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Daily ramblings and choices

Knocklayde finished 5th of 7. King Golan, won on his fifth nv hcp chase attempt, carrying 10st.

There is a nv hcp hurdle today but it was previously ran as a handicap hurdle.
 
Yesterday's nv hcp hurdle was won by Come on Charlie, who was taking part in his first such race and was partnered by Richard Johnson.
 
In recent years, both Ballyoptic and Shelford have won the 4:45 on their first handicap hurdle start. Only Point of Principle and Dans Le Vent are doing so today.
 
There has only been one fto chaser win today's 2:30 in the last 4 runnings, and of the 3 experienced runners over fences in today's race, I feel, Tikkinthebox (10/1), can finish in the top 3. Of the first timers, East Indies (28/1), is on a reasonable opening chasing mark.
 
Another experienced' chaser, Cap Du Nord, finished 2nd in Sunday's race at 20/1.

3:00 Worcester has been won in the three previous years by experienced nv chasers (which was also their first victory over fences), while fto's won the two renewals prior. 7 line up on Weds, two of which have already won over fences (Baden, Allelu Alleluia). Of the remaining that have had chase experience, Overland Flyer, would by my preference but at 4/1 offers little in the way of value. However, I feel an ew punt on outsider, Oh Land Abloom, at 28/1, would appeal more.
 
Allelu Alleluia won the 3:00. Trend out of the window! Oh Land Abloom steamed into an sp of 9/1.

Thurs sees a nv hcp chase at 2:55. The 2013 winner was a first time out chaser and the 2015 victor won on his first nv hcp chase attempt. Six line up. 2017 was the first time the race became a nv limited handicap and all runners this year are first time over fences. Hard to make a selection for the race, but Big Penny (14/1) could be on a decent opening chase mark compared to his hurdle ability.
 
Saturday's 2:25 hcp nv chase was previously ran as a nv chase. Ten are due to contest this and there are only 4 who are yet to race as hcp nv chasers. What A Game last ran in a seller, which puts me off, Left Back and St Quinton are both returning after 500+ days off, which puts me off, and I'm not entirely keen on top weight, Graystown (8/1), who probably doesn't have any right being there seeing as a number in the field have already won over fences.

I like the profile of Bocasien Debois (8/1), who will be 2nd run after wind surgery and 1st time cheek pieces, so I imagine there may be some improvement there.

Should Graystown become available around 12/1, i'd be interested ew.
 
Bocasien Debois 2nd. I was interested to see how Graystown perform, but he was a NR. St Quinton placed.

There are ten in today's 3:35 and five are first time chasers. I could find two previous runnings of this race and both were won by first time nv hcp chasers, one of whom were first time chasers. Polydora (13/2) will be my selection. I'm hoping that Dicky Johnson will coax the mare to victory.

As a side note, winning trainers have both been female and Rebecca Curtis has the top weight.
 
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Polydora came 3rd. It was a tricast of first time chasers.

Changing tack slightly, starting with Monday's 2:05. Two of the seven strong field are first time nv hcp chasers; Emerald Chieftan (8/1) and Callthebarman (6/1). The latter's trainer won one of these events last week when bringing one over from Ireland. EW saver with GC.
 
Back in the winner's enclosure with Callthebarman.

Three races on Tues.
1:35 - 8 of the ten runners are first time chasers. Sauvignon (5/1), Cranbrook Causeway (20/1ew) & will include Shroughmore Lass in a tricast.
1:45 - 2 of the ten runners are first time chasers. Two others have only ran in a beginner chase and 3 more are taking part in their first nv hcp chase. Garrane(12/1ew) & will include Miles To Milan and Potters Approach in a tricast.
2:10 - 5 of the nine runners are first time chasers and there is a further runner to be considered who has ran in only a beginners chase. Rockalzaro(13/2), Blackjacktennesee(25/1ew) & will include Cuddles Mcgraw in a tricast.
 
Yesterday there were two small field nv hcp chases. The first was won by a fto chaser and the other by a first time out nv hcp chaser.

Today sees a nv hcp hurdle. Conditional jockeys, although last years was on by a first time nv hcp'er. Nine of the 12 strong field are yet to compete in such a race. The Tangler Barry(10/1), Mac Cennetig(33/1) and Ballyhome for the tricast (y)
 
Both horses I backed were well in the race for much of it, but Ballyhome brought it home. The markets are extremely fluid in these types of races.

1:15 - Last year's winner was a first time out nv hcp hurdler, at 16/1. Only two of the 14 strong field have done so this year. Atomic Rumble(7/1), while Templepark and Chequered View will be added for the tricast.

The race that follows on from that is a nv hcp chase and it was won last year by a first time out nv hcp chaser. Four are first time to do so today. Two are first time chasers (as last year) and that, I believe, is where the value lies. Larry(15/2) and Inaminna(16/1EW).
 
No luck with yesterday's races.

Carlisle 1:30 - Last year was won by a first time nv hcp chaser. Only one has ever ran in such a race, 10 of 14 are first time over fences. Turning to statistics, to lend more of a clue, Western Rules(16/1ew), with Coningsby and Risk And Roll for the tricast.
 
1:15 Kemp - last years was won by a first timer. This year half the field are first time over fences. I'll be going into the race with King Vince(14/1ew).
 
King Vince did not finish the race. Top weight, fav, first time over fences won. Was a PtP winner. Looks like I may have to abandon HRB for these races.
 
Nv hcp hurdle at 1:15. Last year was won by a first timer, although they had previous hcp hurdle experience. I've picked out Red Hot Chilli, who's 50/1 with bet365 for 4 places and 33/1 for 5.
 
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