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Double Trouble

mandkay said:
Ahh the scrubs are you from that neck of the woods Tom
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Ah I've been outed. That's why I'm a closet sooper hoops man. Last time I went to see them was the season I think they only lost two games at home. They were the two games I went to watch!! Was I a bock or what? Seems like an hundred years ago now....
 
If I ever had such a thing as better judgement then I have gone against it now and done a couple more CS doubles tonight from Brazil's Serie A and Argentina's Metro B. Bolstered by a couple of winners at Newmarket today and two up in a lucky 15 with two to go I thought I'd push the boat out once more this week.

Corinthians Vs Atletico PR with Fluminese Vs Cruzeiro
CS's covered:
0-0 0-0
0-0 1-0
0-0 1-1
1-0 0-0
1-1 0-0
1-0 1-0
1-1 1-0
1-1 1-1
and a 5.5pt cover bet on the U2.5 goals

and
Deportivo Armenio Vs Barracas Central with Villa San Carlos Vs Deportivo Riestra
CS's covered:
0-0 0-0
0-0 1-0
0-0 1-1
0-1 0-0
1-1 0-0
1-1 1-0
0-1 1-1
1-1 1-1
the cover bet is 6.5pts
all at Bet365
added a further CS double into each set with slight favourtism to the Corinthians from Serie A in the first pairings and the Barracas from Metro B from the second.

John
 
Sods Law well and truly alive and kicking; Deportivo (league Position 18th of 22 before this game) manage to overturn 6th in the table Barracas 1-0 (HT 0-0). Villa San Carlos finished 1-1 (HT 1-0) with a very late goal in my favour so six of one and half a dozen of the other with that pairing. All stake money on that pair returned as both matches finished under 2.5 goals.

John
 
All monies returned in the second match as well Corinthians (HT 1-0) Won 2-0 and Fluminense won 1-0 after being 0-0 at HT. There may be a HT or HT/FT angle here if the odds are favourable but at the moment it doesn't seem as though the method is accurate enough in it's current form to get the big wins from the leagues I have looked at so far. I really want to get something sorted before the Euro season begins and try to make a real go of this, I suspect that it will be a combination of factors that is letting it down at the moment. I'll have a look later to see what weekend matches there are, there will be some top league South American action I'm sure.
 
Not a bad showing John money back is no disgrace earlier days and not the easiest of leagues have you been using this for a while or is this a new
venture? Have you had much joy in the euro leagues .As always I wish you continued good fortune.
 
I think you're being a tad harsh on yourself, you've managed to pick unders on all 4 games it was just unfortunate that they didnt align with your correct scores, perhaps you could do just an unders double on both with maybe a small dabble on the 4 team acca?
 
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Had a funeral to attend today so not much time to do any assessments. The games tonight/early hours do not appear to have the ideal profile but I'll give a mention to any I can sort quickly out a bit later.
 
tonyafc tonyafc Hi Tony; I only really put the CS doubles together this week although I have experimented with them combining football with other sports and is still very much a work in progress. I've had the Poission stuff since about 2003 but work commitments then meant everything got shelved until earlier on this year as I was concentrating on finding a portfolio of horse racing systems (still trying) a search for racebase brought me here where I recognised you guys 'nicks' from the old ukbt.

Re: Europe yes, had a dabble with stuff as diverse as Bundesliga 3, all the Scandinavian leagues, Estonia , Egypt, Ireland (a bit shaky), Spanish Segunda etc.but missed the majority of the main leagues , I hope to 'have a bash' this coming season. I had to try to find something as my circumstances changed drastically some while ago, and quite frankly, I am looking for that niche, a unique area of expertise, that maybe no one else has developed yet (fat chance!) with which I could possibly find an edge to football betting and make some additional income if possible I am quite risk adverse so it'll be a low risk:reward ratio - if it comes good that is.

mandkay mandkay, thanks, it seems another uphill struggle at the moment! I didn't think that the profits would come immediately, I would have liked a couple of wins under the belt by now however, I have put on a few daft exotics now and it's still in profit due mainly to that first win and staking the U 2.5 which has saved me a few times, it's quite a useful bet for the coward! :lol:
The unders doubles I have been doing for a few months on and off, overall I would have thought that I was a bit up as one part of the method with very low output values tends to highlight opportunities for the home side which I used my old Bookies R Bust spreadsheet with although I have made plenty of my own up since with even weirder combinations mixing different sports. I think that I will look at over 2.5 goals also or a combo involving those as well when I get the time too, it could be a useful weapon in the armoury.

J
 
Thanks for your reply John good stuff as for looking for a niche market I think you are spot on the only value left in football these days tends to lay in the over looked markets so your going in the right direction as for saying your insurance bets are cowardly not true
mate there is nothing wrong with wanting to protect your bank in fact it is often the best way to stay in the game long enough to either play for the entire season or reach your pre decided profit target and get out.looking forwards to more of these.
 
I have had a look at the matches tonight and tomorrow at most look at bit dodgy as I have to dabble back into S. American leagues, but since I have crunched a few numbers now I feel duty bound to cover them - just in case one comes good.
I'll cover just the one double; I am not entirely sure about it due to conflicting values for Win potential and U/O 2.5 goals - more later.

