all you guys threads and ideas asap.

Best of luck in the meantime, John
 
I know i've stated no more statements.Anyone seen what that clown bercow has said about med treatment over a kid.
 
Well, I turned the data on it's head for yesterday's matches and took the extremes of the ones that I usually reject for Under 2.5 goals and lo and behold a raft of scores under 2.5. There were some real good over scores (3-0, 0-4 and 0-7) however 14 of the 15 remaining were all under 2.5 goals; strange indeed, the other game finished 1-2 cannot get my head around those results even now. I did change a filter (odds ranges) but apart from that no other differences to normal data manipulation.

I did happen across a method of assessing performance used in American 'sports' the Rating Performance Index (RPI) but I reckon I'd make far too much work for myself if I went down that route, it did look an interesting method though.

Will keep an eye on the two Brazilian Serie B games tonight to see what transpires. No bets as so few league games to choose from these past two evenings.


J
 
Stetson said:
I know i've stated no more statements.Anyone seen what that clown bercow has said about med treatment over a kid.
Click to expand...

Are you lost sunshine? I've no idea what JB has said about some young chap you refer too; I take it it was something contentious for you to vent your spleen on a footy thread? On a related note, I have met JB, just the once, I was opposing the Poll Tax introduction at the time and he had the guts to come into a rough-ish estate in the south and argue the case for the introduction on behalf of Thatcher's Gov't at the time; intelligent man and one of strong politcal conviction; didn't agree with him, still don't I suspect on a long list of right wing matters, but I do respect him. Absolute Tw*t for taking the old tart back though. :spiteful:


J
 
A right good job I didn't try to predict a CS double last night as the two S. American matches finished 1-4 and 3-1. Recent form for Mogi Mirim, rock bottom of Serie A have managed to turn over two other sides higher up the table than last nights opponents; they were 3-0 at HT to a pretty decent form side such as Macae just why they sit at the foot of the league table I don't know but they look the leagues form side at the moment.
 
I have trying to be FAR too clever trying to create a little ratings system along the lines of the RPI that I referred to in a post above - and what happens, well it confuses me even more and directly contradicts my Poisson system that's what!

I did a rating for the Peruvian Premera yesterday evening (Cajamarca Vs FBC Melgar, 0-0 HT, 0-0 FT), the Poisson figures did perhaps suggest a low scoring game and the Under 2.5 goal figure supported that but the ratings suggested a strong away victory. Today I did one for another Premera match Alianza Atl. - Alianza Lima; now Poisson says strong away win. U/O 2.5 goals says Over and new ratings are 2:1 in favour of the home side, so some big thinking to be done here.
I note that DNB is offered at 1.53 generally and Asian Hcap 0,+0.25 is 1.40 on Bet365. Are the Asian Hcap odds a useful guide to match results - having never taken any notice of them before that is?
A straight Lima win is available at 2.10 whilst the U/O odds are 1.75 Vs 2.05 clearly the bookies feel its not a walkover, in what is traditionally a league that averages over 2.5 goals/game.

J
 
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D djb38 thanks for the heads up on that. I'm a little bit clueless on the AH markets to be honest I was wondering; given the fact that the bookie has far more info at their disposal than us, if they had done the leg work for us? The main Q I am asking myself is, is there any info between markets such as I mentioned that could be used as a filter/pointer apart from the obvious that is?
I had a look at my earlier data and applied a weighting to the most recent data more so than season data as a whole (season is quite young in the Peruvian league) and this highlights the lowly position of home team and thus far; the less than overwelming performance of the away side, both have a value < 1.0, the away more so. Only a watching brief for now.

I do have the intention to study Home team odds that are above Evens to see if there might be an angle there, the fewer filters maybe the better perhaps?

J
 
D djb38 - sorry not really sure i can help on that one as i dont really bother with asians anymore, apparently there are indicators out there where by you check the line movements for the previous 24 hours but i could never reliably find the info i was looking for, the only thing i do check if i am backing a home team is to see whether the -0.5 price is different and it is quite often but I would say thecurlyone1 thecurlyone1 is the best person to ask.
I read this once and its supposedly a good indicator: "When we have a game between team A who stands in the top 3 in the table playing team B which stands in the bottom 3 and the handicap lines open for team A that is giving -1 handicap or less for eg -0.75 or -0.5 we can go safely with the underdog team with their +handicap. Only when team A has a handicap of -1.5 or more will we go for them as a genuine favourite. You see it doesnt make sense for the strong team to be given such a small handicap, bookies must know something that punters dont".
 
