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Double Trouble

Scooter_Boy

Scooter_Boy

Mare
Using Poission distribution I have decided to post an ongoing series of bets when I am able. I'll set out the method quickly:
The aim is to combine games that I feel have a low scoring element to them although I have not used the method for Correct scores before as in this trial.

I'll combine the correct scores in doubles; using the lowest combos and therafter, aim to cover those I don't bet with an Under 2.5 goals double of the two sides simply to regain the stake should a rogue result occur.

I have today covered Lahti Vs SJK, and KTP Vs RoPs in the Finish Veikausliga in the following combos (pairs) and apologies for any poor formating :
0-0 0-0, 0-0 0-1, 0-0 1-1, 1-0 0-0, 1-0 0-1, 1-0 1-1 and 1-1 1-1. Seven cross doubles all 1pt each equally divided cos' on small stakes it's not worth the effort to dutch them. I have covered the 0-0 1-0, 0-1 0-0, 0-1 1-0, 2-0 0-0, 0-0 2-0, 2-0 2-0 and 0-2 0-2 with a 5pt stake at Bet Victor of an Under 2.5 goals double.

Of course any over 2.5 goals will blow both sets of bets however the profit on the lowest bet if successful is 41.25 pts. (then less stakes where appropriate) and if the games finish with any of the first set of scores then both bets win; I think the 5pt bet at 1.444 and 1.80 pays out 13.9pts - 8.9pts of profit to cover the CS stakes.

I'm not au fait with Finnish footy to be honest but these two are merely a toe in the water. 12pts bet sounds a lot but in essence it can be done for as little as £1.20p in 10p bets including the 5pts on the U2.5 goals double.

Mad? yes probably. Viable? We'll see. The strike rate doesn't need to be much over 25% to break even.


Both games just kicked off.
 
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Good luck with these scooter boy I hope you have better luck than me the Scandinavian leagues have proved very hard to predict so much so that I have decided to take a break until the new season kicks off having said all that I will watch your thread with interest.
 
Well done Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy
Like the idea and a good way to maximise profits from a selected double and a double bubble in this case. Can you not give yourself some insurance on the o2.5 by sticking the games in an acca with other games that kick off later?
 
To all, thanks for the comments. I have fluked the first bet it has to be said. Looking back a long way I reckon I did start to compile this method to predict Correct Scores (CS) this was back in 2005 and thereafter I was working such long hours 7 days a week/12+ hour shifts etc. that it all got dropped until I happened across an article with the same method somewhere on the net this year. I have some data - but not a lot, for Under 2.5 goals which I what I have been doing so far and that I could reinterpret (I presume).
I have hundreds of spreadsheets with similar ideas for trebles and quads etc. that look to have come to nothing (too complicated or odds not working out). I lost lots of data with three hard drive failures in a little over a week some years ago (1 dodgy disc and a faulty PSU took out the other two the culprit) and threw out lots of old notebooks in a clear up so I am starting afresh here.

I had forgotten all about the first post curse mandkay! As I say, probably a little bit lucky as I had so few matches to choose from and little research on any sides. The bet returned 50.2 pts profit though so the risk/reward ratio is quite kind. I reckon that it would make profits with just two winning doubles from 10 providing 4 say are All Stakes Returned (ASR) with the Under 2.5 goals double and can then easily absorb 4 complete losses as on the lowest combination odds (6.50 X 6.50) 2 wins will return 96.5 pts profit less 48 complete losses giving 48pts or so from the 10 possible bets. I do reckon that there will not be bucketfuls of bets as I prefer slow and sure anyway, best to try to cherry-pick I think, we'll see as we go along.

In my haste to avoid after timing I omitted to say that I begin from a 200 point bank, at my stakes that is 10p doubles and a 50p Under 2.5 goals double saver/cover bet. Big hitter on board........!

Tom: thanks for the heads up with the formatting I will check that out. I'll use cell referencing as then it'll take 30 seconds to cut and paste if they forum permits cut and paste spreadsheet tables. The odds you quote look like much better odds than I received from Betfair (6.50 X 8.50). Yes, the 1-0 Lahti and 0-0 RoPS was the winning double from the 7 I place with Betfair Multis. It's a little unfair as they cut the odds on offer further when combined (from recollect it was 6.80 and 8.80 prior to combining) and then have the temerity to take another 5% on top for any winning bets. I am not with Betway either; do they have a good rep?

djb38; yes I have been using the method (actually system and method combined as a lot of discretion is required) for under 2.5 goal doubles, staggering the KO times enables possible hedging of course - and I do like risk adverse betting.

Tony and footysystems: thanks very much guys. I had a feeling that the Scandinavian leagues could be a bit tricky and I only have some limited data from bets on a few sides to compare yesterday bet with. The biggest concern is having to take the data 'as read' and hope and pray that both first choice squads are out.