10/07/15 Argentina Metro B: Colegiales Vs Deportivo Español with Argentina Primera: Arsenal Sarandi Vs Gimnasia

0-0 0-0
0-0 1-0
0-0 1-1
0-0 0-1
1-0 0-0
1-1 0-0
1-0 0-1
1-1 1-1
Sticking with the eight doubles at the usual stakes (lol) and a 6.5pt Saver.
 
Just kicked off in the Sarandi match.
I discounted a few matches on the grounds that my calculated Fair Odds (CFO's) were out of kilter with the bookies odds; now that could be a bluff on the part of the bookies but trying to second guess them is a bit of a tall order for me.
This is what I have:
Arg Prem Estudiantes Vs San Martín de San Juan . Bookies odds first , 1.50 : 2.17 CFO
Arg Met B: Flandria Vs Comunicaciones Bookies 1.50 : 1.48 my odds etc.
Brazil Serie B: B Macaé Vs Paysandu 1.44 : 1.69
Brazil Serie B: Ceará Vs Criciúma 1.70 : 1.91
Brazil Serie B: Atlético GO Vs Mogi Mirim 1.47 : 1.63
some calculated figures suggest that U 2.5 is not as clear cut; but here I am merely going on my raw figures whereas the bookies have a lot more info at their disposal.

The P figures for the Sarandi match are high for a home team which suggest an Away win and one that could be above the CS predictions; Macaé Vs Paysandu is middling on P figures although the stats online suggest they may be much stronger than the away team.
Collegiales have a fairly high P figure also so I am hoping that they do not go mad tomorrow.

tonyafc tonyafc , cheers Tony, I think we all know how difficult and frustrating this lark can get!

J
 
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Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy, magnier made it work through permutations albeit on the gee gees,so why not you or FS with computated weightings on varied co-ordinated perms.Challenging yes ? Mundane and boring number crunching,yes ? Rewards significant if bets placed in the appropriate places.I spread mine around even if it means taking the lowest odds bookie just so i don't get banned/restricted from various bookie sites.
 
Stetson Stetson , it's sure easy to get a little confused with the bet placement too! I have a method with quads in four sets of four which is rather challenging. For now I'll plug on a way and see what transpires. I have one double from last nights seven running on this afternoon and I'm now looking at another strategy and some formative ratings/selection criteria. No problem with bookie restrictions on my stakes and winnings (when I get them).

Poor old A. Sarandi, they're really having a troubled time this season they allowed a 90th minute goal in this morning, their luck seems to have deserted them at the moment. I could have done with the 0-0 as there were more options for a win for this afternoons paired match.
 
To level stakes backing only under 2.5 goals on each match singly the matches since I began here have made a small profit 3.68 pts this week. I didn't put all of the bets up in fact, some didn't get past the initial analysis as I weeded some out but nonetheless it's a useful sum in a week. Some matches kicked off at the same time so the actual total will be skewed - looking for a way around this. Points quoted come from matches taken to secondary analysis and not necessarily all recorded in this thread as you will note from my previous posts.
Compounding from an initial 10 point bank the sum stands at 4.48 pts, all U2.5 goal odds taken from Bet365 or BetVictor at the time of study.

I have placed Colegiales in a double with Haras El Hodood (Egyptian Prem).
J
 
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I will be working out the U 2,5 goal doubles as soon as I can, I reckon that they should show a reasonable profit over the week.
Stroke of good fortune with Colegiales; scoring an equaliser in the 92nd minute (1-1 FT), absolutely unbelievable how many goals have gone in in the dying seconds of quite a few of these games this week (and last month or so when I was trialing U 2.5 doubles offline). I wouldn't want to depend on that too often , but still as long as they stay under 2.5 maybe this tack will be productive?


J
 
If I have worked out the doubles correctly on matches covered thus far I have a disappointing 6 pts something as four doubles contained one score over 2.5 goals which is a bit of a pain. I suppose that backing both singles and doubles is an option although it could get a tad expensive (not on my stakes) if both lose and that would have yielded about 12 pts this week, far too early to say if these results will hold though as I reckon I'm in a purple patch.
I am taking a look at a preliminary screening method, in fact, two plus a secondary filtering stage before they get near a Poission calculation, took a bit long today but if I organise myself well (no chance of that!) then it may cut down on the flaffling about a bit.
I had a good look at the J League matches this morning, one possible was ok and some from Columbia and Ecuador (yet to play) but I'll stick to the tried and tested for now whilst collating more data before we start proper football in earnest.
I have two this evening; one of the pairs is a tad high but we'll see as I am only playing pennies as you guys will know.

Argentine Primera
Nueva Chicago Vs Colon
Newells Old Boys v Racing Club as:
0-0 0-0
0-0 1-0
0-0 1-1
1-0 0-0
1-0 0-1
1-0 1-1
1-1 1-1
Cover costs 6.5 pts

Argentina Metro B
Deportivo Riestra Vs Platense
UAI Urquiza Vs Fenix as:
0-0 0-0
0-0 1-0
0-0 1-0
1-0 0-0
1-0 1-1
1-0 1-0
1-1 1-1
cover is 6 pts

J
 
Second double a loser this time around, six+ minutes of added on time and the match goes over 2.5 goals no excuses though; I've had Egyptian Prem games go 8+ minutes over god only knows what causes that, great when you're hoping for a goal but irksome when you're not. One game to run just kicked off, first game finished 0-0 so we have a chance here, on paper at least!


J
 
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