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Discussion points on Football betting strategy...

paulb164

Colt
Just thought that with the rising interest in football on this forum, and also to invite some of the forumites' to contribute some of their ideas and strategies they use to make some money out of it... and with the European season just starting, I thought I'd start (yet another) thread. So, my initial contribution is about the mechanics of a football game and what I expect/usually happens that govern a lot of my in-play betting points (as well as my football automations). A lot of it is based around broad averages across the world's domestic leagues.

Kick off
10 mins into game - no expectation of anything for this period (I usually have an over 0.5 goal bot kick in around 10 mins in when the odds reach 1.1, and then adds more bets at later intervals as the odds rise).
10-25 mins into the game - on average, first goals are scored around 18 mins into the game (I have another bot that puts bets on the O 1.5 market when the odds reach 1.4, which is generally around 10-15 mins into the game depending on the game itself to preempt that 1st goal)
40 mins (i.e. 5 mins before HT - some teams take their foot off the pedal in the run up to HT (and often FT as well), and it can often be advantageous to bet on goals for that period - Kent Gill Kent Gill has a current thread going that exploits exactly that possibility
HT - if I want to do the Lay-the-Draw system, then this is the point I enter, but only if the game has a 0-0 scoreline and goal potential
45-60 mins into game - no expectation of anything for this period
60-70 mins into game - this is usually about the time managers make substitutions and try to change the game. 0-0 games at this point definitely get an O 0.5 goals bet, as well as a O 0.5/1.5 combo bet if the goal potential is good, and with 20+ mins still left in the game to get that result.
80 mins-game end - tired legs/teams pushing/teams down to 10 men etc... all good reasons to make an assessment on whether any more goals might come, and bet accordingly with great odds

For the most part, my football is based on goals - I might bet on a team to win, but not because I think that is the best team, but because the goal analysis of the match tell me so. Peter Webb (from BetAngel) has a good post on Youtube all about how goal prediction is absolutely key to football betting success - well worth watching -

Webb Youtube link
 

Kent Gill

Filly
Good post Paul and thanks for the mention.

I missed 2 yesterday which were at great odds, Barcelona were 0-1 behind and a odds on any other home win over (eg 4-1 or more) were at 14, darn it, it finished 5-2.

And in Greece Athens v other team (can’t remember name) was 0-0 at 65 mins and home team had a player sent off but were still huge favourites, odds were 18 odd on BTTS, finished 1-2.

One thing I am guilty of is a lack of concentration on more than 1 strategy at a time. Something I need to improve, as with so many games on at once, it’s not a 1 strategy fits all approach that’s needed.
 
Hi paulb164 paulb164 I'm solely a simply single pre match bettor but I do spend a lot of time on websites and read reports etc so put the hours in . I try to find teams that are playing well but just not getting the luck in running they usually come good soon .

Every body seems to do the overs as I suppose its human nature to want interest the whole 90 mins but surely with the amount of bets the layers take they price accordingly
The value must be in the unders if you have the nerve
Very often two attacking team cancel each other out and the expected goals do not materialize
Good posts paulb164 paulb164 thanks for your input its always good to read
 

paulb164

Colt
Hi paulb164 paulb164 I'm solely a simply single pre match bettor but I do spend a lot of time on websites and read reports etc so put the hours in . I try to find teams that are playing well but just not getting the luck in running they usually come good soon .

Every body seems to do the overs as I suppose its human nature to want interest the whole 90 mins but surely with the amount of bets the layers take they price accordingly
The value must be in the unders if you have the nerve
Very often two attacking team cancel each other out and the expected goals do not materialize
Good posts paulb164 paulb164 thanks for your input its always good to read
I actually do play the unders as well, but that's strictly a decision I make before the game as the odds drop over the game time (presumably if you have picked right of course). I do have an automation that places a bet on the under 3.5 goal market if I think it has a good chance of a low score, and it puts another bet on in play if a goal is scored/odds rise - that is a decent earner for me... more so than the U 2.5.
I only play the unders markets for low-scoring leagues though (Brasil A, Argentina Supaliga, Portugal Segunda, Russia Premier are good for this). I really do believe the league's average through the season is the first indicator before I start considering which games are good for the unders markets. And the season has to be at least 1/3 into itself before I take the stats seriously.
 

paulb164

Colt
For instance, there's a good game on tonight in the Brasil Serie B - CRB v Bragantino. The league itself averages only 2.07 goals per game and I think it has 1-1 written all over it. The strongest of the 2 teams (Bragantino) is both miserly at the back and has scored less than a goal a game away from home. That would be a game I'd put a straight pre-game U 2.5 goal bet, and my U 3.5 in-play multiplying bot bet as well (which usually covers the U 2.5 bet should it dip over 2 goals). I might even put an U 1.5 goals 1st half bet on as well ! Lots of different likelyhoods and various levels of risk/outcome all based on the same goal analysis.
 

paulb164

Colt
LOL - Bragantino was 7:4 goals scored/conceded away from home from their 9 away games so far this season, so a little over a goal for the whole game was the expectation - so of course it finished 0:3 !

I've mentioned before elsewhere that I like Soccervista as a football data source, and they have a good league evaluation which is pretty good at helping to make decisions on games. It's at the top of each league listing, and goes from;

Group 1Keep betting on favourites and you will be successful in these leagues :)
Group 2Favourites usually win.
Group 3Average leagues for betting.
Group 4Bet very carefuly here. Outsiders winning lot of games.
Group 5OMG leagues. Money play football here? :) If you want to bet do not bet on favourites, but choose outsiders.

It's also listed in full here; Soccer leagues ordered by betting index

I have found it to be a very good indicator to how likely a match prediction or expectation can be. The CRB v Bragantino game was in a league which was rated 'Bet carefully here. Outsiders winning lot of games', so I'm not entirely surprised that the game didn't finish according to expectations. For followers of my O 2.5 goal thread that uses the Chinese Super League, that is rated by Soccervista as 'Favourites usually win', and has resulted in a lot of successful bets as a result. I will almost always only bet within leagues that are 'Average leagues for betting' at worst (i.e. only leagues within groups 1-3 from the above table).

Luckily for me, I did bet on the game as I said in my last post here, and the cover bets offset the losing U 2.5 goal bet meant that I just about broke even for that game !
 

AGBolt

Newbie
Learned loads from this thread, 8 fold U4.5/ U3.5 acca about to come in with low scoring teams from SV. Cheers
 

goalman

Yearling
at the moment if you do Ladbrokes online you get your money back as free bet if one selection lets you down (max £10 stake) 5 fold at least.

It only applies to your 1st bet of the day though and you have to have at least 5 selections. Works for BTTS 5 fold.
 

paulb164

Colt
at the moment if you do Ladbrokes online you get your money back as free bet if one selection lets you down (max £10 stake) 5 fold at least.

It only applies to your 1st bet of the day though and you have to have at least 5 selections. Works for BTTS 5 fold.
there's a few threads on here (of varying success) for BTTS - it's a good market to play with most odds around evens, but it does appear to be difficult to predict... certainly if doing as a multiple
 
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