I'll have to fathom what this @ thing is too, as I don't frequent many forums any more and that's a newbie thing to an old guy I am playing catch up here! Lol
All the best, John
 
:text-goodpost: Fluke or no fluke, it sounds like you've earned whatever luck you get.

The @ is to alert a person to your post in the thread you're in. If you put their first letter after the @ a little drop down box should give you a selection of all the users starting with that letter Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy
 
I have entered a CS double (seven of them) at Betfair with sides from Brazilian Serie B and the U2.5 goals double at Bet365 for a bit of late night interest.
Mogi Mirim Vs Clube Nautico and Atletico GO Vs ABC in the manner described previously just for the record.

I think that the better bets might be tomorrow and Thursday though with teams from Argentina's Premier B Nacional and a couple of other leagues.

John
 
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No joy with last nights pair a 2-1 and 1-2 scoreline the outcome no complaints even though Nautico had a player sent off at 1-1 the bet would have gone down anyhow. Not as bad as Brazil getting a 90th minute winner against Peru a couple of weeks back. I'll take a look at possibles for this evening later on today.

John
 
I have a couple for tonight. There is, perhaps not surprisingly, not much liquidity in the markets at Betfair for these lower league sides and it was easier to put these on at Bet365 and the odds were no real difference especially at these stakes. Usual 10p doubles but an extra point on the U2.5 doubles as the odds were so low. In fact there were four or five pairs but keeping it as simple as possible whilst collating this new data.

Argentina Premier B Metro
Fenix V Deportivo Merlo and Comunicaciones V Atlanta as:
0-0, 0-0
0-0 0-1
0-0 1-1
1-0 0-0
1-0 0-1
1-1 0-0
1-1 1-1
With a cover /Saver on U2.5 goals of 6.5pts @ 2.08 at Bet Victor

Argentina Premier B Nacional
Boca Unidos V Instituto and Estudiantes V Indepenediente as:
0-0 0-0
0-0 1-0
0-0 1-1
1-0 0-0
1-0 1-0
1-1 0-0
1-1 1-1
With a Cover/Saver bet on U2.5 goals of 6pts @ 2.61 at Bet Victor

John
 
Good luck with these John nice to see a different country on here never ceases to surprise me about the knowledge shown in some of these niche markets by the members on this site dj saints used to go all over the globe with his dc bets now you're following suit if you have half the results that he had you will turn a nice profit.
 
Scooter_Boy Scooter_Boy

My brother swears by this bet and does it in a lucky 15 he often gets one up.. As i said i have a system similar with CS looking forward to seeing what happens and good to have new bloody in the footy part of the forum... Bring on the new season
 
Thanks guys, first bet almost done for, I could do with Fenix scoring again as I covered the over 2.5 goal market with just two points (so little outlay for more safety) after I realised that Atlanta had 10 overs games and 12 overs compared with Comms's 6 over to 16 under which I thought might just be ok - seems not though! The low SR required for decent profits is fall back - if I can get another one that is. These two leagues are amongst the lowest scoring in the world I think - apart from tonight that is! Never mind I'll still be using profit and theres 20 pts to go after that. I had a nice lucky 15 with quite big odds come in last week so I put £20 aside for this. It is very time consuming getting some figures for CS through my sheets, I noticed tonyafc tonyafc that you web scraped in part for one of your methods. The odds are very good as long as one can get a win onboard, I am looking for a complimentary rating to compare the Poission more as this transition from U 2.5 to CS could do with a better foundation it appears.
 
tonyafc tonyafc thanks Tony, I think that I delved a bit too deep into regional football with last nights picks, I cannot help thinking that Metropolitan footy in Argentina is possibly not up to the standard of fourth tier English let alone third tier that I perceived it to be. I tested the average goals for the league and it's standard deviation and it came out low, so last night was a bit of an eye opener! :( I may have been a little unlucky because six of the twelve games that I rated yesterday would have been winners, so in effect my selection from the processed data looks to need revision as well as a more robust rating method perhaps if last nights results are anything to go by. There are more games in the same league this evening' I'll probably "go back in for more punishment" not to be disheartened as it's early days yet.

footysystems footysystems will look forward to your posts when we begin 'proper' footy in a little while, I have had a little peek at yours and Tony's threads so will follow you both with much interest, good luck guys.

John
 
You were a shade unlucky last night John agree after taking a quick look at the leagues you were on last night I would have favoured unders and your bets were statistactly sound but the odd freak result has done the best of us in the past still as you say your playing with profit and it's a sound system I think this will yield you a nice profit over all well done and good luck going forward.
 
*tom* said:
Well that's better than the Aussie leagues that I've seen likened to Sunday footie at the Scrubs!
Click to expand...
Ahh the scrubs are you from that neck of the woods Tom, i grew up a good goal kick away from there, the pitches were unbelievable, one was on a huge slope, you could easily rack up 10 goals playing down hill in the first half then defend like hell for the second for the inevitable onslaught!
 
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