paulb164
Colt
Just thought that with the rising interest in football on this forum, and also to invite some of the forumites' to contribute some of their ideas and strategies they use to make some money out of it... and with the European season just starting, I thought I'd start (yet another) thread. So, my initial contribution is about the mechanics of a football game and what I expect/usually happens that govern a lot of my in-play betting points (as well as my football automations). A lot of it is based around broad averages across the world's domestic leagues.
Kick off
10 mins into game - no expectation of anything for this period (I usually have an over 0.5 goal bot kick in around 10 mins in when the odds reach 1.1, and then adds more bets at later intervals as the odds rise).
10-25 mins into the game - on average, first goals are scored around 18 mins into the game (I have another bot that puts bets on the O 1.5 market when the odds reach 1.4, which is generally around 10-15 mins into the game depending on the game itself to preempt that 1st goal)
40 mins (i.e. 5 mins before HT - some teams take their foot off the pedal in the run up to HT (and often FT as well), and it can often be advantageous to bet on goals for that period - Kent Gill has a current thread going that exploits exactly that possibility
HT - if I want to do the Lay-the-Draw system, then this is the point I enter, but only if the game has a 0-0 scoreline and goal potential
45-60 mins into game - no expectation of anything for this period
60-70 mins into game - this is usually about the time managers make substitutions and try to change the game. 0-0 games at this point definitely get an O 0.5 goals bet, as well as a O 0.5/1.5 combo bet if the goal potential is good, and with 20+ mins still left in the game to get that result.
80 mins-game end - tired legs/teams pushing/teams down to 10 men etc... all good reasons to make an assessment on whether any more goals might come, and bet accordingly with great odds
For the most part, my football is based on goals - I might bet on a team to win, but not because I think that is the best team, but because the goal analysis of the match tell me so. Peter Webb (from BetAngel) has a good post on Youtube all about how goal prediction is absolutely key to football betting success - well worth watching -
Webb Youtube link
Kick off
10 mins into game - no expectation of anything for this period (I usually have an over 0.5 goal bot kick in around 10 mins in when the odds reach 1.1, and then adds more bets at later intervals as the odds rise).
10-25 mins into the game - on average, first goals are scored around 18 mins into the game (I have another bot that puts bets on the O 1.5 market when the odds reach 1.4, which is generally around 10-15 mins into the game depending on the game itself to preempt that 1st goal)
40 mins (i.e. 5 mins before HT - some teams take their foot off the pedal in the run up to HT (and often FT as well), and it can often be advantageous to bet on goals for that period - Kent Gill has a current thread going that exploits exactly that possibility
HT - if I want to do the Lay-the-Draw system, then this is the point I enter, but only if the game has a 0-0 scoreline and goal potential
45-60 mins into game - no expectation of anything for this period
60-70 mins into game - this is usually about the time managers make substitutions and try to change the game. 0-0 games at this point definitely get an O 0.5 goals bet, as well as a O 0.5/1.5 combo bet if the goal potential is good, and with 20+ mins still left in the game to get that result.
80 mins-game end - tired legs/teams pushing/teams down to 10 men etc... all good reasons to make an assessment on whether any more goals might come, and bet accordingly with great odds
For the most part, my football is based on goals - I might bet on a team to win, but not because I think that is the best team, but because the goal analysis of the match tell me so. Peter Webb (from BetAngel) has a good post on Youtube all about how goal prediction is absolutely key to football betting success - well worth watching -
Webb Youtube link