Great answer kev I had read the same about backing the dog when the odds on the favourite were 0.75 or 0.50 minus and curly is the resident expert on the Asian handicap bets not that sure myself as like you I couldn't get hold of the relevant data to make a definitive statement about the value of the bookies prices.
 
A 90th minute winner (0-1) for Lima, I reckon these S. American games need to be Live and tradeable as so many are going down to the wire. Would have suited the unders.

A massive blunder on my part fiddling with the spreadsheet and leaving wrong formulae in cells that really mattered! As it was, the Poisson figure came out low not high favouring the home side - got that wrong but the unders side of it was clearly in contrast to the incorrect figure it generated with incorrect calcs - must stop fiddling with the main sheet(s).

My thinking is/was with the AH are there any 'holes' or clues other than pure short odds which could lend a hand in determining match outcomes? Probably not I fear, but do any markets within the same matches actually clash/contradict or for that matter, reinforce bookies predictions? I usually assume with 12X that Ca. 4+/- a small % of any overound is tucked up with the favourite if it is odds on and the Ca. other 3-4% is divided, perhaps unequally, between the draw and away side, the same must be true of any market they price up. I did some calcs for the Peruvian match from Bet365's CS market earlier and it came out at 133% - I kid you not! The majority of the OR was wrapped up in the low scores as per I would imagine.

I am going to keep an eye on competitive match (League) odds to see if there is any value at all, at least with raw, unfiltered data, in a Home sides odds between 2.10 and 2.45. I did read some study some years ago on how a purely league points differentiated fixture could be priced up fairly using a linear regression equation and then compared with odds offered , I'll try and sort that one out in due course also. I will purchase the RFO too for a study next season as I reckon their version of RPI (the RFO indexes) could be worth a look, even if not used purely as intended, there is an online version I have noticed so maybe the data is open to capture and manipulation?

Thanks for the feedback guys re AH.

J
 
D djb38 whereas I am pretty sure bookies do leave very few 'holes' in their tissues, I do occasionally find some gems from one bookie priced up higher than other (had Stan James leave a runner at 9/2 yesterday whereas generally 4/1 or 7/2 was available - didn't win unfortunately! but the arb option was there), although I reckon the golden days of arbing are now long gone as their software is usually far quicker to react to anomalies than used to be the case, and certainly far quicker than my brain - no contest!. The Lima game (again) had the (eventual winners) away side priced up at 2.32 or close to that a couple of days (13/07) before the KO (15/07), I saw the odds dip to 1.91 as I was doing some calcs on the raw data (just) prior to KO and my thinking (rabid) is, did they get any late information that punters did not have access to and how often does this happen as it afforded a 20% profit.

mandkay mandkay , absolutely no problem at all it's an open discussion, I don't own this thread and I'm picking up lots of info which is making the old grey matter work a bit harder than it normally is asked to! Thanks!

John
 
mandkay mandkay thanks Kev, this is exactly the logic I was trying to get my brain around although you wouldn't generally find those two words in the same sentence of mine! :lol:
I see as per usual someone has thought of this first, nothing new under the sun as they say. Some good food for thought and encouragement though.
I would say that the example I gave re: Peru game that it probably wasn't an ideal one as either lack of liquidity, small amounts of money moving the price in or exchange lay odds not keeping pace with the bookies odds would be a critical factor. Not many people I would have thought would have much interest in this game apart from Llama herders/guinea pig breeders etc.
Will follow this up, thanks again.
 
I'll have a bash at these this evening: not sure about the doubles.

17/07/15 Arg Met B Almagro Vs Dep. Merlo 1X Under
17/07/15 Arg Met B Deportivo Espanol Vs Brown Adrogue X2
17/07/15 Arg Met B Fénix Vs Almirante Brown 1
17/07/15 Arg Met B Platense Vs Acassuso 1X Under
17/07/15 Arg Met B Sportivo Italiano Vs UAI Urquiza 1
17/07/15 Arg Met B Villa San Carlos Vs Barracas Central 1X
17/07/15 Arg Met B Atletico Atlanta Vs Flandria 1X Under
17/07/15 Arg Met B Comunicaciones Vs Colegiales 1X Under

John
 
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